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NBA Coverage: Breaking Down The Dallas Disappointment

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When it comes to disappointments, the Dallas Mavericks have gotten off the hook when it comes to media pressure this season. All of the oxygen in the room has been sucked up by the Los Angeles Lakers. Then you can add in that Dallas has been further submerged by the success of the other two teams in the Lone Star State. San Antonio just keeps churning out wins, while Houston is the only NBA team to have already exceeded its preseason Las Vegas win projection.

Trade deadline talk took up more airtime, though the 3 PM ET deadline passed today without major incident. Finally let’s add in the fact that Dirk Nowitzki missed games in the early part of the season, so the Mavericks were tacitly off a lot of radars to begin with. Nonetheless, Dirk’s been back since Christmas, and the Mavs are still on the outside looking in the Western Conference playoff picture, with a 24-29 record. Therefore, TheSportsNotebook’s NBA coverage today hones on what the problem is in Big D and whether there’s still time to turn it around and at least squeak out the #8 seed.

When you look at Dallas’ complete body of work the first thing that has to jump out is how bad the rebounding is. The Mavericks rank 27th in the league in rebound rate. The defense has also declined, ranking 20th in efficiency. This isn’t a franchise with a defensive reputation, but they were 8th a year ago, and 7th in their championship year of 2011. In fact the last time Dallas was in the bottom of half of the NBA on defense was 2009 when they were 17th. So this is a very shaky defensive team that doesn’t close out possessions when they do force a miss.

There are some reasonable excuses that can be put forth. The season-long data obviously includes the games Nowitzki misses. Another big man, 7-foot center Chris Kaman has been out with a concussion since January 30. He’s started to do non-contact drills in practice the last couple days and the Mavs really need him back. The front line is rounded out with Shawn Marion and Elton Brand, ages 34 and 33 respectively. Combined with Dirk, this makes for a frontcourt that’s long in the tooth.

Dallas invested in the backcourt during the offseason, bringing in Darren Collison and O.J. Mayo. It’s turned out to be a pretty good tandem. Mayo is averaging 18 points a game and does it with efficient shooting both from the floor and from three-point range. Collison shoots 48 percent from the floor himself and both players are decent distributors. There’s veteran depth in the backcourt with 38-year-old Derek Fisher who knows something about winning, even if he’s not productive on the stat sheet. And there’s 36-year-old Vince Carter who knows something about being productive on the stat sheet even if he’s not winning.

Even allowing for the competitiveness of the Western Conference, the personnel is here to at least make the playoffs. Dallas has played modestly better since Nowitzki’s return on December 23. The overall before and after records don’t show it, at 12-15 without and 12-14 since the return. But that includes losing the first four games Dirk was back, when he was presumably still playing his way into shape. Dallas stabilized in January, at 7-8 and has gotten on a nice little run in February, winning five of seven this month.

Thus, the question is whether the improved play of February is a sign of an impending stretch drive. Here’s a run through each game of the 5-2 stretch with a special focus on the question of rebounding…

Feb 1: at Phoenix (109-99)–Brand and Marion each have double-digit rebounds, keying an overall 51-46 edge on the glass. Dirk misses this game.

Feb 4: at Oklahoma City (91-112)–I’ll cut the Mavs slack here since there’s no denying they lack the talent to compete with the West’s upper crust. Dirk was back and ineffective and Dallas lost rebounding, and the Thunder were also hot from three-point range.

Feb 6: vs. Portland (105-99)–A good night on the glass, with a 46-42 advantage, again keyed by Marion and aided by Nowitzki. Mayo knocks down 28 points to be the offensive difference-maker.

Feb 9: vs. Golden State (116-91)–The best defensive performance of this stretch, holding the Warriors to 38 percent shooting. It makes up for a tough night rebounding, with Collison and Mayo playing a dominant game in the backcourt.

Feb 11: vs Atlanta (101-105)–A tough home loss is caused by Josh Smith and Al Horford owning the boards for the Hawks. Dirk scores 24, but Smith and Horford can eat up a weak rebounding team and that’s what happens here.

Feb 13: vs Sacramento (123-100)—It’s 51-44 for Dallas on rebounds and that advantage is thanks to a complete team-wide effort. It’s the best game in this sequence, although it’s also easily the worst opponent.

Feb 20: vs. Orlando (111-96)–Close to a wash on the glass, at 44-43 Dallas. But when you’re 27th in the league in a category and you play dead-even, that counts as a win. And it’s translated into a W on the court.

Dallas has held its own on the glass—if you go strictly by rebounding, that’s four wins and three losses, with the final win being close enough to call a push. It’s a demonstration of the fact that if the Mavs can continue to at least break even, they can keep winning games. The next question would be how much credibility do you give the competition?

It’s not a bad schedule stretch by any means, with three games against playoff teams and Portland at least being respectable. But it does have to be concerning that the three playoff teams—Oklahoma City, Golden State and Atlanta also are the three teams that beat the Mavs on the boards and two of them won the game.

If Dallas had some cushion that could be overcome by just taking care of the games against inferior teams. But they’re 4 ½ games behind Houston for the last playoff spot. It’s only three games in the loss column, but don’t forget the Lakers are a factor in this race as well. Portland might also be if they can turn around their recent slump. In the Western Conference, you have to assume it will take 42 or 43 wins to get in, and that means the Mavs have to win 18 or 19 times in their final 29 games.

Somewhere along the line that means beating quality teams and that starts Sunday. After a Friday night trip to New Orleans, the Mavs host the Lakers in a 1 PM ET tip on ABC. That’s followed by a home date with Milwaukee, followed by games with Memphis, Brooklyn and Houston. So it’s a Sunday preliminary bout, followed by four straight against teams currently in the playoffs. There’s no room for error and that means Marion, Brand and Nowitzki have to get tough on the glass.

 

NBA Coverage: Indiana & Chicago Do It With Defense

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There’s a lot of maneuvering going on as the NBA trade deadline approaches on Thursday, but two teams we can reasonably be sure are getting significant upgrades won’t need a trade—the Indiana Pacers and Chicago Bulls have played without their stars for the entire season. Now Danny Granger is expected back for the Pacers any day. And while we get mixed messages about Derrick Rose from the Windy City, he did participate in a full 5-on-5 workout yesterday and you have to think that heightens the odds of an imminent return.

What’s most noteworthy about these teams though, is the success the Pacers and Bulls have each had without their stars, especially given the emphasis the culture of the NBA places on the star system. Indiana is in third in the Eastern Conference at 32-21, while Chicago is fifth with a record of 30-22. Both are squarely in the mix of teams that are tightly packed from 2 thru 6 and a trip to the Eastern Conference Finals is eminently realistic even if Granger or Rose never saw the court this year. Both teams are built on tough defense, each hits the boards hard to close out those defensive possessions and both control the pace with a slow tempo. Beyond these core similarities, TheSportsNotebook’s NBA coverage will break down each team a little further…

Indiana: 22-year-old small forward Paul George has stepped up with a big year, averaging 18 points/8 rebounds/4 assists per game and emerged as the go-to player on the offensive end. He’s also a respectable three-point shooter, hitting 39 percent from behind the arc. The Pacers continue to be tough on the blocks, with David West averaging 17/8 from the power forward spot, and Roy Hibbert at 10/8. Hibbert is somewhat of a disappointment—he has the talent to be the best center in the game, but he only shows it on the offensive end in spurts. I’m not suggesting Indiana fans throw him back or anything—he still blocks shots, is a great defensive presence and at least chips in offensively, but the 26-year-old could be much better.

The backcourt doesn’t have the same depth as last year with the loss of Darren Collison, but they get solid offensive work from George Hill at 15 ppg. Overall though, head coach Frank Vogel can’t be comfortable with Lance Stephenson having to get so much playing time. Furthermore, George and Hill are the only decent three-point shooters and neither one exceeds 40 percent. That’s not a killer flaw—in a seven-game series it’s more important to defend and rebound, and Indiana ranks at the top of the NBA—including the more heralded Bulls—in both areas. But still, in a tough playoff series it would be nice to have a one game where some hot shooting from the outside might bail you out. We’ll see if any moves are forthcoming over the next couple days in that regard, although to date there are no major rumors.

If the playoffs started today and form held in the first round, Indiana would play New York in the second round. It would be a rematch of the great matchups these teams had in the mid-1990s when Reggie Miller lit up Madison Square Garden or Patrick Ewing went toe-to-toe with Rik Smits in the low post. The Pacers and Knicks will meet on Wednesday as the joust for seed position heats up . Indiana then plays consecutive games with Detroit on Friday and Saturday, before playing home games with Western Conference contenders Golden State and the Los Angeles Clippers in the early part of next week.

Granger’s return represents both promise and pitfall—he’ll allow Stephenson to take on a more reduced role, but at the same time Granger could take shots away from George. We’ll have to see how well Vogel can get the new lineup clicking. But he’s got 29 games to do it and a team that’s done a tremendous job overcoming an injury that by rights should have relegated them to the playoff borderline.

Chicago: It’s a credit to quality of the Bulls’ frontcourt and the coaching of Tom Thibodeau that this team has managed to keep winning. The depth in the backcourt is woeful. It’s not that Nate Robinson isn’t having a decent year at the point—he is, with 12 ppg and shooting well both inside and outside the arc. But Rip Hamilton’s best days are well behind him at the two-guard spot and Kirk Hinrich has a reputation that exceeds his actual production—he scores seven points a game and shoots sub-40 percent from the floor and from three-point range.

If you put Rose into the mix it obviously changes the dynamic—Robinson would be one of the best backup point guards in the game, or you could play the two side-by-side and push the pace. Hamilton is still a good shooter, it’s just that at 35 years old the durability isn’t there. But in a framework that includes Rose, the veteran fits in much easier. It’s easy to see why Chicago has been tied to trade rumors surrounding Orlando sharpshooter J.J. Redick.

The Bulls went through a recent losing streak, in large part because Joakim Noah missed some time, but the center is back in the lineup. He averages a 12/11 each night, and is a tremendous defensive asset. Luol Deng scores 17 ppg, although at 31 percent from behind the arc, he might want to consider not jacking up so many treys. Carlos Boozer is at 16/9, though the 31-year-old is a part of a lot of trade rumors and a lot of NBA observers don’t expect him to be in the Windy City come Thursday night when the Heat come to town. If Boozer is moved for backcourt help, Taj Gibson is a good rebounder and defender that can step into an increased role.

Chicago plays New Orleans tonight to get ready for Miami’s arrival in two days (8 PM ET, TNT). Then the warmup-showdown sequence is replayed over the weekend when the Bulls use a trip to Charlotte on Friday night to warm up for a Sunday night date in Oklahoma City (9:30 PM ET, ESPN).  The Thursday night game with the Heat comes a few hours after the trade deadline, so the team we see take on Miami and OkC is the one Thibodeau will go into the stretch drive with.

No one’s going to deny the NBA is a star-driven league, particularly in the playoffs. But the Pacers and Bulls have both shown you can go a long way with some effort and teamwork on the defensive end and they deserve a tip of the cap for what they’ve done without their big guns.