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NBA championship futures

NBA Championship Futures At The Christmas Checkpoint

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The NBA season hits its first early checkpoint as we get for their run of five nationally televised games on Christmas Day. Let’s take a look at how everything is shaking out, as defined by the NBA championship futures. The biggest story has clearly been the blazing start of the Indiana Pacers.

When the season started, the Pacers were priced at 14-1 odds to win the NBA title in June. Today, they are down 3-1. TheSportsNotebook is pleased to have recommended Indiana at the earlier price, along with suggesting a hedge with the Miami Heat at 2-1.


Such a strategy would have you sitting pretty, able to at least break even with Miami, or cash in bigger with Indiana. The shift in odds since the start of the season makes that impossible today. Of course the only reason it worked is that it was purely a hypothetical wager on my part. If I’d have actually put money down, you can be assured the Pacers would be playing .500 ball and LeBron James’ recent ankle tweak probably would have been a season-ending break.

The big four of the NBA championship futures include the last two Western Conference champs, the Oklahoma City Thunder and San Antonio Spurs. Here’s how the numbers look today…

Miami: 9-5
Indiana: 3-1
Oklahoma City: 5-1
San Antonio: 8-1

Given the nature of the NBA, the 2014 champion is almost certainly coming from this group, but there are four other dark horse candidates if you’re hungry to try for a longshot.

LA Clippers: 12-1
Portland: 15-1
Houston: 15-1
Golden State: 20-1


I can see the Clippers moving into the elite group as the season progresses. I’m much more skeptical of Portland in spite of their great start, one that has them running neck-and-neck with Oklahoma City and San Antonio at the top of the Western Conference.

I see the Blazers as a back-end playoff team by the time all is said and done. Houston and Golden State are good teams, but the Rockets don’t seem quite championship-ready yet and the Warriors’ own slow start–they would miss the playoffs if the season started today–suggest the same about them.

The Eastern Conference has been marked by failure. There is the colossal disappointment of the Brooklyn Nets , the shortcomings of the New York Knicks and the season-ending injury to Derrick Rose in Chicago. For those of who like the East’s also-rans (I pull for the Celtics) it opens up some fun chances to talk about making the second round of the playoffs, but as far as the big picture, the East is about waiting for Miami-Indiana this spring.

BETTING THE NBA CHAMPIONSHIP FUTURES

If you didn’t look at the NBA championship futures back in October, what would be a good betting strategy today? The first decision you have to make is regarding Miami. If you can shop around and still find them at a clean 2-1, you have to take that as a hedge. The favorite wins too often in the NBA not to take out this insurance. That gives you some freedom to take a shot with a dark horse. But for the sake of this article, we’re going to be bound by the numbers above.


The decision you have to make then is whether to go all-in on Miami, and make them your exclusive bet, or just go anti-Miami. Let’s assume it’s the latter, since that makes this exercise more fun.

You then have to decide whether you want to mess around with Indiana at a low price–as well as they’re playing, they haven’t won a playoff series against a truly championship-caliber team. Oklahoma City and San Antonio have. You could grab both Western Conference favorites, supplement them with the Clippers and essentially make it an “all-in-on-the West” proposition.

If you believe in any other Western teams, you could still grab two more and so long as equal amounts were bet on all four teams, you turn a profit regardless of who wins.

The Pacers just aren’t a good bet right now. The 3-1 price tag makes them more of a hedge than a real shot, and they haven’t accomplished enough when it matters to justify being used as a hedge. This is the team I picked to win the NBA title straight-up at the start of the season and I’m certainly staying with that. Now is just not the time to bet on them. I’m glad I grabbed them at 14-1. Hypothetically anyway.

NBA Commentary: Championship Predictions & Betting Futures

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TheSportsNotebook’s NBA commentary has broken down the first-round playoff matchups for both the Eastern Conference and Western Conference. The games start Saturday, with all eight Game 1s taking place this the weekend. In this article, we’ll tie it all together into round-by-round predictions and look at the betting odds associated with each team.

It’s a strange year in the playoffs due to injuries. There are the ones that have been season-long dramas (Derrick Rose). There are the ones we’ve known about for some time (Rajon Rondo). There are the ones that just happened (Kobe Bryant). In addition to these big-time stars, we can add in key players like Denver’s Danilo Gallinari and Atlanta’s Lou Williams, both absences that can swing a first-round series and certainly prevent their teams from at least reaching the conference finals.

Two teams that aren’t afflicted by the injury bug are Miami and Oklahoma City. LeBron and Durant, D-Wade and Westbrook, are healthy and ready to roll. The Heat and Thunder are both #1 seeds and the betting line favorites to meet again in a rematch of last year’s Finals, Miami overwhelmingly so. Here are the odds on teams just to reach the championship round…

EAST
Miami (1-6)
New York (8-1)
Indiana (13-1)
Chicago (25-1)
Brooklyn/Boston (30-1)
Atlanta/Milwaukee (100-1)

I don’ t think there are any good betting options. Mainly, because to wager on anyone except the Heat is to throw your money away, regardless of how good the odds might be. And the 1-6 price tag on Miami is prohibitive—you’d have to bet a substantial amount to make it worth your while and then spend the next several weeks praying LeBron doesn’t tweak a hammy—which you may recall he did briefly in last year’s Finals, so you can’t rule it out.

If you’re not sold on Miami, you may as well load up on everyone else—at least New York and Indiana, and then toss in one other team, as the odds are good enough that if any of them won, you would still profit. But I’m staying away here.

TheSportsNotebook tabbed Miami, Brooklyn, Indiana and Boston to win first-round series in the Eastern Conference previews. I’ve got Miami beating Brooklyn and Indiana ousting Boston in the second round. Then the Heat eliminate the Pacers in five games. I don’t see any of these series after the first round going further than five games.

WEST
Oklahoma City (11-10)
San Antonio (16-5)
LA Clippers/Denver (6-1)
Memphis (8-1)
Golden State/LA Lakers (30-1)
Houston (40-1)

My first-round winners in the West were Oklahoma City, LA Clippers, Denver and San Antonio. I’ve got the Thunder and Nuggets moving to the conference finals, with Oklahoma City again winning the West. I like OkC enough to feel that the 11-10 price tag is a bargain. San Antonio is banged up and if that’s the conference final matchup, the Spurs would likely be in worse shape by that point in the bracket (think of how tired Boston was last year against Miami).

The Clippers can give Oklahoma City a good run in the second round, and I certainly don’t see it as a sure thing. But I consider the Thunder at least even money in the West and the fact I’m getting slightly better than that at the betting window. I would lay 27 Units on Oklahoma City (the value of a unit being whatever your imagination or bankroll wants to make it). My rationale for that number is that I lost 29 Units in my futures strategy in the NCAA Tournament, and 27 Units at 11-10 would make that back plus a bit more.

THE CHAMPIONSHIP ROUND

This leaves us set up with another LeBron-Durant battle for a ring. Miami is a 1-2 bet to win the whole thing, with Oklahoma City at 5-1. Here again, I think the Thunder are a worthwhile play. Keep in mind, this team won 60 games, does pretty much everything on a basketball court well, is well-coached, has a star who’s played like he’s a little angry and has something to prove and now has some championship round experience under their belt.

The flip argument is that Miami is better than they were last year, looser and more confident now that the monkey is off their back, and would have homecourt advantage. I’d agree with the first two points and the latter is simple fact. But are the Heat that much better to justify the disparity in those championship odds? Now some of that undoubtedly comes from the fact that Oklahoma City has a tougher road just to get to this round, and if the matchup were staring us in the face, I’m  sure the Thunder’s odds wouldn’t be so generous.

I believe Oklahoma City will win at least three games in a Finals matchup with Miami, and that the series would go to South Beach for Games 6 & 7 with the Heat needing to win both. I picked Oklahoma City at the start of the year, and though I’m not confident enough to actually bet them at 5-1, I’ll at least do the superficial thing of saying nice things and picking them to find a way to close out the championship.

Here are some other odds to win the NBA title…

San Antonio (12-1)
New York (15-1)
LA Clippers/Denver (25-1)
Memphis/Indiana (30-1)
Chicago/Brooklyn/Boston (60-1)
LA Lakers/Golden State (75-1)
Houston (100-1)
Atlanta (250-1)
Milwaukee (400-1)

TheSportsNotebook’s official prediction is Oklahoma City to win the NBA crown. And the spot I’m really ready to put my money where my mouth is would be to load up on the Thunder to win the West, so long as you can get odds slightly better than even.