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NBA Central Division

NBA Central Division Preview

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TheSportsNotebook’s NBA commentary has been doing tours of each of the league’s six divisions in anticipation of the October 29 regular season opener. Today we focus in on the NBA Central Division, with a look at each team’s lineup and how they compare to their expectations, as measured by the NBA win futures in Las Vegas.

It’s an interesting division, with both Chicago and Indiana seeing themselves as title contenders and having legitimate basis for that belief. Cleveland and Detroit see themselves as a ready to make the playoffs, and they also have reason for confidence. Milwaukee probably doesn’t know what to think of themselves after an offseason of change, but as we’ll see, they have enough talent to be interesting.


Chicago: The return of Derrick Rose makes the Bulls the favorite in this division and reminds us all that this was the #1 seed in the Eastern Conference for the 2012 NBA playoffs, before Rose blew out his knee in the first game of that postseason.

Rose pairs up with Kirk Hinrich and Jimmy Butler, each of whom make competent two-guards and provide different skill sets, with Hinrich being a shooter and Butler able to take defenders off the dribble. The frontcourt is going to be very strong, with Joakim Noah anchoring the middle and flanked by Luol Deng and Carlos Boozer at the forward spots. The opportunity for Deng to play an enhanced role over the last year-plus will end up as a long-term positive that comes out of the Rose injury.

Chicago’s expectations are hefty, at 56.5, and it’s lot to ask of a team to go 57-25 when I’m sure their best player is still going to be monitored carefully. I mean no aspersions on Chicago’s championship hopes when I say the safe bet is the Under.

Indiana: The Pacers took Miami to seven games in the Eastern Conference Finals of the 2013 NBA playoffs and with that experience under their belt, Indiana meets the classic definition of an NBA team that has bided its time and is ready to take their turn. But they have to make sure the backcourt is up to snuff.

I’m surprised the Pacers didn’t do more with their guards. They’re still going with the George Hill-Lance Stephenson combo and C.J. Watson backing them up. It’s not bad, but against the top teams–which now include Chicago again, as well as Miami–it’s not a strength.

The good news is up front, where Roy Hibbert had a breakout showing in the Miami series and demonstrated he can dominate the middle. David West is a very consistent at power forward and Paul George gave the team legitimate star power at small forward. George had a meltdown in Game 7 in Miami, but that simply makes him a microcosm of the team–took his lumps this year, and now stronger for the experience.

Indiana has added Luis Scola to provide even more depth. The health of Danny Granger is an issue. If he can get on the court he’s a great scorer and possible trade chip. But he missed almost all of last year and is struggling with a calf issue right now.


I’m seriously considering making the Pacers my championship pick next week, but even given that I don’t like to go Over on big numbers like 55.5. I’m making an exception in this case–I don’t see them going any lower than 53 wins and I think a 58-60 win season is possible. That means more room on the Over.

Detroit: After a few years out of the postseason, the Pistons made a free-agent splash when they signed power forward Josh Smith away from Atlanta. Smith can score inside and outside, and can also rebound. The key for Detroit will be making sure Smith understands that the outside has to flow from the interior game and not vice-versa. That’s a long-winded of saying he can’t sit around on the three-point line.

Greg Monroe joins Smith to make a good forward tandem . The guards are the question mark right now–Rodney Stuckey and Brandon Jennings are going to miss some time to start the year, though it appears not a lot. Jennings, just acquired from Milwaukee still has to mesh with the offense. The minor injuries might end up working out for the best, since it means more playing time for first-round pick Kentavious Caldwell-Pope.

Detroit’s expectations are at 40. I can see them as a .500 team, but not a lot better. The playoffs are very much in play, but in the East, it has not always required 40 wins to get there. I’m leaning to the Under.

Cleveland: This is one team with no guards issues. Not when Kyrie Irving is in the house, Dion Waiters is developing and Jarrett Jack has been brought in from Golden State to provide a little depth. What the Cavs needs is for the frontcourt to come through.

To that end, Cleveland took a prudent risk of Andrew Bynum’s health and attitude. The temperamental center is not yet ready to play, but doesn’t appear far from it. I love the top overall draft pick of Anthony Bennett, a physical power forward and I still think Tristan Thompson can be a decent NBA starter.

In spite of that, Cleveland is still an Under pick for me. Their win prop is the same 40 that Detroit is, and my reasons are basically the same–the Cavaliers can meet their goals without necessarily winning 40 games, even in a best-case scenario they aren’t going much higher and if anything goes wrong, they could end up in the low 30s.

Milwaukee: With Jennings gone, and Monta Ellis shipped out, the Bucks high scoring backcourt that led them to the playoffs last year is gone and the expectations have tanked, down to a 28.5 win prop.

That’s a little harsh. Milwaukee brought in O.J. Mayo, Caron Butler and Gary Neal to man the perimeter. Brandon Knight isn’t ideal at point guard, but he’s manageable, and Larry Sanders superb defensive skills at center will wipe away mistakes on the perimeter. Sanders is also a maturing offensive player, and Ersan Ilyasova can help with points from the forward spot.

A key X-factor will be if John Henson is ready to help up front. The third-year player was a first-round pick out of North Carolina, but his rail-thin frame meant he needed some time to physically develop. The Bucks need him to produce now, and if he does, Henson will be another shotblocking threat.

I’m going Over on Milwaukee.

TheSportsNotebook’s NBA commentary will have a final preseason overview just prior to next Tuesday’s opener, where we’ll tie together all six divisional previews, and make some playoff predictions.

The Chicago Bulls & Indiana Pacers Battle In The NBA Central

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The Indiana Pacers got a tough 95-90 win in Chicago last night, and pulled to within 2 ½ games of the Bulls in the NBA’s Central Division. The Pacers are a team getting some love as a darkhorse this year in the East, while Chicago joins Miami as the top-heavy favorites to be in the conference finals for the second straight year. Today, TheSportsNotebook takes a closer look at the Bulls & Pacers. Next to each team in parentheses is their record and rank for the entire Eastern Conference, out of which eight teams make the playoffs.

Chicago (16-4, 1st): The record shows that in spite of last night’s loss the Running Of The Bulls (see video below), is coming along quite nicely. Derrick Rose hasn’t let last year’s MVP award and this year’s $95 million contract go to his head, and he’s still averaging 21 points and 8 assists per game What Rose doesn’t have is a good three-point shooter to play drive-and-dish with. Richard Hamilton is a good player at two-guard, but at 6’7” his strength lies more in the matchup problems he creates for smaller guards. Ronnie Brewer does pretty well at the three-pointers he does make, but just doesn’t launch all that many. Over the course of the long season, one has to wonder if we’ll see defenses pull back more and more, and if Brewer might have to be that unsung hero who steps up in a big game and hits 4-5 treys.

Chicago isn’t big, at least by NBA standards, up front, but they’re physical and go to the glass. Carlos Boozer and Joakim Noah each rebound, and Boozer is an effective scorer on the blocks. Where the Bulls are really hurt, at least in the short-term is the wrist injury to Luol Deng. A 16 points/8 rebounds a night player, Deng had been playing his best basketball of the young season until a wrist injury forced him to the sideline. On the one hand, he’s listed as day-to-day. On the other hand, he’s also listed as being out indefinitely.

Without Deng, Chicago won’t win its first post-Jordan NBA title, but if he is healthy I think they will. The reason is defense and rebounding. Chicago ranks first in the NBA defensive efficiency and third in rebounding. They do need to spice it up offensively a bit, where their efficiency ranking is 12th (Efficiency is a formula that adjusts points scored for tempo. Don’t ask me how it’s calculated, I just know what it factors and I look it up). A midseason trade for someone who can provide some instant offense—think someone along the lines of Steve Kerry on their late 1990s championship run, who could hit the three-ball– wouldn’t hurt as the Bulls try to fill in the last missing pieces of a championship team.

Indiana (12-5, 5th): The efficiency rankings suggest that Indiana’s not as good as its record right now, as the Pacers rank 22nd on offense and 12th on defense. Their rebounding is also in the middle of the league. Making all that add up to a contender in the East is tough—in fact, it’s impossible to go the entire year without those numbers reconciling themselves, so let’s look at the personnel and see if it can be the efficiency ranking that goes up, rather than the winning percentage going down.

Indian’s team functions around 7’2” center Roy Hibbert, who delivers a 15/10 each night and is a disruptive defensive presence. In the backcourt they key is point guard Darren Collision, who’s a pretty good quarterback and respectable enough shooter than you can’t play off him entirely. The pieces around these two are filled in nicely. Hibbert gets rebounding help from veteran David West and third-year power forward Tyler Hansbrough. Both also score in double-digits. At the guards, 21-year old Paul George s not only a matchup problem, being 6’8” and having a willingness to hit the glass, but he’s a steady shooter and hits 46 percent from behind the arc. George Hill is a similarly effective shooter.

The X-factor for the Pacers is small forward Danny Grander. At 17 ppg, he’s the team’s leading scorer, but he also only hits 37 percent of his shots from the floor, a stat that suggests he bears some responsibility for the bad efficiency numbers. Granger needs to stabilize his game if Indiana is going to reach the next level.

With all the contenders beyond Chicago and Miami in the East, we’re basically asking two questions—the first is, can they win playoff series and get to the second round. After that, can they compete with either of the Big Two. I like what Indiana has going here. I wouldn’t move to the level of Chicago or Miami, in spite of last night’s impressive win, nor would I even say they’re as good as Philadelphia. But right now I would slot them 4th in the East if I was doing power ratings, enabling them to clear at least the first threshold we set for darkhorses in the East.

Both Central Division contenders have tests coming up. Indiana goes to Boston and Orlando in a span of three days starting tomorrow, and on Sunday afternoon it’s Bulls-Heat (3:30 PM ET) on ABC.