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NBA Atlantic Division

NBA Atlantic Division Preview

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The NBA season opens on Tuesday, and TheSportsNotebook.com’s NBA commentary tips off with an overview of each division. We’ll look at the basics of each team’s lineup and how they might fare against their number in the win futures posted in Las Vegas. Today’s focus will be an NBA Atlantic Division preview.

This is a division whose balance of power has changed dramatically–indeed, it’s very personnel has changed dramatically, thanks to the Boston Celtics dealing Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett and Jason Terry to the rival Brooklyn Nets in the offseason. We’ve got three new coaches, including one that will be highly scrutinized–rather than play for the New York Knicks, Jason Kidd has retired and now has the keys to the car in Brooklyn.


Here’s the rundown on the five Atlantic Division teams and how they look against their NBA win futures…

Brooklyn: The trio of vets from Boston join a core of Deron Williams, Joe Johnson and Brooke Lopez, a threesome that was already good enough to build a championship team around. Andray Blatche is an excellent rebounder, the kind of role player a really good team needs.

Perhaps the big question is what constitutes success in an environment where expectations are so high? Do they have to dethrone the Miami Heat and reach the NBA Finals? Or is the conference finals good enough? It can’t be less than that, given that this kind of money hasn’t been spent to lose to Indiana in the second round. On the flip side, the new players are older and the current case lost a first-round Game 7 at home to a Chicago Bulls team that was basically playing its second string.

Las Vegas posts the win expectation at 52. That sounds about right, as I think the Nets are for real as a contender. But if you ask me to pick–and while you didn’t ask, the rules of this site are that I have to–I go Under. The reason is that it would be irresponsible to push Pierce, Garnett, Terry, and even Williams, to hard in the regular season. You want some gas in the tank for the playoffs. I can’t see this Nets team pushing for much higher than 52, and think it likely they settle for 48-50 wins and good health come late April.

New York: The long knives of the media are sharpening for Carmelo Anthony and his inability to ever take a team to the NBA Finals, much less win a title. The second-round loss to Indiana last year, while not surprising, was a disappointment given that Anthony was the best player on the floor and the Knicks had homecourt advantage.

Things aren’t getting better anytime soon. Raymond Felton can push the pace at point guard, but the support for Melo at other spots include Pablo Prigioni, Iman Shumpert and a 33-year-old Metta World Peace. In the meantime, Tyson Chandler is aging at center. If head coach Mike Woodson can figure out a way for Andrea Bargnani to ease the scoring load on Melo and to put together a cohesive team defense, the Knicks could survive the Nets and win the Atlantic. But more than that is tough to imagine.


Las Vegas expectations have New York at 49.5. There is absolutely no way I would bet this team to win 50 games, so I’m going Under.

Toronto: There’s relative optimism surrounding the Raptors, with a win prop of 36. They added Rudy Gay last season and shipped Bargnani off to New York. At the end of last season, I remember feeling like Toronto might be turning the corner, but as I review the personnel now, I wonder why. Kyle Lowry at the point is the only other notable player and he was shipped out of Houston make room for Jeremy Lin. I just don’t like this team and go Under.

Boston: Rebuilding is in the air at Boston Garden, but stop for a second and consider the players that are still with the Celtics, rather than the ones they traded away–Rajon Rondo still runs the show, even as we wait to find out when he’ll be back from his torn ACL. Avery Bradley is a good defender and midrange shooter at the two-guard. Jeff Green has explosive talent at small forward, even if he’s inconsistent.

Brandon Bass started at power forward for a team that reached the 2012 Eastern Conference Finals and almost upset Miami. Gerald Wallace and Jordan Crawford are decent role players who can kick in some points.

Get the point? The cupboard isn’t bare in Boston. There are three big question marks, which are Rondo’s knee, and the abilities of rookie center Kelly Olynyk and first-year head coach Brad Stevens. All of those are significant and a good reason for caution when it comes to expectations. But Las Vegas has given the Celts a number of 28. Yeah, I’ll take this team to at least win 30 games. Go Over.

Philadelphia: The 76ers have been dysfunctional in recent years, so they went to the organization that’s the model of functionality–the San Antonio Spurs–and tapped assistant Brett Brown to be their new head coach. Brown’s first draft pick was one I really like, Michael Carter-Williams, a 6’6″ point guard out of Syracuse. Carter-Williams has great size and floor vision, and he was an assist machine in helping Syracuse reach the 2013 Final Four.


Philly is also in major rebuilding mode, relying on Evan Turner to continue to improve and Spencer Hawes and Thaddeus Young to be adequate down low. This is another team that I don’t expect big things ,but the win future is posted at 16.5! You mean to tell me I can bet this team to go 17-65 and still cash an Over. Sure, no problem.

TheSportsNotebook will have previews of the other divisions coming up over the next week and a half, and then we’ll tie them all together right before the October 29 opener with some final overall predictions.

A Hot Atlantic Division Race Leads Up NBA Weekend Action

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The basketball world might be dominated with talk of March Madness from now until April 2 when the nets come down in New Orleans, but TheSportsNotebook hasn’t forgotten about the NBA, where the jousting for playoff berths and position continues in full force with less than two months to go in the regular season. Let’s take a look at the weekend ahead.

One of the most intriguing races is that for the Atlantic Division title right now. Based strictly on record, Philadelphia, Boston and New York would be the 6-7-8 seeds in the Eastern Conference. But NBA rules prohibit a division winner from falling only lower than the 4-spot, thus ensuring them homecourt advantage. So as bad as the Celtics have played, they’re only two back of the division-leading Sixers. In spite of the fact the Knicks were lousy before Jeremy Lin and have started to come down to earth again after the All-Star break, one of these teams is going to have a higher seed than someone like Atlanta, Indiana or Orlando. Hence, Sunday becomes a big day. The college kids from the Big East will have cleared out of Madison Square Garden after Saturday’s tournament final, and on Sunday the pros take over when the Sixers come to town to play the Knicks. And the day’s marquee game on ABC is the Celtics-Lakers at 3:30 PM ET.

The 3-seed is available to a non-division winner, and that’s where the race between Orlando, Indiana and Atlanta become so vital. I don’t really think the Hawks can do it and expect them to settle in at #6 or perhaps even slide to #7 behind the Atlantic runner-up. Atlanta’s got some nagging injuries in the backcourt right now, including to premier scorer Joe Johnson and floor leader Jeff Teague. Indiana’s bee slipping in recent days, and has a huge weekend in the Sunshine State. It starts Saturday at Miami and then a big showdown game with Orlando on Sunday. The Magic are 26-15 and currently lead the race for the 3-spot, but how long will the game’s best rebounder in Dwight Howard be in town? The trade deadline is next Thursday and Orlando has a hard decision to make about the discontented Howard. If he’s happy and focused, Orlando can make the conference semi-finals and be a live dark horse to give Miami or Chicago a real run. Without Howard, they likely plummet to the bottom of the playoff standings and say a quick goodbye at the hands of one of the two favorites, only one round earlier and in a lot less competitive fashion. A lot of people feel there’s no difference between the two. I think there’s a substantial difference, but also respect that Orlando can’t let Howard walk at the end of the season, so it’s a tough call for management to make.

New York visits Milwaukee on Friday night and the Knicks are likely to be without Tyson Chandler, who has a hamstring injury. The Bucks, along with Cleveland are slipping out of the Eastern Conference playoff picture and it’s becoming last stand time. If Milwaukee can’t win at home against a shorthanded team they have to catch, then we might as well write them off.

In the West, Memphis is moving up the ladder, making San Antonio sweat in the Southwest Division and sliding into the #3 spot, ahead of the LA Clippers. The Grizzlies are still doing it without power forward Zach Randolph, whom they realistically need if they’re going to make any kind of a playoff run. The standings right now show the Clippers and Lakers destined for a 4-5 battle in the first round, and as they’re the only real contenders in the Pacific Division, we’re at least assured that one of them will have homecourt advantage for the first series. But there are a lot of contenders battling to move up to 5th, or even 3rd and they’re led by Dallas. Also keep an eye on Minnesota. The T-Wolves came through a tough stretch out west, they’re still standing and they get a home game with the suddenly slumping Lakers on Friday night. The Southwest Division could tighten further, as San Antonio has to be the LA Clippers tonight, and Memphis can try and make up ground with a winnable road game in Denver on Sunday.

One team that’s slumping badly is the Houston Rockets, who’ve dropped five in a row and would miss the playoffs if the season ended today. Point guard Kyle Lowry, essential to the team’s success is battling some nagging injuries and in the much deeper Western Conference, there’s no room for error. Not when you have to catch either Minnesota or Denver to play your way back in, and you have teams like Utah and Portland also on the outside looking in. The Trail Blazers host Boston on Friday night and the Jazz get a home game with the Bulls, who may be without Luol Deng, on Saturday.