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Mountain West Basketball: San Diego State Is The Clear Favorite

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Mountain West basketball was riding high last year, putting five teams of what was then an eight-team league into the NCAA Tournament. The league is bigger this season, with eleven teams, but there’s work ahead if similar postseason activity is going to happen. San Diego State is the only team making any kind of mark in the early going.

The Aztecs are ranked 20th in the country, and have wins over Creighton and Marquette. The only loss in a 9-1 start for San Diego State is to Arizona. Steve Fischer’s team has good inside-out balance. It starts with Xavier Thames scoring 16 ppg, and hitting 47 percent from behind the arc. Winston Shepard and J.J. O’Brien are double-digit scorers at the forward spot, and Josh Davis gets ten rebounds a game in holding down the middle.


San Diego State’s only real weakness is a lack of depth. The Aztecs’ core four players log a lot of minutes and as the grind of conference play starts up on New Year’s Day that could start to wear on them. But if not, Fischer has what it takes to return to the top of the Mountain West.

LAST YEAR’S NCAA TOURNAMENT TEAMS

New Mexico: The Lobos won the conference championship a year ago, but they lost head coach Steve Alford to UCLA and Tony Snell to the first round of the NBA draft. There are still three good players here in Kendall Williams, a prolific scorer and three-point shooter in the backcourt, stud forward Cameron Bairstow (21 points/7 rebounds per game) and seven-foot center Alex Kirk.

UNLV: Vegas saw forward Anthony Bennett taken with the first overall pick in the NBA draft, and it appears both the Cleveland Cavaliers and UNLV are worse off because of it. While Bennett flails away at the pro level, the Rebels have lost to a very good team (Arizona) a pretty good one (Illinois), a decent one (Arizona State) and have an embarrassing defeat (UC-Santa Barbara). Meanwhile, there are no notable wins to point to.


Roscoe Smith is an excellent power forward and worthy heir to Bennett, but the guard play is problematic and the three-point shooting awful. You can never write off UNLV in this conference, but there’s still serious work ahead.

Colorado State: The Rams are similar to UNLV in that the lack of three-point shooting is going to hold them back. Colorado State forward J.J. Avila is averaging 19 points/6 rebounds, while both Daniel Bejarano and Jon Octeus are board-crashing players from the wing. There’s enough here to compete, but whether the Rams can make it back to the dance is another question.

Boise State: Anthony Drmic and Derrick Marks can pour in the points from the wings, combining for 35 ppg, while Jeff Elorriaga provides further backcourt help and Ryan Watkins hits the glass underneath. The one weakness is that for all the scoring, none of it comes from behind the arc. We’ll see if opposing defenses start sagging back.

THE REST OF THE MOUNTAIN WEST

Utah State: The Aggies are 9-2 and have a nice backcourt of Spencer Butterfield and Preston Medlin, each of whom are lights out on the three-ball. Any hopes of competing in conference play are entirely dependent on the return of Jaried Shaw. The power forward is averaging 16 points/8 rebounds, but has been suspended indefinitely for a violation of team rules. With Shaw, Utah State can get in the league’s top half. Without him…don’t ask.


Wyoming: If the Cowboys get some depth, they can be an interesting team. Larry Nance Jr. is averaging 17 points/10 rebounds a game at the forward position. Fans who are my age (early forties) might recall Nance’s father and namesake playing in the NBA and winning the first Slam Dunk Contest.

The son gets help from a smallish backcourt in Riley Grabau and Josh Adams. It’s enough to make them a tough out on any given night, but over the long haul, Wyoming needs one or two more guys to step up.

Air Force:  A well-balanced lineup has four double-digit scorers, including Tre Coggins who knocks down 17 per game and hits 44 percent from behind the arc. But the Falcons are 6-5, so the numbers aren’t adding up.

Fresno State: There’s a good backcourt in Fresno, with Marvelle Harris, Cesar Guerrero and Tyler Johnson, but the problem is the contributing players are too similar. Paul Watson is a nice option at forward, but he’s another outside shooter rather than the inside help this team needs if they’re going to rise above their current .500 pace.

Nevada: Deonte Burton averages 23 ppg, but on a 5-7 team it doesn’t appear too many people will get to know him.
San Jose State: Another one-man show, with Rashad Muhammad knocking down 17 a night on a losing team.

Mountain West Basketball Overview

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The conference push in Mountain West basketball started tonight and though the eight-team league is small by today’s standards, the Mountain West has legitimate Top 16 teams nationally at the top, and quality depth in the middle. Here’s an overview of how the landscape looks.

THE BIG THREE

San Diego State, UNLV and New Mexico are the teams with recent track records of going to the NCAA Tournament and showing flashes of being more. They sit again as the favorites in the race.

San Diego State: You have to love the Aztecs’ backcourt with Jamaal Franklin and Chase Tapley. They give you a combined 34 points as game, Franklin crashes the glass and Tapley hits the three. Xavier Thames provides more long-range shooting. This alone will make San Diego State a player, but ultimate success rests with senior DeSahwn Stephens and whether he becomes a consistent rebounder up front.

New Mexico: A loss to South Dakota State was disappointing, and the Lobos also fell at St. Louis. But Steve Alford’s team got a win at Cincinnati and in Kendall Williams has a top playmaker to run the show. Williams can also score and 6’7” guard Tony Snell is a big matchup problem. Seven-foot center Alex Kirk is the potential difference maker and if he keeps getting eight or more boards a night, he’ll be tough for someone like San Diego State to match up with.

UNLV: The Rebs are getting forward Mike Moser back from an elbow injury, so whatever we’ve seen them do in December, assume it will get better. And we’ve seen them compete effectively in losses to Oregon and North Carolina and win at Cal. Anthony Marshall is the playmaker, senior leader and best three-point shooter, while freshman sensation Anthony Bennett dominates at the forward spot, with 20 points/9 rebounds per game. Put Moser into this group, and if two-guard Katin Reinhart continues to develop, the Rebels could have something special.

THE BEST CHALLENGERS

Wyoming is undefeated, Colorado State’s enjoyed some recent success and is playing well and Boise State can’t be overlooked, even if they don’t have a blue basketball court to match their football field.

Wyoming: The 13-0 record is still tough to read, because Colorado is the best win. The forward spot is the strength, with Leonard Washington and Larry Nance Jr, the latter being the namesake of a former NBA player who won the first All-Star Weekend slam dunk contest. Derroius Gilmore is a little 5’10 guard that knocks down 12 a game. But he, or someone, needs to distribute more and there’s also more scoring help needed in the backcourt. It’s tough to see the Cowboys being as complete as their three rivals.

Colorado State: A loss to UI-Chicago is a sore spot, but they did blow out Virginia Tech. Pierce Hornung is an excellent player, a 6’5” forward who plays big, at ten rebounds a game. And he can roam the perimeter, knocking down 44 percent from trey range. Dorian Green is a quality senior guard who keeps the offense flowing, and 6’10” senior Colton Iverson scores and rebounds in the low post. Colorado State doesn’t have the reputation of the Big Three, but they have a good shot to break into that group.

Boise State: The mere fact the Broncos beat Creighton is enough to make you take them seriously. They have a trio of guards who can all hit the three-ball in Jeff Eliorriaga, Derrick Marks and Mikey Thompson, and that alone will make them a threat to beat anyone on any given night. Ryan Watkins has to carry the load down low and will determine if they can make an NCAA Tournament run.

BRINGING UP THE REAR

Air Force: None of the losses are bad, in Colorado, Florida, Richmond and Wichita, but they fact the Falcons were blown out by Richmond, who’s in a rebuilding year is a bigger concern. As is the lack of depth. Air Force can run an inside-out game with Michael Lyons, who knocks down 20 a night on the perimeter and Taylor Borkehuis, a 6’10” presence in the low post. But there’s no one else and Borkehuis’ rebounding is questionable.

Nevada: There are losses to Pacific, UC-Davis and UC-Irvine. Let’s just stop there.

Mountain West Basketball: UNLV, San Diego State & New Mexico Push For Prominence

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The Mountain West is lurking in the national rankings, with three teams that have a recent history of NCAA Tournament presence, all sitting in the Top 20. Today let’s take a closer look at UNLV, San Diego State and New Mexico and see what we might expect between now and March.

UNLV (#20): The Runnin’ Rebels are keyed by junior guard Anthony Marshall. He scores, to the tune of 11 ppg, he rebounds and he passes, averaging five per game in both categories. And he does it with efficiency, hitting nearly 50 percent from the floor and behind the arc. He’s got a great frontcourt partner, in 6’8” freshman Anthony Bennett, who’s knocking down 20 points/8 rebounds a night. But can the Rebs fill in the pieces around them?

If Mike Moser is healthy, the answer is yes. The junior forward is averaging an 11/8, but he’s also got dislocated elbow that will keep him out at least a month, and if the worst-case reports have any validity, he could miss the entire season. Without Moser, UNLV is a borderline team for the NCAA Tournament, whereas if they get him back by the end of January, they can compete with the best teams in this conference and have hope of making noise in March.

Noise in March is something UNLV hasn’t made in a while, with three straight first-round exits on their resume. Two other possible players who could make a difference in that regard are freshman Katin Reinhardt and sophomore Byrce Dejean on the perimeter. Unless at least one of them steps up, I don’t see the Rebs climbing any higher than their current national standing.

San Diego State (#18): No player in this league is better than swingman Jamaal Franklin, who’s scoring 19 ppg, while averaging 10 rebounds and three assists. No team in this league has better three-point shooting, with both Chase Tapley and Xavier Thames hitting better than 40 percent from trey range. This trio alone makes San Diego State a lock for a fourth straight NCAA appearance.

It’s the frontcourt that decides whether they can be more and its two seniors who carry the load in James Rahon and DeShawn Stephens. The problem is that Rahon only goes 6’5”, so unless sophomore J.J. O’Brien is ready to step it up, Stephens will have to carry the rebound load. Right now he’s only averaging five per night and that won’t cut it over the long haul. I like this team a lot and the Franklin/Tapley/Thames package makes them a threat to win a one-game shot against most anyone, but the Aztecs need more contributions in the post if they want to be a true national threat.

New Mexico (#17): Steve Alford’s program has been kind of tip-toeing around national prominence, but hasn’t dipped its toe in the water. They’ve made two NCAAs in the last three years, making them the only program in this group we’re looking at today to have missed one. They had a nice win over Long Beach State a year ago, breaking the hearts of the midmajor team I had pegged for the Final Four, but then the Lobos came up just short against Louisville. A couple years ago they had thirty wins, but said goodbye early in the Dance.

This year’s team can be different. The backcourt is exceptionally well-balanced, with Kendall Marshall able to both run the show and score. Tony Snell is a respectable scorer, and at 6’7” offers matchup problems for smaller guards. Demetrius Walker and Chad Adams are lights out behind the arc. But what makes this team stand apart if Alex Kirk, the seven-foot center, who’s averaging a 12/8 per game and gives New Mexico the true post player that their conference rivals lack.

I like all three of these teams, and I think they’ll make the tournament. UNLV looks like another early exit, San Diego State’s got intriguing possibilities, but no one in the Mountain West looks more complete right now than New Mexico and this has a chance to be a Top 16 team by year’s end.

Mountain West Basketball Report

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The Mountain West Conference had one of the more exciting championship races this season, with three of the league’s eight teams staying in it to the bitter end. They have one of the more exciting tournaments ahead, as a fourth team has a shot at making it to the NCAA Tournament. Whether this is excitement based on shared mediocrity or that there’s a lot of darkhorses in this field won’t be known until late next Friday night when the NCAA’s first round wraps up. TheSportsNotebook looks back and looks ahead in the Mountain West…

Is it possible for New Mexico to be the most pleasant surprise and the biggest disappointment all in one fell swoop? The Lobos weren’t expected to compete for the conference championship this year, yet ended the season at 10-4 with a share of the title in hand. But they had the outright crown in their grasp, up two games with four to go. An understandable loss at Colorado State was followed by an inexcusable defeat to Air Force and Steve Alford’s team fell back into a tie with San Diego State. The Lobos run an effective two-man game with Kendall Williams being a great floor leader at the point, and Drew Gordon being an excellent post player with a 13 point/11 rebounds per game average. The players are good enough that I have to catch myself from mistaking them with Kendall Marshall at North Carolina and Drew Gooden of the Milwaukee Bucks.

San Diego State lost a ton of talent from last year’s team that got a #2 seed in the NCAA Tournament, made the Sweet 16 and only lost to eventual national champion UConn in a competitive game. One of the returnees was Chase Tapley, a guard who averaged 15 ppg, but no star shone brighter than Jamaal Franklin, the 6’4” guard who led the league in scoring with 17 a night. Fabulous job by Steve Fischer in getting a piece of another conference title with the Aztecs.

I like Lon Kruger, who coaches at UNLV, but at least so far, this team won’t go down as one of his masterpieces. UNLV has the best balanced team in the league, with Mike Moser down low, Chase Stanback a solid forward who can play inside and out, and a good backcourt with Oscar Bellfield and Anthony Marshall. They’re projected as a #5 seed by ESPN.com bracketologist Joe Lunardi (compared to #7 for both New Mexico and San Diego State), but blew the conference title with some underachieving performances in league play.

One team that didn’t underachieve was Colorado State, who put together a solid backcourt led by the prolific Wes Eikmeier and solid supporting piece in Dorian Green, and coupled them with forwards Greg Smith and Pierce Hornung, but neither of the latter stand taller than 6’6”. Nonetheless, the Rams are playing the best basketball in this league right now and have moved up to a projected #12 seed in the NCAA by Lunardi.

WHAT HAPPENS IN VEGAS

Las Vegas is the site of the conference tournament and the way this conference has gone, we have to expect a little bit of chaos. The biggest game of Thursday’s quarterfinals will clearly be Colorado State-TCU. If the Rams lose, they probably play their way out of the tournament. If they win, I won’t go so far as to say they’re in, but they’ll at least have a shot, regardless of what happens against San Diego State. And the way Colorado State is playing, I like them to reach the final. On the opposite side of the bracket, UNLV needs redemption and moves past New Mexico to create a title game between the #3 and #4 seeds. On yesterday’s podcast at Prime Sports Network with Greg DePalma, I picked Colorado State to win this tournament, but after further reflection and thinking about the importance of homecourt advantage, I’m picking Kruger’s Rebels to get it done.

INDIVIDUAL AWARDS

Coach of the Year goes to Fischer. While Tim Miles did a great job at Colorado State, for Fischer to win a championship with losing all the players he did…well, I have to go with him in spite of how much I used to loathe the man when he coached the Fab Five at Michigan in the early 1990s.

Drew Gordon is the Player of the Year. While Franklin was more explosive, he also had a little more help, with Tapley. Gordon was easily the alpha dog on a team that picked up an unexpected piece of the league title.

Tom Izzo Does It Again: Michigan State Leads Big Ten

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The Michigan State Spartans were supposed to be in rebuilding mode when they helped tip off the college basketball season back on the aircraft carrier in San Diego on November 11. A loss that night to North Carolina and four nights later to Duke at Madison Square Garden, were nothing to be ashamed of, but nor was there anything to suggest Tom Izzo’s team would become a Big Ten leader and national title contender—particularly when conference favorite Ohio State smoked Duke by 22 points in the Big Ten-ACC Challenge. But then things changed.

Izzo’s tough non-conference opening helped his young team mature quickly and his own coaching savvy began to piece together a lineup rotation. Michigan State has only one clear star, power forward Draymond Green, who averages 15 points/11 rebounds/4 assists per game. And the team has only one other double-digit scorer, in sophomore guard Keith Appling, at 12 ppg. But depth and the classic Michigan State formula of attacking the glass has this team sitting on an 11-3 conference record, sole possession of first place and a projected #2 seed in the NCAA Tournament by ESPN.com bracketologist Joe Lunardi.

Michigan State only has two other players who average 20-plus minutes a game, forward Branden Dawson and guard Brandon Wood. The latter is a good shooter from the perimeter, but while his three-point range isn’t bad, nor is it a strength. Dawson chips in some rebounding help. Where the Spartans draw their strength is use of the entire lineup and they have four players who give Izzo 18-19 quality minutes a night. Derrick Nix at 6’9” and Adreian Payne at 6’10” provide the height that prevents teams from focusing exclusively on Green below, and the Nix/Payne combo is good for eight extra rebounds a night. In the backcourt Travis Trice and Austin Thornton only score five points apiece, but they both shoot better than 40 percent from behind the arc, making them a key X-factor in the one-game shots that are the NCAA Tournament.

The Spartans suffered all three of their conference losses in January, all were on the road, all were to good teams (Northwestern, Michigan, Illinois—before the Illini collapsed), and the latter two were by a combined three points. Since Super Bowl Sunday Michigan State has been a roll, and against the best the conference has to offer.

Michigan State beat Michigan by ten shortly before America watched the Patriots-Giants. The Spartans dominance of the glass was stunning, even by their standards, beating the Wolverines 39-15 on the boards, 16 of them by Green. A similar 41-22 edge keyed a pounding of Penn state. Then the game that really opened up eyes was a 58-48 win at Ohio State that moved Sparty into a tie for first, thanks to holding the Buckeyes to 26 percent shooting. The defense stayed in clampdown mode at home against Wisconsin, holding Jordan Taylor to 3-of-13 and the Badgers as a whole to 34 percent. Then on Sunday, Michigan State pulled away from a desperate Purdue team playing on its home floor, thanks to more tough defense—34 percent shooting for the Boilers and a 38-27 rebounding edge for the Spartans.

When you’re playing tough defense, forcing missed shots and rebounding the misses, it stands to reason you’ll win a lot of games. When you have depth it stands to reason you can survive the long haul-be it a 16-game conference schedule, or a 6-game NCAA Tournament. If you have a clear go-to player it stands to reason you can win a one-game shot.

So is this is an endorsement for Michigan State to win a national title? If this were an NBA playoff system, I’d probably lean their way, because I think in a best-of-seven situation their weaknesses behind the three-point line would be minimized and their strengths maximized. In a single-elimination format though, losing a three-point battle can kill you. I suspect if MSU is to win Izzo’s second national championship there will be at least one or two games where Trice or Thornton will have to contribute beyond what they’ve done so far this year, or somebody else will have to show an outside touch they haven’t yet shown. That’s why I’m not quite ready to go national championship. But viable contender? Absolutely. Big Ten champ? Why not. And that’s a heckuva lot more than any of us thought possible on that electric night on the San Diego carrier against North Carolina.

NEW MEXICO PULLS AWAY IN MOUNTAIN WEST

Another team no one expected to be at the top of the conference standings in late February is New Mexico. Yet Steve Alford’s team is not only leading the Mountain West, they’re in complete command, holding a two-game lead on UNLV and San Diego State.

The Lobos didn’t start strong, losing November games to New Mexico State and Santa Clara, and then barely escaping a terrible Arizona State squad. They got respectable wins over Missouri State and Oklahoma State and then a New Year’s Eve win over St. Louis, a victory that looks better with each day the Billikens push closer to the NCAA Tournament. But it’s in conference play that New Mexico has really stood out. They’ve split the four games with their two main rivals, but while Vegas and San Diego State have stumbled in bad spots, New Mexico has not. The Lobos are 3-0 against Colorado State and Wyoming, both still harboring hopes of the NCAAs themselves.

Senior power forward Drew Gordon is the star of this team with a 13/11 nightly average, while 6’7” Tony Snell is a tall perimeter player that can use his height to get his shot, and he hits 42 percent from three-point range. Kendall Williams is a good playmaker, at a solid shooter that teams can’t back off on defensively. There’s not a ton of depth, making the recent legal problems of senior forward A.J. Hardeman an even bigger concern. But if Hardeman is cleared to play after his recent arrest, New Mexico will be a threat in March.

A game tonight against a hungry Colorado State team that has to win is going to be tough, particularly coming off a week where New Mexico beat UNLV and San Diego State in succession. But even with a loss, that still leaves the Lobos with a one-game lead and three easy games to close the schedule.

New Mexico is currently projected as a #6 seed by Lunardi. If you compare them to projected #11s like UConn ,Long Beach State, Xavier and Washington, it’s certainly feasible to win a first-round game—I’d pick them over UConn or Xavier, not against Long Beach or Washington. Getting through the second round would be a war—it’s tough to see them beating 3-seeds like Marquette, Georgetown, Baylor or Michigan. Winning one game in the NCAA Tournament would be a significant deal for Alford’s team and two wins would likely require a big upset in a 3-14 game.

Whatever happens in March though, New Mexico is like Michigan State, in that they’re standing in a position where no one thought they’d be four months ago and for that they deserve all the credit.

San Diego State & UNLV Set The Pace In Mountain West Basketball

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Last year San Diego State shared the Mountain West title with BYU, got a #2 seed in the NCAA Tournament and reached the Sweet 16 before losing to eventual national champion UConn. After losing almost everyone from that team, it looked like Steve Fisher had a big rebuilding project ahead of him. Instead the Aztecs are off and rolling again. Last night’s win over Wyoming moved them to 4-0 in the conference and they’re ranked #12 nationally.

Last year’s team could muscle you up front, while the 2012 version is more backcourt-oriented. Chase Tapley, the one holdover in the starting lineup, averages 17 ppg and is adept shooting both inside and outside the arc. A pair of sophomores join him, including Xavier Thomas at the point and Jamaal Franklin, a 6’5” guard who’s ability to crash the glass from the wings creates matchup problems for smaller guards.

San Diego State needs consistency up front. Garrett Green, a 6’11” senior, could rebound a little bit more. If that happens Deshawn Stephens and Tim Shelton are fine in a supporting role. But one of this group needs to step up and be tough on the glass if the Aztecs are going to again move past just being a pretty good Mountain West team. Green is the most likely candidate to do that.

The Mountain West has lost BYU to independent status, but there’s still four other teams playing well enough to merit checking in on. That list starts with UNLV.

UNLV is 18-3, their only league loss is by a basket to San Diego State, and they’ve got all the weapons needed to keep a big year going. Forwards Chace Stanback and Mike Moser are the keys. Moser is a beast, averaging a 14/11 line, while Stanback kicks in a 15/5 each night. The backcourt is ably run by senior Oscar Bellfield, while Anthony Marshall is a versatile talent, who scores and rebounds and dishes. The one problem Lon Kruger has is that there’s no true three-point threat, and the depth behind Stanback and Moser is lacking.

Steve Alford’s program at New Mexico is a consistent contender, and while the Lobos are 1-2 in MWC play, both losses were the two teams discussed above, and the overall record is 15-4. New Mexico’s looking to get back into the NCAA Tournament after a one-year hiatus behind the able work of forward Drew Gordon, with his 13/11 per game average. Kendall Williams is a good quarterback running the offense, while 6’7” sophomore Tony Snell shoots the ball well enough to make defenses pay for collapsing around Gordon. The talent level is a little thin to think about winning a conference championship, but Gordon is good enough to push this team back into the Dance.

Wyoming has already beaten New Mexico, along with 13-5 Colorado State. Even with the loss last night, the Cowboys are 16-4 overall and hoping to ride their way into Mach behind a backcourt of Francisco Cruz and Luke Martinez, each of whom average 13 ppg. What concerns me about Wyoming is that this is another team without a real threat from downtown, and while Leonard Washington is a nice player at forward, and Adam Waddell a double-digit scorer on the frontline, the Cowboys aren’t going to win games by outmuscling people. Over the course of the long season, the guess here is that Wyoming slips behind New Mexico in the fight for third, which could be tantamount to a fight for an NCAA bid.

I have my doubts about Colorado State, but they are 2-1 in the league, so we’ll keep them in this conversation. They were beaten decisively by Wyoming and have yet to play UNLV, San Diego State or New Mexico. The Rams are very undersized, with no one running taller than 6’6” in the frontcourt, and the backcourt lacking any athletic board crashers. It’s no knock on guards Wes Eikmeier or Dorian Green, who combine for 30 a night, but they aren’t going to be nearly enough to keep this going as the schedule stiffens.

Overall, I would still consider UNLV to be the best team in the conference. Their loss to San Diego State was on the road and by a 69-67 final, so there’s every reason to think the Rebs can return the favor when the rematch takes place on February 11. Both will get top-6 seeding in the NCAA Tournament and I look for New Mexico to make it as well, barely scraping in and perhaps getting ticketed for the First Four.