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MLB wild-card games

Four On The Floor: The World Series Chances For The Cubs, Pirates, Astros & Yankees

Can any of the four wild-card teams in the baseball playoffs come out of the knockout games and make it all to the way to the World Series. Here’s a look at the chances for the Chicago Cubs, Pittsburgh Pirates, Houston Astros and New York Yankees. Please note these are not predictions regarding the wild-card games themselves, but an assessment of any of these four teams emulating what the San Francisco Giants did last year and that’s win the World Series.

Is it possible that Wednesday night’s Cubs-Pirates game from PNC Park is the most anticipated single game in baseball history? Consider that for about six weeks we’ve realistically known that these two teams would be playing and the odds were that it would be in Pittsburgh. Hard for any one baseball game to live up to that kind of anticipation, but these are both teams with enough strengths to make them interesting if they get a chance in a real series.

Any hope for Chicago lies at the top of its starting rotation with Jake Arrieta and Jon Lester. Arrieta, who deserves the NL Cy Young Award, will pitch Wednesday, meaning Lester would take Games 1 & 5 of a Division Series with St. Louis. Lester’s 3.34 ERA isn’t spectacular, but his career norm has been to be pretty good in the postseason and then elevate to ace status in October. He beat the Cardinals twice in the 2013 World Series and could do the same here.

The Cubs also have a steady offense. They put runners on base consistently, they hit for nice power and they have game-changers in corner infielders Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant. Another player to keep an eye on if they advance is left fielder Kyle Schwarber, who both gets on base and drives the ball for power.

The problem Chicago has is pitching depth. Do you trust Jason Hammel or Dan Haren at this stage of his career. Or Kyle Hendricks? Lester and Arrieta could pitch the Cubs into the NLCS by themselves, but then the series go best-of-seven. And even allowing that, Lester and Arrieta will face the best other staffs have to offer. I like Lester’s October ability as much as anyone, but I’m not ready to say anytime he faces, for example, John Lackey in St. Louis that it’s an automatic win. There’s inordinate pressure on these two pitchers. Joe Maddon will also need the Cubbie bullpen to step up in a big way.

Las Vegas says it’s 12-1 that the North Side erupts in celebration for the first time in over a century. I think the front office, led by the incomparable Theo Epstein, probably needs another year to shore up the rotation and bullpen before that’s doable.

Pittsburgh has no such problems with the bullpen. Mark Melancon closed 51/53 save chances. Tony Watson, Joakim Soria, Jared Hughes and Antonio Bastardo give manager Clint Hurdle a lot of arms to trot out in relief and the Pirates can show a very quick hook with their starters.

The problem is they might need to. This rotation is even more top-heavy than Chicago’s. Gerrit Cole is a legit ace, being overlooked on Wednesday as he goes against Arrieta. But while Francisco Liriano’s 3.38 ERA is comparable to Lester’s, Liriano has none of Lester’s October mojo. Not that Liriano has been bad in the postseason, but he hasn’t magically become an ace. There’s significant reason for concern deeper in the rotation.

Pittsburgh is similar to Chicago offensively. They’re pretty well-balanced throughout, both getting runners on and hitting for power. They have the postseason’s signature player in Andrew McCutchen, the best everyday talent left with Mike Trout and Bryce Harper at home.

Las Vegas also says 12-1 here. Again, I’d agree that when it comes to winning the World Series—not just winning tonight or even upsetting St. Louis, but winning three straight postseason series after using Cole on Wednesday—that the Pirates are one of the longer shots in the field.

Moving over to the American League, where the Astros and Yankees play tonight, who would have ever thought the proud Pinstripes would be underdogs in a one-game shot against Houston in the Bronx. But that’s the case with the Astros sending Cy Young hopeful Dallas Kuechel to the mound.

Kuechel carried the Houston rotation during the season, but there are reasons to think there might be more depth for the playoffs. While he and Collin McHugh were the only ones to make 30-plus starts, the Astros could have surprises lurking in someone like a Mike Fiers or Lance McCullers, who each have ERAs 3.32 or lower. Scott Kazmir has been a disappointment since being acquired from Oakland, but he’s also capable of stealing this team a win.

Houston is very reliant on power, more so than I’d like to see for a playoff team. It’s not easy against good pitching staffs in often colder weather to just start driving the ball. But at least the power is well-balanced, with Carlos Correa, Colby Rasmus, George Springer and Evan Gattis being solid long-ball threats. Jose Altuve has to be on base consistently for the Astros to make a long October run.

The Astros, at 16-1, are the longest of longshots in October. I have to agree. The bullpen is a serious liability. Luke Gregorson blew five saves in the closer’s role and his 3.10 ERA is high by the standards of a playoff closer who often has to pitch more than one inning and enter into tie games more frequently than during the regular season. Pat Neshek’s 3.62 ERA is also higher than the setup men for other teams.

That’s a great formula to get your heart ripped out and why Houston, even though they’re on the right track, isn’t about to imitate what Kansas City did out of last year’s wild-card game. The Royals ensured games were over after six. With the Astros, games will just be getting started after six.

Finally we come to the Yankees. Even though I’m an avowed Yankee-hater, the first thing that has to be done is send thoughts and prayers to C.C. Sabathia. The Yankee lefty entered alcohol rehab yesterday. As one who’s walked this path, I wish C.C. all the best and hope for his recovery.

Moving to the cold world of baseball analysis, the Yankee bullpen is their strength and weakness. If they get a lead after seven, the game’s over. Dellin Betances and Andrew Miller are the best 1-2 punch in the game for the last six outs. Getting there will be more interesting. Justin Wilson and Adam Warren have both promise and pitfalls. And the lack of depth in the Yankee rotation means they won’t get an automatic boost from dumping their fifth starter into the pen for the playoffs (and #4 starter for the Division Series).

The rotation is similarly thin. Ian Nova and Michael Pineda have been extremely inconsistent. The Yanks have a terrific young arm in Luis Severino who meets October pressure for the first time. I think he’ll probably be fine, but he and Masahiro Tanaka, who goes tonight, is thin for a playoff rotation.

Offensively, New York probably benefits from late-season injuries. Mark Teixeira is out, but for as good a season as he had, Teixeira has never been a clutch October player and replacement Greg Bird has hit 11 home runs in 157 at-bats. Robert Refsnyder is a similar upgrade at second base or Stephen Drew.

The Yankees have as potent a top four in their lineup as there will be in the postseason—Jacoby Ellsbury and Brett Gardner setting the table, Carlos Beltran and Alex Rodriguez coming in behind. But that presumes A-Rod plays to his season-long numbers, rather than his more recent slump or his general poor playoff history.

New York is 14-1 to win the World Series. I suppose you can design a scenario where they could do it, but that’s true of every team in the field. I never write this team off, but that’s only because I always keep my guard up against villainous intruders. It would take a lot to break right for them to go all the way.

What does Las Vegas say about these next two nights? With Kuechel on the mound, the Astros are a (-110) favorite to win the AL wild-card game (Tuesday, 8 PM ET, ESPN). There’s a strong consensus moving behind the Cubs and Arrieta in tomorrow’s NL showdown (Wednesday, 8 PM ET, TBS), with Chicago posted as a (-135) favorite.

Sizing Up The MLB Wild-Card Games

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The one-and-done battles of the baseball playoffs go the next two nights, with MLB wild-card games on tap for Tuesday and Wednesday. The Bay Area is going on the road, with the Oakland A’s traveling to Kansas City for Tuesday night, and the San Francisco Giants packing up for Pittsburgh on Wednesday night. Here’s some thoughts on each game…

Oakland-Kansas City (Tuesday, 8 PM ET, TBS): This is the game Jon Lester was brought to Oakland to pitch. Well, maybe not literally, as the A’s acquired the lefty from Boston when it was hoped that Oakland would be rolling into October as a #1 seed (can I tell how weird it still feels to use the term “1-seed” in baseball?), rather than a barely surviving wild-card.
But Lester, who won Games 1 & 5 of the 2013 World Series for the Red Sox and would have been Series MVP if not for the insane offensive show put on by David Ortiz, was acquired by Oakland precisely because they wanted a money pitcher for a must-win game.
BaseballKansas City counters with James Shields, with no shortage of postseason experience of his own. Shields and Lester were combatants in the great 2008 American League Championship Series played between Boston and Tampa Bay, though they never pitched against each other. Whatever happens tonight in KC, it won’t be because the pitchers can’t handle the stage.
Both of these teams are serious threats on paper to do damage the rest of the way, as the Los Angeles Angels await the winner. Each team has the starting pitching depth to survive having to burn the #1 starter in this game and not be available until Game 3 of the Division Series. But the Royals are playing reasonably well, while the A’s have backtracked into October.
I also think Kansas City is a really good team, and instead of celebrating Ned Yost for his managerial efforts here, we should be asking why he couldn’t make the playoffs last year. Harsh yes, but it’s only the Royals’ nearly thirty years of incompetence prior to this that is avoiding the question being asked.
Las Vegas is split on this game, with each team slotted at (-105) on the betting line, a pick’em game. The Over/Under is a low 6.5, indicating the respect for Lester and Shields. While I think KC is the bigger long-term threat, I think Lester gets it done tonight and Oakland advances.

San Francisco-Pittsburgh (8 PM ET, ESPN): PNC Park in Pittsburgh becomes the first stadium to host consecutive wild-card games. The Pirates are also the only home team to win one of these virtual “play-in” games, when they beat Cincinnati last year, with no small bit of help from the home crowd that appeared to rattle Reds’ starter Johnny Cueto. Other than that, home teams lost the other three wild-card games played in 2012-13.
Oddsmakers are saying another road team wins here, with the Giants as a (-115) favorite. San Francisco is certainly better situated for this game, with Madison Bumgarner ready to roll. Pittsburgh is going with Edinson Volquez, which simply doesn’t make me comfortable. The Pirates have a nice balanced rotation and a good bullpen, but those aren’t attributes that help you in any short series, much less a one-game shot.
But in spite of that, I’m picking Pittsburgh. Part of it some residual loyalty to the town that I lived in for nine years (1999-2007) with a host of great memories. Another part is that I think Andrew McCutcheon can have a monster game and lift his team. That’s a risky thing to pick in baseball, but I’m going to take a shot.
If the Pirates do win, they’re the hottest team in baseball and would get some security of at least having a best-of-five cushion to fall back on, with the Washington Nationals up next. Pittsburgh’s pitching depth could again become more of an asset. If they survive Wednesday, I expect to see the Pirates in the NLCS.
I can’t say the same for San Francisco, whose rotation is too dependent on Bumgarner. Had they won the NL West and were able to pitch the lefty in Games 1 & 5, that would be different. As it is, if the Giants play the Nats, they’ll probably be in a 2-0 series hole by the time their ace gets the ball.

MLB Playoffs: Road Teams Advance On Wild-Card Friday

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The first-ever wild-card Friday for the MLB playoffs went down yesterday and the road teams held sway, as St. Louis beat Atlanta and Baltimore ousted Texas, thus earning their spots in the Division Series round that begins today. The talk in the media right now is about the disputed infield fly in Atlanta, and we’ll get that further down. But let’s start by briefly looking at the keys to the wins by the Cards & Orioles…

St. Louis 6 Atlanta 3: The Cardinals were opportunistic, while the Braves kicked the ball around and couldn’t get a key hit to save their lives—or in this case, their season. Kris Medlen pitched well enough to win for Atlanta and was staked to a 2-zip lead, but a huge error in the fourth inning by Chipper Jones, playing his final game, cut the lead to 2-1 and set up St. Loo with runners on second and third. In a situation the Braves would fail in most of the night, St. Louis got consecutive productive outs from Yadier Molina and David Freese to bring both runs home.

A Matt Holliday home run and a couple more Atlanta errors stretched it to 6-2, but now it was St. Louis’ time to start melting down. Setup man Mitchell Boggs never looked comfortable in the eighth, and there were runners on first and second with one out and the lead cut to 6-3. Then St. Louis shortstop Pete Kozma had a miscommunication with Holliday on ball at least sixty feet into left field and it fell. Only it was ruled an infield fly. The Cards were bailed out, and closer Jason Motte got out of the inning and then finished the game after Atlanta again got two on with two out. St. Louis now moves into a Division Series matchup with Washington that will begin on the banks of the Mississippi River on Sunday.

Baltimore 5 Texas 1: The Rangers had men on first and third with nobody out in the first inning. Even though Baltimore had scored first, the bottom half of the frame had the feel of what even those of us how picked the Birds were watching for—the quick strike by Texas. Only Josh Hamilton hit into a room service 4-6-3 double play, and even though the game was tied, Baltimore starter Joe Saunders dodged the bullet. It set a tone the rest of the night. Texas hit into two more double plays. Hamilton, playing possibly his final game as a Ranger went 0-for-4, wasting two-hit nights from Ian Kinsler and Elvis Andrus in front of him.

Saunders worked into the sixth inning and the Oriole bullpen took over from there, with great work from former Texas setup man Darren O’Day. Baltimore got the lead in the sixth and eventually pulled away with a mix of key hits and productive outs. Closer Jim Johnson made things a little interesting in the ninth, allowing Texas to load the bases with two outs and bringing David Murphy to the plate as the tying run. But Murphy hit a harmless fly ball to left. Baltimore’s going to the Division Series to play New York. Texas goes into a very long offseason. The two-time defending AL champs just lost four straight to the two Cinderella stories of 2012 in Oakland and Baltimore—a win in just one would have put them in the Division Series, either as AL West champ or wild-card winner. Hamilton has the look of someone looking to get out of town. We’ll have to see how the Texas front office responds to this meltdown.

Now, let’s double back to the National League game and focus on the infield fly. This was clearly an atrocious call—as in NFL replacement ref kind of bad. To be an infield fly, a ball has to require ordinary effort and its purpose—ironically in this case—is to protect the offense, so infielders can’t allow a ball to intentionally drop and turn a double play, or replace a fast baserunner with a  slow one. Neither situation applied here.

While the pop fly hit is certainly one you expect to turned into an out, the mere fact it was a situation where Holliday and Kozma had to decide whose ball it was eliminates that rationale. And while there’s no rule saying an infield fly can’t happen in the outfield grass, the fact it was sixty feet deep means a double play was not realistic.

Furthermore, there’s no reason to consider the miscommunication some huge shock—watch enough baseball games, you see it happen on either side of the outfield more than enough times every year. Finally, if you happened to see the play, just ask yourself this—of all the similar pop flies you’ve watched as a baseball fan, how often have you seen the rule applied that way? It’s a first for me.

So did the call cost Atlanta the game? We touched on the Braves’ self-induced mistakes above, so obviously they have to look in the mirror. But the eighth inning, even prior to this play, had the feel of the Cardinals being ready to do their own meltdown and they were bailed out of it. The only thing I could really give St. Louis fans is this—maybe this call can be a small down payment for Don Denkinger in the 1985 World Series. A small down payment.

The Division Series matchups of Oakland-Detroit and Cincinnati-San Francisco begin tonight at 6 PM ET on TBS with a doubleheader. By the end of the morning, TheSportsNotebook will have previews of both up by the end of the morning, and then look for previews of St. Louis-Washington & Baltimore-NY Yanks, which start on Sunday, to go up later on tonight.

MLB Playoffs: Wild-Card Kickoff Tonight

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The MLB playoffs start tonight at 5 PM ET with a game that’s everything Bud Selig could have hoped for when he instituted this AL/NL doubleheader f one-game knockouts. The first game will be St. Louis visiting Atlanta. Here we have the two teams that were the National League side of last year’s wild finish, when the Cardinals overtook the Braves on the final day of the season. And we have Atlanta legend Chipper Jones potentially playing his final game. Yes, this wild-card game knockout is a good idea.

We’ve also got both of last year’s World Series teams playing for their lives. Along with St. Louis, Texas is shockingly playing in the nightcap when they host Baltimore. The Rangers needed one win in three tries against Oakland to clinch the AL West, and couldn’t do it. Now we’ve got the two-time American League pennant winners, in the midst of a hard September fade, having to fight for its life against one of the sport’s great Cinderella stories in the Orioles—who, by the way are led by a former Texas skipper in Buck Showalter. Yes, this wild-card game knockout is a good idea and is making for some great theatre.

Atlanta has realistically known they would be in this game for a couple weeks, at minimum. The Braves pulled away in the wild-card race, and while the NL East title was always a possibility, they never got closer than three games. So it’s logical that manager Fredi Gonzalez has his best starter, Kris Medlen, lined up for this game. Medlen came back from elbow surgery and faced with the need to limit his innings, Atlanta showed the foresight that Washington did not do with Stephen Strasburg. The Braves just started Medlen’s season later and now he’s 10-1 with a 1.57 ERA, the best pitcher in baseball since his return.

St. Louis didn’t have the same luxury, going to the regular season’s penultimate day before clinching the wild-card, but it’s still worked out for them. One could argue the Cards would be better served if Adam Wainwright or Chris Carpenter were available to pitch this game, but Kyle Lohse has been the team’s best all season long, at 16-3 with a 2.86 ERA.

The fact the Cardinals could open the Division Series on Sunday with Wainwright and Carpenter make them a more realistic threat to top-seeded Washington, who awaits tonight’s winner. But for a one-game shot, I’d take my chances with Medlen, the home team and a passionate home crowd hoping they get to see Chipper in action again this weekend.

Las Vegas agrees, and Atlanta is a heavy (-170) favorite tonight. For those unfamiliar with moneyline betting terms, it means you have to bet $170 to win $100, whereas if you take the underdog, you get (+160), meaning a $100 bet brings a $160 return. That’s a heavier number than I’d be comfortable with, given the presence of Matt Holliday, Carlos Beltran, Yadier Molina and David Freese in the St. Louis lineup. But at night’s end, the odds still say it’s Atlanta that moves on.

Texas is an even bigger favorite at (-190), as they send ace Yu Darvish to the mound. Baltimore will counter with Joe Saunders. Darvish’s numbers are better—the ERA is 3.90 compared to 4.07 and when you consider Saunders spent more than four months of the season in the National League pitching to DH-less lineups, the contrast is even sharper. But since being acquired by the Orioles, Saunders has turned in six consecutive solid outings. None have been against the caliber of a lineup he’ll face tonight,  but Saunders has postseason experience from his days with Mike Scoscia’s Angels in the late ‘00s.

Given those odds, I’d take my chances with the Orioles tonight. Texas is on a hard slump and while Darvish is their best arm, I don’t think of him as true stopper material. And Baltimore’s bullpen is nearly limitless, giving them an edge in any game that’s tight after five innings. If Texas is going to win it would be the bats opening up early on Saunders, but if its close, is anyone ready to say the Oriole Magic that’s been going all summer long wouldn’t pull it out. That’s why I’m leaning the Birds tonight.

The winners of each game host Washington and the NY Yanks on Sunday to begin Division Series play. They’re hosting because of baseball’s bizarre decision to have the lower-seeded teams open these series at home, with the favorite getting the final three.