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MLB Coverage: The Memorial Day Overview

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TheSportsNotebook’s MLB coverage for Memorial Day will be a soundbite-oriented overview of the entire league, as we run through each division and sum up all thirty teams in one sentence…

AL EAST

NY Yankees (30-19): Outstanding pitching has kept the Yankees going while their starting lineup is decimated by injuries.
Boston (31-20): The Red Sox are playing steady and consistent, with the emergence of leftfielder Danny Nava being the X-factor the team needed.
Baltimore (27-23): Chris Davis leads a potent offense that’s covering for closer Jim Johnson, who keeps coughing up save opportunities.
Tampa Bay (25-24): It’s the offense that outpacing the pitching in Tampa Bay, as they wait for David Price to get healthy and effective.
Toronto (21-29): The starting pitching trio of R.A. Dickey, Mark Buehrle and Josh Johnson has ranged from disappointing to disastrous.

Comment: I picked the Yankees to win a division where no one would exceed 90 wins at the start of the season, and for the AL East to sweep both wild-card spots. There’s not a lot of reason to change course, although the complete collapse of Toronto makes it likely than one or two teams will be able to break the 90-win barrier. I’ll stay with Tampa and Baltimore to be those teams, given that if Johnson and Fernando Rodney get things figured out, each team will move up quickly.

AL CENTRAL

Detroit (28-20): An extraordinary offense that leads the league in runs scored while playing in a pitcher’s park is the best of this team’s many virtues.
Cleveland (27-22): A pleasant surprise thanks to their lineup and bullpen, but how long can you win giving at-bats to Jason Giambi and innings to Steve Kazmir?
Chicago White Sox (24-24): The White Sox keep hanging around and waiting for the offense to help out a high-quality pitching staff.
Kansas City (21-26): KC has slumped badly of late, because Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas are early leaders in the race for most disappointing young players.
Minnesota (19-28): They’re in a slump, the injuries have piled up and the rebuilding with young players is in full force.

Comment: Detroit was my preseason choice to run away with the division and win the World Series. The former pick was pretty chalk and now that the bullpen is looking stabilized, I think it’s only a matter of time before the Tigers put some distance between themselves and the rest of the AL Central. I’m not buying on Cleveland because of their pitching, and for the same reason, I expect Kansas City to at least get back in the wild-card discussion.

AL WEST

Texas (32-18): In spite of all the injuries to the starting pitching, the Rangers keep plugging in replacements and have turned out the staff with the American League’s best ERA.
Oakland (28-23): The A’s have started to play well of late, and if their starting pitching returns to form another second-half surge could be in the offing.
LA Angels (23-27): Josh Hamilton has found his power stroke and the Angels have started to win some games, but have they again waited too long to get started?
Seattle (21-29): Justin Smoak is another disappointing everyday player and the Mariners’ inept offense is letting the King Felix-Hisashi Iwakuma 1-2 punch in the rotation go to waste.
Houston (14-36): Second baseman Jose Altuve is a deserving All-Staron a team that’s as bad as preseason reviews said they would be.

Comment: At the start of the season I said Texas was overrated and headed for a sub-.500 year. I’m repenting on that. Oakland and LAA will be in the playoff conversation and have some runs ahead of them, but the Rangers are going to get their veteran pitching back from the disabled list this summer and there will be no September collapse in Dallas this year.

NL EAST

Atlanta (30-19): A big start from Justin Upton in the everyday lineup, a good start from Mike Minor in the rotation and replenishment in the bullpen have kept the Braves playing steady baseball.
Washington (26-24): The offense has been lousy, Jayson Werth being the big culprit and the starting pitching has to kick it up just a notch, starting with Gio Gonzalez.
Philadelphia (24-26): Philly is really fortunate to be close to .500, but they’ve brought up some young pitchers and the worst may be past.
NY Mets (18-29): An immensely disappointing starting rotation past Matt Harvey is the reason the Mets are below expectations.
Miami (13-37): We knew the Marlins were bad, but one game worse than the Astros?

Comment: I’m staying with Washington as the pick win this division, as I think they’re shortcomings are getting too much attention in the media. They’re only 4 ½ games out and I think Atlanta’s overachieved. I’ve liked Philadelphia all year, and I’m going to stay a little stubborn on this point. The coming weeks are crucial for the Phils if they’re going to make a move.

NL CENTRAL

St. Louis (32-17): The lineup is producing and the starting pitching has elevated to a new level, although a recent run of injuries make the coming weeks a testing time in St. Louis.
Cincinnati (31-19): Cincy can hit for power, they have starting pitching and Aroldis Chapman owns the ninth, but they need to put runners in base and get the middle relief straightened out.
Pittsburgh (31-19): A great bullpen is carrying a solid pitching staff, and now the Pirates just need Andrew McCutchen to go from good to MVP-caliber again.
Milwaukee (19-29): Starting pitching has been absolutely awful, making the Brewers one of baseball’s big early season disappointments.
Chicago Cubs (19-30): Given the Cubs were considered on a par with the Marlins, this record isn’t bad, and now they have Matt Garza back.

Comment: St. Louis was my preseason choice to make the World Series and I feel even more confident about that today than when the pick was originally made. Cincinnati is a playoff team that will continue to challenge for the NL Central. I’m not ready to buy on Pittsburgh—after last September, they have to prove it to me for a full year before I’ll ever buy in again. I expect the Brewers to move back to respectability, but the early hole is too deep.

NL WEST

San Francisco (28-22): Buster Posey is delivering another MVP-worthy season,as it’s the offense winning games while the Giants wait for the pitching to click again.
Arizona (28-22): Rookie starting pitcher Patrick Corbin has been brilliant, the most noteworthy part of a season that’s been quietly consistent.
Colorado (27-23): The Rockies have hung in longer than I thought thanks to their offense and enough pitching to get by.
San Diego (22-27): When you’re seventh in the National League in runs and 13th in ERA while playing in Petco Park, how big would be the chasm between pitching and hitting be in a normal park?
LA Dodgers (20-28): Something not getting nearly enough play is that in spite of their struggling offense, the Dodgers are fifth in the NL in on-base percentage. So if they key hits come, the wins will too (okay, that was two sentences).

Comment: Arizona was my preseason choice and I like the way it’s shaping up. I am impressed with the way San Francisco kept winning in spite of a slow start from Matt Cain. Now the ace is pitching better, and I’d move the Giants ahead of the Phillies—my preseason #2 wild-card—in the playoff discussion.

OVERALL: As alluded to above, I had Detroit and St. Louis as my World Series teams when the year began, and that holds firm. The only playoff picks that have changed would be to replaced Texas over LAA in the AL West and San Francisco over Philly as the opponent for Cincinnati in the wild-card game.

MLB Playoff Race: Labor Day Overview

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Down the stretch they come! With thirty days left to the end of the MLB regular season, 15 teams are in legitimate contention for a playoff berth and four of the six division titles look genuinely up for grabs. With Labor Day baseball about an hour away as this goes online let’s take a look at the landscape for the MLB playoff race.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

AL EAST
NY Yankees: 76-57
Baltimore: 74-59
Tampa Bay: 73-61

AL CENTRAL
Detroit: 72-61
ChiSox: 72-61

AL WEST
Texas: 79-54
Oakland: 76-57
LA Angels: 71-63

WILD-CARD
Oakland/Baltimore
Tampa Bay: 1.5 back
AL Central runner-up: 2 back
LA Angels: 3.5 back

The surprises that are the Oakland A’s and Baltimore Orioles can be summarized by this—if you were in Las Vegas this March, and stepped up to the window to bet either team to go Over their preseason win projections, you are already eligible to collect. The A’s and O’s have already exceeded informed expectations and not only would they be the wild-card game if the season ended today, each has improbably launched pushes at the division crown. Oakland has won nine in a row to put the heat on Texas, while Baltimore captured a weekend series in New York to close within two games of the Yanks.

New York or Texas each has significant question marks in their starting rotations, meaning we can’t just assume they’ll right the ship in September. Certainly the Yanks and Rangers have the offense and they have the crunch-time experience that they can step it up and pull right back away. But when you don’t have confidence in what you’re going to get from the starting pitching, nothing is for certain. I already felt like this would turn the AL playoffs into a shootout where anyone had a chance, but I can’t say I was expecting the AL East and AL West races to tighten. With the Yankees opening the week by playing three games in Tampa, then closing with four more in Baltimore, crunch time is certainly here for Joe Girardi’s team.

We might further add that given how tight the wild-card race if New York or Texas slips from their perch, even the one-game showdown is not a guaranteed fallback. Detroit swept Chicago to pull even in the AL Central and it also means the two teams are each right in the wild-card race. Tampa Bay is right there. And the Angels, with all that talent in the everyday lineup and the starting rotation can at least know that the shorter the season becomes the less that bullpen depth—the Halos’ big flaw—matters.

The Yanks-Rays is the highlight series of the early week and will be on MLB-TV this afternoon and ESPN tomorrow night, but don’t overlook the Angels-A’s battle out west. The AL Central rivals play the bottom of the division, as the Tigers host Cleveland and the White Sox have Minnesota coming to town. Kansas City, another AL Central also-ran, hosts Texas. And Buck Showalter’s Orioles have to keep their focus after the emotional weekend in New York when they go to Toronto. With these games sandwiched in between the seven battles with the Yanks it’ll be interesting to see how the youthful Birds do with keeping focus on the road.

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NATIONAL LEAGUE

NL EAST
Washington: 81-52
Atlanta: 75-59

NL CENTRAL
Cincinnati: 82-53
St. Louis: 72-62
Pittsburgh: 70-63

NL WEST
San Francisco: 76-58
LA Dodgers: 72-63

WILD-CARD
Atlanta/St. Louis
LA Dodgers: 0.5 back
Pittsburgh: 1.5 back

If the postseason started today the wild-card game would be St. Louis visiting Atlanta. This would be a one-game battle that brought together the two teams involved in last year’s crazy race to the finish line, with the Cards completing a historic comeback from 10.5 games back in late August. It would involve the defending World Series champions. And, by the way, it would be played in Atlanta for potentially the final game of Chipper Jones’ soon-to-be Hall of Fame career. At that point I think Bud Selig gives himself a pat on the back and says “Yes, I like this new concept.”

The Dodgers have slumped since the mega-trade with Boston and allowed San Francisco to open up some room in the NL West, but just a half-game off the pace set by St. Louis, and with the best pitcher of any National League contender in Clayton Kershaw, plus Josh Beckett, the Dodgers have the rotation best suited to playoff-type games—at least among the wild-card teams.  Now it’s going to be about whether the Adrian Gonzalez/Matt Kemp/Andre Ethier trio can produce the runs and if Don Mattingly can manage his way through the late innings now that Kenley Jansen is gone for the year.

Most fans probably heard the announcement yesterday that September 12 is now official as the shutdown date for Stephen Strasburg. With Washington comfortably ahead in the NL East race this likely doesn’t cost the Nats the division title, but the combination of Strasburg sitting down and Joey Votto returning means you have to pencil in Cincinnati for the top spot in the NL playoffs.

As far as matchups go the early part of this week, it’s kind of blasé. None of the seven teams contending go head-to-head with each other. Pittsburgh is the one I’d circle as facing the must-win spot. They’ve got struggling pitching, they’ve got both the Dodgers and Cardinals to beat out and they’ve got the Astros coming into the Steel City. If ever there were games you had to win, the next three days with woeful Houston have to qualify.

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SPORTSNOTEBOOK PREDICTIONS

AL EAST: Tampa Bay—When Mariano Rivera got hurt, I thought the Rays would take off as soon as Evan Longoria got back. I didn’t think that would take all summer, but Longoria is back, the margin is still 3.5 games and the Rays’ starting pitching is the best in baseball.

AL CENTRAL: Detroit—After all the ups and downs, the Tigers are back to even with the superstar talent in the lineup (Miguel Cabrera/Prince Fielder) in the rotation (Justin Verlander) and in the dugout (Jim Leyland), you have to like them to finally fulfill preseason expectations.

AL WEST: Texas—Having won nine straight, Oakland is too hot not to cool down for just a few days and that’s all it will take to give the Rangers the breathing room they need to hold off the charge. Texas also takes the #1 seed in the AL playoffs.

WILD-CARD GAME: Oakland-NY Yanks—I really want to pick Baltimore, and they’re starting pitching is getting better as the season wears on, but I’m really curious how they react to this sandwich series against Toronto and then having all the expectations of the home crowd coming up in the four-game set with New York over the weekend.

NL EAST: Washington—the margin’s too big to think otherwise.

NL CENTRAL: Cincinnati—Ditto.

NL WEST: San Francisco—Close to ditto. 4.5 games is not insignificant at this point in the year and the pitching of Frisco guards against a sustained losing streak.

WILD-CARD GAME—LA Dodgers-Atlanta—As much I like the Cards-Braves scenario outlined above, I like Beckett to pitch better down the stretch and form a 1-2 punch with Kershaw that gets the Dodgers over the top.

MLB Opening Day: Final Baseball Predictions

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Opening Night is here in Major League Baseball, as St. Louis visits Miami to open the season tonight on ESPN at 7 PM ET. TheSportsNotebook makes its final predictions. Below are picks on each team’s record, along with the Las Vegas odds on their chances to win the division, pennant and World Series. I’ve also included a link to the individual team previews that have run here throughout March, and as a special bonus offered some of the same betting opinions that should be sampled with the same caution one would take on a medicine bottle marked “poison.”  By of reminder, remember that each league now gets two wild-card teams in the postseason, with the two teams meeting in a one-game showdown to reach the Division Series. With that, let’s conclude the buildup to the baseball season here at TheSportsNotebook..

AL EAST
New York Yankees: 92-70 (5-6, 7-2, 7-1)
Toronto Blue Jays: 87-75 (9-4, 25-1, 50-1)
Boston Red Sox: 86-76 (4-1, 5-1, 10-1)
Tampa Bay Rays: 85-77 (10-1, 9-1, 17-1)
Baltimore Orioles: 64-98 (80-1, 100-1, 200-1)

As the final records note I see an entertaining three-team race for what will amount to the final playoff berth in the new format. Two days ago I was set to overlook my doubts about my own team, the Red Sox and pencil them in for that spot. Then Andrew Bailey got hurt. Now both Boston and Tampa Bay have issues in the bullpen and Toronto is solid on the back end. The Blue Jays need some extra starting pitchers to stand up, so taking them for second place is still a risk, but while baseball isn’t the NCAA Tournament or the NHL playoffs, you still need to grab for a surprise team somewhere and an improved Blue Jay squad is it.  One more note: I may be picking the Yankees to win the division, but those 5-6 odds are crazy when you have three viable contenders right behind them.

AL CENTRAL
Detroit Tigers: 90-72 (2-9, 3-1, 6-1)
Minnesota Twins: 83-79 (12-1, 50-1, 100-1)
Kansas City Royals: 82-80 (8-1, 30-1, 60-1)
Chicago White Sox: 80-82 (20-1, 40-1, 80-1)
Cleveland Indians:  78-84 (8-1, 30-1, 60-1)

I’m not as high on Detroit as a lot of people are, but they’re still decisively the best in the Central, and while I would never bet a team at 2-9, I think those odds are fair. I like Minnesota to have a big bounceback year and stay in the wild-card hunt most of the way. While the Twins improve through a return to the good fundamental baseball that marked their play from 2002-10, the Royals improve because of the continual infusion of young talent. And though I have the White Sox sub-.500, if you’re someone who likes to bet a longshot, take a look at those odds, especially the 20-1 just to win the AL Central. White Sox pitching is a tease—that’s why I’m skeptical, but if any team is going to break out of the pack and challenge Tiger rule, it would be President Obama’s boys on the South Side.

AL WEST
Los Angeles Angels: 95-67 (4-5, 3-1, 6-1)
Texas Rangers:  93-69 (1-1, 4-1, 8-1)
Seattle Mariners: 72-90 (25-1, 50-1, 100-1)
Oakland A’s: 62-100 (25-1, 50-1, 100-1)

Oddmakers aren’t stupid. If you bet equal amounts on the Angels and Rangers to win the division you still lose money, with Texas being even and LAA being  a little less. That underscores just how sharp the divide is in this division between the two powers and the two lousy teams. What strikes me about Seattle and Oakland’s odds for the pennant and World Series is if you compare them to Baltimore, why do people think the A’s are better than the Orioles? Read through the team previews, check out the personnel and please tell me. Oakland’s a hopeless case until they get their stadium issues resolves and get a renewed commitment to winning.

AMERICAN LEAGUE PLAYOFF OUTLOOK: I’ve got Toronto and Texas in the one-game wild-card showdown. And I won’t get cute with playoff scenarios this far in advance—there’s no reason to think the Yankees, Tigers or Rangers are better suited to win a short series than the Angels are, so having LAA as the team with the best record means I’ll pick them to reach the World Series. The 3-1 price is pretty tight. If you’re looking for greater value on a pennant-winning bet, the team I’d check would be one I think will miss the playoffs—Tampa Bay is 9-1 and if they make the postseason, it means they’re starting pitching was dominant, and that gives them a very reasonable chance and pushing through to the World Series.

NL EAST
Atlanta Braves: 89-73 (4-1, 13-2, 16-1)
Miami Marlins: 88-74 (4-1, 8-1, 20-1)
Washington Nationals: 85-77 (13-2, 13-1, 30-1)
Philadelphia Phillies: 85-77 (5-8, 5-2, 6-1)
New York Mets: 77-85 (40-1, 40-1, 100-1)

I realize I’m bucking the tide on the Philadelphia Phillies. Will Fairbanks here at TheSportsNotebook says they’re still the best team in baseball. A good friend of mine has picked the Phils to win the World Series. I’m saying otherwise. I’m nervous about the Braves—the psychological side effects from their September collapse may linger, but even if they come up short, I really like the Marlins now in the Ozzie Guillen-era, and it’s Washington’s time to step up. If you’re a bettor, just place equal amounts on the Braves, Marlins and Nationals to win the NL East and grind out a small profit by essentially betting against the Phils and ruling out the Mets.

NL CENTRAL
St. Louis Cardinals: 90-72 (7-2, 15-1, 35-1)
Milwaukee Brewers: 86-76 (9-5, 11-1, 25-1)
Cincinnati Reds: 83-79 (11-10, 13-2, 15-1)
Pittsburgh Pirates: 73-89 (17-1, 25-1, 80-1)
Chicago Cubs: 70-92 (17-1, 25-1, 60-1)
Houston Astros: 59-103 (120-1, 40-1, 300-1)

Cincinnati’s the favorite, but I think people are focusing too much on what St. Louis lost (Albert Pujols) and not enough on what they have (read the team preview for more) and especially what they have coming back (Starting pitcher Adam Wainwright who missed all of last season). The Brewers are another team I’m nervous about, but if Yovani Gallardo and Zack Greinke take the next step from good to great (a step Greinke already showed he could take back in 2009 with Kansas City) than the Brewers will finish second and sneak off with a  wild-card spot.

NL WEST
Arizona Diamondbacks: 90-72 (8-5, 8-1, 20-1)
San Francisco Giants: 85-77 (7-5, 13-2, 16-1)
Los Angeles Dodgers: 76-86 (7-1, 17-1, 40-1)
Colorado Rockies: 75-87 (5-1, 15-1, 35-1)
San Diego Padres: 67-95 (12-1, 125-1 100-1)

I’ve got my doubts about all these teams, but Arizona’s got the best balanced team and the best manager. It’s also managerial factors that lead me to give the Dodgers a slight edge over the Rockies—nothing against Colorado’s Jim Tracy, but I was really impressed with the job Don Mattingly did in Los Angeles, and I hope Magic Johnson’s ownership group gives Mattingly the opportunity to still be there when the organization finally digs itself out from under the Frank McCourt mess. San Diego’s a team I could see playing better, but there’s only so many wins to go around.

NATIONAL LEAGUE PLAYOFF OUTLOOK: I’ve got a Milwaukee-Miami matchup in the wild-card game, but and I’m half-expecting there to be further playoffs prior, so close are the top four teams in the East, the top three in the Central and the top two in the West. To be frank, I don’t like any of these teams are World Series possibilities, but the rules do say one of them will make it. If Chris Carpenter gets healthy, I’ll say he and Adam Wainwright pitch St. Louis back to the Fall Classic.

WORLD SERIES OUTLOOK: Yeah, I went shameless and picked a Cardinals-Angels World Series that any NCAA Tournament bracket designer would have gone out of their way to create. And again, if St. Louis is really still playing baseball at this point it will mean Carpenter and Wainwright will be hitting on all cylinders and the vets are healthy, giving them at least a chance. But if LAA survives Texas and New York in the American League, they’ll survive St. Louis and go on to win Mike Scoscia’s second World Series on the 10-year anniversary of his first.