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MLB Division Series

MLB Playoffs: Baltimore & St. Louis Bounce Back

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Two teams with very different recent pedigrees—the St. Louis Cardinals & the Baltimore Orioles stared death in the face on Monday—at least for all practical purposes—as they took the field for Game 2 of their respective Game 2s in the Division Series of the MLB playoffs, and each came up with a win for the home crowd that knotted things up at a game apiece. Let’s look back on the keys to Monday’s games, and ahead to Tuesday…

Baltimore 3 NY Yanks 2: It was the reverse of Sunday night’s opener, a game where New York made a couple key baserunning mistakes, but still managed to win. On Monday it was Baltimore who cost themselves two runs due to plays on the bases.

One of them came on defense right out of the box. Rightfielder Chris Davis had Ichiro Suzuki gunned at the plate with room to spare. Ichiro eluded the tag of Oriole catcher Matt Wieters, overran home plate and then dove back just ahead of Wieters to get his hand. You can actually make a pretty good case that this was less a Wieters mistake, then a tremendous effort by Suzuki, in getting his hand up and over the tag to touch home plate.

The second was an inexcusable error by Baltimore’s J.J. Hardy. With runners on first and second and two outs, Adam Jones grounded a ball in the hole. It went off the glove of Derek Jeter (it would have been an infield hit in either case and was scored as such) and trickled into left field. Hardy, looking over his shoulder, thought Jeter had gotten the ball and held at third when he could have scored easily. TBS commentators John Smoltz and Cal Ripken each made excuses for Hardy. They all sounded reasonable except for one problem—the third-base coach was in plain view cranking his arm like a windmill!!!

Like Mark Teixeira dogging it out of the box in Game 1 and costing himself a key double, Hardy is not alone in this mistake. It seems every player in MLB has decided base coaches are superfluous ornaments these days. This video needs to be sent to youth baseball coaches around the country.

Since Baltimore won the game I suppose I should talk about some things they did well. It starts with Wei-Yin Chen, who worked into the seventh inning and gave up just two runs. Chen survived a shaky first when he needed a line-drive double play that preceded the play by Ichiro noted above. And he got himself out of a bases-loaded one-out jam in the fourth.

Otherwise Chen, making his first postseason start, outdueled grizzled October veteran Andy Pettite. The Yankee lefthander pitched well, but had a bout of sudden loss of command in the third, and was touched for a crucial run in the sixth. Pettite still delivered a 7 IP/3 ER night that would be enough to win most games. The night ended with a big relief for Baltimore fans, quite literally, as Jim Johnson set the side down without incident in the ninth. After Johnson’s erratic close in the wild-card win over Texas and his Game 1 meltdown, the Orioles needed some assurance that their closer wasn’t losing it.

St. Louis 12 Washington 4: It was shades of postseasons past for two players. After Washington had grabbed a 1-0 lead and put a little pressure on the Cardinals, David Freese stepped up and delivered an RBI double to quickly tie it back up and restore some order. The 2011 postseason hero has hit well in both games of this series. Then Carlos Beltran conjured up shades of 2004 when he was in a Houston Astros uniform and utterly dominated the National League playoffs, including against these Cardinals, even if St. Louis did ultimately win a seven-game NLCS. Beltran went deep twice and helped keep the Nats at bay in the later innings.

St. Louis, as the twelve runs indicate, got contributions up and down the lineup, including three hits from Allen Craig and an unlikely home run from Daniel Descalco. It was necessary, because the St. Louis middle relief was a little shaky. Mike Matheny had a quick hook, pulling Jaime Garcia after he gave up the second-inning run and going to Lance Lynn. But the Nats touched Lynn for home runs by Adam LaRoche and Ryan Zimmerman, and later on in the game Edwin Mujica also surrendered a run.

What the Cardinals did get was a clean inning from Mitchell Boggs, the setup man who had struggled in the early postseason games and that’s something to give them a sigh of relief.

TUESDAY’S GAMES

TBS begins doubleheader action at 5:30 PM ET, with San Francisco-Cincinnati & Detroit-Oakland going back-to-back. The Reds and Tigers have the chance to clinch berths in the League Championship Series round that will start this weekend.

The pressure today would have to be a little more on Cincinnati. The initial plan to push Johnny Cueto back to today after his back spasms forced a quick departure in Game 1 have been scrapped. Homer Bailey pitches instead, and Cueto’s status for a potential Game 4 is still up in the air. I don’t know that the Reds want this series to stretch on with their ace’s ability to pitch undetermined on a day-to-day basis. San Francisco puts its season in the hands of Ryan Vogelsong, after a somewhat curious decision to burn up Tim Lincecum in a lost cause in long relief on Sunday.

Detroit can play with the assurance that Justin Verlander lies in wait for Game 5, even if Oakland wins these next two games, but because the A’s are at home, this is another spot where there’s some pressure on the leading team to close this out quickly. Anibal Sanchez will take the first shot at doing that, and Max Scherzer would pitch tomorrow. If Oakland wins these games—certainly realistic on their homefield, the Tigers might have Verlander, but there would be considerable pressure on Detroit if this series is still going on Thursday.

In short, let’s not put Cincinnati and Detroit into the LCS too quickly. Things can change in hurry in the postseason, especially a best-of-five, and each team should play tonight with a desire to finish things off ASAP.

St.Louis-Washington & Baltimore-NY Yanks will travel today, as they go to the nation’s capital and the Big Apple to resume play on Wednesday

MLB Playoffs: The Road Teams Are Rolling

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So much for the concern about the letting the lower-seeded teams play the first two games of the Division Series at home, a setup that presumably favored underdogs getting out to 2-0 series leads before having to take their act on the road. While it worked that way for Detroit, the rest of the series—indeed, the entire playoffs, including Friday’s wild-card games—have been marked by road winners. Let’s recap Sunday in the MLB playoffs and look ahead to the two game set for Monday night…

Washington 3 St. Louis 2: Can we officially say that Cardinal setup man Mitchell Boggs is a train wreck this October? He was the reliever was in meltdown mode on Friday before the disputed infield fly call in Atlanta bailed him out. Now on Sunday he comes in with a 2-1 lead and promptly surrenders the lead, as the Nationals steal a road win.

The St. Louis bats were quiet all day, except for David Freese’s two hits. The Cards let Gio Gonzales off the hook in the third after the Washington ace walked the bases loaded, but St. Loo only got two runs. Then in the seventh, with the bases loaded, no outs and a chance to get some insurance, they instead get nothing, with Yadier Molina hitting into a double play.

Cincinnati 9 San Francisco 0: As the score indicates, the Reds beat the Giants every way you can imagine. They got on the board with the long ball when Ryan Ludwick went deep in the second inning. Then in the fourth they peppered San Francisco starter with four singles that produced three runs. The game was broken open in the eighth on an array of balls powered into the gap. And the pitching? Bronson Arroyo was perfect through four and threw seven innings of one-hit ball.

NY Yanks 7 Baltimore 2: C.C. Sabathia came up very big for New York and Jim Johnson came up very small for Baltimore. The Yankee ace went 8.2 IP and threw 120 pitches, while the Oriole closer came on in the ninth inning of a 2-2 game and a chance to get his team six more outs if only he could take care of business. Instead, Johnson gave up a leadoff home run to Russell Martin, four more runs followed and a taut night of baseball at Camden Yards turned into a rout.

New York has to be thankful for the result, because their own baserunning mistakes cost them. In the top of the first, the game opened with a Derek Jeter single and an RBI double by Ichiro Suzuki. Then Ichiro inexplicably tried to steal third and was cut down. What was the point of even risking letting Baltimore starter Jason Hammel of the hook before he’d proven he could get anyone out. Then in the fourth, a potential big inning ended when Mark Teixeira hit a ball high off the wall, but was thrown out at second.

Replays showed Teixeira did what most big leaguers do these days and dogged it about three-quarters of the way down the first-base line. The out was the second of the inning and cost the Yanks a chance to have second and third with no outs. Baltimore wasn’t on the attack as much, but for eight innings were much cleaner until their closer just didn’t have it.

Detroit 5 Oakland 4: On the one hand, you can say that because Oakland has the next three at home, there’s reason to think they can turn this series around if they just pick up one win and put some pressure on Detroit. On the other hand…Game 2 of this series was tailor-made for Oakland. While Detroit got good work from Doug Fister (7 IP/2 ER) and four hits combined from Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder, Oakland starter Tommy Milone had a 6 IP/1 ER line, and the hits to Detroit’s big guns were all singles.

It meant a battle of the bullpens, which is the spot where the A’s needed to get this series. And when Josh Reddick got inconsistent Tiger setup man Joaquin Benoit for a two-run shot in the eighth, they had a 4-3 lead and could turn to the lights-out tandem of Ryan Cook and Grant Balfour to tie up the series. But Cook put runners on second and third, and then when he had two outs and looked set to preserve the lead, the setup man uncorked a wild pitch to tie the game, and Detroit then beat Balfour for the winning run in the ninth.

MONDAY’S SCHEDULE

The Cincinnati-San Francisco & Detroit-Oakland series will travel today, with the Reds going home and the Tigers going west, each with 2-0 series leads. Both will resume on Wednesday.

TBS will carry a doubleheader today starting at 4:30 PM ET, beginning with St. Louis hosting Washington, and then the Yankees-Orioles resuming hostilities in Baltimore.

The Cards throw Jaime Garcia in an attempt to even up the series and give Chris Carpenter a shot in the crucial Game 3, the spot in the rotation where the Nationals might miss Stephen Strasburg. Yesterday’s starter, Gonzalez, might win the Cy Young Award and today’s pitcher, Jordan Zimmerman is an ace in his own right. I think homefield is less consequential than pitching matchups, and while Washington can happy with a split on the road, St. Louis could also live with a split of the Gonzalez-Zimmerman games.

A similar dynamic exists in Baltimore, where the Orioles couldn’t be too upset with a split of two games facing Sabathia and tonight’s starter Andy Pettite. What Baltimore’s going to need is a big-time effort from Wei-Yin Chen, their most consistent starter through the season, but inconsistent in September until a nice finishing outing in Tampa Bay.

And Buck Showalter has to be concerned that Johnson’s Game 1 meltdown is not an isolated incident—the closer loaded up the bases on Friday in Texas before finishing it off and barely survived a couple situations against New York in a key series back in September.

MLB Playoffs: Bad Night For The Bay On Saturday

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It was a tough Saturday night if you were a baseball fan in the Bay Area, as both Oakland and San Francisco fell behind in their respective Division Series games against Detroit and Cincinnati. Let’s look back on Saturday and ahead to what will be a full-throttled four-game run on Sunday in the MLB playoffs…

Detroit 3 Oakland 1: Justin Verlander needed to step up and show he could deliver dominating postseason performances to go with his regular season excellence. The Tiger ace did just that. It took him one batter to get settled in—Coco Crisp led off the game with a home run for Oakland, but the A’s managed just three hits for the rest of the night. The Detroit bullpen, an area of concern, was fine, as Joaquin Benoit and Jose Valverde closed out the final two innings without incident.

Oakland’s pitching, with starter Jarrod Parker had its own moments. Even with the Tigers quickly tied the game in their own half of the first, it could have  been worse. Detroit immediately put runners on first and third and brought Miguel Cabrera to the plate. The Triple Crown winner promptly hit into a double play. It scored the run, but an early big inning was off the board, in a sequence essentially identical to what happened to Texas and Josh Hamilton in their wild-card loss to Baltimore on Friday night. Cabrera and Prince Fielder went 0-for-7 on the night, with just a Cabrera walk.

The performance of Verlander and the collaring of Cabrera and Fielder give us a pretty good sign that this series is likely to be a grinding affair, and last night it was Alex Avila who gave Verlander the offense he needed. The Detroit catcher had two hits, including a home run that made it 3-1 in the fifth.

Cincinnati 5 San Francisco 2: It was a strange night for Cincinnati who lost ace Johnny Cueto after just one batter to back spasms. Cueto is scheduled to start Game 3 back home on Tuesday, but his departure forced manager Dusty Baker into some creative shuffling with his staff. He brought in the original Game 3 starter Mat Latos, who gave four quality innings of work, while the Reds carved out a 3-1 lead.

The game got ugly on both sides in the ninth. Cincy loaded the bases with two outs and then got their insurance runs on a wild pitch and passed ball. Aroldis Chapman proceeded to let the Giants back into it, looking like he didn’t have any command of the strike zone and the tying run getting the plate before the closer sealed the deal.

Ultimately the person who looked the worst last night in this game was yours truly. My pick of San Francisco to sweep the series was gone. I further said that the only way Cincinnati was going to win a game would be last night, but that was conditioned on Cueto pitching. Wrong again.

Then I was with a  friend who was a Reds fan that challenged me for further reasons on my pick and I said that Brandon Phillips and Jay Bruce were overrated as offensive players and products of their hitter-friendly home park. Playing on the road, Phillips hit a two-run jack to start the scoring, and had three hits. Bruce hit a long home run to right field. That’s a Grand Slam Parlay of being wrong all around for yours truly.

The Sunday Schedule

*If I’m an Oakland fan, I’m telling myself that we knew Verlander would be tough to beat on his homefield, and it’s now game-on for this series. The A’s now get three shots the middle of the Detroit rotation. It starts today at noon ET, when Doug Fister takes the baton from Verlander. Oakland sends out rookie Tommy Milone. In a strange coincidence, both cities can be all-in on baseball today, as the Lions and Raiders both have bye weeks in the NFL.

*The early game will be on MLB Network and then TBS takes over with a tripleheader starting at 3 PM ET. The first two are the series getting underway. You can check out TheSportsNotebook previews of St. Louis-Washington & NY Yanks-Baltimore, which begin with the Cards and Orioles at home.

When the previews were written yesterday Baltimore was still unsettled as to their Game 1 starter. Buck Showalter has opted for Jason Hammel, the best on the staff when healthy, but he hasn’t pitched in a couple weeks with a knee injury.

*The night ends back out west with Cincinnati-San Francisco and the Giants facing the first must-win spot of this round. Unlike Oakland, who could hope to rally at home if they fall behind 0-2, the Giants know they’re already up against it when they visit Cincinnati. Madison Bumgarner and Bronson Arroyo will square off.

 

MLB Division Series Preview: St. Louis-Washington

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The St. Louis Cardinals have a day to recoup from their wild-card win over the Atlanta Braves, and then on Sunday it’s time for the Cards to open play in the MLB Division Series when they host top-seeded Washington. The teams play Game 2 in St. Louis on Monday evening, then finish the best-of-five series in the nation’s capital on Wednesday-Thursday-Friday.

We’ll preview the Cards-Nationals matchup with the same format used in the Detroit-Oakland & Cincinnati-San Francisco previews published earlier and what will be used for the Baltimore-NY Yanks series coming up—break down each team in terms of ability to get on base, hit for power, starting pitching and bullpen. Then we include add some context with a historical footnote and seeing what the smart money in Las Vegas thinks, before wrapping it up with a pick.

ABILITY TO GET ON BASE: Washington is like San Francisco in that the quality of their pitching has overshadowed an underrated offense. The Nationals are sixth in the National League in on-base percentage, with Adam LaRoche, Jayson Werth and Ryan Zimmerman being solid contributors and shortstop Ian Desmond not far behind.

Bryce Harper is also fairly consistent, making five spots in eight that are assets in keeping the base paths active. Then let’s add in that Michael Morse, while having a bad year in 2012, had a good year in ’11 and is capable of lifting his game moving forward.

But if Washington is good at getting on base, St. Louis is outstanding—as in 2nd-best in the National League and keying the league’s most productive offense kind of outstanding. Yadier Molina, David Freese, Matt Holliday and Carlos Beltran are more than simply power hitters. They keep themselves a regular part of the offense with hits and walks. Jon Jay is an excellent igniter at the top of the order and even shortstop Pete Kozma has a .383 OBP, albeit in only 72 at-bats.

When manager Mike Matheny goes to his bench, he can turn to Matt Carpenter and Skip Schumaker, both of whom are tough outs. There’s no weak point in the Cardinal lineup, not even a late-inning pinch hitter.

POWER: Most of the suspects who contribute to Washington’s on-base percentage also drive their power production, from LaRoche and Desmond who each slugged over .500, to Harper and Zimmerman who are in that neighborhood. Werth is a little low at .432, but his historical track record going back to Philadelphia tells you he can deliver. And power is an area where Morse stayed productive, at .455.

St. Louis is deep in power as well, with Molina and Craig being on the far side of .500, Matt Holliday just missing that benchmark by three points, then Freese and Beltran being threats to go deep or into the alleys. Kozma has again been a surprise here as well, slugging .569, although to look at the young shortstop suggests that’s a fluke of his low number of career at-bats. Either way, St. Louis has game-changers in its attack.

STARTING PITCHING: This should have been an edge for Washington, but the shutting down of Stephen Strasburg has drastically hurt that. It’s not that the Nationals don’t have more excellent pitching—Gio Gonzalez might win the Cy Young Award and Jordan Zimmerman is a legitimate #1 pitcher in his own right. But the Nats should be running three aces out there rather than two, and their Game 4 starter is still undetermined, with the options being postseason savvy Edwin Jackson—ironically a Cardinal last year who won the clinching game of the NLCS, or the talented, but inconsistent Ross Detwiler. I’d say they could bring back Gonzalez on short rest but any organization that would shut down one pitcher entirely surely wouldn’t push another.

While Strasburg is gone, Chris Carpenter is back for St. Louis. The veteran got three starts at the end of the year and pitched well. While two of them were the Astros and Cubs, the final outing was against the Reds, so Carpenter’s gotten back into facing playoff-caliber lineups. He’ll pitch Game 3 when the series goes back to Washington.

The Cardinals will open with Adam Wainwright, who’s pitched his best baseball in the second half and Jaime Garcia goes in Game 2. Kyle Lohse, who got the wild-card win, goes in Game 4 and as a 16-game winner with a sub-3.00 ERA, Lohse gives his team a solid edge in a potential fourth game when the Nats will be at the back of their rotation.

BULLPEN: Washington holds a substantial advantage here, being deeper and having higher quality available. St. Louis can match up in the closer spot, with Jason Motte and Tyler Clippard, and you can argue the Cardinals would have an edge if each were pitching a tie game.

But that’s about it. St. Louis’ only other quality reliever is Mitchell Boggs and he was incredibly shaky in Atlanta on Friday night and if not for a massacred call on an infield fly rule, we might be talking about Boggs as a goat of the playoffs. Meanwhile, the Nationals can run a battalion of Drew Storen, Sean Burnett, Ryan Mattheus, Craig Stammen and Tom Gorzelanny out there, any one of whom is better than Boggs.

HISTORICAL NOTE: This is Washington’s first time in the playoffs, so obviously there’s no history here. Nor did previous baseball editions in Washington ever play St. Louis in the World Series. Although the last team in this city eventually became the Texas Rangers and I think we can all recall a little history between those two franchises. But that’s pushing it.

The city of Washington might feel a debt to St. Louis for different reasons. The Washington Redskins got the rights to draft Robert Griffin III through a trade with the St. Louis Rams for the #2 pick. We’ll see if the Rams make their two future first-rounders worth their while to have dealt RG3 and gone with Sam Bradford. But now I’m really pushing it in the search for a historical angle. Maybe I’ll just move on.

THE VIEW FROM VEGAS: Even without Strasburg, Washington is posted as a (-145) favorite, meaning you have to bet $145 to win $100 if you’re pick is the Nats. St. Louis is available at (+125) meaning you get 25 percent higher than your original wager if you cash in. I guess I’m surprise this number isn’t closer, given the respect the Cardinals should have earned for their October prowess.

THESPORTSNOTEBOOK PREDICTION: I like what St. Louis has going for them. The offense is not just deep and well-balanced, even more so than Washington’s but the Cardinal hitters have all proven they can hit in the crunch of October pressure against high-quality arms.

I also like the starting pitching matchups. Playing at home, St. Louis can wangle one win against Gonzalez/Zimmerman, and even though the series would go east, I’d be ready to bet on Carpenter and Lohse to close it out against the weaker part of the Washinton rotation. I’m certainly concerned about the bullpen issue, but that’s for another round. St. Louis wins in four and moves on the NLCS.

MLB Division Series Preview: San Francisco-Cincinnati

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Cincinnati and San Francisco had their respective divisions wrapped up fairly early and while the Reds had a shot at the National League’s top seed, this matchup in the MLB Division Series has been at least written in pencil for a while now. It starts tonight in San Francisco, as the second part of a playoff doubleheader that starts with Oakland-Detroit. The Reds-Giants  continue tomorrow and then come to Cincinnati for the final three games on Tuesday thru Thursday.

TheSportsNotebook previews the series by focusing on each team’s ability to get on base, hit for power, along with their starting pitching and bullpen. Then we’ll add in a historical footnote to give these games some context, examine how the bookmakers of Las Vegas see things and conclude with a prediction.

ABILITY TO GET ON BASE: This is a significant problem for the Reds, who ranked just 10th in the National League in on-base percentage. It’s a low rank for a team that won its division by such a substantial margin and plays in a hitters’ park, but if you look at the talent individually, there’s reason to hope things can different in the postseason.

Joey Votto is healthy and his OBP is a dazzling .477, in part because teams will do anything to avoid pitching to the first baseman. Ryan Ludwick has enjoyed a comeback year in left field at .351. Ryan Hanigan is a pesky .366, the kind of catcher who can quietly make a big difference to a lineup.

But other key offensive players—namely Jay Bruce, Brandon Phillips and Scott Rolen—are subpar when it comes to getting themselves aboard consistently. Shortstop Zack Cozart has had some hot streaks, but the rookie has had terrible dry spells and the final .291 OPB he posted tells you there were more of the latter. Dusty Baker needs to find a way to get Todd Frazer into the lineup. He’s respectable at getting aboard. Playing him means displacing Ludwick or Rolen, as Frazier can play left field and third base (he can also play first, although he’s obviously not displacing Votto). Rolen has struggled, but Baker might be taken in by his postseason experience.

San Francisco has the reputation for being all pitching, but they were third in the NL at getting on base, and while some of that is due to the production of Melky Cabrera, now suspended and disgraced for PED use, the Giants are an underrated lineup. Buster Posey has turned in an MVP-caliber season, driven by a .410 OPB, while Brandon Belt and Pablo Sandoval are solid at the corner infield spots. Angel Pagan has had a respectable year in center, and Marco Scutaro has swung the bat very well since coming over in a trade from Colorado.

POWER: The Reds rank 6th in slugging, but given the hitter-friendly dimensions of their home park, this is even a little low. In fairness, they were without Votto for several weeks after the All-Star break, and while the Reds continued to win, it did hurt their power numbers. Votto, Bruce and Ludwick all have to produce, at least with extra base hits and RBIs if their team is going to win. This is another area where Frazier could help—is it coming across that I think Baker should keep Rolen on the bench and play Frazier instead? Good. And Phillips has good power for a middle infielder, slugging .454, while there are no obvious liabilities.

San Fran is 8th in slugging, but with their home park being pitcher-friendly, it’s fair to assume they’ll at least be even with Cincinnati, if not better. Posey has driven the ball very well, while Sandoval is another good power threat. Belt and Pagan are at least tolerable when it comes to their ability to hit the gaps. But this is the area where Hunter Pence has to step up. The rightfielder has been a non-factor since being acquired from Philadelphia at the trade deadline, but we know he can contribute here, as well as with getting on base. But in no area is a Pence step-up needed more than in the area of power.

STARTING PITCHING: Both teams are strong here, and this is pretty even-up each step along the way. The aces, Matt Cain for San Francisco and Johnny Cueto for Cincinnati, are lined up to pitch Games 1 & 5. While Cueto has had the better season this year, Cain still had a solid 2012 campaign and his overall career tells us he can match up with the #1’s anywhere in baseball.

Game 2 is Bronson Arroyo-Madison Bumgarner, with the latter having better stuff, but the former having more durability. Then it’s Tim Lincecum-Mat Latos in Game 3, as the Giants’ two-time Cy Young winner can make a big impact on this series if he continues his second half resurgence. Then it’s Homer Bailey, the Cincy starter who threw a September no-hitter in Game 4 against an undecided starter for the Giants. It could be Barry Zito or Ryan Vogelsong, or maybe even Cain on short rest if San Fran is in a must-win spot.

RELIEF PITCHING: Both teams are good here and no one’s going to feel confident about coming back after five innings, but Cincinnati is a little deeper and better in the ninth inning, thanks to having Aroldis Chapman and San Francisco having been without Brian Wilson all year. The Giants have two high-quality late-inning pitchers in Santiago Casilla and Sergio Romo, who combined for 38 saves. But closing in the regular season is different from closing in October and we’ll have to see how they respond.

More important, the loss of Wilson has put Frisco an arm down all year and that’s an edge Cincinnati can exploit. Dusty Baker is about two pitchers deeper than Bruce Bochy in the pen, and that gives an edge in a tie game and more options for a quick hook on a starter early.

HISTORICAL FOOTNOTE: This is the first time the Reds and Giants have met in the playoffs, and even though they were both in the old NL West together from 1969-93, they never really went at each other in a big pennant race. The closest we can come is 1971, when San Francisco briefly interrupted the Big Red Machine with a division title and again in 1987, when they beat out Pete Rose in the latter’s run of four straight second-place finishes while managing Cincinnati. But neither race was particularly dramatic.

Where these cities cross paths is in football. The 49ers beat the Bengals in the Super Bowl two different times, in 1981, when both had dramatic turnarounds, and in 1988 when Joe Montana built on his legend with a late touchdown pass to John Taylor. Winning a Division Series round in the MLB playoffs won’t make up for that, but Cincinnati has to feel like they owe Frisco a little something.

THE VIEW FROM VEGAS: Cincinnati is a slight favorite to win the series at (-125),where it requires a $125 bet to win $100. San Francisco is posted at (+105), so you can get a 5 percent return for taking the underdog. What is interesting is that the Giants are considered the better play to win the World Series, at (+385), while you can get Cincy for (+495) to win the whole thing. So the bettors who like the Giants in this series like them a lot, while those who like the Reds, don’t see it going much past the coming week.

THE SPORTSNOTEBOOK PREDICTION: I’m very skeptical of Cincinnati’s offense to get anything going consistently, given their problems with getting on base and my doubts that their power will translate well away from their home park. Furthermore, I think Lincecum’s second-half resurgence is real and that Pence can finally give San Francisco a boost. I’m taking San Francisco to sweep this in three straight and even if Cueto wins tonight, a game I expect to be a pitcher’s duel, the Giants will win the ensuing three.

MLB Division Series Preview: Detroit-Oakland

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The MLB Division Series round starts tonight as #3-seed Detroit hosts #2-seed Oakland. The first two games of this series will be in Detroit on Saturday & Sunday, and the rest of the best-of-five series will finish out west from next Tuesday to Thursday.

TheSportsNotebook previews the Tigers-A’s matchup by looking at how they match up the four key areas—the ability to get on base, to hit for power, starting pitching and relief pitching. We’ll also mix in some historical backdrop,  look at how the folks in Las Vegas see the matchup and make a prediction.

ABILITY TO GET ON BASE: Detroit does a credible job at keeping the base paths active, ranking second in the league in on-base percentage, in no small part because the big guns of Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder know how to take their walks along with hitting for power. Austin Jackson had a breakout year at the top of the lineup. Alex Avila and Andy Dirks also do a good job getting on base, but on the flip side the weak spots of Jhonny Peralta, Delmon Young and Brennan Boesch are really weak.

Oakland was only 12th in the American League in OBP, although they were better after the All-Star break than before. Yoenis Cespedes and Brandon Moss are each steady contributors, but no one beyond these two really a good year. The A’s have to hope that Josh Reddick, who tanked in the second half, can get his game back together for this series. And they need to hope Coco Crisp’s second-half resurgence carries over. So that’s two contradictory wishes that have to come together.

Otherwise, DH Seth Smith is adequate, and manager Bob Melvin has to figure out a way to get Chris Carter (.350 OBP/.514 slugging) into a lineup where Moss is at first, and Cespedes and Reddick are at the corner outfield spots. Another hope for a breakout series is shortstop Stephen Drew, whose number was a mediocre .326, but has seen better days.

HITTING FOR POWER: The fact Miguel Cabrera won the Triple Crown tells you the man can hit for some power, but he also led the league in the more modern stat of slugging percentage, at .606. Fielder was at .528, a very good number although not quite superstar level. Dirks and Jackson provide solid power to the alleys, an important facet of the offense for a team that plays in a deep pitcher’s park. No one else has shown any kind of consistency, either hitting home runs or driving it to the gaps.

On the Oakland side, Moss fulfilled the potential he started to flash in Boston during the 2009 season, but never really solidified. The first baseman slugged .596 in 265 at-bats while playing in a park every bit as unfriendly to hitters as Detroit’s. Power is another area where Reddick slumped after the break, but he still slugged a solid .463 for the year, while Cespedes posted a .505. Carter gives good power off the bench and Smith is respectable.

Both teams are remarkably similar offensively—the power and the ability to get on-base tends to come from the same core group, meaning any of the also-ran players who can scrape together a few hits can be a decisive factor.

STARTING PITCHING: We’re only evaluating starting pitching for the purposes of this series, not for the long haul, and the fact Justin Verlander is lined up to start Games 1 & 5 give Detroit a massive edge, even if Oakland starter Jarrod Parker can’t be dismissed. It’s anybody’s guess where the edge lies in the middle games—the A’s throw rookie Tommy Milone in Sunday’s Game 2, then the oft-injured, but high-quality Brett Anderson will be ready for Game 3. Another rookie, A.J. Griffin goes for Game 4. Detroit counters with the sequence of Doug Fister, Anibal Sanchez and Max Scherzer. Over the course of the year, the A’s starters have been better. But the Tiger pitchers have done well in September and in the case of Fister and Scherzer, were big parts of Detroit’s Division Series win over New York a year ago.

RELIEF PITCHING: There’s no getting around how much better Oakland is here. The team of Ryan Cook and Grant Balfour is steady at the end of games, while Detroit closer Jose Valverde is a heart attack waiting to happen, even on his best days. Even if you allow that Valverde usually does get the job, we’re now at a point in the season where closers are expected to pitch in tie games. If you’re a Detroit fan does that make you feel good or make you shudder?

Oakland’s also much deeper, with four relievers in front of Cook/Balfour that have sub-3.00 ERAs. Detroit has inconsistency back here, and can only hope that Octavio Dotel’s postseason experience and some of Joaquin Benoit’s natural talent will lift them to a big week.

HISTORICAL NOTE: These teams have met twice before in the playoffs. The first time came in 1972, back in the days of Reggie Jackson and Billy Martin. The former was a rising star in the Oakland outfield, while the latter was the Detroit manager and their days of feuding in the Bronx together still five years off. Oakland won that LCS in five games (it didn’t become a best-of-seven until 1985). The next battle came in 2006, the last time Oakland was in the playoffs. Detroit won in a four-game sweep before losing to St. Louis in the World Series.

THE VIEW FROM VEGAS: Detroit’s the favorite here, posted at (-155), meaning you’d have to bet $155 to win $100, while the number in Oakland is (+135), so you can get a 35 percent increase on the size of your original bet if you win. The A’s might have more wins, the might be hot coming in, but the betting world still likes the Tigers.

FINAL PREDICTION: There’s one thing missing from Justin Verlander’s resume, and it’s dominating postseason performances. He beat the Yankees last year, although that was a 5-4 game where neither he nor C.C. Sabathia were all that special. Verlander split two games against Texas in the ensuing ALCS. We already know he’s one of the top pitchers, if not the top pitcher in baseball. But it’s time for him to take the next step and put his team on his back in a postseason series. A situation where he can get two-thirds of the requisite wins against a fairly soft lineup while working in pitcher-friendly parks on both sides, mark this a breakout point.

The pick here is for Verlander to do just that. He delivers a dominating performance tonight, the hot Tiger starters of September can get at least one more win in the middle games and set the ace up for a road win in Game 5 to move forward. All of which is made easier by the fact Detroit’s superstars on offense are better, and their bottom-feeder players are more likely to have a good series. Keep an eye on Jhonny Peralta as a possibility for a sequence of pesky singles or a surprise home run at a big moment. And take the Tigers to win in four, with a surefire fallback in a potential fifth game.