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Mike Montgomery

Cal Basketball Is Charging Hard

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The Cal basketball team got some unwelcome publicity a week ago when a shove by head coach Mike Montgomery to the chest of guard Allen Crabbe got national attention. What that’s overshadowing is that Cal is coming on as strong as any team in the country. The Golden Bears, seemingly a longshot just to make the NCAA Tournament, have won five straight and improbably become a contender for the Pac-12 title in the regular season’s final two weeks.

A February 7 loss to Arizona State dropped Cal to 14-9 overall. However, they haven’t lost since and it’s not a soft schedule that’s inflating their win-loss record. The Golden Bears have won at Arizona, won at Oregon and beaten UCLA. They’ve also won at USC, a team that turned around its season after an early coaching change and has a winning record in conference play. So is Montgomery’s team really peaking in time for the NCAAs or is this just a case of another team being the flavor of the month, only to fade away?

Cal is built on its backcourt. Crabbe is a great player, averaging 19 ppg and he’s ably supported by Justin Cobb, at 15 ppg. Both guards share the ball and both chip in some rebounding. The forwards, Richard Solomon and David Kravish aren’t scorers, but they do rebound and give Cal just enough physicality to ensure their great guard play isn’t wasted.

The winning streak started two weeks ago today with the road trip to Arizona, a game that was set up to jam a fork in Cal’s NCAA hopes. Instead, the Crabbe and Cobbs shot the lights out, going a combined 20-for-29 for 52 points to lead the 77-69 upset. As impressive as the showing was, we could be forgiven for thinking that it was just one hot shooting game at an opportune time. But Cal was able to follow it up by beating UCLA at home, 76-63. This was in spite of the Bruins holding a definite edge on scoring from three-point range (nine treys to Cal’s two). In this case, Cal’s 50 percent shooting from the floor wasn’t about being hot, it was about inside scoring. Kravish and Solomon combined for 35 points and 21 rebounds, even more impressive when you consider how physical the opponent is.

Crabbe and Cobbs cranked it back up for the USC game, combining for 45 points, while the frontcourt did the dirty work of producing a 35-24 rebounding advantage and Cal got to the line consistently. Then it was time for the defense to step it up a notch. The shooting wasn’t there in Thursday’s trip to Pac-12 leader Oregon, or yesterday at Oregon State, but Cal held its opponents to 27 percent shooting in Thursday’s two-point win and 35 percent in a one-point escape on Saturday.

What it all boils down to is that Cal is showing they can win just about any way an opponent wants to play. They can destroy you with their guards. Their forwards can match up in a physical game. If the offense isn’t flowing smoothly, the Bears can bail themselves out with defense.

The one thing this team does not do very well is shoot the three-ball. Even in this five-game win streak, they’re only shooting 29 percent from three-point range, while the opponents are at 35 percent. Like all of Montgomery’s teams, Cal does a good job in staying away from its weakness, and Crabbe is the only player who shoots from behind the arc with any regularity—at 35 percent he’s just good enough to justify it, but not good enough for an opposing defense to stretch and risk getting beaten off the dribble.

Cal is now just one game back in the loss column and projected as a #12 seed by ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi in the projections that were last updated on Friday. They’ll play the last three regular season games for both a championship and for survival. And the schedule isn’t imposing—all three will be at home and the toughest will be against fellow NCAA bubble team Colorado. There isn’t any reason to think Cal can’t close the season with three straight wins, lock up a bid and perhaps steal an improbable conference championship.

KEEPING UP WITH COLORADO

Speaking of Colorado, the Buffs are currently projected as a #10 seed, a projection that factors in an overtime loss earlier this week to Arizona State. Colorado has a well-balanced attack with four players averaging between 10-15 points per game. But one of those pieces—6’11” freshman Josh Scott is out with a concussion.

The Buffs need Scott back to balance out their lineup. They have good guards in Askia Bookie and Spencer Dinwiddie. Forward Andre Roberson is a good scorer and excellent rebounder. Scott makes them complete and a threat to win the Pac-12 tournament for the second straight year.

Colorado has a key week ahead, with a road game at 16-12 Stanford preceding next weekend’s date at Cal. Then the Buffs host Oregon to start the regular season’s final week. That’s three difficult games of which they need to be thinking about winning at least two. Then Colorado closes it out with a home date against Oregon State.

The Pac-12’s Five Contenders To Move Off The NCAA Bubble

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No conference race has as many good scenarios for the final week than the Pac-12, as the league begins its usual run of Thursday night games that set the stage for the weekend. The championship is in play, five teams are on the radar for the NCAA Tournament, and only one can really feel secure about its position in the Dance. So if you don’t feel like following the controversy that’s flared up at UCLA about whether Ben Howland is or isn’t in control of the program, there’s still plenty of on-court action to keep up with in the Pac-12. TheSportsNotebook will look at the five relevant teams.

We can break them down into three groups. Washington/Cal are still playing for the league title and will probably make the NCAA Tournament, though only Cal can really feel safe. Arizona is likely to make the NCAAs, though out of the championship mix. Oregon and Colorado are right on the bubble. Here’s the rundown…

Washington (20-8, 13-3, projected #10 seed): If they get road wins at USC and UCLA, the Huskies lock up an outright Pac-12 championship in what was supposed to be a rebuilding year for Lorenzo Romar’s program. The core of the lineup is a trio of players who run 6’5” and 6’6” and can control the wings. Tony Wroten, Terrence Ross and C.J. Wilcox have ppg averages of 17, 15 & 14 respectively. Wilcox is lights-out from behind the arc. Wroten is a good playmaker. Ross crashes the boards. The best news for Romar is none of these kids has hit their junior year. Of course for the short-term prospects in big games, maybe that’s also the worse news. I’ve been saying for at least the last year that if 7’0” center Aziz N’Diaye really becomes a force in the post, the Huskies can make a big run on the national stage. But I’m tired of waiting. N’Diaye is a respectable rebounder, but not a dominator.

Washington deserves to be more secure than ESPN.com bracketologist Joe Lunardi projects them, but Lunardi is trying to track with the Selection Committee will do, not what teams deserve, and there’s a good chance he’s right. While most of the Huskies are losses are “good”—no shame in Marquette or Duke, you can live with St. Louis and Nevada. But dumping a 19-point game to South Dakota State at home? That game would be the reason Washington could be a rare champ of a power conference still needing at least one win in their league tournament.

Cal (23-7, 13-4, projected #9 seed): There’s only one game left for the Golden Bears’ regular season and even if Cal loses at Stanford and again in the league tournament, they’re probably still in. The non-conference losses to Missouri, San Diego State and UNLV are respectable enough and Cal had won six in a row prior to a loss at Colorado.

This is a team that’s very good at the guard spots. Allen Crabbe and Justin Cobb both can shoot the trey, and the 6’6” Crabbe contributes some board work. Jose Gutierrez is a solid point guard and while not a three-point threat, his does shoot well enough from the floor that defenses can’t sag in too much to stop him off the dribble. Harper Kamp is a decent scorer at power forward. There’s not a lot of depth, nor much muscle, but if you have a point guard who can control tempo, others who can get hot from downtown, and a head coach in Mike Montgomery who knows what he’s doing, you can win some games in the NCAA Tournament. It all depends on the matchups, but in general, I like Cal’s chances to advance.

Arizona (21-9, 12-5, projected #11 seed): Sean Miller’s team struggled against good teams in December as they tried to rebuild after the loss of power forward Derrick Williams to early entry in the NBA draft. The Wildcats fell to Mississippi State, San Diego State, Florida and Gonzaga. But there were no South Dakota State-esque defeats, and as Arizona came together the wins started coming. While Miller had to break two freshman into the starting lineup, seniors stepped up with forward Jesse Perry and guard Kyle Fogg playing well, along with junior forward Solomon Hill. The team lacks a true post presence and the depth is not great, but not only have they won games in the Pac-12, three of the losses have come by two points or loss (contrasted to only one win by that margin). Arizona is playing as well as anyone in this conference and deserves to make the field.

Oregon (20-8, 11-5, projected  to miss field by 5-8 spots): Oregon is a very finesse-oriented team with no one taller than 6’6” able to make any real contribution. Forward E.J. Singler is the “big man” and he’s better suited to step out and hit the outside shot. Fortunately he’s a good shooter inside the arc and a respectable one outside it. The offense is ultimately led by senior Devoe Joseph, who scores 17 ppg a night and can shoot the ball from anywhere on the floor, with Garrett Sim a solid supporting player in the backcourt. Kudos to head coach Dana Altman for keeping a team with this little depth and size in the race. If they win their home games this week against Colorado and Utah they deserve to make the field and I’m optimistic that they’ll be the fourth team out of the Pac-12 to have its name called on Selection Sunday.

Colorado (19-9, 11-5, projected to miss field by 5-8 spots): I know Lunardi has them basically even with Oregon, but I don’t see it. They’ve been blown out four times in league play. Colorado lost to Stanford by 20-plus points twice, including just last week. They lost by 17 to UCLA and  14 to Arizona. The non-conference schedule is filled with losses to shaky teams on the NCAA bubble—Maryland, Colorado State and Wyoming, along with a more understandable losses to Wichita State. I was a defender of this team’s NCAA prospects, but the most recent tank job against Stanford leaves even me thinking a lot of work has to be done.

The Buffs have the talent. Andre Roberson averages an 11/11 each night and will be high on TheSportsNotebook’s list when conference player of the year honors are given out next week. Carlon Brown can open it up from outside, and Austin Dufault and Spencer Dinwiddie can both fill supporting roles effectively. I can see this team winning the Pac-12 tournament. What I can’t see is how this current resume is NCAA Tournament-worthy. To my way of thinking, Colorado needs to win at Oregon tonight, at Oregon State to close the season and then at least win their quarterfinal game in the Pac-12 tourney, presumably against Oregon or Arizona. Do all that, and maybe we can talk about getting them in the field.

Cal Leads Up Improved Pac-12 Hoops

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Cal’s football team may have lost the Holiday Bowl to Texas last night, but the Golden Bear faithful—a group that includes probable NFL MVP Aaron Rodgers, it’s most famous current alum—have plenty to look forward to in basketball season. Mike Montgomery has his team off to a 10-3 start and they look like the best of the Pac-12.

Montgomery has put together a team that’s deep and hits the board hard. Allen Crabbe, Harper Kamp, Richard Solomon and David Kravish all run 6’6” to 6’10” and they all rebound and score. The backcourt is sound with Justin Cobb and Jorge Guiterrez. The man on the sidelines knows what he’s doing and when you consider that the bar in this conference usually isn’t very high, the Golden Bears have more than enough to win their second league championship in three years.

The remaining 11 teams can fall into three different categories: Last years’ NCAA teams (4), the credible challengers (5) and the bottom feeders (2).

LAST YEARS’ NCAA TEAMS

Arizona: Sean Miller led this program to its big success of the post-Lute Olson era last year, winning the conference, burying Duke in the NCAA Tournament and coming within a basket of the Final Four. After sophomore forward Derrick Williams left early for the NBA, Miller has done a solid job of plugging in the pieces. Solomon Hill is the next budding star in Tucson, leading the team in scoring, rebounding and assists. The issues Arizona has is the lack of a true post player and they have a freshman running the show in Nick Johnson. There’s enough talent to make it back to the Dance, but the ceiling for this season is lower than it is for Cal.

UCLA: The Bruins have had a tough time recapturing the mojo of the teams that went to three straight Final Fours from 2006-08 and the loss of Reeves Nelson, the forward suspended for the rest of the year, didn’t help. UCLA’s dropped understandable games to Kansas, Michigan and Texas and not-so-understandable ones to Loyola Marymount and Middle Tennessee. At least the latter two losses were the ones to start the season. What Ben Howland still has is size up front, with a pair of 6’10” post men in Travis Wear and Joshua Smith, along with Lazaric Jones running things at the point. Howland’s sharp enough that he’ll get an NCAA ticket with that core group.

Washington: It’s been tough sledding for the 6-5 Huskies, although three losses were defensible, coming to Marquette, Duke and a much-improved St. Louis team. The loss of Scott Suggs in the backcourt for the year with a foot injury doesn’t help Lorenzo Romar’s cause, but like Howland, he still has some material to work with. Terrence Ross, a 6’6” sophomore , is leading the way both scoring and rebounding, while the backcourt has good size with both C.J. Wilcox and Tony Wrote going 6’5”. Down low, 7-footer Aziz N’Diaye is getting to the glass. The Huskies will rebound and in a soft league that’ll be enough to scrape into March Madness again.

USC: The Trojans were one of the last teams chosen for the NCAA a year ago, but at 5-8 and no signs of better things on the horizon, there’s no repeat in sight. Kevin O’Neill bought himself some time with that unexpected tournament appearance last year, but the master recruiter needs to get some depth in this program quickly.

CREDIBLE CHALLENGERS

Oregon: At 10-2 and coached by Dana Altman, who did a good job at Creighton prior to arriving in Eugene, the Ducks are the best bet to grab the conference a fifth NCAA ticket, and could move higher up the food chain. They took Florida into overtime before losing and with E.J. Singler have one of the top forwards in the league. With a good guard tandem of Devoe Joseph and Garrett Sims it’s going to be the development of an inside game that ultimately tells the tale for the Ducks.

Colorado: The Buffaloes haven’t gotten it going yet, with four pedestrian losses—the best of the four was Maryland, who’s on a down year. But there’s some good individual personnel and they have the potential to get it going in conference play. Success starts around their excellent 6’7” forward Andre Roberson who averages 11 points and 11 rebounds a game and extends to a starting lineup that plays big on the wings to compensate for the lack of a post player. Austin Default, Spencer Dinwiddie and Carlon Brown can all create action, and floor leader Nate Tomlinson makes it all work in tandem. The guess here is that the Buffs make things interesting in Pac-12 play.

Stanford: At 10-2, there’s reason or optimism in Palo Alto, especially with one of the losses being to Syracuse. The Cardinal is built around post man Josh Owens, but how fast the backcourt of freshman Casson Randle and sophomore Aaron Bright come around will decide whether Stanford can compete.

Washington State: The Cougars are another team who needs more depth. Faisal Aden is a good player, averaging 15 ppg, but everyone has one like him. A pair of 6’10” players down low, Brock Moturn and Charlie Enquist have to play big if WSU is to separate itself from this pack.

Oregon State: The 10-2 record doesn’t tell a lot either way, as the Beavers split their two noteworthy games with Vanderbilt and Texas. But this is another team with a lot of capacity to do some serious damage, and Jared Cunningham, a 17 ppg scorer leads the wrecking crew. Devon Collier is a good running mate at forward, while Joe Burton does dirty work down low. The backcourt is competent with Ahmad Starks and Roberto Nelson, and I like coach Craig Robinson, brother-in-law of President Obama, to get this program to the Big Dance, a circumstance that would make Obama’s notoriously chalk-filled NCAA Tourney picks even more interesting.

THE BOTTOM FEEDERS

Arizona State: Herb Sendek’s time in the desert has to be running out, as the N.C. State transplant hasn’t been able to get it done and the Sun Devils have been well below average ever since James Harden left to go play with Kevin Durant in Oklahoma City. This isn’t a bad team in its component parts, but the collective group has lost to Pepperdine, Fairfield and DePaul, among others in a 4-8 start. I don’t know if that’s Sendek’s fault, but at the very least, he hasn’t been part of the solution in Tempe.

Utah: With a  3-9 record and only two decent players in Josh Watkins inside and Jason Washburn outside, it’s going to be a long season for the Utes.

Overall, I think the Pac-12 has more depth than has been the case in years. There’s potentially six NCAA Tournament teams here and I like the size that most of the programs have throughout their lineup, especially on the wings. That’s something that can create matchup problems for opponents in March. Now it’s about seeing who can put it all together.