Miami and San Antonio have advanced in the NBA playoffs. New York, Oklahoma City and Chicago have all missed chances for a road clinch. With six first-round series still up for grabs, today’s NBA commentary will run through where we stand on all the matchups. All have completed four games, with Brooklyn-Chicago being five deep. We’ll start with a soundbite summary and then go into more detail.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Defense and LeBron was more than enough for Miami to complete its workmanlike sweep of Milwaukee.
Brooklyn got aggressive on the boards and it’s the reason they’re alive to see a Game 6 in Chicago.
Indiana looks like what now retired team president Larry Bird said about them last year—S-O-F-T—as they let Atlanta tie up the series in decisive fashion.
New York missed its chance to sweep, but there’s every reason for Knicks fans to continue feeling good about the way their team competed in Game 4 at Boston.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
Serge Ibaka should now be the focal point for analysis regarding Oklahoma City, and his coming up small is the reason Houston won Game 4.
Memphis and the LA Clippers haven’t played since our last update and resume hostilities in Game 5 tonight.
Is Denver head coach George Karl committed to the idea of letting Golden State run him out of the playoffs? If so, the strategy is working.
I’ll break no new ground in saying this, but the Los Angeles Lakers should be ashamed of the series-long “effort” they put up in losing four straight to San Antonio.
INSIDE THE EASTERN CONFERENCE
(1)Miami vs (8)Milwaukee: There’s not much more to go on here than the soundbite. Milwaukee, to no one’s surprise, could not compete with Miami for four quarters. The Heat were so confident that they rested Dwayne Wade in Game 4, certain that they could win a road game and let their veteran star get some time off for his knee. When you play defense you can do that, and Miami does. They held the Bucks to 37 percent shooting, and LeBron carried the load with a 30 points/8 rebounds/7 assists game that keyed the 88-77 win. Wade will be rested and ready for the second round.
(4)Brooklyn vs. (5)Chicago: After their crushing triple-overtime loss in Game 4 and then seeing the Bulls come out and play feisty for three quarters in Game 5, I half-expected the Nets to roll over in the fourth quarter. They didn’t and it’s because they got on the boards. In a game where both teams executed well on the offensive side, the Nets enjoyed a 44-33 rebounding edge and pulled away late to win 110-91. Brook Lopez was the big hero with a 28 points/10 rebounds night, and don’t discount Reggie Evans, with his 12 boards.
Don’t discount Brooklyn at all. They just need one road win to get this series back to the Barclays Center for a deciding Game 7, a scenario that heavily favors the home team in the NBA more than other sports. Chicago’s Kirk Hinrich did not play in Game 5 and is still questionable for Game 6.
(3)Indiana vs. (6)Atlanta: My disgust level with the Pacers, the team I picked to reach the conference finals out of this half of the bracket, is peaking right now. And peaking is something the Indiana defense is decidedly not doing. Atlanta had its fourth consecutive good game on the offensive end, and their second straight blowout win, this one by a 102-91 count. Defense is supposed to keep you in it on the road, but the Pacers have been non-competitive in the two games in Atlanta.
The Hawks hit 11/24 from three-point range, with Kyle Korver and Anthony Tolliver doing the bulk of the damage of the bench, a combined 8-for-11 from behind the arc. Josh Smith had his best game of the playoffs with a 29 points/11 rebounds showing and Al Horford scored 18. We’re still waiting for Roy Hibbert to step up and assert himself in the low post for Indiana. We were waiting for the same thing last spring. I have a feeling we’ll still be waiting come summertime.
(2)New York vs. (7)Boston—The Celtics dug down and came up with a win to extend their season and ensure that if this is the end for Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett, their potential last game in the Garden was a win, 97-90 in overtime. But New York rallied for 22 down, and the Knicks owned the glass. In spite of a big day for Garnett (17 rebounds), New York’s balance and consistency created a 58-40 edge on the boards. You won’t lose too many when you rebound like that.
What New York did not do was shoot the ball well, going 34 percent from the floor and 7/30 from behind the arc. Carmelo Anthony was a big culprit here. The 36 points belie the fact he went a stone-cold 10-for-35 from the floor. Yeah, he took 35 shots. The Knicks were also hurt by the loss of J.R. Smith, their fine shooting guard who was suspended for a cheap shot he threw at Boston’s Jason Terry in Game 3.
INSIDE THE WESTERN CONFERENCE MATCHUPS
(1)Oklahoma City vs (8)Houston: With Russell Westbrook out and OkC looking for other contributors, I’ve felt that power forward Serge Ibaka is the one who has to step up. He did in Game 3 and the Thunder won their first game without Westbrook. Ibaka was a non-factor in Game 4 last night, and Houston was able to squeak out a 105-103 win and extend this series to a fifth game.
Ibaka’s non-showing wasn’t limited to the offensive end, nor was he the only inside player to let Oklahoma City down. Houston got a big night from center Omer Asik, with 17 points/14 rebounds and forward Chandler Parsons lit it up for 27/10. The fact Oklahoma City lost one game on the road should not bother them. But the fact they could lose to Houston on a night when James Harden had his worst game of the playoffs—15 points on 4-of-12 shooting—has to disturb the Thunder. And don’t pin it on Kevin Durant, who dropped in 38, and unlike Melo in New York, Durant did it with efficiency, hitting 12 of his 16 shots from the floor.
(4)LA Clippers vs (5)Memphis: This series resumes tonight out west, tied at two games apiece. So far the home team has not only won, but usually done it by controlling the glass. Both teams have their share of quality rebounders, so we’ll see if that continues to hold true.
(3)Denver vs. (6)Golden State: For the second straight game, Denver coach George Karl tried to match up with Golden State by going finesse on finesse and played a startling lineup of Kenneth Faried and four guards. Karl did not give any real minutes to Javale McGee or Kosta Koufus off the bench. Karl did not seek to exploit Golden State’s obvious vulnerability inside without the injured David Lee. Instead, the Nuggets coach played to the strength of the Warriors and unsurprisingly lost, 115-101.
Denver has done what seemed impossible, and lost all three games since Lee went down, giving Golden State three shots to clinch. Like Brooklyn, you don’t want to bury Denver too quickly. The Nuggets only need to win one road game to come from behind in this series. But unlike Brooklyn, Denver shows no signs of being competitive on the road. They can’t stop Steph Curry, who barbequed their defense for 31 points in Game 4 and unless Denver changes strategy I won’t be surprised if they lose it at home.
(2)San Antonio vs. (7)LA Lakers: I know the Lakers were not going to win this series, and that once it was apparent that Steve Nash couldn’t contribute and was eventually sidelined, that even an extended series was not in the cards. But the Lakers flat-out rolled over in both of their home games, culminating with Sunday’s 103-82 loss.
A team with Dwight Howard and Pau Gasol should at least compete and the Lakers did not—and they fact they were an 11.5 point underdog on their home floor shows how little respect Howard has among those who bet these games seriously.
San Antonio is what Los Angeles is not, and that’s a complete team that does everything the right way. They beat the Lakers in transition, with Tony Parker leading the way with 23 points. The Spurs got up by 18 at the half, coasted home and got their veteran legs some rest while they wait for the second round.
THE VIEW FROM VEGAS
San Antonio and Golden State remain the gamblers’ favorites, each having delivered the goods all four times out. The Spurs kept matching beating lines that grew as the series went on and did it easily. The Warriors, after a loss-but-cover in Game 1, have won their next three games as an underdog, including on their home floor where they got between 1-2 points. My podcast colleague, Greg DePalma at Prime Sports Network, with whom I appear each Monday, had taken Golden State at 7-1 to win this series, a number that appeared after their Game 1 loss and Lee’s injury. That’s looking like the best bet of the playoffs already.
WHAT’S AHEAD
We’ve got five games over Tuesday and Wednesday that will complete the Game 5s and bring every series even by the time we get to Thursday morning. Here’s the lineup….
Tuesday
Golden State-Denver (8, TNT)
Memphis-LA Clippers (10:30 PM ET, TNT)
Wednesday
Boston-New York (7 PM ET, TNT)
Atlanta-Indiana (8 PM ET, NBA-TV)
Houston-Oklahoma City (9:30 PM ET, TNT)
TheSportsNotebook’s NBA commentary resumes Thursday morning, with the possibility that Golden State, New York and Oklahoma City could all be in the second round. The latter two have the chance to do it at home. Also, don’t forget to check out TheSportsNotebook’s NHL playoffs preview, as those games begin Tuesday night.
Six favorites in the NBA playoffs stood up and defended their home floor. Somewhat improbably, the two that failed to do so—Denver and Brooklyn who each lost Game 2s—did it in spite of facing wounded adversaries. The sequence of Game 3s starts tonight and goes through Saturday, so today’s NBA commentary will check in on where each series stands. We’ll first summarize each series in a sentence, then go into further detail…
EASTERN CONFERENCE
At least the Milwaukee-Miami series is interesting for gamblers, with the Bucks eking out one cover in the first two games.
Chicago’s Joakim Noah has a ton of heart and that’s the reason Chicago is alive against Brooklyn.
Indiana looks good against Atlanta, but beneath the surface there are some red flag.
New York looks like a team ready to get serious, as they’ve locked Boston down defensively.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
Oklahoma City’s defense remains deceptively good against inefficient, but feisty, Houston.
Memphis can compete with the Los Angeles Clippers, but if they couldn’t win Game 2 where exactly does their road win(s) come from?
Denver’s rebounding “effort” was a positive disgrace in letting Golden State back in the series.
If Steve Nash isn’t healthier than he appears any hopes of the Los Angeles Lakers competing with San Antonio back in the Staples Center are a pipe dream.
Now on with more detail…
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Milwaukee-Miami: The Bucks are showing up to compete, and have hung with the Heat in the first half for two straight games now. They also shot 50 percent from the floor in Game 2, a stat that should bother Miami head coach Erik Spoelstra. If Brandon Jennings and Monta Ellis hadn’t gone 0-for-10 from three-point range, it could have been tighter than the 98-86 final. At the very least, Milwaukee rewarded its bettors by covering the 14.5 point line.
Ultimately though, I just don’t want to read anything in this series. If Miami looks good…well, they’re facing the worst team in the playoffs, and one that’s worse than at least two non-playoff teams from the West (Utah & Dallas). If they have problems—like some less-than-intense defense in Game 2—it’s just something for Spoelstra to use to keep his team motivated.
Chicago-Brooklyn: You knew the Bulls would come out with a lot of defensive effort in Game 2 after they were embarrassed in the opener. What we didn’t know was that a wounded Joakim Noah would dig deep and join Luol Deng and Carlos Boozer in getting double digits on the boards. Even that might have been overcome, but Brooklyn just did not answer, and the Bulls got a 90-82 win.
Brooklyn is a team with plenty of its rebounders of its own, starting with Brook Lopez and including Reggie Evans and Andray Blatche. The Nets didn’t meet the intensity that the entire world knew the Bulls would bring.
I still believe Brooklyn is going to win this series—for all the talk of road teams stealing homecourt advantage when they get a road win, let’s keep in mind that sweeping a presumably better team in three home games isn’t exactly easy. In all likelihood, Chicago’s going to need one more win the Barclays Center to win the series, and I don’t think they’ll get it. But the pressure is now on the Nets as they head to the Windy City needing to get a road win.
Atlanta-Indiana: Yes, the Pacers have looked fantastic on the offensive end in this series. The 113-98 blowout win Game 2 means they’re averaging 110 ppg and winning by an average margin of 16 points. But for the second straight game I don’t like the defense. The Hawks shot 49 percent from the floor and after Indiana spent the season as the best defensive team I the NBA, that’s something to be concerned about.
Right now it might not matter, with Paul George playing his second straight great game, knocking down 27 points and grabbing eight rebounds. On the Atlanta side, Al Horford and Josh Smith were again pedestrian, combining for 29 points/16 rebounds, almost exactly what they did in the opener. It appears Horford and Smith have embraced their city’s tradition of seeing its sports stars doing sort-of okay in the playoffs, but never really stepping up. If they both come to play in the middle games, the Indiana defensive laxity will become an issue.
Boston-New York: The Knicks are playing some lockdown defense right now, holding the Celtics to 37 percent shooting in a decisive 87-71 win in Game 2. Carmelo Anthony looks like a player who wants to lead his team in these playoffs. His 34-point night on Tuesday gives him 70 for the playoffs, and he’s shooting 24-for-53 from the floor. That might not sound sizzling, but 45 percent on that type of volume is very effective and New York’s not going to be stopped short of the conference finals if they D it up like this and Melo continues to answer the bell.
I picked Boston to win this series because of their ability to defend the three-point line. I expect the Celtics to play well back in Boston and certainly if they win two home games we could have a series again. But, picking up on a point from further up, I don’t know that thinking the Celts are going to sweep Games 3,4 & 6 in the Garden is realistic, even if they do figure out their offensive problems. New York’s played well up in Boston this season, and the ability of the Knicks to defend their home floor early—quite literally in this case—means this one is probably not going further than five games.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
Houston-Oklahoma City: The Rockets came out and competed last night in Game 2, and though they lost 105-102, it was an immensely entertaining game to watch. The effort level could be seen in the 57-41 rebounding edge they enjoyed on the Thunder, in spite of Houston not being a particularly big team. But Omer Asik played like the center he is, with 14 rebounds, James Harden grabbed 11 and point guard Patrick Beverley chased down 12. Note to the OkC guards—try boxing out and hustling down long rebounds.
But what the Thunder do is keep playing defense. They held Houston a hair under 40 percent from the floor. Though Harden got 36, he went 9-for-24 from the field. The high score totals are a product of pace, not offensive quality and it’s Oklahoma City that’s doing the superior job on the defensive end.
This series may have an injury factor—both Jeremy Lin and Russell Westbrook are listed as questionable for Game 3 in Houston. “Questionable” almost always means a player is going to play, especially at this time of year, but with Westbrook’s knee being banged up, it’s something to keep an eye on.
Memphis-LA Clippers: The Grizzlies hung in all the way, and like in Game 1, they made some pushes at times when it looked like Los Angeles was going to pull away. The teams were virtually even on the boards. The huge Clips’ edge from Game 1 became the statistically insignificant 40-38 margin in Game 2. All Memphis had to do was convert free throws. They got 34 attempts to LA’s 22, but the Grizzlies only made 23 of their foul shots and gave away their edge. It left the door open for Chris Paul to knock down a game-winner at the buzzer in a 93-91 final.
Monday night’s win at Staples started a great two-day sequence for the Clippers. The following night, on a fresh episode of NCIS Los Angeles, L.L. Cool J’s character is desperate to find a babysitter so he can go to a Clipper’s game. That scriptwriters are choosing the Clips over the Lakers for these shows is a surefire mark that Lob City has taken over the city from Showtime.
Golden State-Denver: When Iwrapped up the Game 1s, I said without hesitation that David Lee’s injury meant Golden State had no shot to win this series. Well, unless that is, Denver decides to make no effort at rebounding the basketball. Maybe that’s harsh, but when I see the Nuggets outrebounded 36-26, with both centers, Kosta Koufous and JaVale McGee as absolute non-factors, what else is there to think?
It gets worse with the fact that Golden State didn’t leave many rebounds to be had. The Warriors shot an astonishing 65 percent from the floor. Steph Curry had 30 points and 13 assists. Klay Thompson had his second game over 20 points and rookie Harrison Barnes was the man who stepped up, scoring 24. I still expect Denver to win one of the middle games in San Francisco, then close this series out in six, but the lack of rebounding intensity was disappointing.
LA Lakers-San Antonio: Tony Parker is owning Steve Nash in the backcourt right now. Parker knocked down 28 points last night, his second straight good game of the series. Nash only has nine assists combined in the first two games. Dwight Howard and Pau Gasol, after looking good in the opener, were more pedestrian in Game 2.
Los Angeles is to the West what Boston is to the East—the proud franchise with veterans that we know can compete, and just wonder if it can click. In that light, I wouldn’t call myself shocked if the Lakers find a way to win two back at home and make this a series. But if they were going to win it, they realistically needed one in the opener. And like Boston, it appears they missed their best chance in Game 1.
THE VIEW FROM VEGAS
Three teams have rewarded bettors with 2-0 starts to their series. Golden State has been golden to gamblers, with easy pointspread covers and one outright win, if anyone took a shot at them on the moneyline. San Antonio and Indiana have also covered both. New York is closer—I’ve officially got Game 1 as a push at (-7) in an 85-78 final, although it dropped to that point fairly late. So my records show the Knicks at 1-0-1 against the line, others may have this series even at the betting window.
Miami and Oklahoma City’s splits aren’t surprising—each are having to deal with big numbers, and the Thunder against a pretty good opponent.
LOOKING AHEAD TO GAME 3
Here’s the TV schedule for the Game 3s…
Thursday: Miami-Milwaukee (7 PM ET, TNT), Brooklyn-Chicago (8:30 PM ET, NBA-TV), LA Clippers-Memphis (9:30 PM ET, TNT)
Friday: New York-Boston (8 PM ET, ESPN), San Antonio-LA Lakers (10:30 PM ET, ESPN), Denver-Golden State (10:30 PM ET, ESPN2).
Saturday:Indiana-Atlanta (7 PM ET, ESPN), Oklahoma City-Houston (9:30 PM ET, ESPN)
In case you’re wondering about Saturday afternoon, the league slipped a pair of Game 4 matchups in that timeslot. TNT will have a doubleheader of Brooklyn-Chicago and LA Clippers-Memphis that tips at 2 PM ET. TheSportsNotebook’s NBA commentary will return Sunday morning to again overview all eight series.
Six favorites in the NBA playoffs stood up and defended their home floor. Somewhat improbably, the two that failed to do so—Denver and Brooklyn who each lost Game 2s—did it in spite of facing wounded adversaries. The sequence of Game 3s starts tonight and goes through Saturday, so today’s NBA commentary will check in on where each series stands. We’ll first summarize each series in a sentence, then go into further detail…
EASTERN CONFERENCE
*At least the Milwaukee-Miami series is interesting for gamblers, with the Bucks eking out one cover in the first two games.
*Chicago’s Joakim Noah has a ton of heart and that’s the reason Chicago is alive against Brooklyn.
*Indiana looks good against Atlanta, but beneath the surface there are some red flag.
*New York looks like a team ready to get serious, as they’ve locked Boston down defensively.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
*Oklahoma City’s defense remains deceptively good against inefficient, but feisty, Houston.
*Memphis can compete with the Los Angeles Clippers, but if they couldn’t win Game 2 where exactly does their road win(s) come from?
*Denver’s rebounding “effort” was a positive disgrace in letting Golden State back in the series.
*If Steve Nash isn’t healthier than he appears any hopes of the Los Angeles Lakers competing with San Antonio back in the Staples Center are a pipe dream.
Now on with more detail…
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Milwaukee-Miami: The Bucks are showing up to compete, and have hung with the Heat in the first half for two straight games now. They also shot 50 percent from the floor in Game 2, a stat that should bother Miami head coach Erik Spoelstra. If Brandon Jennings and Monta Ellis hadn’t gone 0-for-10 from three-point range, it could have been tighter than the 98-86 final. At the very least, Milwaukee rewarded its bettors by covering the 14.5 point line.
Ultimately though, I just don’t want to read anything in this series. If Miami looks good…well, they’re facing the worst team in the playoffs, and one that’s worse than at least two non-playoff teams from the West (Utah & Dallas). If they have problems—like some less-than-intense defense in Game 2—it’s just something for Spoelstra to use to keep his team motivated.
Chicago-Brooklyn: You knew the Bulls would come out with a lot of defensive effort in Game 2 after they were embarrassed in the opener. What we didn’t know was that a wounded Joakim Noah would dig deep and join Luol Deng and Carlos Boozer in getting double digits on the boards. Even that might have been overcome, but Brooklyn just did not answer, and the Bulls got a 90-82 win.
Brooklyn is a team with plenty of its rebounders of its own, starting with Brook Lopez and including Reggie Evans and Andray Blatche. The Nets didn’t meet the intensity that the entire world knew the Bulls would bring.
I still believe Brooklyn is going to win this series—for all the talk of road teams stealing homecourt advantage when they get a road win, let’s keep in mind that sweeping a presumably better team in three home games isn’t exactly easy. In all likelihood, Chicago’s going to need one more win the Barclays Center to win the series, and I don’t think they’ll get it. But the pressure is now on the Nets as they head to the Windy City needing to get a road win.
Atlanta-Indiana: Yes, the Pacers have looked fantastic on the offensive end in this series. The 113-98 blowout win Game 2 means they’re averaging 110 ppg and winning by an average margin of 16 points. But for the second straight game I don’t like the defense. The Hawks shot 49 percent from the floor and after Indiana spent the season as the best defensive team I the NBA, that’s something to be concerned about.
Right now it might not matter, with Paul George playing his second straight great game, knocking down 27 points and grabbing eight rebounds. On the Atlanta side, Al Horford and Josh Smith were again pedestrian, combining for 29 points/16 rebounds, almost exactly what they did in the opener. It appears Horford and Smith have embraced their city’s tradition of seeing its sports stars doing sort-of okay in the playoffs, but never really stepping up. If they both come to play in the middle games, the Indiana defensive laxity will become an issue.
Boston-New York: The Knicks are playing some lockdown defense right now, holding the Celtics to 37 percent shooting in a decisive 87-71 win in Game 2. Carmelo Anthony looks like a player who wants to lead his team in these playoffs. His 34-point night on Tuesday gives him 70 for the playoffs, and he’s shooting 24-for-53 from the floor. That might not sound sizzling, but 45 percent on that type of volume is very effective and New York’s not going to be stopped short of the conference finals if they D it up like this and Melo continues to answer the bell.
I picked Boston to win this series because of their ability to defend the three-point line. I expect the Celtics to play well back in Boston and certainly if they win two home games we could have a series again. But, picking up on a point from further up, I don’t know that thinking the Celts are going to sweep Games 3,4 & 6 in the Garden is realistic, even if they do figure out their offensive problems. New York’s played well up in Boston this season, and the ability of the Knicks to defend their home floor early—quite literally in this case—means this one is probably not going further than five games.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
Houston-Oklahoma City: The Rockets came out and competed last night in Game 2, and though they lost 105-102, it was an immensely entertaining game to watch. The effort level could be seen in the 57-41 rebounding edge they enjoyed on the Thunder, in spite of Houston not being a particularly big team. But Omer Asik played like the center he is, with 14 rebounds, James Harden grabbed 11 and point guard Patrick Beverley chased down 12. Note to the OkC guards—try boxing out and hustling down long rebounds.
But what the Thunder do is keep playing defense. They held Houston a hair under 40 percent from the floor. Though Harden got 36, he went 9-for-24 from the field. The high score totals are a product of pace, not offensive quality and it’s Oklahoma City that’s doing the superior job on the defensive end.
This series may have an injury factor—both Jeremy Lin and Russell Westbrook are listed as questionable for Game 3 in Houston. “Questionable” almost always means a player is going to play, especially at this time of year, but with Westbrook’s knee being banged up, it’s something to keep an eye on.
Memphis-LA Clippers: The Grizzlies hung in all the way, and like in Game 1, they made some pushes at times when it looked like Los Angeles was going to pull away. The teams were virtually even on the boards. The huge Clips’ edge from Game 1 became the statistically insignificant 40-38 margin in Game 2. All Memphis had to do was convert free throws. They got 34 attempts to LA’s 22, but the Grizzlies only made 23 of their foul shots and gave away their edge. It left the door open for Chris Paul to knock down a game-winner at the buzzer in a 93-91 final.
Monday night’s win at Staples started a great two-day sequence for the Clippers. The following night, on a fresh episode of NCIS Los Angeles, L.L. Cool J’s character is desperate to find a babysitter so he can go to a Clipper’s game. That scriptwriters are choosing the Clips over the Lakers for these shows is a surefire mark that Lob City has taken over the city from Showtime.
Golden State-Denver: When I wrapped up the Game 1s, I said without hesitation that David Lee’s injury meant Golden State had no shot to win this series. Well, unless that is, Denver decides to make no effort at rebounding the basketball. Maybe that’s harsh, but when I see the Nuggets outrebounded 36-26, with both centers, Kosta Koufous and JaVale McGee as absolute non-factors, what else is there to think?
It gets worse with the fact that Golden State didn’t leave many rebounds to be had. The Warriors shot an astonishing 65 percent from the floor. Steph Curry had 30 points and 13 assists. Klay Thompson had his second game over 20 points and rookie Harrison Barnes was the man who stepped up, scoring 24. I still expect Denver to win one of the middle games in San Francisco, then close this series out in six, but the lack of rebounding intensity was disappointing.
LA Lakers-San Antonio: Tony Parker is owning Steve Nash in the backcourt right now. Parker knocked down 28 points last night, his second straight good game of the series. Nash only has nine assists combined in the first two games. Dwight Howard and Pau Gasol, after looking good in the opener, were more pedestrian in Game 2.
Los Angeles is to the West what Boston is to the East—the proud franchise with veterans that we know can compete, and just wonder if it can click. In that light, I wouldn’t call myself shocked if the Lakers find a way to win two back at home and make this a series. But if they were going to win it, they realistically needed one in the opener. And like Boston, it appears they missed their best chance in Game 1.
THE VIEW FROM VEGAS
Three teams have rewarded bettors with 2-0 starts to their series. Golden State has been golden to gamblers, with easy pointspread covers and one outright win, if anyone took a shot at them on the moneyline. San Antonio and Indiana have also covered both. New York is closer—I’ve officially got Game 1 as a push at (-7) in an 85-78 final, although it dropped to that point fairly late. So my records show the Knicks at 1-0-1 against the line, others may have this series even at the betting window.
Miami and Oklahoma City’s splits aren’t surprising—each are having to deal with big numbers, and the Thunder against a pretty good opponent.
LOOKING AHEAD TO GAME 3
Here’s the TV schedule for the Game 3s…
Thursday: Miami-Milwaukee (7 PM ET, TNT), Brooklyn-Chicago (8:30 PM ET, NBA-TV), LA Clippers-Memphis (9:30 PM ET, TNT)
Friday: New York-Boston (8 PM ET, ESPN), San Antonio-LA Lakers (10:30 PM ET, ESPN), Denver-Golden State (10:30 PM ET, ESPN2).
Saturday:Indiana-Atlanta (7 PM ET, ESPN), Oklahoma City-Houston (9:30 PM ET, ESPN)
In case you’re wondering about Saturday afternoon, the league slipped a pair of Game 4 matchups in that timeslot. TNT will have a doubleheader of Brooklyn-Chicago and LA Clippers-Memphis that tips at 2 PM ET. TheSportsNotebook’s NBA commentary will return Sunday morning to again overview all eight series.
The long road of the regular season and the playoffs are set to start on Saturday. TheSportsNotebook breaks down the four first-round matchups in the Eastern Conference. We’ll open with the three points that I’d consider the most important to remember for each series, expound with some analysis and then conclude with some type of historical tidbit, and a prediction. You can click here to read the Western Conference previews.
(1)Miami (66-16) vs. (8) Milwaukee (38-44)
IN A NUTSHELL
*Milwaukee’s perimeter-oriented offense renders them unable to exploit Miami’s vulnerability down low.
*Miami’s offense is the most efficient in the NBA, and while the Milwaukee defense isn’t bad, their rebounding is.
*The series will be a contrast of tempos, but despite what you may think, it’s the Bucks who will try and push the pace, while the Heat play a halfcourt game.
ANALYSIS
The above three points basically confirm the obvious, which is that there’s no way on earth Milwaukee can push this series past five games, and even getting that far would be something of a minor miracle. In last week’s NBA commentary, we broke down the Heat a little more extensively, so I won’t waste words here on a series no one thinks they’ll lose—but in a nutshell, Miami is an exceptionally disciplined offense and do a great job covering their weaknesses.
Milwaukee center Larry Sanders is a good young player, a rebounder and shot-blocker, who can have a solid series against the soft Miami interior. But there’s nowhere near enough of him. The most that’s worth wondering about is if the Bucks’ three-headed backcourt of Monta Ellis, Brandon Jennings and J.. Redick can get hot enough from three-point range to enable the team to cover pointspreads, if not win games. But if you’re not a gambler, and are only interested in whether the Heat can be made to sweat, the answer is quite obviously no.
HISTORICAL TIDBIT: There’s no real history between these teams or cities, but anytime the Heat come to Wisconsin, it’s a return home for Dwayne Wade, who led Marquette to the 2003 Final Four and is still highly regarded by the fans in the area where I live.
PREDICTION: Miami in four.
**************
(4)Brooklyn (49-33) vs. (5) Chicago (45-37)
IN A NUTSHELL
*This series is a clear contrast between a star-oriented team in Brooklyn, and a less-talented, but perhaps more cohesive unit in Chicago.
*Both teams play a slower pace, neither one excels behind the arc and strengths and weaknesses match up—the Nets are good on offense, while the Bulls are solid on defense. When you flip that, neither is very good.
*Brooklyn brings strength in rebounding, while Chicago defends the three-point shot particularly well.
ANALYSIS
Brooklyn’s trio of Joe Johnson and Deron Williams in the backcourt, along with Brook Lopez at center, gave them a core of talent that can win a championship, much less a first-round series against a Rose-less Chicago team. But is the core adequately supported? On the boards, the answer is yes. Reggie Evans cleans up to the tune of 11 rebounds per game, and Andre Blatche chips in off the bench. There’s not as much help when it comes to distributing the ball or scoring. Gerald Wallace has had a disappointing year, and no one’s going to mistake Keith Bogans or C.J. Watson as role players on a championship team.
Chicago will have Joakim Noah healthy, and that gives them a defender and rebounder that can match up with Lopez. Carlos Boozer is averaging 16 points/10 rebounds per game at the power forward spot and Luol Deng has stepped it up to average 17 ppg. What the Bulls need to do is make sure that Deng doesn’t get carried away shooting the three-ball. The Bulls can win this series if they force it to be settled inside the arc and in a defense-first series, something that playoff basketball often turns into. Brooklyn launches a lot of threes (7th-most in the NBA), but the percentage (17th in the league) doesn’t justify the confidence. Johnson and Williams are the ones who need to be taking the big shots and if the Nets keep focused on their Big Three—go down to Lopez, kick back out to Johnson and Williams—then they can win the series.
HISTORICAL TIDBIT: Another matchup with little in the way of extraneous context. They last met in the playoffs in 1998, Michael Jordan’s final championship run.
PREDICTION: Brooklyn in seven.
***********************
(3)Indiana (49-32) vs. (6) Atlanta (44-38)
IN A NUTSHELL
*It’s a big battle down low, with Indiana having Roy Hibbert and David West, going up against Atlanta’s combo of Al Horford and Josh Smith.
*Indiana is the best defensive and rebounding team in the NBA, while Atlanta’s Kyle Korver is the league’s premier three-point shooter.
*Each team is hurt by injuries, with Indiana having lost Danny Granger, and Atlanta being without Lou Williams, along with backup interior player Zaza Pachulia.
ANALYSIS
The Hibbert/West vs. Horford/Smith matchup is one of the most intriguing personnel battles in the first round. Smith has a three-point shooting dimension—or at least tries to, though he only hits 30 percent from behind the arc. Hibbert brings a shot-blocking presence that Atlanta doesn’t really have, but what these teams have in common down low is more compelling then what’s different. Presuming that Smith’s three-point shooting efforts don’t decide the series—for better or worse—this will come down to the backcourts and the wings.
Paul George gives Indiana a big boost to their offense, as the small forward averages 17 points/8 rebounds/4 assist per game and is a competent shooter behind the arc. George Hill is a solid complementary player at the two-guard spot. I don’t see Atlanta’s guards matching up. Jeff Teague can run an offense and is a nice scorer, but Devin Harris is not as good as his Pacer counterparts. Then you add in the fact that Indiana’s defensive numbers suggest they play more cohesively, and it’s hard to find reasons to pick against the favorite.
HISTORICAL TIDBIT: Atlanta’s best chance at an NBA title came in 1994. They were the top seed in the East in a year where Jordan was on his baseball sabbatical and there was no dominant team in the league. It was Indiana who ruined the dream in the second round, as Reggie Miller’s Pacers came within one win of the Finals themselves.
PREDICTION: Indiana in six.
************************
(2)New York (54-28) vs (7)Boston (41-40)
IN A NUTSHELL
*It’s a matchup of contrasts—the Knicks are offensive-oriented, while the Celtics still rely on their defense. New York lives on the three-point line, while Boston is in the top five defending the trey.
*New York averages a 4-point margin per game in free throw scoring, a byproduct of the ability of Carmelo Anthony to go down low and Tyson Chandler’s low-post presence. It’s unusual for a perimeter-oriented offense to enjoy an edge at the line.
*Boston can run a lot of quality guards on the floor, even without Rajon Rondo, but Kevin Garnett is going to be a lonely warrior down low against Chandler and an array of veteran inside talent that the Knicks appear to have healthy.
ANALYSIS
Carmelo Anthony is the scoring champ, averaging 29 ppg, while Paul Pierce put up a big year himself, averaging 19 ppg. Each small forward attacks the glass respectably, at seven rebounds per game. Anthony is clearly the better player at this stage of their careers, but the big intangible is that Melo has never done it in the postseason, while Pierce is a proud warrior.
Furthermore, while the Knicks have clearly been the better team this season, it’s hard to look at the rosters and say that New York should be a demonstrable favorite when everyone starts fresh. The biggest Knicks’ edge is inside, but to emphasize that part of their team would mean going away from the three-ball, where they lead the league in attempts. And what team in its right mind changes their personality at playoff time, especially when they’re the favorite? The matchup is a good one for the Celtics—Indiana could have exploited Boston’s lack of depth underneath, but New York either can’t or won’t.
HISTORICAL TIDBIT: It’s really just another chapter in the sports history between these two cities in general, this one coming right on the heels of the terror attack at the Boston Marathon and the fact that the city of New York’s sports fans were the most noble in reaching out to Boston (the Yankees sang Sweet Caroline to honor the Red Sox). I expect more of the same here, and this series should provide great basketball on the court and feel-good moments off it.
PREDICTION: Normally I eschew making a prediction on key games involving my favorite teams, of which the Celtics are. But I feel good about this series, and I’ll go out there and say Boston is going to win it in six.
(1)Miami vs (8)Milwaukee: There’s not much more to go on here than the soundbite. Milwaukee, to no one’s surprise, could not compete with Miami for four quarters. The Heat were so confident that they rested Dwayne Wade in Game 4, certain that they could win a road game and let their veteran star get some time off for his knee. When you play defense you can do that, and Miami does. They held the Bucks to 37 percent shooting, and LeBron carried the load with a 30 points/8 rebounds/7 assists game that keyed the 88-77 win. Wade will be rested and ready for the second round.
(3)Denver vs. (6)Golden State: For the second straight game, Denver coach George Karl tried to match up with Golden State by going finesse on finesse and played a startling lineup of Kenneth Faried and four guards. Karl did not give any real minutes to Javale McGee or Kosta Koufus off the bench. Karl did not seek to exploit Golden State’s obvious vulnerability inside without the injured David Lee. Instead, the Nuggets coach played to the strength of the Warriors and unsurprisingly lost, 115-101.