Menu

Miami Marlins playoff chances

MLB Coverage: Miami Picks Up The Pace

, , , , ,

The Miami Marlins have been well off everyone’s radar this season, and given their current record is 30-51, that’s with good reason. But the Marlins have begun to show some signs of life lately, and some talk about their young players is quietly picking up. ESPN’s Aaron Boone singled them out for praise on Monday Night Baseball last night, and quoted San Francisco Giants’ manager Bruce Bochy doing the same. So let’s take a look at the Marlins and see what we might expect.

Before going through the personnel, let’s step back and ask ourselves what the basis is for evaluation. Clearly, not even the most optimistic observers think the Marlins are going to be in shouting distance of the playoff race this year, even if they had the lungs of a soprano. What I’m looking at is the number 63.5.

That was the Over/Under total posted in Las Vegas this spring on the team’s expected win total. I picked the Over. Right now, Miami’s only on a pace for 60, so our first question is whether they can improve enough to reward their bettors. We’ll also look at what veterans they have who might fetch a price in this month’s trade sweepstakes.


GOOD YOUNG PITCHING

The strength of Miami’s team is their pitching, which is in fact seventh in the National League in ERA, placing them narrowly in the league’s upper half. The starting rotation and bullpen are both fairly well balanced, and the pen does a good job of closing save chances, with their 69 percent clearance rate being above the league average.

Jose Fernandez is the prize young arm, and the 20-year-old has posted a 2.72 ERA in 16 starts. Jacob Turner, only two years older, has started six times and has a buck-76 ERA. And over the past couple weeks, Miami has been lifted by the return of Nathan Eovaldi. You may recall he was the centerpiece prospect in the deal that sent Hanley Ramirez to the Los Angeles Dodgers last year, but then Eovaldi immediately required elbow surgery. He’s back, and in three starts against Arizona, San Francisco and San Diego, has gone six innings each time out with an ERA of 2.00.

The trio of Fernandez, Turner and Eovaldi make a nice core group to build with, but the key veteran is Ricky Nolasco. With a 3.93 ERA in 17 starts, the Marlins could use Nolasco to improve his performance just a little bit. He doesn’t have to be a big-time ace, but he’s still capable of a lower ERA than that in the National League. If Miami wants to build for a playoff run next season, he would be important. More likely, Nolasco will be their most valuable trade chip this year and you want his ERA low enough that it would translate well to an American League contender where he would have to face a designated hitter.

Steve Cishek has become a nice closer—not dominant, but good enough to get the job done, closing 15/17 save chances with a 3.12 ERA. The pen is a mix of veterans and young kids, and you have to think that arms like Chad Qualls will be moved to a contender sometime this month. The same goes for Kevin Slowey. Miami has called up a live young arm in Dan Jennings, who’s pitched great in his 13 innings of work, and the Marlins need to get him a lot of action in the second half.

AN OFFENSE BEYOND ANEMIC

There’s no point in sugar-coating anything with this offense—it is absolutely horrific and there’s not a lot of hope that it will get better. Miami is last in the National League in runs scored, and they’re last in both component parts, in on-base percentage and slugging percentage.

What’s more, it’s not like everyone playing is a young kid. One of the few bright spots is the .366 on-base percentage of third baseman Ed Lucas, but Lucas is 31-years-old with no track record of success. Veterans Juan Pierre and Justin Ruggiano are in the outfield, as will Chris Coghlan when he comes off the disabled list in the next couple of weeks. Logan Morrison has swung a hot bat in limited duty at first base, but he’s had an up-and-down career of his own.

Miami has one piece on offense that’s Giancarlo Stanton. He’s only 23-years-old, though he already seems like a veteran. In spite of some missed time on the DL this year, Stanton has a stat line of .351 on-base percentage/.480 slugging percentage, with his best work during the team’s recent strong play. Another one to keep an eye on is 22-year-old outfielder Marcell Ozuna, at .330/.427. Beyond that, Miami needs a lot of help here.

WHAT’S AHEAD

Miami’s recent good stretch amounts to winning 11 of 16, and that includes series wins over the Cardinals and the defending champion Giants. I still like Miami’s chances of avoiding 100 losses and getting up into the mid-60s for wins, something that would constitute a level of success, although it won’t get anyone in Miami to move beyond the city’s NBA championship run.

But I like the Marlins, especially if they can trade off some of the role player vets in the lineup and the bullpen, and just take whatever they can get in return. None are good enough to justify keeping the younger kids on the sidelines.

It’s the fate of Nolasco that’s a bigger issue when it comes to this season. They need his stabilizing presence at the top if they’re going to continue improvement. I’m not saying I’d hesitate to pull the trigger on a deal if the right package becomes available—63.5 might be our magic number for the purposes of this article, but if Miami can get a couple good young prospects in the everyday lineup, that would be worth the price.

AROUND THE NL EAST

Atlanta (48-34): The Braves just stay steady, as inconsistency and debate surrounds the other teams in this division.

Washington (42-40): Bryce Harper is back, so if the Nationals are going to make a move—and I think they are—now would be the time.

Philadelphia (39-44): In last week’s MLB coverage we asked if it was time for the Phillies to throw in the towel and trade players like Cliff Lee and Jonathan Papelbon. The Phils have done nothing in the past week to suggest that going for it is an intelligent solution.

NY Mets (34-45): A lot of players come back from the disabled list in July—Frank Francisco, Justin Turner, Lucas Duda and Jonathan Niese. Maybe the Mets can still make a run at .500.

MLB Coverage: Four World Series Longshots

, , , , ,

Last season it was the Baltimore Orioles and Oakland A’s who came from off the grid, so to speak, and shocked the baseball world with a push into the playoffs and each reached the decisive game of the Division Series round before falling. Are there any such candidates for a similar stunning season in 2013?

Well, if we could say with certainty, they wouldn’t be shockers. But we can at least assess the teams at the bottom of the ladder when it comes to the early betting odds in Las Vegas. TheSportsNotebook’s preseason MLB coverage will therefore focus on the four teams with the longest World Series odds. That’s Miami and Colorado in the National League, along with Minnesota and league-jumping Houston in the American League.

Minnesota: I’m leading off with the Twins because I consider them the most credible candidate to have a surprise playoff run. Joe Mauer got his on-base percentage back up to the .400-plus levels he was producing during his MVP year of 2009 and the seasons leading up to it. Now, the Twins need Justin Morneau to follow suit. The one-time MVP at first base has teased at different points over the last two years, with stretches of hitting suggesting he might return to a level of play we haven’t seen since 2010. But Morneau hasn’t put together a good full season yet. That has to change if the Twins are to effect a turnaround.

Josh Willingham had a big year in 2012 and even if the 34-year-old can’t replicate his .366 on-base percentage/.524 slugging percentage stat line, or his 35 home runs, he’s still a solid all-around bat. Willingham is also a valuable trade chip if the season doesn’t go well. He’s joined in the lineup by young third baseman Trevor Plouffe, who showed he could hit for power last year, and now just needs to develop some plate discipline.  There is considerable pressure on the four players mentioned—Mauer, Morneau, Willingham and Plouffe—to produce, because the holes elsewhere in the lineup are substantial.

Minnesota made a nice acquisition of young Philadelphia Phillies’ starter Vance Worley, who pitched well, but was always getting angled out of work by the Phils’ veteran aces and their need to win right now. Worley has a terrific shot at building a solid career in Minnesota. The same goes for Scott Diamond, who pitched well for Minnesota last year and just needs to get recovered from an elbow injury. He may miss the start of the season, but current reports don’t have him out much longer than that. After these two, the Twins need the young duo of Liam Hendriks and Cole DeVries to build off some promising showings in limited action last year, or for a veteran like a Brian Duensing or Mike Pelfrey to show they can revive their career. The bullpen isn’t spectacular, but it has enough arms to be competitive.

The Twins Over/Under number on wins this year is 68.5. Last season I was vocal that the team would easily go Over a 73.5 number and I was vocally wrong. I’ll be a little quieter about it this time around, but I’m still going Over. And if Detroit falters in the AL Central, it’s anybody’s guess who picks up the pieces. That’s the scenario that makes Minnesota’s 60-1 odds to win the American League pennant, or 125-1 to win it all, interesting.

Houston: There’s no team that the Las Vegas oddsmakers are more pessimistic on. The 300-1 odds to win the World Series are tied with Miami for the longest, and the Over/Under number of 59 for wins is the lowest on the board. The Astros earned that pessimism with their play last year and now they have to get familiar with a new league—plus find another bat to be the DH. But all isn’t necessarily lost.

Houston has a nice group of developing offensive players. Jose Altuve is a good-hitting second baseman, while Justin Maxwell and Fernando Martinez are respectable in the outfield. Even better is the acquisition of Chris Carter from Oakland. The leftfielder posted a .350/.514 stat line in a park that’s very tough to hit. Now he comes to hitter-friendly Minute Maid Park and has a chance to really see his career take off.

The corner infield has definite potential in Brett Wallace and Matt Dominguez. With Wallace, his 26-years-old now, and I’d like to see him move beyond potential and into performance. Dominguez is 23 and merits a little more patience. If they can come through, Houston will be able to score runs.

Bud Norris, Lucas Harrell and Philip Humber make for an interesting top three in the rotation. All are in the 28-30 age range, so we can’t just slap the potential label on them. But each has shown enough actual performance to give some hope. Norris is two years removed from a 3.77 ERA. Harrell isn’t far from respectability. And Humber had been good with the White Sox until he pitched a perfect game last April and then saw his season fall apart. It’s realistic to think that all three of these pitchers could be respectable, and then you have highly regarded 22-year-old Jordan Lyles developing in the four-spot.

It’s the bullpen that’s going to be the problem. Jose Veras is 32-years-old, spent his career as a setup or middle relief man and has been mostly mediocre. As a reward, he’ll be the closer in Houston. Good luck with that. I’m guessing 28-year-old Wesley Wright, an arm that’s actually been effective at the major league level ends up with the job by the All-Star break.

Even if Veras and Wright make an effective combo, there’s no depth in front of them. The pitchers aren’t going seven innings strong and even if they could, these relievers can’t pitch every night. If you hang with Houston through six innings, you’ll win a lot of games. That’s why I’m still going Under on their wins, even knowing that requires a 104-loss campaign.

Miami: What a difference a year makes. From being considered a legitimate World Series contender at this time last year, to 300-1 shots this time around, the Marlins have fallen hard. If they’re going to surprise everyone, a la their World Series years of 1997 and 2003, it starts with rightfielder Giancarlo Stanton. He’s hit 71 home runs in the last two years and is a bona fide star. After that, the Miami offense needs Logan Morrison to return to 2010 form when he was a good all-around offensive player. Centerfielder Justin Ruggiano had a good year in 2012, but that was limited duty (288 at-bats) and it was the first sign of anything at age 31. It smells like a fluke.

The rest of the lineup is a mix of very young—catcher Rob Brantly and second baseman Donovan Solano have potential—and very old, where third baseman Placido Polanco hasn’t had a good year since 2008 and the Marlins are hoping Juan Pierre in left can replicate his .351 OBP of a year ago.

It’s all about development in the starting pitching. Miami will count on young arms in Henderson Alvarez, Nate Eovaldi and Jacob Turner to come through, or at least give signs that they might come through in a future year. I like all three arms—whether they all come together in the same year is another question, but I think this pitching staff looks good for the long haul. For the short haul, the need Ricky Nolasco to get his career turned around, or a reclamation project like a Kevin Slowey or John Maine to be able to help. The bullpen will be anchored by Steve Chisek, who was pretty good after taking over for Heath Bell a year ago. The setup crew is anyone’s guess, but keep an eye on Dan Jennings. He’s a live young arm who had a buck-89 ERA in 19 innings last year.

The win prop number is 63.5, and I like the pitching here enough to go over. I’m not suggesting anyone run out and buy a longshot ticket on the playoffs or World Series—not in the NL East—but Miami has often played above expectations in years like this.

Colorado: Of all the longshots we’re talking about here today, Colorado is the one with the best offense. Granted, playing in Coors Field probably has a lot to do with that, but there’s a core of proven offensive talent that can hit anywhere. I refer to a healthy Troy Tulowitzki at short, Carlos Gonzalez in left, and Dexter Fowler in center. The latter is a quality table-setter and Tulowitzki and Gonzalez can both hang up MVP numbers.

Then you slide in complementary pieces like Michael Cuddyer in right field and young Wilin Rosario behind the plate. Both are a little unstable when it comes to consistently getting on base, but they do hit for power. Josh Rutledge and Chris Nelson at second and third base are each good young bats. They too, need to be more consistent just grinding out walks and getting on base, but like Rosario, they’re also young and can learn.

Todd Helton is listed as the starting first baseman, but you have to think this is it for the veteran first baseman. His production fell off badly last year and there are viable replacements. Cuddyer can play first base, and bench players like Jordan Pacheco and Eric Young are versatile enough to play anywhere. Tyler Colvin could also vie for time in the outfield and create room for Cuddyer to make a move. However when it shakes out, we’re likely looking at the end of a great career with Helton.

How many games will they win? The posted number is 71.5, the highest of the four teams discussed here. It depends a lot on the health of Jorge de la Rosa and Jhoulys Chacin, both of whom are coming back from injuries. In fact, you can reasonably argue that this franchise has not been the same since de la Rosa went down in the first half of 2011 with the Rockies still a solid contender in the NL West. The depth in the rotation is dependent on a young arm I like in Drew Pomeranz, along with Tyler Chatwood. Another young pitcher, Juan Nicasio, has been disappointing, but has time to turn his career back around.

Rafael Betancourt saved 31 games last year and is the anchor of a bullpen that should be pretty decent, with Wilton Lopez and Matt Belisle in front of him.

Colorado’s formula for success is simple—hit their way into games, get good bullpen work and count on de la Rosa and Chacin being healthy. If they do that, they’ll go Over on the win number and could play their way into contention. I’m taking the Over, but without enthusiasm—I’m just concerned about the likelihood of the veteran pitchers’ health. But getting to 72-90 isn’t asking the Rocks to scale Mount Everest, so I’ll take my chances.