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Miami Dolphins playoff chances

The Miami Dolphins Playoff Chances Are Alive & Well

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When the month of November began, the Miami Dolphins looked like a dead team walking. They were 4-4 and nominally in the NFL playoff picture, but the scandal involving offensive guard Richie Incognito’s bullying and harassment of offensive tackle Jonathan Martin–with the approval of teammates and potentially of coaches–threatened to engulf the team.

Media outlets, most definitely including TheSportsNotebook, wrote off Miami and figured they’d go down the path that was ultimately taken by Mike Shanahan and the Washington Redskins and just disintegrate and quit on the season.


But a funny thing happened on the way to oblivion. The Dolphins started playing some good football. They’ve won three of five, and are tied with the Baltimore Ravens for the final playoff berth in the AFC. To assess the Miami Dolphins playoff chances, let’s review how they’ve played the last five games–the period of time when they had to go without the suspended Incognito and the departed Martin–and then look ahead to the last three weeks.


November 11: On a Monday Night in Tampa Bay, the prophecies of oblivion look accurate. Miami loses to previously winless Tampa Bay 22-19, while rushing for just two yards. Quarterback Ryan Tannehill is sacked twice, but hit eight more times. It all seems to point to a lousy offensive line and a loss to a lousy team.

What we’ve seen since is that the Buccaneers have turned the corner, including a notable win at first-place Detroit. A close loss in Tampa Bay no longer looks like a complete indictment of a football operation.

November 17: In the first of a string games against other teams on the AFC playoff bubble, Miami scrapes out a 20-16 home win over San Diego. The Dolphins played crisp football, committing just three penalties to the Chargers’ ten, and the running game reappeared, with 104 yards on 19 rush attempts. With San Diego currently sitting on 6-7 and Miami at 7-6, this victory looms larger with each passing week.

November 24: A home loss to Carolina is nothing to be ashamed of, given the Panthers were in the midst of an eight-game win streak that included winning at San Francisco and beating New England. Furthermore, Miami had Carolina on the ropes, having played excellent defense against Cam Newton all day long.

While the running game didn’t work, no one runs well on the Panther defense this season, and Tannehill made up for it with 310 passing yards, and receiver Mike Wallace had his most productive day of the year with 127 of those yards. Newton finally pulled a couple rabbits out of his hat on the game’s final drive and Carolina won 20-16, but Miami had played well.

December 1: Another crucial game against a team that’s currently 6-7, saw the Dolphins batter the Jets on the road, 23-3. Tannehill was again sharp, throwing for 331 yards and this time it was Brian Hartline having his best receiving day of the year, with 127 yards.

December 8: Two straight weeks, the Dolphins win on the road in cold weather against a fellow wild-card contender. Their 34-28 win in Pittsburgh is remembered for the wild ending where Steeler receiver Antonio Brown stepped out of bounds on what would have been a game-winning touchdown play.


What that shouldn’t overlook is that Miami was the better team all game long. They ran the ball, with Daniel Thomas having his best day of the year with 105 rush yards. Tannehill was sharp, 20/33 for 200 yards and this time tight end Charles Clay was his favored target, seven catches for 97 yards. And the Miami defense stopped the run. The fluke would have been if they lost.

These five games as a whole show a team coming together and playing cohesive football. We see Tannehill solving some of the turnover problems that plagued him during an earlier four-game losing streak and spreading the ball around to different targets. We see different skill position players all having season-best performances.

What that suggests is an offensive line giving these players a chance to perform, and while no one outside the locker room knows what’s really going on inside, it’s reasonable to look at the post-scandal statements of support for Incognito and see a team that has rallied together in the face of adversity.

I want to briefly digress and say that on the more important human level, I find this disgusting. If the Dolphins have really rallied around the concept of systematic and dehumanizing bullying at the expense of the victim, it speaks to something very sick in the culture of football. I love this sport and see the good it can do for people, but I’m also not blind to the cult-like mentality that seems to take a greater hold here than in either sports. I hope the latter isn’t what’s inspiring Miami, but if it is…well, that’s just sick.

When we move into the more cold-blooded world of football analysis, whatever is motivating Miami is clearly having a positive effect. The schedule isn’t easy the last three weeks, but it’s home-friendly. They get New England at home this Sunday and the Jets at home in Week 17, with a road trip to Buffalo mixed in.

Winning all three of those games is certainly in the cards. Miami is at a tiebreaker disadvantage with Baltimore, but the Ravens have a tough row to hoe, with road games in Detroit and Cincinnati, and their own home battle with New England. If the Dolphins go 3-0, they’re almost certainly going to get in, and even at 2-1, you’d have to like the odds that the Ravens could lose twice. It’s a position no one thought Miami would be in at the outset of November.

Can The Miami Dolphins Win The AFC East?

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The Miami Dolphins don’t have the pedigree of the New England Patriots. They don’t have the soap opera quality of the New York Jets. But what the Dolphins do have is at least a contender in the watered-down race for the AFC wild-card spots and you have to give Miami at least a puncher’s chance of upsetting New England in the AFC East race itself. With the Patriots on a bye this week at 5-3, Miami, at 4-3, can move into a tie for first. Let’s look at the overall trajectory of the Dolphins’ season—what they’ve done and what’s to come to get a handle on how seriously we should take their shot at a division title.

Let’s begin with Miami’s basic statistical rankings. They are defensive-oriented, ranking third in the NFL in points allowed, while sitting in just 22nd in scoring. Every strength of their team can be tied to the trenches—they rank 11th in running the ball, they’re 3rd at stopping the run and they’re 6th in sacks. They do allow pass yardage in big chunks, sitting just 27th in allowing teams to gain through the air. With that backdrop, let’s now walk through their first seven games…

Week 1: at Houston (10-30)—Playing on the road at one of the AFC’s best teams is a tough way to break in a rookie quarterback like Ryan Tannehill. And he threw three interceptions in the second quarter when the game got out of hand. The pass coverage allowed Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson to hook up pretty easily.

Week 2: vs. Oakland (35-13)—Reggie Bush made his biggest splash of the season, rushing for 172 yards, while the Dolphin defense completely shut down Darren McFadden. Tannehill was much-improved, at 18/30 for 200 yards and no interceptions. The pass defense allowed yardage, as Carson Palmer threw for 373 yards, but he was inefficient, at 24-for-48. And though Miami didn’t get a sack, they registered nine QB hits. This game is essentially the template of the ideal Miami game if you presume current strengths and weaknesses.

Week 3: vs. NY Jets (20-23, OT)—Another dominating display for the running game, with 185 rush yards and another day where the defensive line pressures the passer, at two sacks and seven hits. Mark Sanchez follows a similar pattern for opposing quarterbacks—he gets 306 yards, but at 21/45, it wasn’t exactly crisp. The edges in running game and pass  rush offset  a mediocre pass rush in a game that could have gone other way.

Week 4: at Arizona (21-24, OT)—The second straight overtime loss and this was even worse, as Arizona tied it with 22 seconds left in regulation on a touchdown pass. The defensive pass rush played its best game, getting eight sacks, more than half from linebacker Cameron Wake. Hartline had a huge game at receiver, with 253 yards. While the running game wasn’t very good, the rush defense was better. The problem? Four turnovers, including a pair of interceptions thrown by Tannehill.

Week 5: at Cincinnati (17-13)—No running game on either side, but Tannehill is efficient—17/26 for 223 yards and no interceptions, while Andy Dalton tosses two picks, and that’s the difference in the game.

Week 6: vs. St. Louis (17-14)–You never throw away a win in the NFL, but this one was not impressive. Miami was destroyed on the ground, losing rush yards 162-36 and beaten in the air, 300-156. But again, give Tannehill his due—at 21/29 for 185 yards and no mistakes, he at least did no harm. While counterpart Sam Bradford played well, the Rams couldn’t overcome 12 penalties. Sometimes you just have to let the opponent beat themselves and that worked for the Fish in this game.

Week 7: BYE

Week 8: at New York Jets (30-9)–Miami’s defensive front got the job done, getting after Sanchez for four sacks and seven QB hits. Tannehill missed this game with a knee injury, but Matt Moore kept the pattern of low-risk play going and Miami won big even though they were modestly outrushed and significantly outpassed.

Tannehill’s status for this coming Sunday against Indianapolis is still up in the air, but he’ll be back for Week 10 at the latest and in either case Moore provides all the same assets. I think the real long-term problem for Miami is that the rush game hasn’t had 100 yards as a team since Week 3, and they haven’t outrushed the opponent since Week 4. Unless Tannehill is going to magically morph into Dan Marino when he comes back, the Dolphins are going to need to be winning this battle.

The defense is genuinely championship-caliber. Wake is having a huge year rushing the passer, and the Dolphins are getting a consistent push from defensive tackle Randy Starks. Being able to pressure the quarterback from the interior is invaluable, because it prevents an opposing offense from rolling the pocket away from the rush, as can happen when the pressure is coming exclusively from one edge player. If Miami stops the run, rushes the quarterback and allows fairly low completion percentages, they can live with some bigger plays made in the passing game.

Miami can feel very good when they look at the coming schedule—it’s at Indianapolis this week, then home against Tennessee, at Buffalo and home against Seattle. It’s very realistic to think the Dolphins would win all four of those games and at least three of four. They can be 7-4 or 8-3 by the time Decemer arrives.

December won’t be a lot of fun, as both games against New England await, as does a road trip to San Francisco. But Miami would at least be in positon to make the playoffs and possibly do more. If they do win their next four games, their confidence would be high and it would also mean that Tannehill is really settled in and playing consistently.

The cities of Miami and Boston have an intriguing sports dynamic going right now. In the NFL and NBA, they’re at each other’s throats and each city has one favorite and one challenger. In baseball, the cities rivaled each other for the honor of most dysfunctional team (I may be a Boston fan, but I feel confident in saying I think we still won that one).

I’m not ready to pick Miami to win the AFC East or even to make the playoffs. But if a partisan Dolphin fan feels like they’ve got a shot, I’m not going to be the one to tell them their nuts—so long as they start running the ball with some authority again.