Menu

Miami basketball

Is Miami Sports Set For A Final Four-NBA Parlay?

, , , , ,

It’s a great time to be a basketball fan in the Miami area. If you’re a fan on South Beach, you know coming into the year that the Heat would give you a shot at a title, but LeBron’s team was not just the only basketball excitement—it was the only team in town worth watching in any sport, unless you were taken by the University of Miami’s mediocre 7-5 season in college football. Now, seemingly out of nowhere comes the U’s basketball team. The Hurricanes are flying high, ranked third in the nation, and it’s time to ask the question—could Miami sports nail a big parlay and sweep through the Final Four in April, then take the NBA title again in June?

Let’s start with the Hurricanes, since they’re the lesser known commodity. Here at TheSportsNotebook we talked about the excellent talent level that exists in the program on the morning before the ‘Canes smashed Duke and into the national consciousness. Miami’s got it all—Durand Scott can score from the wing, as can Trey McKinney-Jones. If you watched Miami bury North Carolina on Saturday, I don’t have to tell you how good point guard Shane Larkin is—he’s both a passer and a lights-out shooter from three-point range. And most importantly, Miami is tough in the paint. Reggie Johnson and Kenny Kadji are very tough for most college teams to match up with.

I’ve got no problem with saying that Miami has, for me, emerged as the clear team to beat. If the NCAA Tournament were a best-of-seven, I’d have no hesitation at picking the ‘Canes to win it all, whereas I’d be unsure which contender to slot in at #2. If you take this kind of talent and blanketed with the Duke brand name, no one would question who the best team in the nation was.

But Miami doesn’t have a brand name, and that does have implications beyond just respect. While I’m on their bandwagon, I am concerned that these aren’t players with NCAA Tournament experience. The fact we’ve seen Kentucky win it all with freshman persuades me the ‘Canes can overcome this, but I certainly wouldn’t fault anyone who was skeptical.

The other concern is the ACC—the conference itself might have the brand name, but with North Carolina on a rebuilding year, it’s not a very good league. Ever since Maryland fell from the ranks of national title contenders and into the realm of pretty good bubble teams, the ACC has really not offered much beyond Duke and Carolina, at least for as national contenders. Miami got off to a slow start—a loss to Florida Gulf Coast in November qualifies as slow, and they also lost to Indiana State. That means the ‘Canes current reputation is built upon the league slate. What does it mean if the slate isn’t that good?

We’ll learn a little bit more about Miami this week when they go to Florida State and go to Clemson. Neither team is anything special, but both are good enough to win games at home. We need to see how the Hurricanes handle the road amidst growing national publicity. They also go to Duke on March 2.

Miami is currently a 14-1 shot to win the national title (Michigan and Florida are the favorites at 7-2). I respect the concerns about them—the inexperience and the quality of the ACC—but if I were in Las Vegas tonight, be assured that’s a ticket I’d be snapping up.

Now let’s move to the NBA. You’re quite familiar with LeBron, Wade and Bosh as the Big Three and all three are having vintage seasons. Where the Heat have problems is inside. This isn’t new—the inconsistency from Udonis Haslem and Joel Anthony was an issue last year, so the Heat have shown they can play around it. But it’s worse this time around. The playing time for Haslem and Anthony is dropping, and the Heat are increasingly a perimeter-oriented team. Ray Allen, Shane Battier and Mario Chalmers join LeBron and reserve power forward Rashad Lewis in averaging multiple trey attempts per game and hitting 40 percent.

I give head coach Erik Spoelstra credit—rather than try and jam unproductive post players into the lineup, he simply shifted gears entirely and let the perimeter players who produce get more playing time. Better to play your strength in a way that’s less than ideal, than to give in to your weakness. But the reality is, it’s still a weakness, and New York, Oklahoma City and San Antonio all have quality post players who can exploit it. For that matter, let’s throw Brooklyn, a second-round opponent based on the standings today, into that group as well.

Of course having the best player in the game cures a lot of ills, and the Heat are 34-14, 2 ½ games ahead of New York for the #1 seed in the Eastern Conference. They trail San Antonio and Oklahoma City in the loss column by two games for best overall record. You can look at this one of two ways—on the one hand, the Heat have won the East two straight years as a #2 seed, lost the 2011 Finals with homecourt advantage and won the 2012 title without it. Clearly, it’s not some kind of litmus test.

On the other hand, the overall track record of the NBA playoffs tells us how important this advantage is generally. If not for a timely Derrick Rose injury taking out #1 seed Chicago last year, and Oklahoma City unable to make the one or two extra plays it would have required to get one in South Beach and push the series back to OkC for the final two games, maybe the lack of homecourt would have been costly for the Heat.

I take the positive view with regard to the East—I think Miami wins it regardless of what spot on the bracket they come from, although getting homecourt would be icing on the cake. The Finals is different—it’s going to be hotly contested regardless, but I’d probably lean the direction of whoever has the extra home game.  For the record, the Heat are still the betting favorite to win it all, with odds of 12-5, while the Spurs and Thunder are 5-1.

However you want to slice it though, Miami sports fans are going to have a lot to cheer over the next five months. After last year’s Finals, Heat president Pat Riley asked the crowd “Can we have a party tonight?” Who knows, this spring and summer, maybe the city will have two.

THE HISTORICAL PRECEDENT

The Final Four-NBA Finals parlay has only happened two other times. The most recent was 1989, when Michigan won the national championship. Head coach Bill Frieder took another job before the NCAA Tournament and was told to take his whistle and clipboard and leave town early. Interim coach Steve Fischer led the Wolverines to the national title with an overtime win over Seton Hall in the final, aided considerably by a touch foul called in the closing seconds (a description confirmed by UM guard Rumeal Robinson, on whom the foul was called and then sank the two free throws that won the crown, 80-79).

On the NBA side was the Bad Boy Detroit Pistons of Isiah Thomas, Joe Dumars, Bill Laimbeer & Co. They swept out the Los Angeles Lakers. Magic Johnson pulled a hamstring in Game 2, and Byron Scott also missed the series, but it should be noted that the Pistons were still the team with the best record. It was likely their year to break through after a couple near-misses, even if the injuries made it possible for the sweep.

The other instance was 1972, with the Lakers and UCLA. It’s surprising that this combo didn’t happen more often. But the Lakers usually had teams that came up just short, and by the time Magic arrived and changed all that, the Wooden era was over at UCLA. Still, 1980 was an almost moment—the Lakers won in Magic’s rookie year, and UCLA led the NCAA final 50-45 over Louisville with five minutes to go before the Cardinals went on a run and won the game 59-54.

There’s only two other geographic instances worth nothing. In 2006 you had another Heat championship, while Florida won the NCAA title. But the Gators are much further north and I would their fan base to Orlando. In 1994, it was Arkansas in college and the Houston Rockets in the NBA. Here, I’d link up Arkansas with Dallas, In both cases, I’m sure there were a good number of fans who rooted for both teams, but it’s not the strict geographic tie that happened in 1972, 1989 and perhaps again in 2013.

Miami Basketball Looks To Take The Next Step

, , , , , ,

It’s been about ten years since the University of Miami’s football program was a relevant national power, but Miami basketball is playing well right now and has a chance to make a significant statement on the national stage tonight when they host Duke (7 PM ET, ESPN). The Hurricanes are unbeaten in ACC play and, in spite of them being ranked #24 while the Dookies are #1, a victory here marks Miami as the team to beat in the ACC the rest of the way. Are the ‘Canes up to it, and can this be a legitimate Final Four contender? Let’s take a closer look at Miami basketball.

To begin with this, team is exceptionally well-balanced. There’s no facet of the game they don’t do well in. Frankly, I think the pertinent question is why they didn’t step up more last season when a push to reach the NCAA Tournament came up short. It starts up front, with three big post players. The best of the group is 6’11” senior Kenny Kadji, and not far behind is 6’10” Reggie Johnson. In a world in college basketball where most teams struggle to find one really good post presence, Miami has two, and they bring another credible player off the bench in 6’10” Julian Gamble. If you get these guys playing aggressively, looking for the ball, and hitting the glass, there aren’t many teams in the country that can really match up.

It doesn’t just end with good post presence, Miami is also a team that excels in the backcourt as well. To the contrary, there are no weaknesses here either. Sophomore guard Shane Larkin—the son of Hall of Fame shortstop and ESPN baseball analyst Barry Larkin—is a lights-out three-point shooter and quality passer. Two seniors, Durand Scott and Trey McKinney-Jones each score in double figures, and they both provide some extra rebounding help, crashing from the wings. Scott and McKinney-Jones both go 6’5”, so when you put it all together, this is a big team at each position of play.

All this talent was on hand for Miami last year and they settled for the NIT.  Then they lost an early season game to Florida Gulf Coast. Subsequent losses to Arizona and Indiana State weren’t bad—the Sycamores are good this year and the game with Miami went to overtime—and it certainly seemed like nothing had changed.  It appeared that Miami would be another big tease.

But ACC play has seen them turn the corner. The ‘Canes played great defense and hit the boards in a road win over Georgia Tech, and reserve guard Rion Brown scored 22 points, showing they could get points “off the grid”, so to speak, if their key players had rough shooting nights. Then Miami went to Chapel Hill and beat North Carolina. This time it was good three-point shooting and Kadji really stepped up with an 18 points/9 rebounds effort, including a couple treys. It was McKinney-Jones’ turn to be the leader in a tough 54-47 win over a pretty good Maryland team, as he posted a 12 points/8 rebounds/7 assists line. Then this past weekend, Miami showed they could win an ugly road game—an absolute necessity to prove if you intend to win a conference championship—by edging Boston College 60-59.

The wins over North Carolina and Maryland at least tell us that Miami is ready to elevate above other challengers in the ACC and solidify itself as a solid NCAA Tournament team. That makes for a good year, but I believe they have the talent to do more. The lingering question remains whether they’ll put it together against teams at the highest level, and a big test of that comes tonight when the Blue Devils come to Coral Gables.

VIRGINIA STRUGGLING

If Miami is on the rise, someone has to be on the way down, and while the ACC race is fairly balanced, the team that’s perhaps most disappointing is Virginia. The Cavs are 12-5, and in the current NCAA Tournament projections by Joe Lunardi at ESPN.com, Virginia not only isn’t in the field, they’re not one of the first eight teams to miss. While Lunardi’s word might not be Gospel truth, he does use the same methodology of the committee, his projections are credible and we can at least use them as a basis for where a team stands relative to the rest of college basketball. Given Lunardi’s assessment though, Virginia can not feel good about where it stands.

One of the biggest reasons for Virgina’s struggles is that there’s not enough depth to the Cavalier attack right now. Akil Mitchell provides scoring and rebounding from the forward position and Joe Harris is a quality guard, but apart from this duo, there’s not enough extra help. I would single out point guard Jontel Evans as the one who needs to step up his game, both running the offense and kicking in some point production himself. Virginia has road losses to mediocre teams in Clemson and Wake Forest. There’s time to recover and put themselves in good NCAA position, but Tony Bennett’s team needs to start winning now.

Big East & ACC Tournament Bubble Talk: Miami & South Florida

, , , , , , , ,

The battle on the NCAA bubble is intense in the Big East and ACC, and particularly down in the southern part of Florida. Today, TheSportsNotebook will take a look at the cases of bubble teams in Miami and South Florida, and briefly summarize the rest of the conference.

Miami (16-9, 7-5): I thought Miami would be in better shape right now. Jim Larranaga came down from George Mason to take his crack at coaching in a power conference. He’s got a great tandem on the front line with Kenny Kadji and Reggie Johnson, both of whom stand 6’10”. Both have played well this season, and at times Johnson has stepped up to become truly dominant. Collectively, they average 25 points/13 rebounds a game, and Kadji is able to step out and hit the three-ball. With help, they’d be a good foundation for a true ACC contender.

The problem Larranaga’s had is in his backcourt. Miami’s got very talented guards with junior Durand Scott and senior Malcolm Grant, but both have had tough season shooting the ball. The point production is there (this duo also combines for 25 ppg), but efficiency is now, with Grant struggling at 33 percent from the floor. Even worse, there is consistent three-point shooter in the backcourt. Freshman Shane Larkin, the son of Cincinnati Reds’ Hall of Fame shortstop and ESPN analyst Barry Larkin, has promise here, but while Larkin’s 35 percent from behind the arc is good enough to justify taking the shot, it won’t stretch a defense out. Hence, if Miami wants consistency from behind the arc, they have to get Kadji outside, which in turn takes away from a key team strength.

Miami stepped up with a big win on Super Bowl Sunday when they won in overtime at Duke, but that’s the only notable win they’ve got this year. The schedule is filled with losses to fellow bubble contenders—the ‘Canes lost at Ole Miss, at Purdue, at West Virginia, and at home to Memphis and N.C. State. That’s a collective body of work that gives the selection committee plenty of reason to reject you in a close race, and with ESPN.com’s Joe Lunardi currently projecting Miami as a #12 seed and one of the last four teams to make the field, this is nothing if not a close race.

While I don’t like Miami’s resume I still like their talent, and the win at Duke showed why I believe they can play well in these final four games and in the ACC tournament. The ‘Canes play at Maryland tomorrow, and then have a huge home game with Florida State. Next week they have an even bigger road game at N.C. State—currently one of the last four to miss the field according to Lunardi—and then a home date with lowly Boston College. This isn’t a team I’d want to mess with if I were a #4 or #5 seed in the NCAA Tournament, as Kadji and Johnson present a lot of matchup problems. The question is whether they can find the consistency the rest of the way to get that shot.

Lunardi currently projects Miami as one of five ACC teams to get a bid. Duke and North Carolina are each sitting as #2 seeds, while Florida State—tied for first with the Big Two, albeit   a weaker non-conference resume—is sitting on #4. Virginia is at #8. Then you have Miami and N.C. State squarely on the bubble with the ‘Canes leaning in. But that’s a race that will change with each game both teams play. Maryland has slipped to 15-11 overall and short of winning out and grabbing a couple wins in the ACC Tournament, is not going to the NCAA.

South Florida (17-10, 10-4): When South Florida started poorly in November and December there was no reason to think it would be impacting our thinking in late February. The Bulls lost at home to Old Dominion and Penn State, and dropped road games to Virginia Commonwealth and Auburn, along with a predictable defeat at Kansas. They lost in Big East play to UConn, Marquette and Georgetown. But other than that, they’ve turned it around in conference play and been very consistent, putting together a 10-4 conference record and at 17-10 overall are now back in the picture for the NCAA Tournament. If not for those home losses to ODU and Penn State, South Florida would be a lock.

South Florida is a team oriented toward the frontcourt with five of its top seven players going 6’6” or taller, and the go-to player is 6’10” senior Augustus Gilchrist. He’s averaging an 11/5 each night. Gilchrist has been an impact player in the Big East through his career and is finally getting a chance to prove it in big games in these coming weeks.

Anthony Collins is the freshman at the point and a good shooter, at least inside the three-point line. After Collins, the Bulls are mostly a team of interchangeable parts. Toarlyn Fitzpatrick is more of a rebounder, while Hugh Roberson is a good shooter, but for the most part Stan Heath has some flexibility in how he uses the five players between Collins at the point and Gilchrist in the post.

It’s easy to look at South Florida’s Big East record and think that will be enough to carry them, but they really don’t have much in terms of quality wins. A home win over Seton Hall is the best conference victory on the schedule, while Cleveland State is the best non-conference win. That would have to be the reason Lunardi currently projects him as one of the first four teams to miss the NCAA bracket.

The good news for Heath is that not only is he close enough to be in the margin of error, but the remaining schedule provides plenty of chances to get those quality wins. South Florida visits Syracuse and Louisville in these final two weeks and has home games with fellow bubble teams Cincinnati and West Virginia. If the Bulls can even split those four games and finish 19-12/12-6, you’d have to like their chances going into the Big East tournament. Of course the bad news is they’ll need more than Gilchrist to win two of those games. It’s time for the supporting cast to step up.

Lunardi is currently showing Big East teams Seton Hall and Cincinnati sneaking into the field, while South Florida just misses. I’m not as sold on Seton Hall, while I think the Bearcats are better off than the ESPN bracketologist gives them credit for. Conversely, a projection of UConn at #11 seems optimistic to me given the Huskies poor play since Jim Calhoun was sidelined. West Virginia is sitting on #10, reasonably safe, but one loss puts them back on the bubble. The absolute locks are Notre Dame (#6), Georgetown (#3), Marquette (#3) and Syracuse (#1).