Menu

Matt Kenseth NASCAR Sprint Cup chances

NASCAR Sprint Cup Series: Johnson Looks To Close Out A Title On Sunday

, , , , ,

The NASCAR Sprint Cup Series is at the end of the line as the circuit comes to the Homestead-Miami Speedway for Sunday’s Ford Ecoboost 400 (3 PM ET, ESPN). It’s the final race of the season and it’s going to take a seismic chain of events to keep Jimmie Johnson from winning his sixth championship.

Johnson has opened his lead over Matt Kenseth to a commanding 28 points, as Kenseth has faded over the last couple weeks. Kevin Harvick still has a mathematical chance at 34 points out, but everything is predicated on a bad run by Johnson on Sunday.


With Johnson going for title #6, my first instinct is to compare him to Michael Jordan, who won six rings with the Chicago Bulls. Given that, maybe it’s ironic that MJ’s number 23 is also the magic number for Johnson on Sunday. If he finished 23rd or higher it doesn’t matter what Kenseth does, the championship race is over.

What then are the odds of Johnson having such a poor finish? I went back through all his results since the beginning of the 2008 season, a period that covers 215 races. Johnson finished lower than 23rd forty times in that timeframe. That represents an 18.6% chance that the door opens for Kenseth.

It’s not odds that leave you optimistic if you’re a Kenseth backer (as I am). But it’s not unthinkable either. Johnson’s poor finishes include four straight races this season from August 18-September 7, and it also includes his last two trips to Miami.


Kenseth got the weekend off to a good start when he won the pole position. It’s certainly not something that has a strong correlation to winning, but this is also a race that will be run under a different dynamic than any other in the season. Kenseth himself acknowledged that he pushed hard for the pole so he’d be in position to capitalize if Johnson had any early problems.

The betting odds for Sunday reflect that changed dynamic. Johnson, who normally is at or close to the favorite’s role–usually in the 4-1 to 6-1 range–has dropped all the way to 15-1. Clearly, the smart money is thinking that JJ will drive cautiously, more focused on avoiding a wreck rather than rolling the dice to win. In that same vein, Kenseth is a 7-2 favorite.

NASCAR Sprint Cup Series: Dead Heat In Texas With Three Weeks Left

, , , , , , ,

The NASCAR Sprint Cup Series race for the championship is a dead heat, as Matt Kenseth and Jimmie Johnson are tied at the top with three races to go, as the circuit prepares for Sunday’s AAA Texas 500 at Texas Motor Speedway (3 PM ET, ESPN).

Kenseth and Johnson are now the only realistic contenders to win the Chase For The Cup. In reality, this has been the case for several weeks, but TheSportsNotebook has done its best to find scenarios for other challengers to get in the mix. The only three on the board at this point would be Jeff Gordon, Kevin Harvick and Kyle Busch, who range from 27-36 points off the pace.


What would it take for any of these three to challenge Kenseth-JJ hegemony? “Kenseth and JJ would have to get into a wreck with each other,” said TheSportsNotebook’s NASCAR junkie, my brother Bill. “They would have to finish 35th or worse.” If that happens, Bill said, high finishes by any of the challenging trio would give them a real shot. But it’s important to emphasize that both of the leaders would have to wreck one time, and that’s asking a lot.

Therefore, let’s focus strictly on Kenseth and Johnson with a look at how they have fared in the last seven races (the ones that constitute the postseason), and how they have fared at Texas Motor Speedway in recent years.

Recent Form: Kenseth is known for consistency, but not necessarily winning, but this year has been a departure from the norm, and the seven Chase races fit the pattern. He won the first two, but has also been out of the Top 10 twice, and Johnson has never finished as low as Kenseth’s worst Chase showing, which is 20th.

Johnson has one won Chase race, finished as low as 13th one time, but been in the top six in the other five races. His average finish is 5.4, while the Kenseth average is 6.1. The difference is not huge, but in a battle that’s tied after 33 races, even the slightest edges stand out.


At Texas: There are two races at this venue each year. Back in April, Johnson finished sixth, while Kenseth ended up twelfth. If we go back through 2008, we see that Kenseth has one once (the spring race in 2011), as has Johnson (the late race in 2012).

Kenseth has been very consistent here, only finishing outside the Top 10 twice in eleven races. Johnson has had non-Top 10 finishes three times, but more important is that one of those races was a 38th-place disaster in the late race of 2009–exactly the kind of wipeout Bill said the other contenders need.

The Rest Of The Field: Of course Kenseth and JJ won’t be driving by themselves, and there’s still a lot of money at stake, both in terms of purse and for gamblers at the betting window based strictly on what happens Sunday. Other winners at Texas since 2008 include Greg Biffle, Tony Stewart, Gordon and Kurt Busch. In 2010, Denny Hamlin swept both races and Carl Edwards turned the same trick in 2008.

Betting Odds: Johnson is the 7-2 favorite on Sunday, with Kenseth coming in at 4-1. Kyle Busch at 5-1, and Jeff Gordon and Kasey Kahne, both at 8-1, are priced strong enough to be considered co-favorites.

Of the other recent winners, Stewart is out with a broken leg, while Biffle, Hamlin, Kurt Busch and Edwards are all 20-1 bets.