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Matt Kemp Dodgers

NL All-Star Report: Pittsburgh’s McCutchen Fills CF Void

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By the middle of May the race to be the National League’s best centerfielder looked like kind of like the race for the NBA title during the Michael Jordan era—it was about watching to see who would finish second. That’s how dominant Matt Kemp was for the Los Angeles Dodgers, as he rattled off a .444 on-base percentage and a stunning .719 slugging percentage in a tough hitter’s park, keying his team’s scorching start. Then Kemp went down with a hamstring injury. Then he came back and promptly re-injured the hammy. Now he’s just hoping to be able to play in Kansas City for the July 10 All-Star Game.

You might still choose to vote for Kemp as a reward for both last season, when he should have won the MVP award (and that has nothing to do with steroid allegations surrounding Ryan Braun) and his fast start (that’s what I intend to do), but this particular feature of TheSportsNotebook is about tracking where players are based strictly on the body of work for the 2012 season and by that standard, Kemp’s lack of playing time clearly leaves him short and opens the door for others. But any hope of a real debate on that has been effectively closed off by Pittsburgh’s Andrew McCutchen.

McCutchen has an on-base percentage/slugging percentage stat line of .398/.577. While PNC Park might be friendlier for a hitter than Dodger Stadium, the Pirate lineup takes the phrase “lack of support” and brings it to new levels, especially for a contender. The team is 15th in the NL in runs scored and the presence of McCutchen is the one thing that separates them from San Diego and with Pirate pitching as good as it is, McCutchen’s “get on my back and I’ll carry you” kind of season is what’s enabling his team to win close, low-scoring games, rather than lose them and why he has passed Ben Roethlisberger as the most valuable athlete on the confluence of the Three Rivers.

The injection of the Pirate centerfielder into the MVP race isn’t a major shock, as you could see him coming as a star for the past three seasons. He’s been a full-time player for three years and in 2009 introduced himself with a .365/.471 stat line. The following two seasons saw him jump to 570+ at-bats per year (a leap of 140 from ’09). The on-base percentage held steady in the mid-.360s, and the home runs increased and reached 23 last season. What’s noteworthy is that while his batting average dropped 27 points in 2011, he made up for it by upping his walk totals from 89 to 126, thus showing the kind of balance a star player needs. Right now he’s not needing to walk, with a .340 batting average, although if Pittsburgh doesn’t get him some help one wonders how much longer opposing pitchers will give him anything to hit. Particularly given his 13 home runs, setting him on a pace for a career high. Whatever the rest of the season holds for McCutchen, the record tells us he’s going to produce and he’s going to play a good defensive centerfield. He’s far and away the best centerfielder in the National League based on the season to date and should create a good debate with Kemp once both are back and healthy—who knows, perhaps the two stars will even go head-to-head in the National League Division Series.

Colorado’s Dexter Fowler isn’t the choice for the top spot, but he deserves mention and quite possibly a place in Kansas City as an NL backup, pending how the rest of the rosters shake out. The Rockie centerfielder has a .374/.518 line making him clearly the best of the Kemp/McCutchen challengers. Let’s also give a nod to Atlanta’s Michael Bourn, with his.356 OBP setting the table, a .440 slugging that’s pretty good for a leadoff guy and an excellent defensive season. Both are close enough to the leaders to make a run at this spot when TheSportsNotebook revisits the topic in September.

Moving down the ladder to centerfielders who are good, but nowhere in shouting distance of the league’s best, are Miami’s Emilio Bonifacio and St. Louis’ Jon Jay. Both are geared more strictly to getting on base without much power, but they each do a solid job in creating action on the base paths. Health is a factor here—Jay just got off the disabled list after a separated shoulder, and Bonifacio just went on after a hand injury that will keep him out to mid-July.

Gerardo Parra and Angel Pagan, in Arizona and San Francisco respectively, aren’t tearing it up, but both have OBPs in .340 range. Parra supplements that with respectable power, having popped six home runs and slugging .437. Pagan plays good defense, an invaluable asset on a team geared more to run prevention than production. And a shout-out also to New York’s Kirk Nieuwenhuis. He’s now playing left field, but has gotten his share of time in centerfield along the way has compiled a .339 OBP. The Mets are currently playing Andres Torres in center, hoping the veteran can stay healthy and build on his own .333 OBP.

Now let’s move to the three big disappointments. Milwaukee’s Nyjer Morgan leads up this group, as he’s doing nothing with the bat and is not notable defensively. For as many injuries as the Brewers have had, it’s the failings of players like Morgan and second baseman Rickie Weeks hurt even more, as they were supposed to be the 1-2 punch at the top of the order. Instead the only punch they’ve delivered is one to the collective gut of Brewer fans. Washington’s Rick Ankiel and Philadelphia’s Shane Victorinio are also having lousy years with the bat, something that’s more surprising in the case of Victorinio, but just as disappointing in either case. Unlike Morgan though, both Ankiel and Victorino excel in the field at a critical defensive spot.

Jordan Schafer for Houston and Cameron Maybin in San Diego fall into the area I did when I went to college in my freshman year. Bear with me on this story. I hadn’t worked out all summer and when I did my bench-press, I forget the weight amount, but it was something awful. The strength coach just said to write “improvement needed” on my card. A nice way of saying there was still time, but a lot of work was ahead. I’ll extend the same niceties to Schafer and Maybin. And I suppose we could say the same for Chicago’s Tony Campana, but in the case the improvement is going to have to happen by shipping him out of town and getting a new player in there.

Early National League All-Star Ballot

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Editor’s All-Star Introduction: The All-Star ballots have appeared at major league stadiums across the country, and TheSportsNotebook is ready to weigh in with the first of what will be three installments of tracking the All-Star race over the course of the season. The second update will come at the break itself and the third will come at the end of the season—why baseball, alone among major sports, completely ignores a complete All-Star vote at the end of the season, is beyond me.

Now a few notes about the way TheSportsNotebook sets up its ballot. It doesn’t mimic the one given out at MLB stadiums. I select a complete team—five starting two pitchers, two setup men and a closer. When outfielders are chosen, at least one has to be a legitimate centerfielder. Furthermore, the same criteria that is used for MVP selection—assessing a player’s value to his team, not just raw stats—are given the same consideration in this process, which I view as the first step in narrowing everything down to an MVP. Finally, what you see here is based strictly on production compiled to date. It’s not necessarily who I’d vote for to be in Kansas City in mid-July—I want more than six good weeks out of someone before I choose to watch them in the All-Star game. But, as mentioned at the top, I view this ballot as the first of a three-part show in choosing a season-ending All-Star team & MVP.

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The SportsNotebook’s choices for the National League. Click here for the American League ballot.  

C: A.J. Ellis (LA Dodgers): Ellis’ batting average and slugging percentage are behind Philadelphia’s Carlos Ruiz, both of whom are very good in each category. But Ellis’ plate discipline—21 walks already, compared to Ruiz’s 7, give the Dodger catcher a stunning .454 on-base percentage and the contrast between hitting in Dodger Stadium and hitting in Citizen’s Bank Park is enormous.

1B: Bryan LaHair (ChiCubs): Another young player joins the list along with Ellis. LaHair’s hitting .356 with nine home runs. Joey Votto, a more predictable choice has started to close fast as he heats up for Cincinnati and I would imagine will take over this spot in the immediate future.

2B: Omar Infante (Miami): I was set to go with Houston’s Jose Altuve or maybe even the Mets’ Daniel Murphy here because even though Infante’s power is through the roof with a .589 slugging percentage, his .331 OBP is lower than I want from an All-Star. But his showing in the defensive metrics is as dazzling as the power, where he’s got the best range of any NL second baseman and up the middle that counts for a lot.

3B: David Wright (NY Mets): Wright is hitting .389. No other NL third baseman is over .300. Wright has an OBP of .489. No one else is within 100 points. Wright is slugging .593. Only St. Louis’ David Freese is even at .500. Oh, and New York’s Citi Field is a lousy hitter’s park. The question isn’t whether Wright is the pick here, it’s where he fits into early MVP conversation.

SS: Rafael Furcal (St. Louis): I’m really not trying to just pick the guy with the best OPS at each spot (the combined total of on-base percentage and slugging percentage). And I’d have liked to have chosen someone with better defensive range at this spot, namely Chicago’s Starlin Castro. But Furcal’s .432 on-base percentage blows the competition away and he’s at least adequate defensively.

OF: Matt Kemp (LA Dodgers): Even if he did hit the DL yesterday with a pulled hamstring, Kemp still has a .446 OBP, 12 home runs and has done it in Dodger Stadium. He’s the Josh Hamilton of the National League. We just don’t waste time explaining this pick.

OF: Ryan Braun (Milwaukee): He’s answered the critics and hit 10 home runs this year, showing that maybe his power really didn’t come from steroids. He’s still hitting for average too, at .304. And this without Prince Fielder in the lineup and the rest of the everyday players in Milwaukee dropping like flies with injuries.

OF: Carlos Beltran (St. Louis): Once again, I feel guilty about just taking the top OPS players right off the board, but the National League is just lacking in quality depth at each position. And with Beltran sitting on a .403 on-base percentage and a .648 slugging, I’m not leaving him off just so I can feel more sophisticated about the selection process.

STARTING ROTATION
Cole Hamels (Philadelphia)
Wandy Rodriguez (Houston)
Johnny Cueto (Cincinnati)
Anibal Sanchez (Miami)
Matt Cain (San Francisco)

In the American League I had a cutoff of 50 innings as the arbitrary minimum workload. 12 AL pitchers had that figure, whereas a similar cutoff point in the NL was 47. Wandy Rodriguez is having a stunning year with a 1.99 ERA in a hitter’s park, although for the honor of best pitcher I’d choose Hamels. His ERA’s only a little bit higher at 2.28, his park is no friendlier to pitchers and even though there’s a big difference in public perception between the teams, the Phillie offense is lousy and  they’re only competitive right now because of arms like Hamels. And while I’m sure sabermetricians will go ballistic at what I’m about to say, I still think wins count for something and Hamels is 5-1, while Wandy is 3-3. I would expect Roy Halladay to crack this group soon as well, although I am rigid about wanting a sub-3.00 ERA and Halladay is 3.20. Clayton Kershaw’s fans might have the loudest gripe, with his 2.22 ERA. But Sanchez and Cain aren’t far behind at 2.28 apiece and neither has Dodger Stadium to work in. Cueto is the one I expect to vault to the top before it’s over, with his 4-0 record and 1.12 ERA. But he’s right at the innings cutoff point, so I just want to see the workload pick up a bit before handing him the Cy Young.

BULLPEN
Setup: Kenley Jansen (LA Dodgers), Josh Lindblom (LA Dodgers)
Closer:  Brett Myers (Houston)
I didn’t like any of the choices in the National League setup area. Both Jansen and Lindblom are having good years for Don Mattingly in LA and their 19 innings apiece are on the high end for innings at this time of year. But there wasn’t even one shutdown pitcher with an ERA that knocks your socks off. The Dodger duo is in the 2.20s and if I were a fan of the team I’m certainly not complaining. As one looking for excellence in an All-Star ballot I am, but Jansen and Lindblom back in. For the closer’s spot, Myers nips Jonathan Papelbon. The Phillie closer’s 10-for-10 on save opps is the best percentage-wise, but Myers is 9-for-10 and Papelbon has a loss, while Myers does not. This is enough for the Houston closer’s 1.42 ERA—nearly a full run better than Papelbon’s—to swing the difference. Save leader Craig Kimbrel is only one ahead of Papelbon and has a blown save, plus a 2.77 ERA. A good year to be sure, but not yet All-Star level. And since I trashed the NL’s setup men, let’s also point out that the closer class is much stronger than what’s available in the American League.

Early MVP Vote: David Wright (NY Mets): I know Kemp is all the rage and I completely get why. But look at how many Dodger players are littered in this discussion as opposed to the number of Mets, and then consider that Wright is lifting New York to a surprising season. Both players are in pitcher’s parks for their home games, so I see them as head-and-shoulders above the rest of the class, but Wright has to get the edge. Besides, think how aggravated Yankee fans would be if a Met won the MVP and the Yanks missed the playoffs at season’s end. That has to count for a lot.