The first two spots in the Final Four get claimed today, with Florida-Louisville and Syracuse-Ohio State set to go. Note that the winners of these games go to opposite national semifinals in New Orleans next Saturday and that all remaining NCAA games are televised by CBS. TheSportsNotebook previews both of today’s games…
WEST REGION (Phoenix, 4:30 PM ET): Louisville-Florida
This one’s going to be all about pace. If Louisville can turn this into kind of ugly game, the Cardinals will be in good shape to win. They’re on a great run in this tournament, but they’ve gotten matchups that have worked to their style. Neither New Mexico in the second round, or Michigan State on Thursday night, were teams that would really drive the action. On the flip side, the fact Louisville was not only able to beat Michigan State playing ugly, but win decisively, tells us just how well the Cards are executing in their natural style of play, and who imperative it will be for the Gators to push the pace.
Defense on the perimeter is going to be everything for Louisville, because Florida has three-point shooters that can light it up in a hurry. Kenny Boynton, Ervin Walker and center Erik Murphy can all drain it from behind the arc. In a tournament were perimeter-oriented teams like Duke, Missouri and Michigan went out early, Florida keeps rolling along. But it’s also going to be important for these Florida guards to defend and create problems for Louisville point guard Peyton Siva. If they can fluster Siva and create some turnovers, that’s the surest way to open up the floor and the Gators can get their open three-point looks on the break.
At the start of the tournament I said the West Regional would be the one that would be gutted. It’s up in the air as to whether I’ve been right or not. On the one hand, you do have a 4 vs. 7 matchup in the regional final. On the flip side, three of the top four advanced into the Sweet 16. And I did give a bottom line that a team seeded 5th or worse would win this bracket. I’m sticking with this and taking Florida.
TheSportsNotebook has certainly not forgotten the obvious storyline in this game, which is Rick Pitino going against Billy Donovan on the 25th anniversary of when they were a coach-player tandem on Providence’s Final Four team. That 1987 NCAA Tournament was a good one top to bottom and start to finish, and it’s covered in detail in Memories of March Madness. Let me make my Shameless Saturday Plug in asking you to check it out for just $2.99. Not just 1987, but the best of the modern NCAA Tournament, from 1976 forward is included.
EAST REGION (Boston, 7:05 PM ET): Syracuse-Ohio State
A region that both TheSportsNotebook, and others, thought was soft, has a chalk finish as the top two seeds collide in the Boston Garden. Syracuse’s zone played very well on Thursday night against Wisconsin. Yes, I know the Badgers hit 14 treys, but the Orange’s disruption of any interior passing made sure the three was all Wisconsin could hit. If Jim Boeheim’s team messes up Ohio State’s rhythm like that, he’ll be on his way to New Orleans –a place he joined Pitino and Donovan at for the 1987 Final Four, as well as winning the 2003 national title. That ’03 Syracuse team is recounted in Memories of March Madness. Wait, I used up my Shameless Plug quota for this article. Sorry.
Disrupting Ohio State’s going to be a lot easier said than done though, because the Buckeye forwards, Jared Sullinger and DeShaun Thomas should be much more comfortable and athletic handling the ball in traffic. I’m not suggesting they’ll go off for the big games both had against Cincinnati on Thursday night and Gonzaga last weekend. But I expect to see crisper passing from Ohio State than I did from Wisconsin, with the opportunity to break the zone down And this is the game where the absence of Fab Melo comes to roost. In a lot of ways Syracuse has been fortunate. Kansas State’s Jamar Samuels could have capitalized on the absence of Melo and he was suspended a couple hours before game time for taking a couple hundred bucks from an AAU coach he knew (Oh, the horror of it all). Vanderbilt’s Festus Ezeli and Jeffrey Taylor could have made hay, but Wisconsin took them out. The Badgers weren’t a team that was going to go inside in any event. But Ohio State well, and whether it’s points, rebounds or just letting the offense run through them, I see Sullinger and Thomas continuing their strong play and leading Ohio State to the Final Four.
The second round closes out today, with the final eight spots in the Sweet 16 filled. TheSportsNotebook has a look at the games, in the order they’ll appear on television today…
N.C. State-Georgetown (12:15 PM ET, CBS): I’ve been going back-and-forth on this game since the bracket was announced. At first, I had Georgetown advancing to the Sweet 16. When I was podcasting at Prime Sports Network with Greg DePalma on Saturday morning, I had a change of heart, due to disappointment with the way the Hoya frontline played against Belmont and how well N.C. State played. Now I’m reverting back to my original Georgetown pick. Mitt Romney is the only person in America who can identify with the decision-making process I’m undergoing here. Basically , I’ve chosen not to overreact to Friday’s games. While N.C. State has excellent balance and athleticism throughout the lineup, Georgetown’s Hollis Thompson and Otto Clark key up a physical interior that I think spells the difference here. The one caveat for the Pack? Shut down Jason Clark at the perimeter, force turnovers and it’s a different game. Either way, it’s a great matchup to kickoff Sunday.
St. Louis-Michigan State (2:45 PM ET, CBS): I just don’t see an upset happening here. St. Louis needs to win by making the game ugly, as they did against a more talented Memphis team on Friday. The problem is that Michigan State has no problem getting down and getting dirty and they won’t be thrown out of sorts, if this becomes an unpleasant-to-watch, grind-it-out affair. The Billikens have no one who can match up with Draymond Green down low. Any team coached by Rick Majerus can be competitive in a one-game shot, but this would be a monster upset if St. Loo actually wins.
Creighton-North Carolina (5:15 PM ET, CBS): The health of John Henson’s wrist is the biggest subplot in this NCAA Tournament so far. Henson, a scorer and rebounder down low, and arguably North Carolina’s best player, has been listed as questionable—which from past experience I usually take to mean probable. But he didn’t play against Vermont, although here again we can just infer that Roy Williams counted on beating the Catamounts without him. I was not impressed with UNC’s rebounding intensity on Friday and whether Henson plays or not, Tyler Zeller and Harrison Barnes need to bring it later this afternoon. If Henson doesn’t play, an upset is definitely lurking. Creighton beat Alabama in spite of a so-so game from star player Doug McDermott and better-than-average game from the Tide. If Carolina is short-handed, less than intense—or ideally, both—the Bluejays can win this game.
Norfolk State-Florida (6:10 PM ET, TNT): Kyle O’Quinn electrified the country on Friday when his 26 points/14 rebounds led the way for Norfolk’s upset of Missouri. O’Quinn can have another good game here today, as Florida is not a physical team in the pain. The Gators have big players—Patrik Murphy most notably—but the bigs are most comfortable shooting the three-ball. Florida in general airs out a lot of threes. Their backcourt of Kenny Boynton and Ervin Walker is extremely good and the reason I think they’ll survive, but we already saw what happened with Duke—another three-point dependent team, the moment the shots stopped falling. If Florida is hitting, this game will be over by halftime. If they’re not, it leaves the door open for O’Quinn to do it again.
Ohio-South Florida (7:10 PM ET, TBS): If you want a team that wins ugly, no one does it like South Florida. I think this is a tougher game for Ohio than their more-heralded first-round upset of Michigan was, simply because the Wolverines were more a spot-and-shoot kind of offense, while South Florida will get physical. The only caveat that’s there is that I wonder if the Bulls will have a little letdown after beating Cal on Wednesday and Temple on Friday, on top of several big wins in the Big East down the stretch. If they respect Ohio, still have the energy and bring it, they’ll win. But South Florida is not talented enough to win even this game without bringing the focus. For the record, I’m taking them to continue their late season surge.
Lehigh-Xavier (7:45 PM ET, Tru): Xavier is not a better team than the Duke squad that Leigh stunned on Friday night, as the records clearly indicate. But Xavier has more talent, and they can do what Duke couldn’t and that’s punish Lehigh in the paint. Note I say the Musketeers could do that. Center Kenny Frease is a great talent, and if he plays well, Xavier will dominate. If Frease shows his tendency to disappear, then it becomes a battle of the backcourts. I’d still pick Xavier, but it becomes a heckuva lot closer. And a battle between Tu Holloway and C.J. McCollum could be one of the great one-on-one battles of the tournament. If it comes down to that, the other eight players should just clear out and let us watch the two star guards go at each other.
Purdue-Kansas (8:40 PM ET, TNT): Matt Painter has done a nice job at Purdue in a rebuilding year, but there should be no illusions about their upset chances here. Purdue’s win over St. Mary’s was a case of seeing which team could play down to the moment faster and St. Mary’s “won” that race. The Boilemakers can’t guard Thomas Robinson in the post and Tyshawn Taylor follows Robinson as the second-best player on the floor. I suppose of Robbie Hummel really found his outside stroke and knocked down 25 and then went to the glass for 15 rebounds, we might have something brewing, but you can come up with a scenario like that for any game on the board the rest of the way. It’ s nothing I can actually see happening.
Cincinnati-Florida State (9:40 PM ET, TBS): A good game to end with, because Bearcats-Seminoles is one of the better games of the day. Come to think of it, it wouldn’t be a bad bowl matchup in football if Cincy quarterback Zach Collaros is healthy. Can we have a late-late game on the gridiron? I picked both these teams to lose in upsets on Friday and though both of them came close to the edge, they survived. FSU has the superior post talent, with Bernard James being the focal point and Xavier Gibson being important in a secondary role. Cincinnati has the better backcourt, with three guards, and then mixes in a solid forward in Yancy Gates. I lean Cincy because I’m still not ready to think that Florida State can maintain their focus out of the ACC Tournament, but the leaning is a lot less strong than on Friday, because even though the ‘Noles didn’t play well, they should tremendous mental fortitude the last ten minutes in turning back St. Bonaventure.
The most intense four-day run in sports continues, as NCAA Tournament Boot Camp moves into the second day, with 16 more games that will close out the first round. TheSportsNotebook takes a look at all 16, in the order they’ll appear on your television…
Texas-Cincinnati (12:15 PM ET, CBS): Texas’ junior guard is J’Covan Brown is a great talent, who’s averaged 20 ppg in the tough Big 12 and I believe is even more valuable to his team than stalwarts like Kansas’ Thomas Robinson are to theirs. Brown has led the way for a group of underclassmen who’ve developed well as the season has gone along. Cincinnati also finished the season on a strong note, and has a nice backcourt trio of playmaker Cashmere Wright, Sean Kilpatrick and Dion Dixon. The former two players can shoot the trey reasonably well, while Dixon takes people off the dribble. And on St. Patrick’s Day weekend, good luck should fall on a kid with a name like Sean Kilpatrick.
But in spite of all this, I’m picking Texas. Rick Barnes has done a good job fitting the younger players into roles alongside Brown, he’s a more tournament-seasoned coach than Mick Cronin (my gosh, did I just pick against a second Irish guy on St. Paddy’s Day weekend?!!?). When it comes to momentum I feel like Texas is genuinely peaking and coming together, whereas Cincy just got hot in its run to the Big East tournament final. Hence, the call for the Longhorns. The thing that upsets the applecart in all this is if Cincy forward Yancy Gates goes off for a 20/15 game in points and rebounds, instead of the 12/9 which is around his average.
N.C. State-San Diego State (12:40 PM ET, Tru): I still haven’t figured out how San Diego State merited a #6 seed. They’ve got a good backcourt, with Jamaal Franklin being one of the Mountain West’s best players, and Chase Tapley able to both run the offense and score. In NCAA play, that alone makes you a threat. But it will have to be that alone, because the Wolfpack outman the Aztecs everywhere else. All five N.C. State starters score in double figures, and they all run 6’5” or taller. Its matchup problems on the wings for San Diego State, and no one can stop the Pack’s C.J. Leslie from scoring and rebounding in the paint. N.C. State brings this one home reasonably comfortably.
Creighton-Alabama (1:40 PM ET, TBS): This is the best game of the early segment, and the one that gets primary viewing at the Flaherty household. Alabama has a good power forward in JaMychal Green, but Creighton has an extraordinary basketball player in Doug McDermott, who averages 20 ppg, hits the boards, distributes and scores from anywhere on the floor. ‘Bama has no answer for him, and Creighton is also well-balanced, with Antoine Young at the point and Gregory Echenique in the post. The only thing that gives one pause? Creighton’s Missouri Valley Conference took a hit last night when Wichita State went down, so who knows how those stat lines will translate into a game against an SEC foe. But this isn’t football, so I’m taking the Bluejays to get the win.
Virginia-Florida (2:10 PM ET, TNT): The single best player on the floor is Virginia’s Mike Scott, a power forward extraordinaire, and that always deserves respect in a one-game shot. But Florida is much deeper, much more balanced and of the six best players on the floor, Florida’s got five. Kenny Boynton scores from the two-guard spot, Ervin Walker runs the office. Erik Murphy is a center who can step out and hit the three, and watch for 6’3” Bradley Beal, a scrappy player who runs down rebounds. If Virginia is going to win as a #10 seed then Scott needs some help from the perimeter where Joe Harris, Sammy Zeglinski and Jontel Evans need to control tempo and play well enough that Scott gets some one-on-one chances in the blocks.
St. Bonaventure-Florida State (2:45 PM ET, CBS): Yesterday in this time slot both Wisconsin and Marquette were in action. Today it’s Florida and Florida State. Is this by design or coincidence, because I’m sure it can annoy local fans, especially when a lot of them are at work. Florida State has national championship talent. They have an outside scorer in Michael Snaer, a playmaker in Luke Loucks, a big man who controls the inside in Bernard James, and no less than four other players who can come up big if you sleep on them. FSU went 4-1 this year in games against North Carolina and Duke. If it’s about talent, Florida State wins this one going away. But if it’s about focus, we’ve got issues. There’s a reason FSU is a three-seed and finished third in the ACC in spite of those big wins. They can let games slip away. If they lose focus here, Bonnie big man Andrew Nicholson, the Atlantic 10’s best player, is ready to make them pay, and I’m calling for that happen. St. Bonaventure in a big upset.
Belmont-Georgetown (3:10 PM ET, Tru): Belmont’s a little bit of a trendy upset pick as a #14 seed, and you can understand why. It was in 2008 that they took Duke to the wire in the first round. It was just this year they did the same with Duke in the regular season. Georgetown hasn’t had a good NCAA showing since the Final Four run of 2007, including an embarrassing loss to Ohio in 2010 after this writer picked them to win the whole thing. But Belmont is not as deep as they’ve been in years past, relying mostly on three guards. Georgetown is much more physical up front and Jason Clark does a good job in the backcourt, so I think the Hoyas turn this upset bid back.
Vermont-North Carolina (4:10 PM ET, TBS): I don’t think Vermont has a chance in this game any more than anyone else, but readers don’t need a sports website to tell them North Carolina should win. Instead, let’s find something Vermont has going for them if the miracle is to happen. That something is three-point shooting. The Catamounts have three players—Four McGlynn, Matt Glass and Luke Apel who all hit 40 percent from behind the arc. The latter two stand 6’8” and 6’7” so it’s going to be tough to stop them with guards. If they bring Carolina’s big men away from the basket, it obviously negates the advantage the Tar Heels enjoy on everyone in the tournament. And Four McGlynn is a great name, it sounds like it should be a pub in Dublin. I better stop here before I talk myself into thinking this scenario has more than 1 percent chance of success.
Norfolk State-Missouri (4:40 PM ET, TNT): I really can’t even find a credible scenario here. Kyle O’Quinn is a good post player for Norfolk State with a 16/10 average and given Mizzou’s undersized lineup, I can see O’Quinn having a nice game on the weekend that belongs to the Irish. But Missouri’s speed and depth is too much and unless an underdog can really hit the three or a favorite is obviously vulnerable, there’s no reason to look for an upset. And there’s none here.
St. Louis-Memphis (6:50 PM ET, TBS): Memphis is the team playing better basketball and they have two forwards, Will Barton and Tarik Black who are going to be almost impossible for St. Louis to match up with. Lest you think the Tigers lack backcourt play, Chris Crawford runs the show effectively. Before advancing them on to a date with Michigan State though, let’s give credit to Billikens’ coach Rick Majerus, who’s had four days to try and figure out a way to match up with a team with an edge—although not a prohibitive one in talent. St. Louis can also hit the three, including big man Cody Ellis. Brian Conklin is a threat for a big game at any time from the wings. If St. Louis gets some effective rebounding from Dwayne Evans, they can steal this win. I’m picking Memphis, but like any 8-9 game, it’s far from a sure thing.
Lehigh-Duke (7:15 PM ET): My podcasting partner Greg DePalma over at Prime Sports Network picked the upset in this spot. I didn’t, but the more I look at it, the more I can see where the idea comes from. Duke’s reliance on the three-ball makes them almost a midmajor team in style of play and a cold night makes it interesting against anyone. And if it becomes a three-point shooting contest, Lehigh’s got some gunners of their own, led by C.J. McCollum. If the floor opens up and Gabe Knutson can do to work down low and get Mason Plumlee in foul trouble, an upset is definitely brewing. Now the downside of this is that if Duke hits their threes, they’ll win by forty. But any time hot shooting from long range is the core of your success, you are vulnerable, and that’s what Duke is. One note—if you’re a bettor and want to bet this game individually, forget the pointspread. Go for broke and take Lehigh on the moneyline to win outright, based on the theory if that Duke is hot, they’ll cover any number Vegas puts up on the board, but if they’re cold a magical night and big moneyline payoff is in the works.
Ohio-Michigan (7:20 PM ET, TNT): Michigan’s a vulnerable favorite too because of the lack of an inside game. Ohio has the personnel to exploit it in forwards Reggie Kelly and Ivo Baltic and the Bobcats are the team that upended Georgetown in 2010 and my bracket along with it. Be assured I won’t forget any time soon. From a personnel standpoint, the matchup is ripe for an upset. The issue I have is that the MAC was poor this year, while the Big Ten was outstanding, so our understanding of the personnel is necessarily skewed by that. I’m playing the conference card in this one and sticking with the favorite.
Purdue-St. Mary’s (7:27 PM ET, TNT): A great 7-10 game with St. Mary’s in the favorite’s role against another Big Ten team looking to make a conference statement. Purdue’s got the conference card, as well as the best player on the floor card in Robbie Hummel. But St. Mary’s has played good basketball coming down the stretch, winning the WCC over Gonzaga and BYU, then also winning the conference tournament. I would overlook that in this game, but I can’t overlook the work of point guard Matthew Dellavedova, the kind of floor leader and scorer who can win an NCAA Tournament game for you. It’s a nailbiter, but Dellavedova is the difference in the last couple possessions.
Michigan State-Long Island (9:20 PM ET, TBS): The hopes for a historic #16 seed win rest on the shoulders of Blackbirds’ forward Julian Boyd. He’s one of two good scorers at the forward spot, including Jamal Olaswere, and the one thing Boyd has is the ability to shoot the three. The guards won’t be able to deny him his shot, since Boyd is 6’7”. Long Island’s only hope is to force Tom Izzo into a situation where he has to either bring Draymond Green out to the perimeter to stop a big three-point shooter, or just leave his top rebounder down low and hope for the best on the treys. It’s a thin reed for Long Island to hold on to, but when you’re a #16 seed you grab at whatever you can.
Xavier-Notre Dame (9:45 PM ET, CBS): Xavier is the 10-seed and I’ve griped pretty much non-stop about them being in the NCAA Tournament. That said, the Musketeers are the more talented team. While Notre Dame’s backcourt of Jerian Grant and Eric Atkins is good, Xavier’s guards of Tu Holloway and Mark Lyons can match up with anyone in the country. While Notre Dame has a nice power forward in Jack Cooley, Xavier has a game-changing center in Kenny Frease. Saying this leaves it pretty obvious I’m picking Xavier to win this holy war of Jesuit schools that are pretty close to each other, with Xavier’s home town of Cincinnati providing the baseball rooting preferences for a lot of Indiana. The one thing I am concerned about is Frease disappearing from the flow of play. It’s been known to happen and the next time it does will be the last.
South Florida-Temple (9:50 PM ET, TNT): It’s another Big East-Atlantic 10 battle. This time I’m taking the Big East. While Temple has the flash, with its backcourt of Ramone Moore and Khalif Wyatt, who can take you off the dribble and Juan Fernandez who buries treys, South Florida has the substance. There are no double-digit scorers, but they lock you down on the defensive end, as Big East teams found it in the last six weeks of the regular season, and as Cal found it in the play-in game South Florida never should have been relegated to. Temple deserved a better matchup than this after winning the A-10 and earning a #5 seed, and they won’t survive the South Florida D tonight.
Detroit-Kansas (9:57 PM ET, Tru): Mr. DePalma over at Prime Sports Network is calling another 15-seed upset here—and also has the Titans going to the final eight. When he announced this on our show on Wednesday night I debated the merits of an intervention. But in fairness, Detroit’s got talent, they can run the floor very well and Ray McCallum is a do-everything point guard that can electrify the NCAA Tournament. They frankly deserved better than a 15-seed. I would have had them up at #13, paired them up with Michigan and then we might have an upset special. But not here. Detroit can’t shoot threes and they have no one who can stop Thomas Robinson in the paint.
You’ve undoubtedly already heard or read a lot of pontificating about what the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee did right and wrong in yesterday’s bracket announcement. I’ve got my opinions too of course–I found Xavier getting into the field to be annoying, Iona making it to be stunning, Drexel missing to be disappointing and Pac-12 champ Washington missing to be positively infuriating. I found South Florida being relegated to a play-in game to be ridiculous, and I’m personally pumped to watch Pat Knight and Lamar get their chance in the First Four against Vermont.
But while the stuff about who should’ve been a #1 or #2 seed is interesting enough (I had Kansas and Missouri both on the top line in my own projected bracket), but it really doesn’t matter. Those teams all get their chance to play their way to New Orleans and the 2012 Final Four. On Tuesday and Wednesday, TheSportsNotebook will do its own final bracket selections, along with previewing the “First Four” games that go from Dayton on those nights. Today let’s have some fun and put a different spin on the bracket. Instead of playing bracketologist or handicapper, let’s play travel agent. There’s eight cities hosting first and second-round games this weekend. Which ones would offer the most entertainment? TheSportsNotebook breaks them down, looking at the quality of the matchups–both straight basketball and storyline–along with the potential crowd atmosphere. We’ll go through all eight and then determine what the best travel schedule would be for a college hoops junkie from Thursday thru Sunday.
GREENSBORO Duke-Lehigh, Notre Dame-Xavier North Carolina-Lamar/Vermont, Creighton-Alabama Comments: Those that have read Memories of March Madness, the short easy-to-read recap of the modern NCAA Tournament written by yours truly, have learned about Black Saturday in 1979. When North Carolina and Duke fell in their same state (Raleigh in this case) and opened the door for Penn to be the last Ivy League team to reach the Final Four. Could it happen here? I don’t know about that, but the atmosphere will be raucous, and when UNC and Duke aren’t on the floor, you’ve got good games with Creighton-Alabama and Notre Dame-Xavier. As much as I’ve ripped on Xavier for their disappointing play since some temporary December suspensions threw off their chemistry, they can certainly beat the Irish and they’ve got the guards to match up with Duke in the backcourt. Creighton has the best player you’ve never seen in Doug McDermott. So you get either a good game or a crazy local crowd. Greensboro would be a fun spot to be.
PITTSBURGH Ohio State-Loyola MD, Gonzaga-West Virginia Syracuse-UNC Asheville, Kansas State-Southern Miss Comments: The top pod is perfect, with Buckeye fans and Moutaineer rooters ready to converge on Pittsburgh, and Gonzaga-WVA being a good game in the first round. I suppose you can’t be too unhappy about having one of the nation’s best teams in your group, but I’ve always felt that the second weekend is when you want to see the top teams–unless you think a live upset might be in the works. I doubt Kansas State can take down the Orange and Southern Miss belongs in the First Four with the way they fell apart down the stretch.
COLUMBUS Michigan State-Long Island, Memphis-St. Louis San Diego State-N.C. State, Georgetown-Belmont Comments: This isn’t bad, but I feel like it could have been better. The top pod is good, with Michigan State ready to bring its fans, and Memphis should be ready to counter, with it being a pretty reasonable drive north to Columbus. I wonder if the kids from D.C. will be motivated to drive up and support Georgetown. It’s a doable drive, but it is a good 8-9 hour haul, and I wonder if the matchups Georgetown has are going to be enough to motivate. I guess I would prefer that a different pod might have been substituted for the bottom group. You can’t put Ohio State’s group here, which given West Virginia’s presence in it too, would have been ideal, but you can take a look at the Michigan part of the Nashville pod further down. If nothing else, you put enough Ohio State and Michigan fans in the same building for two days and something interesting’s bound to happen. Either they have outbreaks of conference pride and root for each other, then hate themselves in the morning. Or they start fights, wake up in jail cells in the morning, but feel good about themselves.
LOUISVILLE Kentucky vs. Miss Valley State/Western Kentucky, Iowa St vs. UConn Murray State vs. Colorado State, Marquette vs. BYU/Iona Comments: I get a negative vibe about this one, mainly because you’ll have to deal with a huge contingent of obnoxious Kentucky fans in games where they are not likely to be tested, with due apologies to Iowa State or UConn. So that’s two games out of six that are going to be non-competitive. A huge positive for this venue is that you might be witness to the last game of UConn legend Jim Calhoun, depending on how his health shapes up over the summer. The fun games here would be with nearby Murray State probably bringing a nice group of fans. They’ve got a tough draw against a hot Colorado State team and a second-rounder with Marquette would be a very spirited affair. Speaking of Marquette, the chance for a 3 vs. 14 upset are very realistic if BYU beats Iona in the play-in game. Still, on balance, this strikes me as a mediocre package for the neutral fan.
NASVHILLE Cincinnati-Texas, Florida State-St. Bonaventure Temple-Cal/South Florida, Michigan-Ohio Comments: What I like most about this group is that you can realistically hope for a significant upset in every first-round game. Florida State played great in the ACC Tournament, but if they lose focus–and as games like a midseason loss to Boston College showed, they are more than capable–then St. Bonaventure’s Andrew Nicholson, an outstanding post presence, can make them pay for it. South Florida played great in the Big East, and as mentioned above, should not be seeded this low. Which brings us to a direct byproduct of the hose job the committee did on Stan Heath’s Bulls–it also reduces the seed value for Temple at #5, because now they get a team that should be, at worst, playing in an 8-9 game. And if they get Cal, that’s not exactly a breather, as the Golden Bears have good talent and just haven’t put it altogether. CBS’ Seth Greenberg identified them as the best of the play-in teams, and while I don’t think Cal got a bad deal on seeding, I agree their potential is tremendous. Either way, Temple didn’t get much of a reward for a 5-seed. Finally, Texas is a young team that played Kansas, Missouri and Baylor all tough in the regular season and can certainly beat Cincinnati. Michigan is soft inside and Ohio is the same program that upended Georgetown in 2010. So you could be screaming for the underdog all weekend long, and the geographic proximity means Cincy, Michigan and perhaps Temple will bring a group of fans. Nashville is the sleeper in this whole silly discussion we’re having here.
OMAHA Missouri-Norfolk State, Florida-Virginia St. Mary’s-Purdue, Kansas-Detroit Comments: It’s the Big 12 version of Greensboro, and Kansas and Mizzou fans will keep the joint hopping all weekend. St. Mary’s-Purdue is a really good game, while Florida-Virginia is a pretty good one. Where I think this becomes most interesting is if Florida wins the first game, because the Gators have the talent to make Missouri sweat. I can’t say I feel the same about the Gaels or Boilmakers doing that to Kansas. Still, good job by the committee in putting this one together.
ALBUQUERQUE Baylor-South Dakota State, UNLV-Colorado State Vanderbilt-Harvard, Wisconsin-Montana Comments: Look, I’m a Wisconsin fan so I’d go. UNLV and Colorado State might bring a decent number of fans, half of whom will leave after a first-round loss. The Pit, one of college basketball’s great homecourt environments when New Mexico is here, might be as quiet as a crowd at The Masters. Albuqerque can only hope that Wisconsin-Vanderbilt give them a great game in the second round and that the presence of Harvard creates a Jeremy Lin sighting. If that happens, all bets are off.
PORTLAND Indiana vs. New Mexico State, Wichita State vs. VCU New Mexico vs. Long Beach State, Louisville vs. Davidson Comments: I would expect Indiana to travel well, and you’ll get a good storyline with a lot of them gladly rooting for New Mexico coach Steve Alford, the former Mr. Basketball in Indiana as a high school player, leader of IU’s 1987 NCAA title team and general all-around hero in the Hoosier State. The problem is that type of fan crossover is what’s going to be needed to juice up the arena, because who do you see that’s in good traveling distance? From a pure basketball standpoint Wichita State-VCU is a good game, and a Wichita-Indiana matchup in the second round would be a fabulous game. But if it’s just about a good basketball game, you can watch that on TV. If you’re going to a game you want atmosphere and Portland won’t give it.
There’s our eight choices. I’ve probably already given away that I think Greensboro, Omaha and Nashville are the best trips on the board. The cases for Greensboro and Omaha were very similar, and I rate the ACC venue a little bit better, just because I think the competitiveness of the two games involving non-powerhouses are slightly better. But I like Nashville better than any of them. I’ve had the chance to go to these first and second-round games a few times and while it looks juicy to see a powerhouse team go on the board, what it means in practice is that you’re going to see at least one, and perhaps two boring games out of the six on your card.
That’s why I like the Nasvhille bracket, which plays Friday and Sunday. There’s also more to do there on the off-day if you don’t want to sit in your motel and watch more basketball you can take in the Grand ‘Ol Opry on Saturday night. Or, as much as I knocked the Louisville bracket, that goes Thursday/Saturday, so you could drive up, pick up some second-round tickets from fans selling them off after their teams lost on Thursday and hit two games before driving back. It sounds like a pretty good overall deal to me. I might not be traveling this weekend, as I get set to celebrate St. Patrick’s Day in Milwaukee. But if I was going to do a basketball excursion, Nasvhille would be the place to be.
