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BCS Bowl Projections: Florida Joins Alabama In Losing Ground

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Alabama was the big loser on Saturday in their 29-24 loss to Texas A&M, falling from the #1 spot in the BCS standings down to #4 and putting themselves in need of substantial help to get back into the national championship picture. But there were other losers to. Let’s run through teams and conferences that are up against it, as we begin another round of BCS bowl projections.

*Florida’s narrow escape against UL-Lafayette—the Gators needed a blocked punt return on the final play of regulation to win 27-20—may have kept them alive for a major bowl game, but it put a crimp in their chances.

Coming into Saturday, Florida was in position to get into the top four nationally, which would have made them an automatic qualifier for a BCS at-large. They’re still sitting on sixth, but the Gators are behind both Alabama and Georgia—one of whom is guaranteed to win in the SEC Championship Game. Florida also lost considerable marquee appeal—the reality is they haven’t played a good game since they blew out South Carolina.

The end result is that the bowls are likely to have a choice as far as which SEC runner-up they want to pick. Florida will certainly be in that discussion. But they are now less attractive than Texas A&M, which has the marquee scalp of the season and the latest trendy quarterback in Johnny Manziel. I know we’re looking at a scenario where the Gators would be 11-1, the Aggies 10-2 and Florida beaten A&M head-to-head in College Station. But if you’re the Fiesta Bowl, who looks like a more marquee choice to you right now?

And if the SEC champ plays its way back into the title game and the Sugar gets to make a pick, doesn’t either A&M or LSU make more sense given geographic proximity? Florida needs help, and more importantly, they need to start playing better football before their finale against Florida State.

*The SEC in general is again being hurt by the ridiculous limitation of the number of at-large teams that can come from a single conference (A league can only send one additional team after its champion). I was as harsh as anyone on the idea that the league needed get both spots in the BCS National Championship Game last year. I’m all for the notion that all major conference champions should get a chance on the big stage, and I’m for making it easier to get midmajor conference champs into the BCS.

But when it comes to runner-ups, do we really need a rule that ensures the Big Ten actually has a chance at an at-large spot? It’s frightening and horrific thought, and before you slash your wrists, it’s not likely. But Michigan is #21 and if they win out—which would include a road win at Ohio State—they could move up to #14 and become eligible.  The SEC has the following teams in consideration for an at-large—the Alabama/Georgia loser, Texas A&M, Florida, South Carolina and LSU, all in the Top 10 of the BCS. With four at-large spots available, give one to Notre Dame, maybe one to Oklahoma or Clemson and let the SEC have at least two—in fact, give them three if South Carolina beats Clemson in a couple weeks.

*Which brings me to another loser and that’s Louisiana Tech. The WAC leader is the best hope for a midmajor crasher of the BCS, but they barely survived Texas State, 62-55. The Bulldogs held at 20th in the rankings, but they still need to move up four spots to qualify. And even at that they would need to pass a BCS conference champ in the rankings (La Tech is only an absolute automatic if they get to the top 12, which won’t happen). And when Nebraska survived a stiff challenge to Penn State and moved up to #14 in the process it removed the best chance for Louisiana Tech to pass a conference favorite. There’s still hope—Tech is ranked ahead of Wisconsin, who might pull an upset in the Big Ten title game. Tech is ranked ahead of everyone in the ACC’s Coastal Division, whose champ could upset Florida State in the ACC championship battle. But Tech’s chances of getting to the BCS without an upset realistically ended on Saturday.

*The Pac-12 knows now the only they can get an at-large bid is if they blow their national title hopes. When Oregon State lost to Stanford, it means that if Oregon wins out, all league runner-ups will have three losses. Oregon State still has two defeats, as does UCLA who leads the Pac-12 South. But the only way the Pac-12 can get two bids is if Oregon loses to one of them. A three-loss Pac-12 team likely isn’t even eligible, and even if they are, it wouldn’t compare to the prospect of bringing in undefeated Notre Dame as a replacement choice for Oregon.

*Louisville wasn’t going to play for the national title even if they were undefeated, but critics of the system would surely have loved to seen an unbeaten Cardinal team frozen out. It won’t happen now. Louisville’s ground game was non-existent in a 45-26 loss at Syracuse and they fell into a three-way tie with Cincinnati and Rutgers for the Big East lead. Louisville’s already beaten the Bearcats, so this league likely still comes down to Louisville-Rutgers on the final Thursday night, November 29.

Before we go into the final BCS bowl projections, a closing word on Alabama. Don’t write off the Tide just yet. Oregon has a gauntlet of three games to run, with Stanford, Oregon State and the Pac-12 title game (UCLA-USC winner). Kansas State has to play Texas on December 1. The game will be in Manhattan, but the Longhorns have talent, they can score points and with an 8-2 record, they could be in position to play their way into a BCS game themselves if they get help and Oklahoma loses. And Notre Dame has the season finale against USC. The Trojans look less imposing with each passing week, but the Irish don’t blow out Pitt or Boston College, so we should still expect a war in the Coliseum. Is it all that unthinkable that two of the three unbeatens lose and the SEC champ ends up back in?

The bigger question that has to concern Nick Saban is how good his team really is. I’ve been talking here at TheSportsNotebook how Alabama really hasn’t played anyone. But while I never thought they were head-and-shoulders above the competition, I also can’t say I thought the pass defense would be this bad. Both LSU and Texas A&M have exposed the Tide secondary and Georgia’s Aaron Murray is more than capable of doing the same.

I’m still giving ‘Bama the benefit of the doubt and picking them to win the SEC because I think Saban will have his team motivated for a prove-it-to-the-nation kind of performance, even if they can’t win the national title. But Dawgs-Tide looks a lot better right now than it did a couple weeks ago.

BCS NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME: Oregon-Kansas State
Rose: Nebraska-Notre Dame
Fiesta: Oklahoma-Texas A&M
Sugar: Alabama-Clemson
Orange: Florida State-Rutgers

Selection Note: I am presuming Oregon will end up #1, as BCS experts say winning those last three games will push them past Kansas State. This would give the Rose the first selection and the opportunity to get Notre Dame. The Fiesta would then pick to replace Kansas State, and then the selection order for this season also puts that bowl first in line, so under this scenario, the Fiesta makes two straight picks.

BCS Bowl Projections: Boise Plays Itself Out

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Notre Dame & Alabama narrowly escaped with their unbeaten seasons intact. Nebraska narrowly escaped with its path to the Big Ten title still intact. Florida narrowly escaped with its path a BCS at-large spot still intact. But Boise State wasn’t so lucky. The Broncos lost late Saturday night at home to San Diego State, 21-19, and with the defeat saw their hopes of an Orange Bowl bid go up in smoke.

San Diego State has been a team that’s quietly gaining steam in the Mountain West race, but this was really about the inherent shortcomings that this year’s Boise team has. In the end, they just didn’t have the kind of explosive passing attack that could put a team away. Joe Southwick was reasonably efficient at quarterback, completing 20-of-31 passes, but the Aztecs kept everything underneath, holding the Broncos to 164 yards in the air. Then San Diego State won the battle on the ground, getting 127 yards from Adam Muema.

Those of us that follow the mid-major conference races can see an exciting Mountain West race now in play for November. Boise, San Diego State, Fresno & Air Force all have just one conference loss and Nevada is right behind with two losses. For those that only care about the mid-majors to the extent they can impact the BCS bowl projections, the message from Saturday night is simple—Boise is dead, and so is the rest of the Mountain West.

The cause of the mid-majors in general is not gone yet though, as Louisiana Tech keeps sneaking up. The Bulldogs beat UT-San Antonio 51-27 and pushed their record to 8-1. The Bullodgs, led by prolific quarterback Colby Cameron, who tossed three touchdowns in another 300-plus yard performance, are up to #20 in the BCS rankings.

Their situation is the same as Boise’s was last week—they need to gain a few spots in the rankings, and get up to #16. Then they need some help. BCS rules require a team to make the top 12 for automatic qualification—and that’s almost impossible for Tech—but if they are in the top 16 and rank ahead of the champion of a major conference, then automatic qualification kicks in.

Nebraska is currently #16 and has a game with Penn State still ahead. Louisiana Tech could also hope for Wisconsin/Indiana to pull an upset in the Big Ten championship game or for something crazy to happen in the ACC. Bottom line—Louisiana Tech has a shot, although a showdown game in the WAC against Utah State on November 17 is no gimme.

Speaking of the Cornhuskers, they pulled a great escape in East Lansing. Trailing 24-14 in the fourth quarter, then trailing 24-21 and on defense with two minutes to go, Nebraska got the ball back, and scored the winning touchdown with six seconds left. Taylor Martinez rushed for over 200 yards and kept his team tied atop the Big Ten Legends Division with Michigan, a situation where the Huskers hold the tiebreaker.

Georgia continues to lurk under the radar as a possible national title team if we get November chaos and the one-loss teams can get back into the picture. The Bulldogs all but ensured they’ll have a chance to create some of that chaos when they all but clinched the SEC East with a 37-10 win over Ole Miss. After a slow start, Aaron Murray had a big day through the air, 21/28 for 384 yards and four touchdowns. All that stands between the Dawgs and a championship-game date with Alabama is taking care of lowly Auburn.

That brings us to ‘Bama, and with it we’ll also deal with their fellow unbeaten teams at the top of the polls. By all rights the Crimson Tide were finished on Saturday night in Baton Rouge. They trailed 17-14, their pass coverage had been atrocious all night—the previously mediocre Zach Mettenberg lit them up for 296 yards in the air and the Tigers were set to try a field goal with less than two minutes to play. They missed.

It still shouldn’t have mattered the way the Tiger defense was playing, but Les Miles inexplicably went into a soft coverage even though Alabama needed only a field goal to tie. The Mad Hatter, who’d gambled wildly all game along, got ultra-conservative in the worst possible situation. A.J. McCarron marched the Tide down the field with rapid ease and ‘Bama escaped.

Does the narrow escape mean Alabama is overrated? I’ve felt from the start that the Tide are simply one of the group of teams with a chance at being the best, and not indisputably the best, so this doesn’t surprise me. I’m also inclined to give them the benefit of the doubt for this game—in spite of the fact Alabama is clearly a better team than LSU, everything pointed to the Tigers bringing a max effort here—from the revenge factor to prime time. That the game ended up a nail-biter isn’t surprising, but how bad the Alabama pass coverage is did surprise me. Let’s just say Oregon and Kansas State must be salivating.

Kansas State is now #2 in the BCS rankings thanks to its 44-30 win over Oklahoma State, but Oregon moved up to #3 and with three big games ahead of them (Stanford, Oregon State, Pac-12 championship), it’s the Ducks who are presumed to have control of their destiny. I didn’t think they would win at USC, but then again I also thought the Trojans might be able to make an occasional tackle. Oregon running back Kenjon Barner rushed for 321 yards. How does a nationally reputable program ever allow that to happen?

If you’d told me on Saturday morning that the Trojans would get 92 yards rushing from Silas Redd, I’d have liked my upset pick. Throw in 484 yards in the air from Matt Barkley and I’d have liked it even more. But when Oregon got the ball it wasn’t if they would score, or even if it would be a touchdown—it was just how fast. They produced 730 yards of total offense, won the game 62-51 and left the defense-minded Pete Carroll who built this program’s modern legacy turning over in his grave (at least it would have if Carroll were dead).

Saturday’s results have led me to take Notre Dame out of a projected national title game and move Oregon in. After watching the Ducks on Saturday night, I don’t believe they’ll lose the rest of the way and the experts of the BCS system tell me that will get them to Miami on January 7. And Notre Dame needing a late comeback, a missed field goal and three overtimes to beat Pitt at home doesn’t exactly do a lot in the style points category.

I do have Notre Dame projected to make the Rose Bowl. If you presume an Alabama-Oregon matchup for the title, that gives the Sugar and Rose the first two picks. The Sugar may take the Irish, but if Florida wins out to get to 11-1, I expect that bowl will maintain its SEC connection. But USC’s loss means they won’t look good as a replacement pick for Oregon in Pasadena. If we presume the Trojans won’t win the Pac-12 title that means they would lose a fourth game. The Rose could also choose Oregon State or Stanford in maintain their own league tradition, but with the Irish not having gone west since the 1920s, I think this would be irresistible, as long as the Big Ten opponent isn’t someone they’ve already played.

CURRENT BCS BOWL PROJECCTIONS

BCS NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP: Alabama-Oregon
Sugar: Florida-Oklahoma
Rose:  Nebraska- Notre Dame
Fiesta: Kansas State- Clemson
Orange: Florida State-Rutgers