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NBA Playoffs: Lakers Advance With Game 7 Win

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The Los Angeles Lakers closed out one series with a tough win and the Boston Celtics opened another with a narrow escape, as the NBA playoffs sits on the fulcrum between the first and second rounds this weekend. TheSportsNotebook recaps both games…

LA Lakers 96 Denver 87: The Nuggets did a lot of what they had to do to win a seventh game on the road. They played good defense, holding Los Angeles to under 40 percent shooting. Even though Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum were all over the boards, combining for 35 rebounds, Denver still won the team rebounding battle 54-50. Kobe Bryant was held in reasonable check, scoring 17 points. But the Nuggets still came up short, because Danilo Gallinari must have been somewhere other than the Staples Center last night. The small forward who’s such a big part of the Denver offense scored only three points on 1-of-9 shooting. Coupled with cold nights from Andre Miller, and Gasol knocking down 23 for the Lakers, it was enough to put the home team over the top.

 

Overall, Denver got good play in the backcourt, with Ty Lawson and Aron Afflalo combining for 39 points, and Al Harrington came off the bench to score 24. Kenneth Faried didn’t score at power forward but he gave the team consistent rebounding effort throughout the series, including last night with ten boards. But this is the NBA playoffs and play by stars trumps all, especially in a big game. Even on an off-night, Kobe still contributed and at least he was efficient, shooting 7-for-16 and letting the big guys take over. Gallinari on the other hand, was persona non grata and that’s why Los Angeles is going to Oklahoma City for a second-round matchup that starts Monday.

Boston 92 Philadelphia 91: 48 hours after clinching their first-round series, these two teams started the NBA’s second round and Philly was the team ready for the tip, getting an early lead and still being up ten early in the fourth quarter. Then the Celtics took over. Kevin Garnett continued his strong play from the Atlanta series and with 29 points and 11 rebounds has been the best player in the postseason not named LeBron James. Garnett’s rebounding keyed a rare Celtic advantage on the boards—both of these teams are poor on the glass. As noted here at TheSportsNotebook in the series preview, 76er point guard Jrue Holiday had a tougher time scoring now that he’s not playing against backup guards. Holiday was held to eight points, though running mate Evan Turner was Philly’s best player, turning in a 16/10 night.

Philadelphia was in a position to win because the Celtics bricked three-point shots all over, going 2-for-18. Even though Ray Allen played 33 minutes after being listed as doubtful yesterday morning, he hasn’t gotten into his shooting rhythm for the entire postseason. The Sixers also had a shot because Andre Iguodala came up with 19 points, while counterpart Paul Pierce had only 14. How much Pierce is slowed by the knee injury is going to be a huge subplot in this series. But in the end, Boston has the Rajon Rondo factor and the little point guard had a triple-double, at 13 points, 12 rebounds and 17 assists and they had homecourt. That was enough to scrape out a win. The Celtics and Sixers will be back here on Monday.

The last game of the first round goes this afternoon when Memphis hosts the Los Angeles Clippers in a Game 7. The Grizzlies frontcourt of Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol has stepped it up the last two games and if you combine that with homecourt, Memphis will be tough to stop. The Clippers have to counter with either dominating the backcourt—and while I respect Memphis’ Mike Conley, it’s very easy to imagine Chris Paul having that type of game against almost anyone. And they cannot afford to have Blake Griffin show up in single digits rebounding-wise again. This is about as intriguing a Game 7 as you can get. The Clips have the individual best players, but the Grizzlies have homecourt. Which of the two decisive factors holds true? I’m going with homecourt. Memphis has the playoff experience from last year, I’m not ready to give Griffin the benefit of the doubt and assume he’ll come up with a good game, and even though I’ll give Paul the benefit of the doubt—mainly because I read and listen to Grantland’s Bill Simmons, a Clippers’ season-ticket holder too much—let’s acknowledge that this type of game is new territory for Los Angeles too. In the NBA you have to lose before you can win. It’s kind of like a Republican presidential primary. And for this series, it’s Memphis’ turn.

The Miami-Indiana second round series also begins today. TheSportsNotebook’s series preview is here.

NBA Playoffs: Memphis’ Big Men Wake Up In Time

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The Memphis Grizzlies’ frontline has awakened just in time to save the season. After a strong showing in a must-win Game 5, the Grizzlies’ inside duo of Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol again played big in a 90-88 survival win in Game 6 against the Los Angeles Clippers last night. The Grizzlies have now rallied to the tie the series at three games apiece and hold homecourt for Sunday afternoon’s decisive seventh game.

Randolph scored 18 points and pulled in 16 rebounds, while Gasol knocked down 23 and grabbed nine boards. As a team, Memphis destroyed Los Angeles on the boards to the tune of 48-32, thanks in part to Blake Griffin being a complete non-factor inside. Griffin has had some good games in this series, but these disappearing acts are also way too frequent for someone who has to join Chris Paul in an inside-out combo if the Clippers are going to win this series and be a threat going forward. And not just forward in the sense of a potential matchup with San Antonio in the second round, but going forward in terms of how high this franchise can sky, now that they have both Griffin and Paul together. The last thing an NBA player wants is the reputation for freezing in big games. Regardless of what happens this year I won’t slap the label on Griffin—this is his first time in the postseason—but it will be something to watch for.

The Clippers still nearly stole the win because Memphis couldn’t take care of the ball, turning it over 20 times. The Grizzlies’ bench had six of the turnovers while only scoring 13 points. Contrast that with the Los Angeles reserves. Eric Gordon knocked down 14 points and dished six assists, while Reggie Evans got 10 rebounds. The bench nearly pushed Los Angeles through.

Both Los Angeles teams are headed for Game 7s now. The Lakers host the Nuggets tonight in a game that will feature the return of Ron Artest/Metta World Peace or whatever you want to call a player who’s a dirty cheap shot artist, but also likely to play a key role in this game. The Lakers need someone who can play some shutdown defense on the perimeter, be it against Danilo Gallinari, or Andre Miller off the bench and Artest fills the bill. He’s also got fresh legs. I picked Denver to win this series, but the one caveat was that they needed to get their road win in one of the first three trips to LA and to sweep their home floor. They won Game 5 on the road, but didn’t defend their home floor and tonight it costs them. No way does Kobe lose a seventh game at home against a team like the Nuggets. Tonight’s game will follow the formula of the Boston-Atlanta game on Thursday night—look for some real clutch play from the superstar, some frustrating play by Denver in the closing minutes and some helpful officiating at key spots and the Lakers survive.

NBA Playoffs: Celtics & Sixers Clinch, Lakers Don’t

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The Eastern Conference semi-finals are set, as Philadelphia and Boston each won Game 6 thrillers at home to clinch and set up a second-round date with each other, joining Indiana and Miami. Out west, there’s still more work to be done, as the Denver-LA Lakers series will go to a seventh game. TheSportsNotebook looks back on last night’s three games and ahead to tonight’s Game 6 with Memphis and the LA Clippers…

Philadelphia 79 Chicago 78: No one can fault the Bulls’ effort. Even without Joakim Noah they hit the boards with a vengeance, demolishing the Sixers on the glass to the tune of 56-33. Luol Deng and Carlos Boozer alone combined for 30, nearly matching the entire Philly team. But the Sixers play good defense and Chicago’s missing its star, and the combination produced some ugly offensive numbers for the Bulls. Boozer shot 1-for-11, while Derrick Rose stand-in C.J. Watson went 2-for-11, concluding a series in which he definitively established he’s not meant to be more than a backup point guard, at least on a team with serious postseason aspirations. In spite of a good game from Rip Hamilton and Deng’s best efforts—he scored 19 to go with his 17 rebounds, Philly got 20 from Andre Iguodala and was able to survive. The question has been raised about whether the 76ers need to in effect, apologize for their series win because of the injuries to Rose and Noah. The answer is clearly no—injuries have been a part of every sport since the first time man started keeping score. But on the flip side, to suggest even having just one of Rose or Noah couldn’t have swung one of three close games in Philly the other way is to live in an alternative universe.

 

Boston 83 Atlanta 80: The Celtics didn’t shoot the lights out the way they did in the Garden in Game 4—they laid bricks from behind the three-point line all night, going 2-for-15 as a team with Ray Allen ice cold. Atlanta hit its own threes, with Marvin Williams connecting on 4-of-5. But Kevin Garnett bailed out Boston with a 28 points/14 rebounds night that included a big turnaround jumper in the paint that gave the C’s the lead for good in the closing minute. Boston also had a big edge from the foul line, scoring 19 points to Atlanta’s 9. And it’s the one point the Hawks didn’t get from the line that the fans will remember—when Al Horford missed the first of two shots when he had the chance to tie the game with three seconds left. It was the classic formula for a win by one of the league’s marquee teams on their home floor—they got a genuinely clutch game from a star, the opponent came up short at a key moment and you kick in a little favorable officiating—I almost flipped when they whistled Josh Smith for a technical foul because he didn’t check in properly in the second half of a close game. It all came together to give the Celtics a series win, and improbably, homecourt advantage for the second round against Philadelphia.

Denver 113 LA Lakers 96: Speaking of that whole formula for a marquee team theory, the Lakers didn’t have homecourt, nor did they have a star playing well—in fact, Kobe Bryant played with the flu—but they did get some help from the officials, getting 30 free throw attempts to Denver’s 17, with Bryant and point guard Ramon Sessions alone going to the line 12 times. I guess a “don’t touch the guards” rule was in effect. It didn’t matter last night, because the Nuggets shot the lights out, at 51 percent from the floor and 10/20 on treys. Ty Lawson buried five shots from behind the arc on his way to a 32-point night, Denver got contributions up and down the lineup and this game was never even as close as the score makes it sound, with the lead being up over 20 most of the second half. But watch that officiating tendency—could be a warning sign for Denver of what awaits in Game 7  at Staples on Saturday night.

We’ve got six of eight spots for the second round filled up, and one Game 7 set. The other series on the board is Memphis-LA Clippers, where the Clippers will get a chance to close the series on their home floor. Blake Griffin and Chris Paul will be ready to go after leaving Wednesday’s Game 5 with knee and ankle sprains. For the Clippers, I’m watching to see if Paul has a “get-on-my-back and I’ll carry you” kind of game, especially in the fourth quarter.  On the flip side, I think Memphis has to avoid putting their own point guard, Mike Conley, in that kind of battle with Paul. While Griffin may be the best post player on the floor, Memphis is deeper up front. Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph finally awoke in Game 5, and if they can do it again tonight, they’ll create a seventh game opportunity back home on Sunday.

NBA Playoffs: Three Teams Survive On Tuesday

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Tuesday night had the chance to be a Close-Out Night, with four teams having Game 5 clinching opportunities. Only one of them—the Indiana Pacers—took advantage. And no failing was more surprising than the Los Angeles Lakers losing at home to Denver. TheSportsNotebook recaps the four games from Tuesday and looks ahead to two more Game 5 clinch possibilities tonight…

Denver 102 LA Lakers 99: For about 3 ¾ quarters, the Nuggets completely outplayed the Lakers, and got up by 15 points in the fourth quarter. The nature of life in the NBA is such that even given that I still figured a lead like that was just enough to make the game a toss-up. Sure enough, Kobe got heated up and ripped off three straight treys. For the game, he took 32 shots, scored 43 points and depending on your perspective either willed his team back into the game or through his ball-hogging, helped create the deficit to begin with. It’s quite possible both arguments are right. But he missed his final three-pointer—a clean look with under five seconds left and TNT analyst Steve Kerr virtually shouting “Foul him”, and making him do it at the line. I think Kerr—who is rapidly becoming my favorite basketball analyst, pro or college—was right, but Kobe’s shot went a little long.

Los Angeles’ ultimate problem is that they didn’t shoot the ball well, being held to 38 percent from the floor, while Denver was able to get key backcourt people rolling. Andre Miller got 24 points and dished 8 assists off the bench. Arron Afflalo finally decided to give some production from the two-guard spot and scored 19. With his backcourt mates scoring, point guard Ty Lawson was able to focus on running the offense and had nine assists. But I think most impressive was that Denver limited LA’s rebounding edge to 48-43. With Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol the Lakers need to be winning this area much bigger. Because they did not, they have to either close the series on the road or in Game 7, all while preventing their vets from getting rest before a second-round series with Oklahoma City.

Chicago 77 Philadelphia 69: Bulls coach Tom Thibodeau takes tremendous pride in defense, and just in general a team that shows up and plays with pride sees that manifest itself either on the defensive end or on the glass, the areas where effort can always prevail. Chicago held Philly to 32 percent shooting from the floor, with the big shutdowns being on Jrue Holiday who was 5-for-17 after mostly controlling this series, and Andre Iguodala, the small forward who was 4-for-19.  The Bulls’ backcourt continues to be horrible on the offensive end without Derrick Rose—C.J. Watson, John Lucas and Rip Hamilton went a combined 7-for-25 from the floor, but the forwards stepped up big. Carlos Boozer has answered the bell from the moment the injuries happened and he did so again last night to the tune of 19 points and 13 rebounds. And this time he got help from Luol Deng, who hit 10-of-19 from the floor, banged home four treys and scored 24 points. I know it’s little consolation to Chicago fans right now, but the trial by fire Deng is getting at this point where he has to be a go-to guy is something that can help him in a future championship run when all the pieces healthy.

Atlanta 87 Boston 86: The ultimate edge for the Hawks came from the fact they outrebounded the Celtics thanks to the play of the now-healthy Al Horford along with Josh Smith, as the interior duo combined for 27 boards. But Boston is used to getting outrebounded. The real key was that Atlanta was able to shoot 46 percent from the floor and negate the defensive edge Boston normally brings to the table. No Celtic player had a really big game, although Rajon Rondo made every effort on the defensive end with five steals, including one with ten seconds left that gave his team a chance to win. It had the potential to be a “Bird steals the ball” moment, circa Game 5 of the 1987 Eastern Conference Finals, but this time there was no Dennis Johnson to feed and the Celtics never got off a last shot.  Atlanta can feel good not only about surviving, not only about having a potential Game 7 in their building, but about winning without a good game from Joe Johnson in the backcourt.

Indiana 105 Orlando 87: For three quarters the Magic gave the Pacers everything they could handle and had the lead, but Indiana delivered a thunderous blow in the final period, with a 36-16 scoring margin that enabled them to coast him. In this space yesterday we talked about how Orlando’s three guards needed to hit on all cylinders, but instead they only hit on one and a half. Jameer Nelson had a great game, with 27 points, including 5/8 from behind the arc. But J.J. Redick only had 12 and was unable to get his own three-point shot in gear. And Jason Richardson was a non-factor, a tough end for what was a decent series for the Orlando guard. Meanwhile, Indiana used their advantages up front, as Roy Hibbert and David West both helped control the boards for the home team and small forward Danny Granger stepped up to play like the star he’ll have to if Indiana’s going to keep this playoff run going. Granger scored 25 points and connected 4/9 from three-point range. Overall, after an alarming Game 1 loss, Indiana seems to have found their playoff footing in time for their impending second-round battle with Miami.

Speaking of Miami, they’ll have their closeout chance against New York tonight with a Game 5 in South Beach.  The Knicks fired their best shot in Game 4 and still barely won at home, and their already lousy backcourt has been further weakened this series with the injuries to Iman Shumpert and Baron Davis. This is the equivalent of the San Diego Padres’ offense losing its two best hitters. We’re really scraping the bottom of the barrel right now. And the good game tonight is the LA Clippers trying to wrap up their series in Memphis. I want to see Rudy Gay step up and meet the moment on his home floor in an elimination spot and on the flip side I want to see Blake Griffin start rebounding again, a job he neglected in Game 4. 30 points covered up other flaws in that game, but to win the road the Clippers need to control the glass and Griffin and the up-to-now non-existent DeAndre Jordan need to make that happen.

NBA Playoffs: Lakers, Sixers & Celtics In Command

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The Los Angeles Lakers didn’t have to get a win in Denver to win their first-round series, but championship teams find ways to scrape out W’s on the road and shorten a series. That’s exactly what Los Angeles did last in Game 4, as they beat Denver. With the Lakers, along with the Sixers and Celtics, taking 3-1 leads in their first-round series, it feels like we’re living some early 1980s retro—all we need is Dr. J, Magic and Bird in the house to make it complete. And the fourth game going Sunday, Heat-Knicks, is also at 3-1, although in this case it’s because New York staved off elimination. TheSportsNotebook recaps Sunday’s grand slam and looks ahead to Monday’s doubleheader…

LA Lakers 92 Denver 88: Los Angeles won the rebounding battle and that was enough to win the game. Pau Gasol  and Andrew Bynum were decent, combining for 16 boards. But the real factor was Jordan Hill coming off the bench at center to produce 11 rebounds, along with 12 points. With Kobe leading the scoring charge, with 22 points and dishing 8 assists, the Lakers had enough to win the most defensive-oriented game of this series. The Denver backcourt failed to control the pace and make their taller, older opponent really play all 94 feet. Two-guard Aron Afflalo is the biggest culprit—with just six points last night it was his worst game of what was already a forgettable series.

 

Philadelphia 89 Chicago 82: Media storylines don’t always tell you everything, but the storyline that says this shocking development for #8 seed Philly is all about Chicago’s injuries to Derrick Rose and Joakim Noah is pretty much on the button. The Bulls are renowned for their defense, but with these two players out, the 76ers have gone right at the replacement. Point guard Jrue Holiday had 20 on Sunday, the latest in a stellar series for the man who would normally be guarded by Rose. And center Spencer Hawes, not a huge factor in the first two games with Noah on him, looked like Charles Barkley reincarnate in Philly with the opposing starter out these past two games. Hawes scored 22 yesterday. Chicago’s Carlos Boozer played like the season was on the line, with 23 points and 11 rebounds, although his five turnovers contributed to a Philly edge in this category. Taj Gibson had a solid game off the bench, the three guards—Rip Hamilton, C.J. Watson and John Lucas have to hit on all cylinders if the East’s top seed is going to rally and yesterday only Watson was involved in the offense.

Boston 101 Atlanta 79: The Celtics simply shot the lights out. They were 51 percent from the floor, but the figure was up over 60 percent for an extended period in the first half and early second when the game was put away. The C’s hit 11/26 from three-point range. To illustrate how hot they were, Rajon Rondo, for whom a 10-footer is a major challenge, connected on two treys. Passing isn’t a major challenge for Rondo and he had 16 assists. There’s nothing Atlanta can do about a hot shooting team other than just come back stronger, but their own backcourt was appallingly absent last night in the Garden. The Hawks played a three-guard lineup to start, and Joe Johnson, Jeff Teague and Kirk Hinrich combined for 16 points, well short of Johnson’s 29 by himself in Game 3. Atlanta was not going to win last night no matter what they did, but they certainly made Boston’s job a lot easier.

New York 89 Miami 87: I’ve been dumping all over New York from the time the playoffs began, but I’m going to give them some credit for not mailing this one in, calling it a season and hoping Phil Jackson can be talked out of retirement to coach them. Amare Stoudamire came back and had a 20/10 day, while Carmelo Anthony clearly decided that MSG was his house and poured in 41 points. The backcourt is still terrible—the top four guards combined for 15 points, and now Baron Davis is out with an ugly knee injury. But the team brought the effort and deserves a tip of the hat for that.

The top half of the Western Conference bracket goes tonight…

San Antonio-Utah: The Spurs can close out a series sweep here and the only thing I can think of stopping them is if Utah gets off to a strong start and Gregg Popovich decides to pace his veterans and just close it out at home in Game 5. If San Antonio gets out quick, or at least answers desperation intensity from the Jazz right away, this one will be done.

Memphis-LA Clippers: Memphis has the second of what are three chances to reclaim homecourt advantage. They coughed up a lead in Game 3 to give away their first chance—this after blowing a 27-point fourth quarter lead in Game 1 to put themselves behind the eight-ball to begin with. Who exactly is the team who had playoff success last year and who is the one who’s new to the spotlight? Memphis needs to start acting like the former.

NBA Playoffs: The Stars Define Tuesday Night

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Last night, as I watched Jaleel White (formerly Steve Urkel of Family Matters) get eliminated from Dancing With The Stars (yes, I watch the show. Not fanatically. Not at the expense of Monday Night Football in the fall season, but enough to get a strike against me, per the Miller Lite commercials), I thought that Jaleel could’ve gone the distance, but often didn’t seem to unleash everything at the key moment. If there’s any sport that can be correlated to DWTS, it’s the NBA, with its special emphasis on individual stars seizing moments. And last night was all about three stars—Paul Pierce and Kobe Bryant because they were there, and Derrick Rose because he wasn’t. TheSportsNotebook recaps the three games and looks ahead to three more tonight…

Philadelphia 109 Chicago 92: The obvious question that comes to mind is how much this had to do with the loss of Rose for the rest of the playoffs with his torn ACL. But even without Rose for about half the regular season, the Bulls were the best defensive team in the league. The Sixers shot 59 percent. That can’t be about Rose’s absence. They outrebounded Chicago. That has nothing to do with Rose’s absence. Carlos Boozer and Luol Deng were non-factors offensively. I suppose you can make the indirect argument for Rose’s value in getting them the ball, but with 14 points combined, that’s taking the point to an extreme level.

You can point to Philadelphia guards Jrue Holiday scoring 26 points and Lou Williams lighting it up with 20 off the bench as evidence of Rose’s defensive value. I’ll give some credence to this, but ultimately I have to see a team that hadn’t emotionally adjusted to not having their star player. Its one thing to strategically adjust during the regular season, knowing the Man is one the way back for the biggest games. It’s another thing to look at your huddle without him and know this is all there is from now until June. Chicago has absolutely demonstrated they can win two playoff rounds with their current roster. They have further demonstrated you can’t even count them out against Miami or the Western Conference winner with the current roster.

The team knows how to play without Rose—they aren’t better without him, it’s still a huge loss, but they can compete at an extremely high level. That leads me to believe this current battle is mental. I respect what the Bulls have accomplished as a team and what Tom Thibodeau has done as a coach, so I’m not ready to write off their title hopes based on last night.

Boston 87 Atlanta 80: If Paul Pierce’s basketball game would have been a DWTS number last night, he would’ve gotten 10s across the board. On the floor, he had 36 points and 14 rebounds and virtually singlehandedly pushed the Celtics to a road win without a suspended Rajon Rondo and an injured Ray Allen. And for all Boston’s woes in the early part of the playoffs, suddenly they’re exactly where you expected them to be and have taken homecourt advantage. Kevin Garnett was good last night. Atlanta helped the C’s out by settling for missed three-point shots all night, while Boston took the ball to the hole and created a 26-16 scoring advantage on free throws. But this was Pierce’s night.

LA Lakers 104 Denver 100: It was Kobe’s night in Hollywood as he poured in 38 points. Bryant’s performance wasn’t quite the epic that Pierce’s was, because the Lakers had some help involved. Andrew Bynum is terrorizing the Nuggets inside, with 27 points and 9 rebounds, following up his insane points/rebounds/blocks triple-double in Sunday’s Game 1. I picked Denver to win this series, but I thought that Al Harrington and Javale McGee could at least hold their own in the low post. They’ve done nothing of the sort, small forward Danilo Gallinari hasn’t made an impact and this series has turned into the Kobe & Bynum show. If Denver is going to pull the upset they need to win four straight, because no one takes a Game 7 in Staples from Bryant.

Tonight the top half of the Western Conference bracket goes into action with San Antonio going to Utah, the LA Clippers visiting Memphis and in the East its Indiana-Orlando. The Spurs-Jazz series is lacking in drama and lacking in any reason to think Utah can win a single game—just pushing the series back to San Antonio for a Game 5 would be a moral victory. And Orlando, having taken home court from Indiana, tries to show they can hold it.

As to the Clips-Grizzlies,  I erred in yesterday’s post saying this game would be played last night. So I’ll just rehash the preview I wrote….  “Do the Grizzlies roll over after blowing the 27-point lead in the fourth quarter of Game 1 at home? Or do they realize that they can’t get outrebounded again, bring max intensity to even the series and vow to themselves that they can get homecourt advantage back when the series reverts west? The talent is still there. There was no reason to think, in general, that the Clippers couldn’t get one win on the road, while Memphis still won the series. If that’s the Grizzlies’ mindset, they can bounce back. If they feel like they gave a shot at the Finals, this potentially good series can get away early.”

NBA 1st Round Preview: LA Lakers-Denver

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The Los Angeles Lakers come into the postseason riding a wave of controversy, after the suspension of Ron Artest, Man Of World Peace, has put their small forward on the bench for six games. But Los Angeles has ridden the trio of Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum to a 41-25 record, the Pacific Division title and a #3 seed in the NBA’s Western Conference. Can they hold off 6th-seeded Denver when their first-round series begins on Sunday? TheSportsNotebook previews the Lakers-Nuggets…

Let’s begin with Los Angeles’ obvious strength and it’s the sheer star power they bring to the table with Kobe Bryant. Delivering a season that deserves some MVP consideration, Kobe took a heavy load in minutes, in a compressed year where a lot of top players—particularly those on the high side of 30—paced themselves, and was the league’s second-leading scorer. No one will ever accuse him of excessive interest in getting his teammates involved and his 43% shooting percentage was well behind scoring rival Kevin Durant of Oklahoma City who shot 50 percent. But while I don’t like Kobe any more than any Celtics fan, give the man his due—he carried Los Angeles to a regular season level they really had no business achieving.

The presence of Bynum and Gasol gives the Lakers a post presence almost impossible to match up with. Both go seven feet tall, and they combine for 36 points/22 rebounds per night and mix in a few blocked shots for good measure. This interior presence, along with Bryant is the engine that drives the Lakers.

If you believe that to pull an upset, the underdog must go opposite the favorite in terms of strength, then Denver has to be given a fair chance to win this series. The Nuggets look to push tempo, while the Lakers run the halfcourt offense. Denver has a reasonable amount of depth, while LA is dependent on its Big Three. The Nuggets are an excellent rebounding team in their own right—4th in the league, compared to the Lakers’ 2nd, so they can at least not get buried in the post. Add these natural matchup advantages to the fact LA is down a body without Artest and you have the makings of an upset.

Denver will have to win the battle of the backcourts decisively, and if we incorporate the small forward role into the equation there’s every reason to think they can do that. Ty Lawson, Aron Afflalo and Danilio Galini all average 15-plus points per game. All three score with efficiency, hitting better than 40 percent of their shots from the floor, with Lawson and Afflalo inching toward the 50 percent threshold. These three are enough to compensate for Bryant. If the Lakers are going to counter, point guard Ramon Sessions will have to run the offense effectively under pressure and hit a few shots himself and Steve Blake will have to be a contributing factor. I like Sessions’ chance to contribute, while being less positive about Blake.  The Nuggets also have two guards off the bench who get regular playing time, in Andre Miller and Corey Brewer. Neither will dazzle you, but both can hit a jumper if the Laker defense doesn’t keep up.

This article is written with a lot of positives for Denver when we evaluate personnel, but there’s one thing not to like about this Nuggets team and it’s that 19th ranking in defensive efficiency, which adjusts points allowed for tempo, so the fast pace they play at is not an excuse. You do not beat a championship-caliber team playing that kind of defense.

But that brings us back to the question of whether Los Angeles is championship-caliber (I feel like a laywer, I’m going back and forth on this so much). I can see a good argument for the idea that they are, and I don’t want to overstate the six-game loss of The Man of World Peace, but he does play some defense and he’s an extra body in a series where the Lakers will need depth. He would be back for a Game 7 if it comes to that at the Staples Center. I believe Denver is going to take a 3 games to 2 lead in this series, but they won’t win a decisive game on the road. My bet is that they do find a way to close it out in the Rockies in Game 6 and deliver the one big upset in a league known for its chalkiness.