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Kentucky NCAA Tournament chances

College Basketball Coverage: The Crazy SEC Bubble

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Just when we thought they were in, they pulled themselves back out. That might be our operative phrase for a couple SEC basketball teams, most notably Kentucky and Tennessee after this past weekend’s games. This a conference that is crazy on the NCAA Tournament bubble right now—while Florida locked up a share of the league title and Missouri is comfortably in the field, it’s anybody’s guess with at least five other teams.

We’ll start with Kentucky, because they were in position to simplify this conversation. I won’t say a win at Arkansas this past Saturday we would have put the Wildcats in the field—UK was projected as a #12 seed by ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi on Friday—but a nice road win would certainly have made them comfortable and just as importantly, it probably would have knocked the Razorbacks out.

Kentucky has won three of five since losing center Nerlens Noel for the season to a torn ACL. One of the wins was a big home victory over Missouri, sending the Selection Committee a message that the ‘Cats could still compete without their most noteworthy player. I don’t know that there’s been a drastic difference in Kentucky’s play with or without Noels, so why should the committee factor that in? John Calipari’s team has to ride point guard Archie Goodwin, forward Alex Poythress and get some more rebounding help from seven-footer Willie Cauley-Stein. Unsurprisingly, all three players are freshman. It also wouldn’t hurt if 6’10” forward Kyle Wiltjer, the team’s best three-point shooter got hot in next Saturday’s regular season finale with Florida.

As for Arkansas, they weren’t officially on the Lunardi radar coming into the weekend, at least not being among the first eight teams the bracketologist had missing the field. The Hogs are 74th in RPI, which isn’t overly impressive. But they have two factors going for them—they’re an improving team and they went out and played a good non-conference schedule. Granted, it was mostly futile, with losses to Arizona State, Wisconsin, Syracuse and Michigan. But there was a win over Oklahoma mixed in there and the issue of rewarding teams for simply playing—as opposed to actually beating—good teams is one of those perpetual debates that seems to get handled differently every year. The same goes for the amount of weight given to a team’s recent form—we know improvement counts for something, but for how much?

If getting better and testing oneself outside of the league are given credence, the Hogs still have a shot. They’ve got a big game at Missouri on Tuesday night (7 PM ET, ESPN) and a win would eliminate the biggest flaw on their resume—there are no quality road wins. The season’s best moments, the wins over Florida, Missouri and Kentucky, have all come at home.  Arkansas has two good scorers in guard B.J. Young and forward Marshawn Powell, and both need to be at their best in Columbia come Tuesday.

Tennessee is shaping up to be the equivalent of the Mitt Romney campaign. Most of the season was like the early part of the campaign—they weren’t bad, but no one was predicting ultimate victory. Then came a six-game win streak that was analogous to Romney in the first debate. In Tennessee’s case it was capped by a home win over Florida this past week. All the momentum was with now with the Vols and with talented junior scorer Jordan McRae leading the way, an NCAA bid was within their grasp. Then the balloon deflated and that momentum was a thing of the past. Tennessee lost to Georgia yesterday, in spite of 35 from McRae. It’s not an Election Night yet in college basketball, so I suppose the Vols can still recover. But at minimum they need to win a home game with Missouri next weekend and would probably need something significant in the SEC Tournament.

I’m disappointed with Tennessee, but I’m positively disgusted with Ole Miss. The Rebels are in a free fall, having dropped six of ten and a Saturday loss to lowly Mississippi State was the nadir of the season. The Rebs have also lost to mediocre South Carolina within this span. Marshall Henderson is still an electric a player as there is in the league, but he’s not exactly discerning on his shot selection, so his 20 ppg comes with certain inefficiencies. And while forwards Murphy Holloway and Reginald Buckner are good, there’s no one else stepping up to provide depth. Ole Miss is 59th in the RPI and is going to need a splash in the conference tournament to get into the NCAA and save head coach Andy Kennedy’s job.

TheSportsNotebook’s college basketball coverage zeroed in on Alabama a couple weeks ago, so you can read more about the Tide there. Their loss to Florida realistically ended any SEC title hopes, and at 60th in the RPI, I think ‘Bama is in serious trouble for the NCAA Tournament. Their game with Ole Miss on Tuesday (7 PM ET, ESPNU) is realistically an elimination game and a home date with Georgia to end the year doesn’t leave an opportunity to impress.

I suppose due diligence requires a mention of Texas A&M and LSU, since they have the overall records—17-12 & 17-10 respectively—to be on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament and they play head-to-head on Wednesday.  But both have RPIs in the 80s, and in the case of A&M, they’ve lost nine of thirteen. Either team would have to get to the final of the conference tournament to even make it a discussion (and obviously if they won the final it would eliminate the need for discussion).

What it boils down to is that when this league converges on Nashville for the tournament on March 14, there’s going to be a lot of shaking out to do. Because just when you think teams from the SEC have finally played their way into the Dance, they pull themselves back out.

Is Ole Miss Basketball An SEC Title Contender?

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The SEC has seen two ships cross in the night when it comes to the race for its conference championship. Ole Miss basketball wasn’t supposed to be a contender, while Kentucky certainly wasn’t supposed to be an NCAA bubble team. But that’s how the season has unfolded to date. It’s Ole Miss that’s tied with Florida atop the conference standings, with Missouri lurking just behind. And it’s Kentucky that’s struggling. With the Rebels set to host last year’s national champion, today is as good a time as any to take a deeper look at Ole Miss basketball and see if they’re the real deal.

We have to begin by noting that even though the Rebels are 17-2, the resume is not littered with impressive wins. The non-conference mark was padded by piling up easy wins, while also losing to Middle Tennessee and Indiana State. Both are pretty good midmajor programs, but losing to them certainly doesn’t suggest an SEC team is ready to go hang with Florida.

While the 6-0 start in league play is eye-catching, the quality of the opposition is not. Ole Miss has beaten an okay Tennessee team twice, along with Arkansas who is fairly average. The Rebs have beaten bad teams in Vanderbilt and Auburn. The one impressive win was Missouri, whom Ole Miss nailed 64-49 two and a half weeks ago, but there’s an asterisk here too —Mizzou was playing without its best player in Laurence Bowers.

Thus, we can give very high marks to Ole Miss for consistency—it’s not easy to go through an extended stretch of games against average teams and never slip up even once. But we have to reserve judgment on their ability to compete with the conference’s best.

Ole Miss’ most explosive player is junior guard Marshall Henderson, who averages 19 ppg. He’s supported by two good forwards in seniors Murphy Holloway and Reginald Buckner. Holloway is the better of the two averaging 15 points/10 rebounds, while Buckner averages a 10/8. It was these two players who exploited Missouri’s weaknesses on the frontcourt with Bowers out. Then running alongside Henderson in the backcourt is senior Nick Williams, who knows his role and kicks in 10 ppg.

The weaknesses on this team would be that Henderson is the only one who takes three-point shots with any regularity and at 36 percent, he hits them enough to justify shooting, but he’s not so deadly that it’s a real threat to a defense. And there’s no true post player. This is the kind of team I like over the long haul—most college teams can’t exploit you in the post and three-point shooting comes and goes. The fact you don’t rely on the trey means you’ll win consistently in a conference schedule. The problem comes with the one-and-done format of college basketball in March. Eventually you play a team that’s shooting well from outside, or you run into someone who can create a matchup problem for you in the post.

Of course that just means I wouldn’t bet Ole Miss to win the national championship, and I doubt if even many Rebel fans are thinking along those lines. The question for now is whether they can keep hanging in the race for the SEC regular season title. We’ll get at least an inkling tonight against Kentucky. Then comes a big test on Saturday at Florida (7 PM ET, ESPNU). And then the following Saturday is a game at Missouri when it looks like Bowers will be back in the lineup. We know the Rebs are competitive and consistent. Now let’s find out if their title-worthy in their own backyard.

SEC SHIPS PASSING IN THE NIGHT

Kentucky is, of course, the team Ole Miss has replaced as the third wheel in the SEC race with Florida and Missouri. The alarm bells are going off for the Wildcats, who are currently projected as a #10 seed in today’s NCAA Tournament landscape, as laid out by ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi. That’s bubble territory and not what anyone was expecting. I thought UK would be rolling by this time, and I’m still on the optimistic side for John Calipari’s team to have a strong February.

Freshman center Nerlens Noel is playing well—the scoring, at 10 ppg, is modest, but the kid grabs nine boards and blocks four shots a game. There’s quality three-point shooting from Alex Poythress and Kyle Wiltjer. And guard Archie Goodwin is a good all-around player, with one exception. And it’s that exception that might be the source of the problem. Goodwin takes more three-point shots than anyone on this team and he only hits 29 percent. Maybe it’s time for Calipari to tell the kid to put the ball on the floor instead of jacking up the treys.

After tonight’s trip to Ole Miss, Kentucky will play Texas A&M. And as long as we’re on the subject of ships passing in the night, remind to never again sing the praises of A&M basketball. A couple weeks ago, I noted their 2-0 start in SEC play and wrote a complimentary article on their chances of hanging in the race. I could live with the fact that they got blown out by Florida immediately after the article went online. I can’t live with the fact they still haven’t won a game since, including losses to SEC cellar-dwellers LSU & Georgia. The Aggies’ Elston Turner is still a quality scorer, but no one in this lineup is averaging more than three assists per game. Let’s see some ball movement.