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Kansas Final Four chances

College Basketball Coverage: South Regional Preview

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Kansas and Georgetown have come a long way since midseason. The Jayhawks were playing so poorly for a brief stretch in February that head coach Bill Self lost it in a postgame press conference. The Hoyas had to suspend center Greg Whittington. Each team recovered to win a piece of its conference regular season title and they come into the NCAA Tournament’s South Regional as the 1-2 seeds. TheSportsNotebook.com will break down this regional pod-by-pod, make picks and assess the betting odds on the contenders to reach the Final Four.

#1 Kansas vs. #16 Western Kentucky
#8 North Carolina vs. #9 Villanova

The media buzz is all about a potential second-round matchup between Kansas and North Carolina (regular readers of TheSportsNotebook’s college basketball coverage know I refuse to go along with the NCAA’s labeling the play-in games “the first round” and these games “second and third round”. The real second round starts on Saturday). The buzz is justified. Roy Williams coaching against his old school is a great storyline and the fact the games will take place in Kansas City make it even better.

But can North Carolina get that far? Villanova has beaten Louisville, Syracuse, Marquette and Georgetown this season and certainly won’t fear the Tar Heels. Both teams are oriented to the backcourt and thus reliant on their man inside player—James Michael McAdoo for UNC and Mouphtaou Yaro for ‘Nova—to at least deliver a rebounding presence. I’ve gone back and forth on this game several times, but I’m staying with North Carolina out of deference to Williams.

I can’t defer to Williams for the Kansas game though. The Tar Heels’ lack of depth will be exploited by KU center Jeff Withey, and the Jayhawk backcourt scorers of Ben McLemore and Travis Releford will keep North Carolina from collapsing its defenses. Williams did an admirable job getting his young team to improve this year, but the lack of traditional Carolina height does them in here.

#4 Michigan vs. #13 South Dakota State
#5 Virginia Commonwealth vs. #12 Akron

I’ve got no hesitation about moving both favorites forward. I don’t think Akron is good enough, and while South Dakota State is, they’re getting a little too much attention in the mainstream media as a sleeper team. I’m less certain about a good Michigan-VCU game in the second round. The Wolverines aren’t playing well right now, because they aren’t getting a lot from the forward position, namely Glenn Robinson III. But VCU, while having a good forward in Juvonte Reddic, is similarly built around the perimeter game. And when it comes down it, I’ll go with Trey Burke and Tim Hardaway Jr. They’re better players and Nik Stauskas gives Michigan a three-point dimension better than that of the Rams.

#3 Florida vs. #14 Northwestern State
#6 UCLA vs. #11 Minnesota

There’s no way on earth I’m picking Minnesota to beat anybody. I know UCLA lost 15ppg scorer Jordan Adams to a foot injury that will sideline him for the tournament. I know Minnesota has beaten Indiana and Wisconsin. But the Gophers just tanked so badly down the stretch that I devoted my daily sports commentary on Sunday morning to why they didn’t deserve an NCAA bid. Based on that alone I can’t pick them to advance and they’re playing a team whose coach I respect and who has a great player in Shabazz Muhammad. If the Gophs are going to win they need both a signature performance from forward Trevor Mbakwe, and for UCLA interior players David & Travis Wear to be virtual no-shows. I won’t say it’s beyond the realm of possibility, but I certainly won’t pick it.

I’d like to go with UCLA one more game, due to Florida’s vulnerabilities—this is an offense more dependent on the three-ball than the U.S. economy is on imported oil. That’s just not a good formula. But this is where the absence of Adams impacts my thinking and I’m also drawing on some recent history—Florida beat UCLA in the NCAA final in 2006, in the Final Four in 2007 and in the second round in 2011. All of these games had the coaching matchup of Billy Donovan vs. Ben Howland. Gotta give Billy the benefit of any doubt in this matchup now.

#2 Georgetown vs. #15 Florida Gulf Coast
#7 San Diego State vs. #10 Oklahoma

I can’t be completely lame and make this an all-chalk bracket with the top four seeds advancing. Well, I suppose I could, but this isn’t that kind of tournament. And I have to pick a massive shocker somewhere along the way. So how about a team that’s already proven it can beat a two-seed? Florida Gulf Coast beat Miami back in November and amazingly, they aren’t getting any love from the media as an upset possibility here. The fact they’re still under the radar excites me even more, I’m taking the big first-round upset special here.

That opens the door for the San Diego State-Oklahoma winner to reach the Sweet 16. This game really doesn’t excite me. San Diego State has underachieved a little, but not so much as to be a disgrace. Oklahoma has overachieved a little, but not so much as to win nonstop admiration. The inside-out combo of Steve Pledger and Romero Osby push the Sooners through in this game and then they take advantage of the bracket break and get to the regionals in North Texas.

PROJECTED REGIONALS
Kansas-Michigan
Florida-Oklahoma

Billy Donovan’s got the luck of the Irish if this holds up, because his path would be marked by a UCLA team wounded by injury and now getting 10th-seeded Oklahoma. Sooner Nation ends up with more reason to hate Florida—for there was the 2008 BCS National Championship Game, where OU lost to Tim Tebow’s Gators, and now this projected tournament loss.

Kansas-Michigan would be a great game, and it’s here I’m going to roll the dice again. The biggest concern about Michigan as I write this is that they’re a little sluggish right now. But this scenario presumes they get back on track this coming weekend and if that happens they have the talent to contain Kansas on the wings, create offense for themselves in the backcourt and maybe the forwards can keep Withey from taking over the game. I’m picking the Wolverines to win this one and to continue to ride the momentum wave past Florida and get to the Final Four.

BETTING LINES
Believe it or not, #3 seed Florida is the 7-5 betting line favorite to win this regional, with Kansas clocking in at 5-2. Georgetown is at 4-1, with Michigan a 5-1 shot. Virginia Commonwealth is in a neighborhood of their own at 12-1, and then you mix in the 20-1s of Minnesota and North Carolina and 30-1 on San Diego State. I wouldn’t go any lower than that, but since I did put Oklahoma in the regionals, I’ll point out that you get them at 75-1 to reach the Final Four.

My best bet would be the same as my straight-up pick, since Michigan’s getting a nice 5-1 price. I have to say if I were actually at a betting window, I’d probably adopt a conservative strategy—take both Georgetown and Michigan at equal amounts and if one of them wins the regional, you turn a profit. I like this, because in spite of my upset pick I’m not down on the Hoyas—more up on Florida Gulf Coast and feeling like you have to take a shot somewhere. If Georgetown does take care of business, the path clears up well for them to play Michigan in the final, which works perfectly with my betting scenario.

The Roller-Coaster Ride Of Kansas Basketball

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Kansas basketball has been so ruthlessly efficient over the years that it’s easy for them to become an afterthought. You know they’ll win the Big 12, be a high seed in the NCAA Tournament and a potential Final Four pick in your bracket, but the consistent efficiency that the Jayhawk program operates makes it easy to take them for granted—to assume that every KU team is basically the same.

Maybe that’s true, but this February has been anything but ordinary. Bill Self made national news with a public lambasting of his team and Kansas lost three in a row. Then they turned it right back around with a five-game win streak that included last night’s wild 108-96 overtime win at Iowa State. So just who are these guys at Kansas and can they win Self’s second national title? Here’s a closer look at the personnel and a special emphasis on the key moments of February’s roller-coaster ride.

Jeff Withey may or may not be Kansas’ best player, but the 7-foot center is certainly the most consequential. In an era where true post players at the center position are hard to find, the senior is just that. He averages 14 points/8 rebounds a night, and while he’s not a dominator that makes NBA scouts drool, he’s a very difficult matchup for most anyone.

Even with Withey’s presence in the middle, Self’s team is still backcourt-heavy though. Kevin Young, a senior with pedestrian numbers is the only other starter on the frontcourt, is this not a team that has great depth at any position. But a trio of guards is difficult to defend and offer diversity in production.

Freshman Ben McLemore has emerged as the leading scorer, with 16 ppg and he does it with high efficiency. McLemore shoots 49 percent from the floor and a red-hot 42 percent from behind the arc. Senior Travis Releford shoots even better, an astonishing 61 percent from the floor and 46 percent from three-point range. Elijah Johnson runs the show at the point and is a competent shooter. Actually, Iowa State fans might be forgiven for thinking Elijah is a little more than competent, given his 39-point explosion last night in Ames, but for the season Johnson averages 10 ppg and shoots 40 percent from the floor.

The combination is a well-balanced floor. Kansas can open the half-court offense up with the three-ball and then pound it to Withey in the post if defenses extend to far to the perimeter. All they need to do is make sure everyone stays healthy and out of foul trouble and the balance is there for another big run in the NCAA Tournament.

Of course the first half of February made it look like even a big run in the Big 12 tournament was wishful thinking. Kansas hit a funk, that started with a loss to Oklahoma State at home, a stunning upset at TCU and another road loss at Oklahoma. Here’s a brief summation of what went awry in each game…

*The backcourt defense didn’t get it done in the 85-80 loss to Okie State. The talented Cowboy guards, Markel Brown and Marcus Smart, scored 25 & 28 points respectively. Releford was a non-factor for Kansas, preventing the Jayhawks from answering.

*Self’s highly publicized postgame press conference came after the TCU game. As ugly as the loss looks on paper, I’m inclined to cut them a little bit of a break. KU shot 30 percent from the floor and every team is going to have games where they can’t buy a shot. Their own defense and rebounding was actually pretty good. I thought Self’s comments—“this is the worst Kansas team since James Naismith”—were rather funny, but I never read too much into this game as a long-term predictor of Jayhawk fortunes.

*I was concerned with the ensuing loss to Oklahoma though. Even though a 72-66 road loss at a likely NCAA Tournament team is nothing to be ashamed of on paper, the fact a smallish Sooners team stayed with Kansas on the boards in spot where you would have thought all the Jayhawks intensity would be at max levels, was a little disconcerting.

It turned out that OU loss was finally where things bottomed out. Kansas has now won their last five. Two of the wins were against bad teams in Texas and the home rematch with TCU. But three others have been significant, with a home win over Kansas State, then road wins at Oklahoma State and last night in Iowa State. Here are the pertinent points on this trio of games…

*The rebounding ferocity came to bear in the 83-62 destruction of Kansas State, a game the Jayhawks had to win if they were going to keep their run of eight straight Big 12 titles (outright or shared) going. Withey and Young led up an effort that produced a 39-20 rebound advantage.

*Kansas played tough defense against Oklahoma State, holding the Cowboys to 33 percent shooting from the floor, while Withey and Young again cleaned up the glass in a 68-67 double-overtime thriller.

*The 108-96 final from last night’s game in Iowa State will raise everyone’s eyebrow, but Kansas was the team that defended better inside the arc. The Cyclones were forced outside where they chucked up 41 treys and only shot 35 percent from the floor. I won’t go so far as to see that Withey and Young’s combined 26 points and 19 rebounds was the biggest point of the night—not when Johnson dropped 39—but the play of the frontcourt personnel for Kansas was certainly the factor that distinguished them from their opponent.

I like what I see in this Kansas team. The sustained effort by Withey and Young to control the glass, and the quality defense—holding good teams to sub-40 percent from the floor for two consecutive games—suggest that Self has gotten his team’s attention  and has them bringing the intensity. When the effort levels are there, the overall balanced lineup is a tough out for anyone.

Before we get to March Madness though, there’s still  the question of a regular season championship streak to keep going. Kansas is tied with Kansas State in the loss column, but the schedule works for KU—they’ll have easy home games with West Virginia and Texas Tech that set up a season-ending finale at talented, but inconsistent Baylor. It’s been a more interesting ride than normal for Kansas basketball this year, but it looks set for a familiar finish.

SPEAKING OF BAYLOR

When I did my regular Monday podcast yesterday with Greg DePalma at Prime Sports Network, we both unveiled our current field of 68 if the season were to end today. I had Baylor as the very last team in and wasn’t real happy about having to include the schizophrenic Bears. ESPN.com bracketologist Joe Lunardi has Baylor as his last team out.  This is about as pure a bubble team as you can imagine.

It’s also a team that can be very dangerous. Baylor’s got good interior personnel, with 7’1” freshman Isaiah Austin and power forward Cory Jefferson. The backcourt has an explosive scorer in Pierre Jackson, and they should be getting more than they are from playmaker A.J. Walton and three-point shooter Brady Heslip.

If Baylor puts it all together, they’re the one team that has the talent to match up with Kansas and that regular season finale—a Saturday night ESPN game at 6 PM ET on March could be about a championship for the Jayhawks and an NCAA bid for the Bears. I’m disgusted with the inconsistency and underachievement Baylor has shown, but there’s no denying what they could be if everything clicks at the right time.