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Kansas City Chiefs predictions

NFL Analysis: The Chiefs Turn The Page After A Nightmare Season

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The Kansas City Chiefs endured the worst 2012 season imaginable. The on-field performance was a disaster, as a team that TheSportsNotebook’s NFL analysis felt had dark-horse playoff potential ended up 2-14 and picking first in this past April’s NFL draft. And the season ended in tragedy, when linebacker Jovan Belcher shot his girlfriend and then himself. The Chiefs now look to move forward in 2013.

It’s the running game that will have to key any success on the offensive side of the ball. Jamaal Charles ran for over 1,500 last season and the Kansas City ground attack was one of the better ones in the league. The line has some promising young players on the interior, and they used that #1 overall draft pick on offensive tackle Eric Fisher.


The passing game is another question, and that’s what new head coach Andy Reid has to fix, as he looks for his own fresh start after his long tenure in Philadelphia came to an end last year. Reid went out and got Alex Smith on the free agent market. Smith was completing 70 percent of his passes in San Francisco last year when he got hurt and lost his job to Colin Kaepernick.

But Smith has never proven he can be an effective quarterback without Jim Harbaugh as his coach. Does that change in an environment where there’s not a lot in the way of quality targets? Dwayne Bowe is the best receiver on this team and he had less than 900 yards a year ago.

The biggest question I see with this offense is whether Reid’s strengths as a coach can coalesce with this team’s talent base. Reid is a solid football coach and particularly good at masterminding a finesse offensive gameplan. But Kansas City, as presently constituted, is best served by getting physical. Can Reid make the adjustment or can the passing game personnel step up?

Kansas City’s defense was bad last year, doing very little well, but they have some playmakers to build around. Tamba Hali at outside linebacker and Eric Berry at strong safety are each players you can unleash and see if they can create any action.

If Hali and Berry have good years, effective coaching can help the rest of the defense fall into place. The Chiefs were 25th in the NFL in points allowed last year, and I would at least look for them to move in the middle of the league.

The betting markets in Las Vegas are optimistic about Kansas City, with the Over/Under win prop showing a number of 7.5. That means you have to take a 2-14 team and bet that, at minimum, they become .500.

When I look at this team I can see it happening, and it certainly wouldn’t be unprecedented in today’s NFL. But acknowledging something is possible is different from betting on it, and I would have to still take the Under with Kansas City. 

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NFL Team Previews: Kansas City Chiefs

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The Kansas City Chiefs endured a rough year in 2011, getting hit by injuries right out of the gate, as three key players missed all or most of the season with torn ACLs. Then quarterback Matt Cassell struggled and got hurt. Then head coach Todd Haley was fired midstream. It added up to a year where the franchise regressed from its AFC West title in 2010 to a 7-9 record in 2011. Romeo Crennel is getting his second chance at a head coaching job now, and both he and his team are looking to make the most of a fresh opportunity.

OFFENSE: Kansas City GM Scott Pioli made fixing the offensive line a key priority and signed free-agent offensive tackle Eric Winston away from the Houston Texans. For an offense that wants to build around the run, this was essential, as is the development of second-year center Rodney Hudson who will get his first chance to start this year. This is not a great offensive line overall, but if Hudson is able to come through, the addition of Winston gives it the chance to be good enough to give running back Jamaal Charles the push he needs.

Charles is the biggest name of the players returning from torn ACLs, and Kansas City added Peyton Hillis on the free agent market to help out in goal-line situations and in general to share the load. Tight end Tony Moeaki is another IR returnee and overall they combine to give Cassell what he needs as far as a running game that can set tempo and a tight end who can bail him out on the inevitable 3rd-and-4 type situations that arise with such an offense. The receivers are up in the air right now. #1 target Dwayne Bowe is holding out and if he doesn’t return, the talented Jon Baldwin will have to assume greater responsibility in his second year in the league.

DEFENSE: The Chiefs are a 3-4 defense and they have the havoc-wreaking linebacker this scheme needs to reach maximum potential in the person of Tamba Hali. The rest of the linebacking corps is pretty good in its own right, with Derrick Johnson on the inside and Jovan Belcher a prime candidate for big improvement. The defensive front is better than you see on a lot of three-man lines, with Glenn Dorsey able to get to the passer. Kansas City drafted Dontari Poe in the first round this April to hold down the nose, but Poe has not looked good in preseason. Still, in the context of the overall front seven the prospect of Poe being a bust is more of a long-term problem than a short-term one.

The short-term problem is going to be the secondary. This unit will get a big boost with the return of Pro Bowler Eric Berry, the last of the ACL Three. But the corners are a cause for concern. Brandon Flowers is pretty good, but undersized, and he’d be better off as the #2 corner opposite a true lockdown cover guy. Instead he’s opposite Stanford Routt, who can be known for some undisciplined play. How well Flowers and Routt play—or at the very least how well the defensive guru Crennel disguises their shortcomings—is going to be a big part of whether Kansas City has a comeback year.

LAS VEGAS OVER/UNDER WIN PROJECTION: 8—This number makes sense, when you consider the team won seven games, gets all the injured players back and still beat then-undefeated Green Bay after Crennel had taken over the job on an interim basis. And in the interests of full disclosure, the Chiefs are a team I cover over at RantSports.com. I’m not a partisan Kansas City fan, but I am at the very least a sympathetic  observer. So you can weigh that as a factor when I say I feel pretty good about the Chiefs’ prospects in 2012. I won’t say the “Over” is a steal when the number is 8, but I think KC will win more than they lose and be a contender in the balanced AFC West.