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MLB Playoffs: Road Teams Advance On Wild-Card Friday

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The first-ever wild-card Friday for the MLB playoffs went down yesterday and the road teams held sway, as St. Louis beat Atlanta and Baltimore ousted Texas, thus earning their spots in the Division Series round that begins today. The talk in the media right now is about the disputed infield fly in Atlanta, and we’ll get that further down. But let’s start by briefly looking at the keys to the wins by the Cards & Orioles…

St. Louis 6 Atlanta 3: The Cardinals were opportunistic, while the Braves kicked the ball around and couldn’t get a key hit to save their lives—or in this case, their season. Kris Medlen pitched well enough to win for Atlanta and was staked to a 2-zip lead, but a huge error in the fourth inning by Chipper Jones, playing his final game, cut the lead to 2-1 and set up St. Loo with runners on second and third. In a situation the Braves would fail in most of the night, St. Louis got consecutive productive outs from Yadier Molina and David Freese to bring both runs home.

A Matt Holliday home run and a couple more Atlanta errors stretched it to 6-2, but now it was St. Louis’ time to start melting down. Setup man Mitchell Boggs never looked comfortable in the eighth, and there were runners on first and second with one out and the lead cut to 6-3. Then St. Louis shortstop Pete Kozma had a miscommunication with Holliday on ball at least sixty feet into left field and it fell. Only it was ruled an infield fly. The Cards were bailed out, and closer Jason Motte got out of the inning and then finished the game after Atlanta again got two on with two out. St. Louis now moves into a Division Series matchup with Washington that will begin on the banks of the Mississippi River on Sunday.

Baltimore 5 Texas 1: The Rangers had men on first and third with nobody out in the first inning. Even though Baltimore had scored first, the bottom half of the frame had the feel of what even those of us how picked the Birds were watching for—the quick strike by Texas. Only Josh Hamilton hit into a room service 4-6-3 double play, and even though the game was tied, Baltimore starter Joe Saunders dodged the bullet. It set a tone the rest of the night. Texas hit into two more double plays. Hamilton, playing possibly his final game as a Ranger went 0-for-4, wasting two-hit nights from Ian Kinsler and Elvis Andrus in front of him.

Saunders worked into the sixth inning and the Oriole bullpen took over from there, with great work from former Texas setup man Darren O’Day. Baltimore got the lead in the sixth and eventually pulled away with a mix of key hits and productive outs. Closer Jim Johnson made things a little interesting in the ninth, allowing Texas to load the bases with two outs and bringing David Murphy to the plate as the tying run. But Murphy hit a harmless fly ball to left. Baltimore’s going to the Division Series to play New York. Texas goes into a very long offseason. The two-time defending AL champs just lost four straight to the two Cinderella stories of 2012 in Oakland and Baltimore—a win in just one would have put them in the Division Series, either as AL West champ or wild-card winner. Hamilton has the look of someone looking to get out of town. We’ll have to see how the Texas front office responds to this meltdown.

Now, let’s double back to the National League game and focus on the infield fly. This was clearly an atrocious call—as in NFL replacement ref kind of bad. To be an infield fly, a ball has to require ordinary effort and its purpose—ironically in this case—is to protect the offense, so infielders can’t allow a ball to intentionally drop and turn a double play, or replace a fast baserunner with a  slow one. Neither situation applied here.

While the pop fly hit is certainly one you expect to turned into an out, the mere fact it was a situation where Holliday and Kozma had to decide whose ball it was eliminates that rationale. And while there’s no rule saying an infield fly can’t happen in the outfield grass, the fact it was sixty feet deep means a double play was not realistic.

Furthermore, there’s no reason to consider the miscommunication some huge shock—watch enough baseball games, you see it happen on either side of the outfield more than enough times every year. Finally, if you happened to see the play, just ask yourself this—of all the similar pop flies you’ve watched as a baseball fan, how often have you seen the rule applied that way? It’s a first for me.

So did the call cost Atlanta the game? We touched on the Braves’ self-induced mistakes above, so obviously they have to look in the mirror. But the eighth inning, even prior to this play, had the feel of the Cardinals being ready to do their own meltdown and they were bailed out of it. The only thing I could really give St. Louis fans is this—maybe this call can be a small down payment for Don Denkinger in the 1985 World Series. A small down payment.

The Division Series matchups of Oakland-Detroit and Cincinnati-San Francisco begin tonight at 6 PM ET on TBS with a doubleheader. By the end of the morning, TheSportsNotebook will have previews of both up by the end of the morning, and then look for previews of St. Louis-Washington & Baltimore-NY Yanks, which start on Sunday, to go up later on tonight.

Early American League All-Star Ballot

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Editor’s All-Star Introduction: The All-Star ballots have appeared at major league stadiums across the country, and TheSportsNotebook is ready to weigh in with the first of what will be three installments of tracking the All-Star race over the course of the season. The second update will come at the break itself and the third will come at the end of the season—why baseball, alone among major sports, completely ignores a complete All-Star vote at the end of the season, is beyond me.

Now a few notes about the way TheSportsNotebook sets up its ballot. It doesn’t mimic the one given out at MLB stadiums. I select a complete team—five starting two pitchers, two setup men and a closer. When outfielders are chosen, at least one has to be a legitimate centerfielder. Furthermore, the same criteria that is used for MVP selection—assessing a player’s value to his team, not just raw stats—are given the same consideration in this process, which I view as the first step in narrowing everything down to an MVP. Finally, what you see here is based strictly on production compiled to date. It’s not necessarily who I’d vote for to be in Kansas City in mid-July—I want more than six good weeks out of someone before I choose to watch them in the All-Star game. But, as mentioned at the top, I view this ballot as the first of a three-part show in choosing a season-ending All-Star team & MVP.

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TheSportsNotebook’s choices for the early lead  in the American League. Click here for the National League ballot.

C: Matt Wieters (Baltimore): An easy choice. Wieters is already the best offensive catcher in the American League, hitting .275 with eight home runs and showing solid discipline at the plate, while being the best everyday player for a team that would shock the world if the season ended today with them still tied for first. Candidates to watch as the season progresses include Carlos Santana in Cleveland and a familiar face in Minnesota’s Joe Mauer. Both are getting on base at proficient rates, but need to match Wieters in power.

 

1B: Paul Konerko (ChiSox): This one’s not even close. With an on-base percentage over. 400, a slugging percentage over .,500 and the status as the one reliable hitter in a shaky lineup, Konerko’s putting together an MVP season. His All-Star candidacy is made easier by the fact Mark Teixeira and Adrian Gonzalez have been in the tank, while Prince Fielder has been good, but not great.

2B: Dustin Pedroia (Boston): The offensive numbers are impressive enough–.378 on-base percentage and .517 slugging, but for the middle infield spots I give a greater weight to defensive range and the statistical metrics give Pedroia a substantial edge over Texas’ Ian Kinsler—an edge that’s been consistent throughout their careers—along with Cleveland’s Jason Kipnis. And even though Pedroia’s team is faring worse, by a measurement of true value he ranks higher—its offense that’s kept Boston even marginally afloat thus far and with Gonzalez slumping, and other key players hurt, a greater weight has fallen on Pedroia. He’s answered. And then there’s that whole thing about me being a Red Sox fan and liking him too, but I believe his candidacy would stand on its merits to an objective observer.

3B: Miguel Cabrera (Detroit): Cabrera’s offensive numbers trail Kansas City’s Mike Moustakas by a hair, and I can see this one going either way. Moustakas is also slightly higher on the defensive metrics—but believe it or not, Cabrera grades out well there, third among American League third basemen. I’m giving the Tiger player the edge though because he’s in a much more difficult park to hit and along with Prince Fielder he’s kept Detroit afloat in the early part of the season. If Moustakas can help key a Royal run to .500—something that would be the equivalent of Cabrera helping the Tigers make the playoffs—I can see flipping the order later on.

SS: Asdrubal Cabrera (Cleveland): Yes, I know Yankee fans are screaming bias that I passed over Derek Jeter. But look at the case for the Indian shortstop. He’s got a slightly higher OBP (.414 to .411), isn’t that far behind in slugging (.500 to .527) and is decisively better on defensive range. It’s the latter, Jeter’s big weakness over his career that spells the difference at a position where range means everything. Oh, and Cleveland’s a surprising first-place team at this writing, while New York’s a mildly disappointing third. Could this change over the course of a week? Sure. But I’m basing it on what’s true right now.

OF:  Josh Hamilton (Texas): The man’s hitting .400 with 18 home runs. This is where I save on the word count in this article and trust that it’s self-explanatory.

OF:  Austin Jackson (Detroit): In terms of raw numbers, there are others who are better, but given the difficulties of Detroit’s park to hit in and how much Jackson meant to the Detroit offense early, being the only one who could support Fielder and Cabrera and doing it to the tune of a .403 on-base percentage and solid power to the alleys (10 doubles and a .504 slugging) I think he deserves this spot over worthy candidates like Adam Jones in Baltimore and Josh Willingham in Minnesota.

OF: Curtis Granderson (NY Yanks): I hesitated a little bit because of how easy Yankee Stadium is to hit home runs in, but Granderson’s still got 12, and along with Jeter’s he’s carried the load on an offense where a good chunk of the lineup is still in a funk. Solid plate discipline makes up for a pedestrian .257 batting average—the walks elevate his OBP almost 100 points over that, the mark of a very selective hitter.  So both ends of the offseason trade in 2009 between New York and Detroit—Jackson and Granderson—are early front-runners in the All-Star race.

DH: Edwin Encarcion (Toronto): Purely on the numbers, both David Ortiz in Boston and Adam Dunn in Chicago are better and quite honestly that’s who I expect to end up battling for this spot by season’s end. But based on value to an offense right now, Encarcion has hit 11 home runs and slugged over .500 at a time when Jose Bautista has been in a slump and Encarcion’s bat has kept Toronto competitive in the rugged AL East. That’s a good definition of the most valuable criteria that animates our selection process at all levels.

STARTING ROTATION
Felix Hernandez (Seattle)
Justin Verlander (Detroit)
Jake Peavy (ChiSox)
Brandon Morrow (Toronto)
Jered Weaver (LA Angeles)

All the pitchers chosen have at least 50 innings under their belt and the lack of innings was the reason I left off solid candidates like Detroit’s Drew Smyly and Baltimore’s Wei Yin-Chen, both of whom have the ERAs to make a run at the top line at this position. King Feliz’s 59 innings are also the reason I’d list him as the top choice even though Peavy’s ERA is the best in the league. Verlander’s right behind at 58, but also a little bit higher ERA. Weaver’s 54 innings vaulted him past six other pitchers with lower ERAs. By the same token I was not prepared to consider pitchers with ERAs over 3, hence the exclusion of arms like Jason Vargas (Seattle), Ricky Romero (Toronto), James Shields (Tampa) and C.C. Sabathia (NY Yanks). But as the season wears on and the standard for ERA becomes a little lower I’d expect some in this group—particularly Sabathia—to end up in serious consideration for a spot.

BULLPEN
Setup: Ryan Cook (Oakland) & Alexi Ogando (Texas)
Closer:  Jim Johnson (Baltimore)
All Cook has done is pitch 17 innings without giving up a run. Ogando’s gone 18 innings with a 0.48 ERA. For short relievers this is very good inning volume and the sparkling ERAs made setup among the easiest picks on the board.  And it’s really a new era in the American League at closer. Mariano’s out for the year and possibly for good. Jonathan Papelbon, a likely heir apparent is now in Philadelphia. So it’s anybody’s ballgame. Johnson’s 11 saves are second-best in the AL, but unlike save leader Chris Perez in Seattle, Johnson hasn’t blown an opportunity and his ERA of 0.57 is substantially better. Fernando Rodney, just one save back of Johnson and an 0.54 ERA with Tampa is a candidate for this spot as well.

Early MVP Leader: Josh Hamilton—I’d like to have an anti-consensus choice, but I’m not going to do it when the consensus is so clearly the best. Over the long haul I would factor in against Hamilton that the lineup he hits in is absolutely stacked, a contrast to other worthy candidates like Konerko. But right now the Texas outfielder’s production is so mind-boggling that there is no other choice.

MLB March Report: Texas Rangers

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The Texas Rangers were an out from winning the World Series last year not once but twice and came up short. Can the two-time defending AL champs put that devastation from last October in St. Louis behind them and effectively make another run when division rival Los Angeles raided them for pitcher C.J. Wilson and then tacked on Albert Pujols? TheSportsNotebook sizes up the Rangers based on our regular quartet of measuring sticks—the ability to get on base, hit for power, starting pitching and relief pitching.

THE ABILITY TO GET ON BASE: Elvis Andrus the one best suited to be the instigator for the offense, having stolen 30-plus bases in all three of his major league seasons. The 23-year-old shortstop does a nice job getting on base with a .340 OBP, although if he’s to become a top leadoff hitter, he should realistically add 10-15 points to that number. Michael Young hit .338 last year and even if he doesn’ t hit for that average again the veteran DH has always had a good batting eye that ensures he’ll help keep flow moving on the basepaths. Ian Kinsler is consistent for a .350-plus OBP and left fielder David Murphy hovers close to that number as well. You can pick nits with each player individually if you want, but collectively there is no denying that Texas can keep the basepaths active for the big guns in its lineup.

POWER: Josh Hamilton and Nelson Cruz are the proverbial straw that stirs the drink for this offense, to borrow a phrase once used by Reggie Jackson. Hamilton had his offseason problems with the booze, but he’s still coming off a year where he had a .346/.536 OBP/Slugging line, including 25 home runs. That’s with missing a month on the DL and that’s coming off an even better year in 2010 when he won the MVP. Is it safe to say Hamilton’s a stud and the only question is how great he’ll be? I think it’s safe to say. Cruz has the power, slugging over .500 consistently. His ability to hit for contact can fluctuate wildly, but even in a worst-case scenario you’ve got a good batting eye and a long ball threat. What you don’t have is a defensive rightfielder as his ill-fated attempts to corral the last out of Game 6 in St. Louis year demonstrate, but that’s another topic entirely. Ron Washington can also rely on catcher Mike Napoli, third baseman Adrian Beltre and get a little pop from Murphy as well. Napoli had a huge year in 2011, but if he doesn’t repeat his .414/.631 line, he’s still good for 20-plus home runs. Beltre’s hit sixty bombs over the last two seasons. The wild-card here is first baseman Mitch Moreland. He showed promise in limited duty in 2010 and the organization’s trade of Chris Davis to Baltimore has cleared out any competition at first base for 2012. But Moreland’s season last year was a disappointment. The Rangers believe it was mechanical, and given Moreland’s only 25 that sounds reasonable.

STARTING PITCHING: Free agency has taken its toll here. It was Cliff Lee leaving after 2010, now Wilson is gone for this season. Hence the hype over Texas winning the bidding for 25-year-old free agent Yu Darvish from Japan. If the Rangers are going to compete at the high level they’ve been at for the last two seasons, they need Darvish to be “all that”, because there’s no natural ace in this staff. Colby Lewis is a tough, likeable workhorse whose piled up 200 innings a year during the two pennant drives, but his ERA jumped from 3.72 to 4.40 last year. Which is fine if you can settle him in the middle of the rotation. Derek Holland shows a lot of promise at 25, and his first year as a regular starter last season saw him go 16-5 with a 3.95 ERA. Matt Harrison is another comer, going 14-9 with a 3.39 ERA in thirty starts. If Darvish is elite, Holland & Harrison would fit in well behind him, then Lewis is perfect as an innings-eater at #4. The final starter is the interesting one with Neftali Feliz coming from the bullpen. Feliz closed 72 of 81 chances over the last two seasons, and I don’t like this move to mess around with him as a starter. You know he can close, and you know he can close big games. Why are Nolan Ryan and Ron Washington doing this?

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RELIEF PITCHING: The Feliz to the rotation move becomes even stranger when you consider what a big question mark the bullpen is. Joe Nathan was once one of the game’s best in Minnesota, but repeated elbow problems have left him a shadow of his former self. He closed 14 of 17 chances with the Twins last year, but the ERA was 4.84 and at age 37 I would be shocked if he’s up to the task of closing for a team with World Series aspirations. Mike Adams, acquired from San Diego at the trade deadline last year would be a better choice, and in fact may get the ninth-inning gig if Nathan stumbles early. For the past two years he’s made 70+ appearances with an ERA slightly over 2.70. Presuming this whole Feliz-to-the-rotation nonsense is going to persist, I’d just make Adams the closer right now. And the pitcher I’d move back to the rotation would be Alexi Ogando. He got off to a blazing start last year, hit some speed bumps, but finished with a 3.51 ERA in 29 starts while pitching in a hitter-friendly ballpark. I just don’t get why Ryan and Washington are messing around with these rotation-bullpen shuttles. In this case, we at least know Ogando can pitch well in either role, and he joins Mark Lowe as a key part of the setup team. If Koji Uehara still has gas in the tank at 36, that can be a big difference , but I have my doubts. He fell apart after coming over from Baltimore at the trade deadline.

LAS VEGAS OVER/UNDER WIN TOTAL: 92—This number makes sense. Since Washington has been the manager the team’s win totals have been 75-79-87-90-96. That’s as impressive a trajectory as there is anywhere in sports, much less just baseball. But it seems realistic to think they  finally hit the ceiling a year ago, and then suffered the loss of Wilson and saw the Angels get better. If Darvish, Holland and Harrison all have good years, it’s certainly realistic to think about 97 wins and continued improvement, but that’s a lot to break right. I just have my doubts about where this team’s psyche is at right now after the heartbreak in St. Louis and as noted above, I have extreme doubts about the personnel decisions being made in the spring. I see an 88-90 win team here, so I’m taking the Under.