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AFC Championship Game Preview

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The AFC Championship Game between Baltimore and New England kicks off at 3:00 PM EST on CBS, with Jim Nantz and Phil Simms in Foxboro for the coverage. It’s the Patriots first time in the AFC title game since their undefeated season of 2007, while the Ravens were last here in 2008, when they lost on the road to the Steelers. This is a battle of the conference’s top two seeds in this year’s playoffs.

To understand how they matchup, we’ll look at how each team’s running and passing game matches up with the opposing defenses, starting with New England…

Patriot Running Game: The problems the Patriots have had in the running game can be understood by looking back to last Saturday night’s game against Denver. Bill Belichick unveiled a wrinkle where tight end Aaron Hernandez would get the ball coming around the side and it worked three different times. It’s an example of how Belichick always comes up with the right tactical move, but it’s also a mark of how lousy your running game is when you have to do this kind of gimmick in the playoffs. New England ranks toward the bottom of the AFC in yards-per-carry, while the Raven defense is the conference’s best at stopping the run.

New England doesn’t have a clear go-to back, sharing time between Danny Woodhead and BenJarvus Green-Ellis and their offensive line is built to protect Brady—an inherently passive act, where you stay on your heels—as opposed to the more aggressive act of drive-blocking at the line of scrimmage. All things being equal, there is zero reason to think New England can run the ball on Sunday.

Patriot Passing Game: With the best quarterback of my generation (I’m almost 42) behind center, the Pats produced the AFC’s most prolific pass offense, despite not having a deep threat. Brady excels at pinpointing his tight ends, Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski, along with West Welker underneath. Deion Branch is a veteran on the flank, who might be limited by a knee injury, though he is expected to play.

Baltimore’s pass rush is excellent, with Terrell Suggs being a havoc-wreaker on the edge, and Haloti Ngata, one of the game’s best down lineman, and able to get pressure in a 3-4 scheme. The corners are still a little bit of a problem for Baltimore, but nearly to the extent they had been in recent years, thanks to the ballhawking Lardarius Webb on the corner. And in this space last week I said never to count out veteran Ed Reed, even his big-play skills are noticeably down at this stage of his career. You don’t bet against crafty vets in big spots and Reed made the game-clinching interception last week. Granted, that was T.J. Yates and this is Tom Brady. But it still underscores that while the Patriots merit an edge here, it might not be overwhelming enough to offset problems in other areas.

Ravens Running Game: Baltimore can muscle you on the ground with Ray Rice and I don’t understand commentators who talk about the need to open up the offense. To my mind, the Ravens have problems when they try and finesse opponents rather than just running them over. Rice runs well between the tackles and catches the ball out of the backfield.

The New England rush defense is mediocre at best, and there’s going to be tremendous pressure on tackle Vince Wolfork to have the game of his life and control the interior. The run to Baltimore is what the pass is to New England—they’re going to do it well and win this battle. But how decisively they need to control this area is the real question.

Ravens Passing Game: The talk all season has been whether Joe Flacco can win a big game when the running game and defense alone won’t be enough to carry him. Now he’s in that spot. I’d say he can permanently silence critics, but in a media culture where even Brady is still seen as having something to prove, there’s no such thing as permanent silence. But there is an opportunity for Flacco to do something special here. New England’s top pass rusher, Andre Carter, has been out for several weeks and the Pats pressure isn’t the same without him. The Patriots secondary ranks last in the AFC in yards allowed.

What New England does do well on pass defense is force interceptions. They’re the AFC’s best team at picking off the ball.  Flacco, on the other hand, excels at avoiding mistakes. What’s going to happen in the red zone? Can Flacco target a big receiver like Anquan Boldin over the middle or his tight end Ed Dickson. Can the Ravens’ take shots down the field to Torrey Smith without turning the ball over? I think this particular area is where the AFC Championship will be decided.

If you look at these matchups, it seems plain to me that this is an even football game. Which is why I was stunned to see the Patriots open at (-7.5) last Sunday night, and if you want to bet the Ravens straight –up you could get odds of 2.8 to 1. That’s come down a little bit. It’s now an even (-7) with the odds at 2.5 to 1, but I know if I were in the Bellagio on Sunday I’d bet 55% of my bankroll on the Ravens with the spread and the other 45% on the straight-up win (Of course this would be after I’d paid my regards to Terry Benedict, portrayed by Andy Garcia in the remake  of Oceans 11).

At the start of the season I picked a Ravens-Patriots AFC championship game with Baltimore going to the Super Bowl. A friend of mine implored me not to change course now. While my heart is with New England and the good fans of Foxboro that I share baseball, NBA and hockey territory with, my head says Baltimore is going to win this game. In baseball, the Orioles knocked the Red Sox out of the playoffs. In football, the Ravens will knock the Pats out of the Super Bowl. Let’s call this one 24-20 Baltimore.

 

NFL Playoff Memories: 2nd Round

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The divisional playoffs are the most fun weekend in the NFL. Unlike wild-card weekend, all the best teams are in action and usually at least 5-6 teams playing have realistic Super Bowl hopes. I’ve compiled eight memories from this round of competition. The selections are based on the history of the teams playing, and aren’t necessarily the best games (for example, the epic 2001 “Tuck Rule” game where New England beat Oakland in the snow isn’t here). But all have their own special place in history. Included with each recollection is a YouTube selection related to the game…

1985: New England 27 LA Raiders 20: Back in the days when the Raiders were still in Los Angeles, and Hollywood had two teams rather than none, the Patriots were a lightly regarded #5 seed who had upset the Jets in the first game, but seen as unlikely to do further damage. What the NFL world wanted to see was Marcus Allen’s Raiders play Dan Marino’s Dolphins for the AFC Championship. But the Raiders turned it over six times, including three interceptions from mediocre quarterback Marc Wilson. The game was still tied 20-20 in the third quarter, when LA’s Sam Seale fumbled a kickoff. The ball bounced back towards the end zone where New England’s Jim Bowman recovered it for the game’s final points. One week later the ’85 Pats became the first team to win three straight road playoff games when they beat Miami. Check out the video tribute to that historic playoff run…

1989: Denver 24 Pittsburgh 23: Denver was after its third AFC title in four years and held the top seed in this year’s playoffs. Pittsburgh had scraped its way into the playoffs and then upset the Houston Oilers in overtime in the wild-card round. Current ESPN analyst Merril Hoge was brilliant in this postseason for Pittsburgh and had compiled 180 all-purpose yards today. Pittsburgh led 17-10 and after a John Elway TD pass tied it, Pittsburgh launched consecutive drives into the red zone, but had to settle for field goals both times. That would prove to be the difference as Elway drove his team 71 yards for the winning score. The Denver quarterback and current team president was the hottest star in the Rocky Mountains then and one of the hottest in the nation. Which is why it disturbs me that this commercial was actually seen as cutting-edge. Were we that much in the Dark Ages back then…

1991: Denver 26 Houston 24: Elway is remembered for his epic drive to win the 1986 AFC Championship Game, but his performance in this game is right up there with it. The Oilers jumped out to a 14-0 lead behind two quick touchdown passes from Warren Moon and still led 21-6 in the first half and 24-16 in the fourth quarter. There was no two-point conversion in the NFL at this time, so this was a two-possession game. An 80-yard drive led by Elway cut the lead to a point. He then got the ball back on his own two, converted a pair of fourth downs and set up a game-winning field goal. The entire drive is preserved on YouTube…

1992: San Francisco 20 Washington 13: I remember watching this game at the bar where a friend was having her college graduation party. It was a sloppy affair throughout, as both teams turned it over four times and the ‘Skins were unable to cash in the opportunities top-seeded Frisco kept handing them. Mark Rypien fumbled a snap when driving a potential lead touchdown in the fourth quarter, and when San Fran led 20-13 late, Ricky Sanders dropped a 3rd-and-17 pass around midfield. Since I made you read the perspective of a Redskins fan, the video is compiled as a 49er highlight. Listen to at least the first couple minutes and you’ll hear John Madden in rare form…

2006: New Orleans 27 Philadelphia 24: The Saints were looking for their first-ever trip to an NFC Championship Game. The game was back-and-forth throughout and New Orleans was looking to put the game away on a drive down to the Philly 35. A high pitch from Drew Brees to Reggie Bush resulted in a fumble and the Eagles recovered. They couldn’t do anything with their new life though and punted it away, and New Orleans killed the last 1:57 on the clock. The signature player in this game wasn’t Brees, Bush or Donovan McNabb. It was NOR running back Deuce McAllister, who rushed for 143 yards on 21 carries. The video below is taken at the game from a fan with good seats that lets you soak up the post-game celebration in the Big Easy…

2007: Green Bay 42 Seattle 20: The Packers were the #2 seed and hosting the Seattle Seahawks. It had been  nine years since Mike Holmgren left Green Bay to run his own operation in Seattle, but there was still something special about having Brett Favre’s first mentor in the house for a game of this magnitude. The field was covered in snow and it didn’t start well for the Packers. Running back Ryan Grant fumbled the first play from scrimmage, resulting in a Seahawk touchdown. He fumbled the ensuing kickoff and suddenly it was 14-0. But Grant, Favre and the rest of the Packers got into gear quickly. Grant rushed for over 200 yards. Favre threw three touchdown passes, and it was 28-17 by halftime and the Pack was never challenged in the second half. The video below shows a Green Bay fan from California longing to be in the snow-covered Midwest…

2007: NY Giants 21 Dallas 17: Dallas was the top seed and looking to reach the NFC Championship Game for the first time since 1995. They did a good job containing the Giant running game, and Tony Romo led two touchdown drives of 90-plus yards in the first half. Those drives were sandwiched between a pair of Eli Manning scoring strikes and it was 14-14 at half. Dallas got a 17-14 lead, but New York got in the end zone with 2:27 left and then held off Romo’s last drive, as R.W. McQuarters intercepted him in the end zone. The biggest difference in the game though, was 11 Dallas penalties. In the video below, a Cowboy fan gives a post-game speech that makes you wonder what’s become of his life since…

2008: Baltimore 13 Tennessee 10: The #1 seed Titans controlled the line of scrimmage, rushing for 116 yards and holding the Ravens to 50. Kerry Collins outpassed rookie Joe Flacco 275-161. But it was the veteran Collins, not the rookie Flacco, who kept making the big mistakes. Collins fumbled a snap and threw an interception to stop drives deep into Baltimore territory and that was the difference in the game, as Raven kicker Matt Stover hit a 43-yard field goal with less than a minute to play. See the enthusiastic fans greet the team as they arrive in their complex at Owings Mills, the town on the northwest side of the city where I used to work…

NFL 2nd Round: Sunday Previews

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Sunday’s NFL second-round games start with Houston-Baltimore (1 PM ET, CBS) and conclude with NY Giants-Green Bay (4:30 PM ET, Fox). You can scroll down one post for the previews of Saturday’s games (New Orleans-San Francisco & Denver-New England). Here’s how the Notebook sees Sunday…

Houston-Baltimore: This game reminds me a lot of the 2008 AFC playoffs when the Ravens were coming off a first-round win and going on the road to Tennessee. They pulled out a 16-13 win and made the AFC Championship Game. Now it’s Houston coming off a win and bringing a rookie quarterback on the road and hoping the run game and defense can carry him to an upset.

I’ve heard people who follow the NFL closely say that this Baltimore defense is not as good as it’s been in recent years and that the Raven D is living on past reputation. I understand where they’re coming from, but I don’t agree—or at the very least, I think it overstates the point. While it’s true Ray Lewis and Ed Reed aren’t the game-changers they used to be, the Baltimore defense still ranks 3rd in the NFL in points allowed. Terrell Suggs is a game-changer at outside linebacker with 14 sacks and they’re better on the corners then has been the case in recent seasons. I don’t think we’ll see a blown coverage down the sideline like we did last year in Pittsburgh when Ben Roethlisberger hit a bomb on 3rd-and-18 in the waning minutes to set up the winning touchdown. Furthermore, Reed and Lewis strike me as the kind of veterans who, even though they’re well past their prime, find a way to make a big play at the biggest time. It’s kind of like watching Curt Schilling or Andy Pettite go to the mound, or when an aging Larry Bird or Magic Johnson were on the floor (see video below). Dramatic moments weren’t a daily part of life anymore, but the vets could still gut it up at crunch time.

There’s going to be a tremendous battle at the line of scrimmage when Houston has the ball, because the Texans’ rush game is outstanding, with both Arian Foster and Ben Tate able to run both inside and out. If Houston can win this battle, and left tackle Duane Brown can keep Suggs from going crazy, Houston will have a chance to run a safe no-mistakes offense and then see if they can get Andre Johnson open down the field in play-action.

Houston’s defense is extremely good in their own right. As with most 3-4 defenses, they get their heat from the linebacking spots, especially Conner Barwin on the outside. One factor not to overlook is how their ends, J.J. Watts and Antonio Smith can come up with some pressure as well, a difficult thing for an end to do in a three-man front. It’s going to be important for Baltimore to get Ray Rice established and keep this aggressive defense at home. If I were the Ravens, there would be some draws, traps and other misdirection plays to keep Houston on its heels. What Baltimore can’t do is can’t overly creative with their offensive game plan and decide they have to throw the ball to win. That’s going to be tempting, because there’s a lot of pressure on the Ravens at home and teams under a lot of heat and favored solidly to win don’t necessarily like being in a dogfight. But if Baltimore gets away from Rice and tries to force things to Torrey Smith downfield, it’s going to give Houston a tremendous opportunity for the sacks and interceptions they need to win.

Baltimore is favored by 7.5, an absurdly high line. I understand T.J. Yates is a rookie quarterback on the road who’s only beaten Cincinnati (both regular season and postseason) in his career. But when you run the ball like Houston does, have a defense like they do and a game-breaking receiver like they do, you should never be that type of an underdog. The Over/Under is a low 36, so we can project out the Vegas final score as being in the 21-14 range. The total sounds right, and I see Baltimore winning, but it will be closer than the experts say.

 

NY Giants-Green Bay: The Giants played the Packers better than anyone outside Kansas City this year (the one game Green Bay lost) and they won the 2007 NFC title game (see a great ground-level shot of the decisive interception in that game in the video below) here in frigid conditions. Combine that with New York winning its final two games of the year to make the playoffs and then hammering Atlanta last week, and you have people believing an upset is in the works. We should note that the smart money in Las Vegas is not as taken, and the current line is Green Bay (-8), a huge number for a playoff game against a team with New York money behind it, and the Over/Under is 52.5. Will the final score be roughly 30-21 Green Bay? Let’s take a look…

Both defenses allow opposing offenses to routinely drive the field, so this game is going to be settled in the red zone, or by who can get the most big strikes over the top. The matchup of Giant receivers Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks against the Packer corners of Charles Woodson and Tramon Williams is an absolutely huge battle. All four players have shown themselves capable of the big play and any hope New York has of an upset has to start here. No matter how well your defense plays, you are not going to stop Aaron Rodgers and if the Giants are going to put 31-35 points on the board and steal a win, Cruz and Nicks need to be seen running in space for a long time after the catch. On the flip side if notorious ballhawks Woodson and Williams get it going back the other way, that (-8) line is going to look small by early evening in Wisconsin.

When we go to the other side of the ball, it’s the interior that matters most. Green Bay must keep Rodgers upright against a pass rush where Jason Pierre-Paul, with his 16.5 sacks comes off the edge, Justin Tuck can still cause problems on the other side and Chris Canty comes up the middle. For a team that’s had pass protection problems all year, this is an awfully good front four to have to deal with. What the Packers have going for them is the extraordinary combination of Mike McCarthy’s ability to get receivers open on short notice and Rodgers pinpoint precision in finding the right one and delivering the ball. It’s asking a lot of #12, but he’s capable of winning this game even if the protection collapses, especially now that Greg Jennings is back in the lineup at wideout

The running game for both teams is a huge question mark. The Giants did a great job last week as Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw woke up the echoes of 2007. But should that wipe out an entire year of poor production on the ground?  Green Bay got its running game going for the playoffs last year, but is it asking too much for McCarthy to suddenly dial it up at the right time again. In both cases, I’m not expecting much from either team on the ground, but this is an area where the pendulum could swing to other an NYG upset or a Green Bay blowout.

But there’s no bigger X-factor in this game than Green Bay tight end Jermichael Finley, a big and fast tight end who can dazzle and frustrate, sometimes within the same play. I like Finley and he’s impossible for anyone to match up with when he’s playing well—too fast for linebackers, too big for strong safeties. While New York presents an intriguing matchup that the 15-1 Packers would probably have preferred to avoid, I think Green Bay has too many playmakers. I’ll take them to win and cover, in a 35-24 final.