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The Baltimore Ravens Remain One Of The NFL’s Most Interesting Questions

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The Baltimore Ravens promised to be one of the more interesting teams in the NFL in 2013. After their dramatic Super Bowl run of 2012, the Ravens said goodbye to eighteen players, including the team’s heart and soul, in linebacker Ray Lewis. The captain retired and other key veterans like Ed Reed, Paul Kruger and Anquan Boldin went elsewhere, as the team had to pour significant salary cap dollars into retaining quarterback Joe Flacco, who was going into free agency.

Talent evaluators still felt that the ’13 Ravens would be a better team–Lewis and Reed were clearly at the end of the line, their main value being leadership rather than talent at this stage of their careers. The question was going to be whether talent could trump intangibles.


So far, the answer is no. Baltimore is 5-6 as they get set to host hated AFC North rival Pittsburgh on Thanksgiving night. But there’s enough good going on with this team, and after their sudden turnaround in December of last season, the Ravens remain as interesting a team as there is. Let’s take a look at what they need to do down the stretch.

The team as a whole might miss the leadership of Lewis & Reed, but that’s not being reflected in the defensive performance. The Ravens continue to play solid defense, ranking seventh in the NFL in points allowed. They’re a little susceptible to the big play, but that’s a byproduct of a defensive outlook that forces a lot of incompletions (6th in completion percentage allowed), has a great pass rush and shuts down the run.

Taken in that context, a ranking of 19th in yards allowed per pass is a pretty reasonable price to pay. Baltimore is having success turning outside linebackers Terrell Suggs and Elvis Dumervil loose. If the only way to beat a team is to throw the ball downfield, that’s a difficult thing to pull off in December conditions with a hard pass rush bearing down on you.


It’s the offense that’s been a complete train wreck. The line has been terrible. Marked by instability on the left side, the Ravens can’t protect Flacco, nor can they clear any space for Ray Rice and Bernard Pierce. Without time to throw, Flacco can’t use his accuracy on the deep ball and his receiving threats in Jacoby Jones and Torrey Smith.

There’s no statistical category where this offense is anything less than poor. In a purely football sense, Flacco can’t be blamed–when there’s no time to throw and no running game, you can’t get anything done. But Flacco was rather vocal last offseason about maximizing his contract, even if it meant the organization would be hamstrung under the salary cap. If he comes in for some heat now that he’s not carrying the team singlehandedly, he’s asked for it.

But Flacco was inconsistent through much of last season, before turning in a brilliant run in the postseason. The same opportunity is still ahead. Baltimore is one of six teams that are tied for the AFC’s final playoff spot at 5-6. After Thursday night, they’ve got another home game with Minnesota, so getting to 7-6 is very reasonable.

December 16 is when the stretch drive gets tough. Baltimore makes a Monday Night visit to Detroit and they close the season with a road game in AFC North-leading Cincinnati. In between will be a hyped game with New England, the rematch of the last two AFC Championship Games and currently scheduled in the prime-time Sunday night slot.

The Baltimore Ravens remain interesting. I’m sure though, that head coach John Harbaugh would like to replace “interesting” with “unequivocally successful.” The decisive moment for answering all his team’s preseason question marks is rapidly arriving.

Super Bowl Preview: Baltimore-San Francisco

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The journey that began officially on a Wednesday night back in September, when two soon-to-be disappointments in the Cowboys & Giants kicked off the NFL season, comes to an end Sunday evening in New Orleans, as the Baltimore Ravens and San Francisco 49ers meet in the Super Bowl. We’ll preview this game with the same format that’s been used throughout the postseason—break down the matchup itself, look at some historical context, examine betting lines and then make a prediction.

THE MATCHUP: Colin Kaepernick’s tremendous athleticism against the savvy experience of the Baltimore defense is about as compelling of an in-game subplot the Super Bowl has seen in a while. You’ve got Ray Lewis, Terrell Suggs and Ed Reed, all at or in the declining phases of their careers, but still with tremendous football savvy and intelligence. Can they, first of all, keep quarterback Colin Kaepernick in the pocket, and second of all, force him into making mistakes.

I don’t have much doubt Baltimore can do the former. Most NFL defenses, if they’re really committed to containment, can do it and I don’t see the Ravens having mental breakdowns on the edges. The second issue is a little tougher. I thought the 49er quarterback would get some road jitters in the NFC Championship Game at Atlanta and he didn’t. This is a much bigger stage of course, but Kaepernick has proven he can stay cool in pressure situations. It’s going to require maximum discipline, to take what the Baltimore defense gives him.

The other challenge the Baltimore defense faces is stopping Frank Gore between the tackles, and preventing Michael Crabtree or Vernon Davis from getting free down the field. If Gore establishes the inside running game, it can draw the Ravens’ focus to the box, and thereby create room for Kaepernick outside. And while the Baltimore bend-but-don’t-break defense worked to perfection against New England in the AFC Championship Game, Crabtree stretches the field better than anyone the Patriots have, and Davis gives San Francisco another game-breaker that New England was missing when Rob Gronkowski went down.

What it boils down to is this—San Francisco is a complete offensive team and the most Baltimore can do is to create a flow of play where the 49ers have to do long drives, thus giving them opportunities to beat themselves. And when the Ravens get a chance to make a play defensively—be it a turnover or a sack, they’ve got to do it.

Now let’s flip over to the side when Baltimore’s got the ball. The matchup here is almost as interesting, although from a storytelling standpoint there’s not as much nuance to it, which is why it’s getting less space. But this basically boils down to whether the Raven offensive line can keep Joe Flacco upright in the pocket and give him the time to get downfield to Torrey Smith and find Anquan Boldin on mid-range routes.

The 49er defensive front seven has a great reputation, while the Raven offensive line does not, but current form suggests the opposite. San Francisco’s been having problems getting to the quarterback in the playoffs—an issue that cropped up once defensive end Justin Smith got hurt at the end of the year, even though he’s been playing at less than full strength in the postseason. Aldon Smith, he of 19.5 sacks, has also been less a factor in January. Meanwhile, the Baltimore offensive line went through some position adjustments and the pass protection for Flacco has been superb in the playoffs, including against a very good defensive front seven in Denver.

What it boils down to is this—if the 49ers don’t put Flacco on his back, or at least make him move his feet a lot, the Baltimore quarterback is going to make big plays down the field and he’s got a good option at tight end in Dennis Pitta. And lest I forget the words I’ve probably written about every Baltimore game for several years now—make sure Ray Rice gets the ball and gets it a lot. I know it’s going to be tempting to air it out, especially if the Niners stop Rice’s first few carries. But keep giving the running back the ball and Flacco can build off that.

HISTORICAL CONTEXT: San Francisco goes to tie Pittsburgh for the all-time record for Super Bowl victories with number six. Another story that’s somehow gotten hidden is that the city of San Francisco is going for the 2012 World Series-Super Bowl Parlay, along with the Giants. That’s a parlay that Baltimore knows what it feels like to win (1970 Orioles-Colts). It’s only happened three other times, in 1979, 1986 and 2004. Oh, and if you haven’t heard, this is Ray Lewis’ last game and it’s the first time ever that two brothers have been the opposing head coaches in the Super Bowl.

THE VIEW FROM VEGAS: The standard line, used as the basis for predicting in this space, is showing San Francisco (-3.5) with an Over/Under of 47.5. You can still get an extra half-point on either number if you want the dog or the under, depending which book you look at. The money has clearly come in on Baltimore, as the 49ers opened at (-5). I’ve seen reports that suggest it may move back up over the weekend, with most of the general public betting late and the feeling that they will prefer the 49ers.

PREDICTION: There are two key questions to ask—which team wins if both play their best. And which team is most likely to leave its fans scratching their heads in frustration. For the past several years, Baltimore has been the answer to both questions in lot of matchups. This year that’s not the case. As the Raven defense gets older, their upside on a game-to-game basis isn’t as high, but they’ve stopped shooting themselves in the foot. San Francisco is the team that controls its destiny—if they play their best, no one in the NFL is as complete a team. But with a young quarterback, the Super Bowl stage, a kicker who’s been in a slump…who knows.

So do you play the upside or do you play steadiness? Bob Knight once said that victory favors the team making the fewest mistakes. In that light, I’m taking Baltimore to win outright, 24-21.

PLAYOFF HANDICAPPING RECORD
Outright Winners: 6-3
Pointspread Winners: 6-1-2
Totals Line: 5-4
*Did not pick Washington-Seattle, citing Redskins’ fan bias.