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Jimmie Johnson Sprint Cup chances

NASCAR Sprint Cup Series: Johnson’s Long Road Back To Phoenix

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What a difference eight months make. The last time the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series was at Phoenix International Speedway was early March, and TheSportsNotebook’s preview of the race focused on the desperation of Jimmie Johnson.  The driver had just been docked 25 points for illegalities in the parts he was using and was in an early points hole. The penalty was eventually repealed, Johnson recovered and as the drivers return to Phoenix for Sunday’s Advocare 500 (2 PM ET, ESPN), JJ is holding a seven-point lead for the Sprint Cup with only two races left.

Furthermore, Phoenix has been kind to Johnson. From 2007-08 he won three consecutive races here. This is a track whose structure is designed to make side-by-side driving—and therefore passing—easier and Johnson has found success in the fluid environment. Finally, JJ is hot—he won last Sunday and the Sunday prior to put himself in position to secure a championship.

Brad Keselowski is still in prime striking distance at seven points out—keep in mind that Johnson wiped out a seven-point lead two weeks ago with the first of his consecutive wins, so even if Keselowski just holds even, he’d have a legitimate chance next week.

Beyond the leaders, the real race is for the top five. We can give Clint Bowyer third place and Kasey Kahne fourth—it would take something extremely dramatic for two consecutive weeks to move either drive up or down. But the battle for the final berth in the Top 5 is tight. Matt Kenseth and Jeff Gordon are tied for fifth, Denny Hamlin is only a point back, while Tony Stewart, Martin Truex and Greg Biffle have reasonable shots. Hamlin won here at Phoenix back in March, while Gordon won two of the ten races run here from 2007-11.

It’s been a long road for Johnson these last eight months, but the end is in sight. If he puts any more distance between himself and Keselowski, we’ll have an anticlimactic finale next Sunday.

NASCAR Chase For The Cup: Two Drivers Left

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The NASCAR Chase For The Cup has been realistically down to two drivers—Jimmie Johnson and Brad Keselowski for a few weeks, even if TheSportsNotebook has been manufacturing ways to give other drivers a chance. But as Sunday’s AAA Texas 500 (2 PM ET, ESPN) awaits, there’s no denying that JJ and Keselowski are the only ones standing with three races to go.

Johnson’s win last week in Martinsville vaulted him from seven points back to a two-point lead. Clint Bowyer and Kasey Kahne are in third and fourth place respectively, and their margin of 26 & 29 points is simply too much to overcome. I suppose there’s always the “in the event of a massive disaster from the leaders” theory, but at this point it would have to be something truly incredible for anyone other than Johnson or Keselowski to get the Cup in three weeks.

Texas Motor Speedway, hosting its second race of the season, is a cookie-cutter track, according to TheSportsNotebook’s resident NASCAR expert, my brother Bill. “It’s a fast track, somewhat easy to pass,” he added, offering some hope that we might see a fluid race in Fort Worth on Sunday.

The strongest record of success at this venue in recent years belongs to Denny Hamlin, who swept both of 2010’s races.  Hamlin is in a tight race with Jeff Gordon for the final spot in the Top 5 and its possible Martin Truex, Matt Kenseth or Greg Biffle—who won at this track in April—could sneak into fifth.

Kahne is poised to wrap up his highest finish ever, while Bowyer could tie his previous high if he holds on to third. But there’s no doubt that in the race for the top prize, the Chase For The Cup mimics the presidential race—it’s going to be one of two men and it’s looking like a virtual dead heat.

NASCAR Chase For The Cup: A Tighter Race Goes To Kansas

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If recent history at the Kansas Speedway is any guide, we should see some type of significant movement in the NASCAR Chase For The Cup. The track that hosts Sunday’s Hollywood Casino 400 (1 PM ET, ESPN) has seen recent winners that include all the current leaders and a few of the longshot contenders.

Brad Keselowski, who won one of the two races run here in 2011, is still the leader with five races to go, but his lead was cut in half by Jimmie Johnson, who now trails him by just seven points. Denny Hamlin moved to within fifteen points—still a ways to go, but he’s got a puncher’s chance. And Clint Bowyer, who won last week in Charlotte is still close enough to dream of a miracle finish at 23 points out.

“It came down to a fuel mileage race,” said TheSportsNotebook’s NASCAR consultant, my brother Bill. He went on to explain that this is a race where the drivers aren’t in position to make pit stops and victory ends up going to he who manages his remaining fuel better. Keselowski didn’t and allowed other drivers back into the championship picture.

Sunday’s race may come down to something similar. “It should be a fast track,” Bill told TheSportsNotebook. “But it’s a cookie-cutter, so there’s not a lot of unique characteristics.” The bland structure of the track doesn’t lend itself to anything crazy happening, but as we saw last week in Charlotte, that’s not necessary to tighten things up.

Hamlin won an April race held at this same venue and a win on Sunday puts him right back near the top. Johnson joined Keselowski in winning in ’11. Other outlying contenders who have won here in the last five years include Greg Biffle and Tony Stewart, though each would need almost everything to go right for five straight weeks to even have a shot.

But we’ve got a tighter Chase For The Cup than we did a week ago. When the drivers arrived in Charlotte, Johnson was the only one in shouting distance of Keselowski . Now JJ is close, and Hamlin’s moved to shouting distance. We’ll see which driver can recapture their previous winning form at the Kansas Speedway on Sunday.