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Indianapolis Colts playoff chances

The Indianapolis Colts Make Sense As A Super Bowl Longshot Bet

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The Super Bowl betting odds are updated in light of the playoff matchups being set, and while I’m not a betting man, I do like to make hypothetical wagers. One that intrigued me was the Indianapolis Colts, who are a 30-1 longshot to win the Lombardi Trophy. In a league that’s seen teams come out of the first round with frequency of late, aren’t those odds kind of tantalizing?

This notion might seem peculiar from the same writer who in this same space last week, decried the premature coronation of Colts’ quarterback Andrew Luck. And yes, if Luck does win the Super Bowl, I have no doubt that the mainstream media—including every single game commentator on every network—will become absolutely unbearable. At the rate his coronation is already going, a third-year run to a championship might win him the Nobel Peace Prize.

But the question here is not whether the media would go nuts. It’s not even whether they’re the Colts are likely to win it all—they’re probably not. The question is whether they’re good enough to make a flyer at 30-1 a value bet.

I find it intriguing, and ironically, because of Luck. In the same piece last week where I pointed out his failings, I also described a few positives, including the fact that I like him in an underdog role. It’s that positive I now want to expound on.

There’s nothing that’s more valuable if you’re betting an NFL playoff longshot, than the ability to weather adversity and not mentally give in. Most games—especially playoff games—are going to be close anyway, and that’s certainly true if you’re an underdog hoping to pull a road upset. The last thing you need is a quarterback who loses his confidence if things go wrong.

Luck’s turnover problems make him suspect in the front-runner’s role, but he’s got outstanding mental makeup that’s extremely attractive as an underdog. If you fall behind 10-0 early and he throws an interception, he’s not going to wilt. He’s not going to become timid in the pocket in the face of a hostile crowd. He plays at his best when behind.

And ultimately, if Indianapolis gets the ball down by four points with about five minutes left, you can feel good about their chances. Luck has the clutch gene in his makeup. The biggest question he and his teammates face is, can they consistently get themselves in these kind of situations over the course of the next month?

Indianapolis’ problems are no secret to NFL observers. They only have one good offensive lineman, Anthony Castonzo, who protects Luck’s blind slide. Gosder Cherilus at the other tackle, has been disappointing and deprived Luck of at least being able to trust the perimeter of his protection. The interior of the line isn’t very good, and none of the lineman—including Castonzo—are all that dominant in the drive-blocking so crucial to running the ball consistently.

The loss of Ahmad Bradshaw for the season further damaged the running game, and took away a good receiving option out of the backfield. The defense has been hurt all year by Robert Mathis first being suspended and then tearing an Achilles. The Colt defense relies almost exclusively on Vontae Davis being a shutdown corner and Cory Redding playing pretty well at end.

That’s a thin reed to hold onto, and while they’ve had some good games, we’ve also seen good teams—notably Pittsburgh and New England—bury the Colt defense by both air and ground.

But at the risk of stating the obvious, of course there’s going to be significant problems. If there’s not, you aren’t getting 30-1 odds. You’re getting something more like 12-1, which is what the Steelers are. Or 8-1, where the Dallas Cowboys are priced.

Indianapolis hasn’t beaten good teams the way they did in the early part of last year (when the Colts knocked off San Francisco, Seattle and Denver). But they’ve swept the Houston Texans, who finished with a winning record. The Colts won a home game over the playoff-bound Baltimore Ravens. Indy shut out the Cincinnati Bengals, albeit when Cincy was missing A.J. Green.

The Colts might not have fared well against the AFC’s elite, but they have consistently beaten other teams that are .500 and above. And this is still a lot of the same players who won this big games in the early part of 2013. It might not be this year, but it’s not as though some key players—including Luck and big-play receiver T.Y. Hilton have no idea how to beat a really good team.

Would I pick Indianapolis to win the Super Bowl in a straight-up pool? Are you kidding? But at 30-1, to take a shot on Luck’s clutch skills overcoming his turnover issues? Sure, why not. Just bet the Colts, and also bet an equivalent amount of one of the two co-favorites, Seattle and New England, who are both 5-2. If one of the co-favorites win, you make a little money. If the Colts win, you make a lot.

I’m not all negative on Andrew Luck. From a handicapping standpoint, the spot Luck is in right now is right in his wheelhouse—the feisty underdog.

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AFC Playoff Picture: Where Do The Indianapolis Colts Fit?

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Where do the Indianapolis Colts fit in the AFC playoff picture? Is this a fluke team, that even though they are 6-3 now, is destined for a slide back to reality and home for January? Or, as Andrew Luck continues to improve, are they ready to not only secure playoff position, but maybe push Houston in the AFC South, given that both Colts-Texans game are ahead of us? To get a handle on this, TheSportsNotebook will review the overall body of work Indy has put together over nine games, with a special emphasis on their recent four-game win streak. Then we’ll look at the schedule ahead and the overall context of the AFC playoff picture.

Indianapolis’ biggest strength is simple—they run a lot of plays. When you rank 10th in the league in rush attempts and fifth in pass attempts, you’re getting to snap the ball frequently and sheer volume alone is going to give you an edge. The Colts then support this with solid special teams work—they lead the NFL in net punting, and their kick coverage team is one of the league’s best.  And when Indy chooses to run, they can take care of the ball, having fumbled only once all year and never lost one.

The weaknesses start in the same area though, and it’s turnovers. Luck has thrown nine interceptions and this, combined with a defensive inability to take the ball away, leaves the Colts with (-9) turnover differential that’s one of the league’s worst. For all the plays, the offense runs, they don’t rank very high in yards per play, either rushing or passing. The same problem exists on defense. If Indy ever loses its edge on volume, they are going to start losing games.

Indianapolis started 2-3, with home wins over playoff contending Minnesota and Green Bay. Both wins came on last-second field goals. When you stood them next to blowout losses to the Bears and Jets, and a home loss to Jacksonville, there was little reason to think this would be anything more than a developmental year for Luck and his new team.

Then the Colts caught fire and they’ve won four straight. If you’re an Indianapolis fan you can credibly argue that the statistical outlook of the team’s first nine games doesn’t adequately reflect how they will play in the last seven, because the young players, led by Luck, are on the rise. You can credibly argue that isolating this four-game win streak is *not* a case of selective evaluation, but rather a realistic look at where the team is on its upward rise. So let’s go a little closer into all four wins.

October 21: vs. Cleveland (17-13)—Indy really didn’t play all that well here and Browns rookie Brandon Weeden was more impressive than Luck, though both quarterbacks played well. The Colts did not protect their quarterback well, exposing him to three sacks and six QB hits. What they did do was run the ball, as rookie Vick Ballard rushed for 84 yards, and the team numbers were a decisive 148-55 for the Colts, producing the win.

October 28: at Tennessee (19-13, OT)—Another good day for the running game, with 171 rush yards. Donald Brown led the way, and along with Ballard, they were enough to offset Tennessee’s Chris Johnson. The Colts were a little bit better running, a little bit better passing and a little bit better on the scoreboard.

Nov 4: vs Miami (23-20)—This game looks destined to be remembered as Luck’s breakout performance. Neither team ran the ball well and Indianapolis committed 11 penalties. Luck put the team on his back, threw for 433 yards without an interception and the Colts had a win that looks positively monstrous in today’s AFC playoff picture.

Nov 8: at Jacksonville (27-10): It’s a mark of how far Indy has come that they can manhandle a bad team on the road, the way did in Jacksonville last Thursday night. Luck was efficient, throwing for 227 yards. Jacksonville’s Blaine Gabbert had good numbers, but given how quickly Indianapolis took the lead, the Jaguar quarterback had little choice but to throw most of the night. Indianapolis’ ability to run the ball and not put it on the ground served them well here.

In looking at these four games, none really stands out. The opponents are all sub-.500 and the Browns and Jaguars are positively awful. But the consistency that Indianapolis is developing is what does stand out when you look at them as a body of work. You see the running game always there. You see Luck improving, and most important, you see that his interceptions came almost exclusively in the first five games of the year. It’s very reasonable to think these last four mistake-free games are a better indicator of what we’ll see from him down the stretch.

Indianapolis position in the playoff race is even better. At 6-3, they are tied with Pittsburgh among wild-card teams and both the Colts and Steelers are firmly in line for the two berths. The chasing teams are all 4-5, with Miami, Cincinnati and San Diego. The Colts already have a win over the Dolphins and the other two have major consistency issues.  Furthermore, if any of these chasing teams get on an unlikely run, the veteran teams in Pittsburgh and Baltimore look at least as vulnerable as the Colts.

The schedule is going to pick up in intensity and it starts on Sunday when Indianapolis visits New England. They also have a road game at unpredictable Detroit and two of the final three games are against Houston.  It’s important that Indianapolis win home games against Buffalo and Tennessee, and then take care of Kansas City on the road. That gets you to nine wins and it might be necessary for a single win in any of the difficult remaining games.

Then we come to those two remaining games against Houston in Weeks 15 & 17. If the Colts stumble in spots where they shouldn’t, those games will look like curses. But if Indy takes care of business, it could be opportunity—perhaps they’ll be in striking distance in the AFC South. It’s something no one would have remotely expected at the start of the year and maybe no one expects it now. But this is a team playing for a special cause, as head coach Chuck Pagano begins chemo treatments for leukemia and no one is ready to bet against them.

NFL Week 7 Recap: Remember The Titans

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The Tennessee Titans opened the season with a blowout loss to New England, another bad defeat at San Diego and were promptly written off as one of the worst teams in the NFL. Chris Johnson wasn’t running the ball and it looked like a long season in Nashville. Winning games against teams like Detroit a few weeks ago and now Buffalo on Sunday don’t mean you’re a playoff contender. But there’s a lot of evidence that the Titans are coming off the mat to be competitive team and the non-Houston portion of the AFC South might not be as bad as originally thought.

Tennessee rallied to beat Buffalo 35-34 because Johnson has been gradually gathering steam these past few weeks and he came up with a peak performance on Sunday, rushing for 195 yards on 18 carries, giving the Titan offense a dimension Buffalo lacked.

Veteran quarterback Matt Hasselbeck looks more comfortable each passing week as he fills in for the injured Jake Locker. Hasselbeck was 22/33 for 205 yards and no mistakes on Sunday—exactly the kind of veteran, high-efficiency game that can win for this team when Johnson is running the ball. I know Locker is the team’s future, but as long as Hasselbeck plays well and the Titans remain in playoff contention, I’d stick with the veteran.

Indianapolis’ 17-13 win over Cleveland could be reasonably taken as what you expect when two bad teams get together. But the Colts were able to win the game by running the ball, with Vick Ballard leading a team ground attack that produced 148 yards and were able to win even if Andrew Luck wasn’t quite as proficient as Brandon Weeden.

I think Indy has to feel good that they got a win in which Luck didn’t have to be the focal point of the offense and the team didn’t even play their best game—the Browns got consistent pressure, led by Frostee Rucker, a defensive end who was in the Indy pocket much of the afternoon. And even if you want to pooh-pooh this win—and again, I think that’s reasonable—the Colts’ wins over Minnesota and Green Bay look quite impressive.

It’s not as though the Titans and Colts are ready to challenge 6-1 Houston for the division title. At 3-4 and 3-3 respectively, they are clearly not. But the AFC remains a league in which only three teams are over .500, and both wild-card berths are going to be wide-open. Tennessee appears to ready to assume its preseason expectation of at least being in the mix for one of those. And while I’m still not sold on Indianapolis, you can’t write them off either.

The top of the AFC South looked impressive, with Houston dismantling injury-riddled Baltimore 43-14 behind a well-balanced offense and the Texans’ defense reduced Joe Flacco to complete ineffectiveness. And even the bottom of the AFC South turned in a credible effort—Jacksonville lost in overtime to Oakland, but the Jags led by 10 in the fourth quarter in spite of losing Maurice Jones-Drew early in the game and quarterback Blaine Gabbert midway through.

Now let’s run through the rest of the divisions as we wrap up NFL Week 7…

AFC EAST: I think expectations regarding the Patriots are getting a little out of hand, given that everyone seems to be a panic over a win. Their 29-26 overtime win over the Jets again showed the Pats’ problems with closing—it seems this team imported a local bullpen, that of the Red Sox, to try and close games and the Jets became the latest team to reverse a 10-point deficit into a fourth-quarter lead. This time Tom Brady first rallied the team to a tying field goal and then to an OT win.

But the Pats continue to commit to running the ball, with Stevan Ridley going for 65 yards on 17 carries. I think this a better balanced New England time—not as flashy or stat-sheet stuffing, but better suited to match up with good teams. They just need a secondary that can pitch the ninth inning, so to speak.

AFC NORTH: I trashed this division last week, and it’s difficult to restrain myself this time around. So I’ll start with something nice and it’s that the Steelers found a running game. Jonathan Dwyer ran for 122 yards as they rallied from 14-3 down to beat Cincinnati on the road Sunday night.

Now that nice time is over, the Ravens’ offense looks like a huge disappointment, Andy Dalton is clearly showing he can’t get the job done if Cincy needs him to throw—and when you consider Pittsburgh got no pressure throughout the night, that makes this  a double-dose of AFC North incompetence. And the Browns are still the Browns.

AFC WEST: San Diego, Denver and Kansas City were all off this week. Oakland got the aforementioned win over Jacksonville—an overtime home win over a last-place team that loses its star early in the game isn’t something to get overly excited about.

NFC EAST: As a Redskins fan, I realize I’m biased, but RG3 has to get some consideration for league MVP. He goes 20/28 for 258 yards passing, runs for 89 yards and has everything set for his team to beat the Giants on the road. Then the ‘Skins secondary, leading 23-20 with close to a minute left, inexplicably lets Victor Cruz beat them on a 77-yard touchdown catch. I’d understand if Eli Manning leads them into field goal range and sets up OT, but giving up the lead is inexcusable. Maybe RG3 needs to play defensive back too.

The Redskins ran the ball well with Alfred Morris, while New York’s running game seemed to disappear. They’ll need it back next week when they play Dallas, who got an ugly 19-14 win over Carolina, a battle between two teams trying to show who could manage key game situations worse.

NFC NORTH: I love the way the Vikings are winning—that a team can win games with the quarterback throwing for 58 yards, like Christian Ponder did against Arizona, warms the cockles of my football traditionalist heart. Of course just because I love it doesn’t mean I think it’s sustainable, but it is nice to see you can still win games in the NFL by running the ball, playing defense and attacking on the line of scrimmage—defensive end Brian Robison led a unit that had seven sacks in the 21-14 win.

Minnesota might not be as good as Green Bay or Chicago—the Packers had a nice workmanlike win in St. Louis—but the Vikings are a pleasant contrast to the underachieving Lions. Detroit turned in a hideously ugly performance last night in Chicago, losing 13-7 and not scoring until late in the game when it no longer mattered. They can’t run the ball, nor can they stop the run.

Jim Schwartz and his staff should give thanks the city can be preoccupied with the Tigers for another week and a half before they have to focus on how dysfunctional their football team has again become.

NFC SOUTH: Carolina did the honorable thing after starting 1-5 and blamed it on general manager Marty Hurney, who was shown the door. I’m not necessarily going to plead Hurney’s case—signing running back Mike Tolbert in free agency to join a backfield that was already stacked was hardly brilliant—but he’s given this team better than 1-5 talent.

Speaking of teams better than they’re record, New Orleans is still breathing at 2-4 after rallying to beat Tampa Bay on the road. The bottom of the NFC playoff bracket isn’t as generous as the AFC, but it’s still possible you get a 6-seed at 9-7, and that’s within grasp for the Saints if they got hot, now that second-string head coach Joe Vitti returns to  interim duty the rest of the way.

NFC WEST: San Francisco temporarily restored some order. Their 13-6 win over Seattle was, as the score indicates, as physical and defensive-oriented a game as we expected prior. The difference was that Alex Smith was able to be a little more efficient than Russell Wilson. When the Cardinals were overmatched at the line of scrimmage in Minnesota it also dropped Arizona to 4-3, where they and Seattle are each now a game back of the Niners.