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Houston Rockets playoff chances

NBA Commentary: Are Houston & Golden State Live Dogs In The West?

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The NBA’s Western Conference has had some clear structure and definition throughout the season. San Antonio and Oklahoma City were the co-favorites, the Denver-Memphis-LA Clippers troika was next, and the Los Angeles Lakers were the soap opera that sucked up all the media oxygen in the room with whether they could make the playoffs or not. The teams that mostly slid under the radar were Golden State and Houston. Each has solidified their playoff position. Now’s the time to ask if they’re a live dog that can challenge a favorite in the first round. Answering that question will the focal point of today’s NBA commentary.

Both teams play at a rapid pace—in fact, no one in the NBA pushes a faster pace than the Rockets, with Jeremy Lin at the controls and James Harden as his running mate. Harden has taken advantage of the opportunity to escape the shadow of Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook in Oklahoma City, and is averaging 26 ppg, to go with six assists per game. With 44 percent shooting from the floor, Harden is doing it with a fair amount of efficiency for the number of shots he takes. More importantly, he gives Houston the superstar presence that NBA teams need if they’re going to win a big playoff series.

What Houston does not do very well is play defense, ranking a little bit below the league average in efficiency. Please note that the efficiency ranking factors in the pace of the game, so the Rockets’ up-and-down approach can’t be used as an excuse. They do rebound the ball well, led by 26-year-old center Omer Asik, who averages 12 rebounds a game. And they’re certainly not shy about gunning the three-ball. This team leads the league in three-point shot attempts—something we certainly don’t need to remind Golden State of. The Rockets buried a record-tying 23 treys in an early February game against the Warriors and Golden State was reduced to intentionally fouling to prevent a new record from being set.

My problem with the Rockets—in addition to the biggie of their defense—is the lack of quality depth. Chandler Parsons is a good secondary scorer, getting 15 ppg, but there’s not a lot coming off the bench. I love the trade this team made at the deadline to get 22-year-old power forward Thomas Robinson from Sacramento. I think Robinson, under the tutelage of head coach Kevin McHale can become an outstanding power forward in this league. But that’s for future years. Right now, Robinson is nowhere near ready to contribute significantly in a playoff series.

If you pick the Rockets to win a playoff series you’re essentially asking James Harden to almost personally carry you past a good team four times in two weeks, to stay hot from three-point range and to continue an up-tempo pace at a time when most games become more of a grind. I’m rooting for the Rockets, because as a Boston fan I feel a certain loyalty to McHale—and he’s one of my all-time favorite NBA players to boot—but it’s tough to see Houston winning a playoff series in 2013.

Now let’s go to the great sports city of San Francisco—they have the World Series champ, they have a team that came within one play of winning the Super Bowl, and the Rose Bowl winner is nearby. The Warriors’ turnaround to make the playoffs under Jackson has already marked them part of the city’s success. Is there more success in the offing?

Golden State is similar to Houston in that they play up-tempo and are better offensively, than they are defensively, but the gap isn’t quite as pronounced as it is with the Rockets. Jackson has turned the Warriors in a team that competes on the defensive end. To continue the comparison, Golden State isn’t as dependent on the three-ball, but also lags a little bit behind Houston in rebounding.

The Warriors do have legitimate stars, in power forward David Lee and point guard Stephen Curry, The inside-out combo produces 52 points a game, and you can mix in two-guard Klay Thompson and his 16 ppg. Golden State has their own talented young forward under development in 20-year-old Harrison Barnes. The North Carolina product only averages 9 ppg, but like Robinson in Houston, he has the talent to become a playoff series-altering star.

If center Andrew Bogut really gets physical down low, I could see Golden State pulling off an upset, obviously pending what matchup they draw. Bogut gets seven rebounds a game, which isn’t a disgrace, but it’s not enough for a non-offensive center who goes 7’0”. If Bogut was grabbing a dozen boards or so during the playoffs, something that would also open up opportunities in transition, this could be a scary team.

Golden State is 43-32, with Houston a game back at 42-33. The race between the two is significant, because the lower finisher will draw the #2 seed, which means either San Antonio or Oklahoma City. Which means elimination. But to play the 3-seed means that, as the bracket stands right now you get Denver. The Nuggets are noted for their lack of stars, and any one of Lee, Curry or Harden would be the best player on the floor in a series with Denver. A potential matchup with Memphis would have a similar dynamic. The Clippers have the star power, but also lack the discipline of OkC or San Antonio and would be vulnerable.

We should also note that the Warriors and Rockets have a record that would position either in the 4-spot in the Eastern Conference bracket—and likely higher if they actually played an Eastern Conference-heavy schedule. It’s one more example of the disparity between the conferences and how it hurts up-and-coming teams like these.

THE WESTERN CONFERENCE PLAYOFF PICTURE

The Lakers are currently holding the 8-spot, though they are three games back of Houston with just seven to play. The talk of a couple weeks ago about how Los Angeles might get to that 6-spot has gone away. Although LA’s win over Dallas on Tuesday night realistically pushed the Mavericks out of the picture and effectively turned the race for the final berth into a two-team affair with Utah, currently a game out.

Oklahoma City beat San Antonio last night and the teams are tied in the loss column for the top spot. Denver is a half-game up on Memphis for the 3-seed, though the teams are tied in the loss column, with the Clippers two games behind. Note that as a likely division champ, the Clips can’t technically be seeded lower than 4th, although if their record is worse than the 5-seed, homecourt would be given to the team in the 5-hole (currently Memphis).

If you find that confusing and bizarre, you’re not the only one. I agree with the notion of guaranteeing a division champ a certain seed. I understand if you disagree and just want to seed by record. The NBA approach of trying to split the difference is stupid and needs to go. Just pick an approach and be consistent.

 

 

NBA Western Conference: Four Teams On The Playoff Fringe

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The NBA Western Conference has produced the best low-seeded playoff teams in recent years, with quality competition showing up in the 7-8 spots. Today, TheSportsNotebook is going to take a look at four contenders for those spots in Dallas, Utah, Minnesota and Houston.

If you look at the standings you could also include Denver, but I think the Nuggets are going to move further up. You could also make a case for Portland, though I think the Blazers are going to move further down. You could further make a case for the Lakers, but we covered them already in the run-up-to Christmas Day team look-ins that have been going on here over the past several weeks. And ultimately it’s just hard to jam more than four teams into a column. So without further adieu, let’s take a brief look at the Mavs, Jazz, Rockets and Timberwolves.

Dallas (12-13): The 2011 champs are in the midst of a tough schedule stretch, with a Tuesday night win over Philadelphia ending a three-game losing skid on the road. It doesn’t get easier with a game against Miami on Thursday (9:30 PM ET, TNT), then road trips to Memphis, San Antonio and Oklahoma City. But the worst of the schedule will be over by December 27, and by then its possible Dirk Nowitzki will be back on the floor.

In Dirk’s absence, Dallas has relied on a deep backcourt that’s led by O.J. Mayo. The free-agent acquisition from Memphis has taken advantage of his opportunity to be the main man, and is averaging 20 ppg, while hitting 48 percent from the floor and 51 percent from three-point range. Darren Collision, brought in from Indiana, is a quality passer. There’s veteran leadership with Derek Fisher and veteran…well, veteran presence anyway in Vince Carter.

Where Dallas is issues is underneath, with Shawn Marion, Elton Brandon and Chris Kaman all on the high side of 30 and the Mavs rank 29th in the league in rebounding. Nowitzki will help that, but he’s still more of a perimeter big man. For Dallas to get into the playoffs is either going to require Dirk to put them on his back for significant stretches this season for a trade for some fresh legs underneath.

Utah (14-12): Utah’s got the inside strength that Dallas lacks, in Al Jefferson and Paul Millsap. The duo carried them into the final playoff spot a year ago, and they’ combine for 32 points/18 rebounds a night. Derrick Favors provides quality rebounding help off the bench.

The Jazz have further upgraded the backcourt by bringing in veterans Mo Williams and Randy Foye, who have provided a significant upgrade over last year’s point guard Devin Harris, as much as that pains me to say given Harris’ pedigree at the University of Wisconsin, this writer’s favorite college team. Williams is running the offense well and Foye is knocking 42 percent from behind the arc. Then you have the continued growth of Gordon Hayward, who averages 13 ppg and as a 6’8” two-guard, he’s not an easy player to match up with defensively.

Utah got a nice win in Brooklyn on Tuesday and now the road trip moves on to Indiana, Miami and Orlando. If they just pick up one more win, that’s a nice survival display on the road and I like their chances to be back in the playoffs. And if they played a non-Miami favorite from the East, I think the Jazz would be a threat to win a first-round series. In the West, life is a little less fair and they need to climb to at least #6 to have a shot at advancing.

Houston (12-12): Kevin McHale’s team is on a nice little run right now, beating the Celtics at home last week and then going into Madison Square Garden and beating the Knicks on what had to be a sweet homecoming for Jeremy Lin, who scored 22 points. Lin was the first of the two waves the Rockets made in free agency/trades, with the next being more of a tidal wave when they swung the deal to get James Harden from Oklahoma City.

Harden is averaging 25 ppg, and he’s still only 23-years-old. Lin is just a year older, so this is a young backcourt where the guards complement each other well , already drive the fastest pace in the NBA, and have plenty of time and space to grow. We can add in 26-year-old center Omar Asik, who’s averaging 10 points/11 rebounds and 23-year-old power forward Marcus Morris, who’s only averaging 8 ppg, but is showing a nice touch on the jumper, including from trey range. Chandler Parsons is the main three-point shooter—aside from Harden and is having a nice year at 15 ppg. But for the long haul, Houston would probably be better suited to have Parsons in a role situation, rather than starting at small forward.

Houston’s future is bright and fans can get a look at their present on Christmas night when they visit Chicago (8 PM ET, ESPN), an ideal spot to relax and enjoy a little hoops after a big holiday meal.

Minnesota (12-11): There’s discontent coming from the Twin Cities, where Kevin Love seems unhappy. It’s hard to defend Love, who just signed a lucrative long-term deal, and it’s also hard to blame him, as he seems destined to follow in Kevin Garnett’s shoes as a top player whose career gets buried on bad teams. But Love also creates some of his problems—while his numbers, at 19/14 per game, are impeccable, it’s inexcusable for a player who only hits one of every five three-point shots, to be chucking five a game. That’s what my rec league basketball team does on Wednesday nights, and with the same level of success.

What Love does well is rebound, and so does Andrei Kirilenko, making the Timberwolves the best in the NBA at crashing the glass. If you can do that consistently, you can contend for a playoff spot over the long dog days of January and February. What Minnesota needs is for the backcourt to get and stay healthy. Ricky Rubio is back after the knee surgery that derailed what looked to be a playoff run a year ago. Brandon Roy is trying to get his career back and going and he’s started practicing again after November knee surgery of his own.

If Rubio and Roy are healthy, and Love quits jacking up threes, Minnesota can make the playoffs. Even if just Rubio stays healthy, the T-Wolves can stay competitive and be fun to watch.