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NBA Playoffs: Miami’s Mettle Gives Them Control Of Finals In Game 4

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Oklahoma City came out and threw the first punch in Game 4 of the NBA Finals, getting out to a 17-point lead in the first quarter against the Miami Heat. But the Heat counterpunched in the second quarter to essentially even things up and then a combination of OkC being stone cold from behind the three-point line and Miami being smarter down the stretch produced a 104-98 win for the Heat to give them a commanding 3-1 series lead.

With the exception of the first half of Game 2, Oklahoma City has gotten absolutely nothing from James Harden, the sixth man who plays starters’ minutes and whose shooting is desperately needed. He went 1-for-5 behind the arc last night and there were clean, wide-open looks that were nowhere close to finding the bottom of the net. Harden struggled to a 2-for-10 night from the floor and only eight points and there is zero chance the Thunder will win if he’s not contributing. Kevin Durant was also cold from long range, at 1-for-5, but Durant still put together a 28-point night with some good shooting from two-point range. But the lack of three-point shooting from the team as a whole—they missed 13 of 16 from trey range—and the lack of anything from Harden, all served to negate a brilliant performance from Russell Westbrook who dropped 43 points on the Heat, with a dazzling display of drives that Miami knew was coming and was powerless to stop.

What Miami did exceptionally well was get everyone involved in the offense and the credit for that starts with LeBron James. He had “only” 26 points, but delivered 12 assists. This is a facet of his game that doesn’t get nearly the credit it deserves and why it often makes sense for him to pass off in a key situation. James excels at getting the ball in the post and if he’s not able to score, to find an open man. When Larry Bird did it over and over again for the 1980s Boston Celtics, he got the nickname “Larry Legend.” When LeBron does it, it’s somehow an act of weakness. But there’s nothing weak about getting Mario Challmes involved to the tune of 25 points, many of the same kind of drives to the basket that Westbrook excelled at. There’s nothing weak about getting Dwayne Wade enough touches for him to knock down another 25.

Miami still shot too many threes—26 in all, and the makes that stick out in your mind don’t make up for the number of ill-advised attempts on possessions that could have put the Thunder away. They made 10, which is good enough to justify the trey attempts per se, but only if you don’t count the lost opportunities to do something in the lane. But it would be a three from LeBron that would be a dagger late in the game. It was a shot Oklahoma City has to give up—you can’t give him a drive to the basket—and he nailed it.

So is this series over? No team has ever come back from a 3-1 deficit in the NBA Finals, but in fairness, most teams in that spot don’t have two home games in the bank like Oklahoma City would if they can win Thursday night. And while I picked the Thunder to win this series, I was clear that I felt they needed to pick up one win in South Beach and that as long as they took the series back to OkC it was essentially even, even if they trailed 3-2. But the flip side is that I thought the win would come in either of the last two games. And it’s one thing to come home 3-2 coming off a Game 5 loss where you can regroup and get ready for one final push. Winning three in a row, regardless of venue, is obviously much more difficult.  Even if the series is extended back to Oklahoma City, I’d place the Thunder’s odds of winning at 35-40 percent rather than the even money I’d have given if they won last night.

And then there’s the further factor of wondering what chance Oklahoma City has on Thursday night in Miami. It’s clear that the Heat’s intangibles—championship experience, even if it came in defeat—are playing a huge role down the stretch, so while there’s every reason to think the Thunder will make Game 5 another good one, what basis do we have for confidence in their ability to execute in the end game? If they didn’t win when Westbrook turned in one of the great Finals performance in league history, how’s it going to happen otherwise? Players like Harden, in their first Finals, are unlikely to suddenly turn it on.  This has all the markings of being OkC’s learning year, while it’s Miami’s championship year.

So while I give the Thunder more a chance than I would almost anyone else in this spot, it’s hard for me to say it’s any better than 1 in 10 right now. I expect to see the end of the NBA season on Thursday night.

NBA Playoffs: Miami Stays Aggressive & Takes Game 3

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The Miami Heat took a 2-1 series lead over the Oklahoma City Thunder in the NBA Finals with Sunday night’s 91-85 win in South Beach. If there’s a word we can sum it up in, it would be aggressiveness. The Heat aggressively hit the boards and won the rebounding battle. As is often the case, that led to free throws and Miami had a solid edge in attempts from the charity stripe, 35-24. And with the Heat hitting their free throws while the Thunder missed, the actual scoring edge in this area ended up at 31-15, and was the decisive factor in the Miami victory.

It can be tempting for OkC fans to gripe out officiating inequities when you see numbers like this and this was the second straight game that foul trouble on Kevin Durant proved decisive—the Thunder star picked up his fourth early in the third quarter at a time when the Thunder had pulled out to a 10-point lead. Because I was watching the end of the U.S. Open last night while following the basketball score online,  I can’t comment specifically on any foul call prior to the latter part of the fourth quarter. But after a few years of reading box scores, both college & NBA, I can safely say there’s a definite correlation between rebounding and free throw attempts. Maybe it’s because of fouls on second chances, but I think often its intangible—both are the fruit of aggressive play. The same mindset that helps a team hit the boards also helps them drive to the basket and not settle for threes.

And for the second straight game Miami did not settle for threes. They only attempted 13, a prudent number. LeBron James scored big baskets down the stretch by driving. He ended up with 29 for the game and also had 14 boards. Chris Bosh had 11 rebounds. Meanwhile, Kendrick Perkins was the only Thunder player who showed an interest in crashing the glass, with 12 boards. Serge Ibaka had only five, and that number needs to be improved or this series will not return to OkC.

Game 4 goes on Tuesday night and I think the winner of this game will win the championship. As long as the Thunder pick up one win in Miami they’re at least even money going home—the historical track record suggests a 3-2 margin in favor of the underdog makes a series basically even heading into Game 6 and the last two years have borne that out. While Dallas got the road clinch in Miami last season, the Lakers beat Boston two straight in 2010. But none of the favorites who got the series back home ever fell behind 3-1 and that’s an area the Thunder don’t want to test. If they keep Durant out of foul trouble they’ll win. If not, they’re at the mercy of Miami to shoot themselves into a loss. That’s often a reasonable hope, but the last two games have shown a Heat squad intent on playing like a champion. I believe OkC is going to win on Tuesday and claim a title in seven games, but they’re on a dangerous brink right now.

NBA Playoffs: Miami’s Offense Drives To Game 2 Win

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The second game of the NBA Finals followed a similar pattern as the first—a strong start by Miami followed by a second-half comeback from Oklahoma City. But this time the comeback was much more grinding, the Thunder only got one chance to tie the game and the Heat played with more discipline on the offensive end. It added up to a 100-96 win for Miami to even the series.

Miami finally figured out how to integrate the three-point shot into their lineup. They got a big game from Shane Battier behind the stripe, as he hit 5-for-7, including a banked shot at a point in the fourth quarter when the lead was down to four. But the Heat didn’t allow Battier’s success to turn the rest of the team into long-range gunners and they kept their trey attempts at a modest 14. That in turn meant LeBron James and Dwayne Wade were driving the ball to the basket and they combined for 56 points, including several clutch baskets in the lane and off the dribble.

It was Oklahoma City airing it out from downtown, as the easy fast break baskets that keyed Game 1 were no longer available and Kevin Durant spent extended periods on the bench in early foul trouble. Russell Westbrook struggled in the first half, to the point that ABC analyst Magic Johnson called it the worst half by a point guard in the Finals he’d ever seen. Strong stuff from someone who knows a little bit about playing point guard in the Finals.

But both Westbrook and Durant got going in the second half, and they combined for 59 points. Durant buried several key shots, including a cold-as-ice three-pointer that cut the lead to 98-96, a shot set up by an intelligent extra pass from Westbrook. OkC got the ball back with a chance to tie, and a terrible no-call kept Durant from going to the line.  The Thunder got a rough break on the officiating last night and they were also uncharacteristically average from the free throw line themselves. 19-of-26 isn’t terrible, but OkC can do better than 73 percent. They didn’t, and that—along with the  47 percent Miami shot from the floor because they drove to the basket—are the biggest reasons this series is tied heading to South Beach on Sunday night.

NBA Finals Preview: Oklahoma City-Miami

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The NBA Finals tip off tonight, as the Oklahoma City Thunder host the Miami Heat. For all the difficulties the Heat encountered in each of the last two series, for how good the Spurs looked in the West, it almost seems like this was still the matchup that was supposed to be happen, as LeBron James and Kevin Durant each go for their first ring. TheSportsNotebook previews the Heat-Thunder final battle…

You can look at the scores from Oklahoma City’s playoff run and those of Miami and presume the Heat are more defensive-oriented, while the Thunder are geared to offense. That would be false. The Western Conference has faster teams—and frankly, most would say better teams—than the East. If you factor in pace of the game, the defensive numbers come out fairly equal, with Miami still slightly better, but even that can wiped out once you adjust for strength of schedule. If you listen to the media, you might presume the Heat like to get out and run the break. That would also be false. Miami ranks about the middle of the league in terms of game pace, while Oklahoma City does play at a fast clip. LeBron James will undoubtedly fill the lane for some big dunks that will get on SportsCenter, but both he and his team are at their best when running a good halfcourt offense.


Running a good halfcourt offense does not mean indiscriminately firing up three-point shots. If you saw the highlights of Miami’s Game 7 win against Boston, you saw LeBron’s 30-foot trey, along with Chris Bosh stepping up to hit 3-of-4 from behind the arc. You may recall Shane Battier knocking some three-pointers down. But the volume of threes the Heat are shooting must come down in this series. In the seven games against the Celtics they shot 155 times behind the arc. They only made 32 percent. Simple math says you have to hit one percentage point higher just to break even on the shot and simple math can’t factor in for what’s lost by not having LeBron and Dwayne Wade take the ball to the basket.

Miami had only one game in the conference finals where the three-ball was an asset, and that was Game 6, when they hit nearly 50 percent. That was also the only game they kept their attempts under 20 (16 in all) and made sure guard Mario Challmes, the best shooter on the team got a disproportionate number of attempts, as he hit 3-for-4. Call me crazy, but I see a trend there. Miami can’t get lazy on offense and jack up threes against Oklahoma City, because unlike the previous series, they aren’t going to chase down nearly as many long rebounds.

Oklahoma City is strong on the interior, with Serge Ibaka and Kendrick Perkins working the glass and their athletic ability is significantly higher than what Miami just faced. The Celtics were the equivalent of old Red Sox knuckleballer Tim Wakefield floating everything up there. This is the equivalent of the Heat having to turn around face Josh Beckett’s fastball one day later. Oklahoma City pushes the tempo and they do it with efficiency—even after you adjust for the pace, they still finished second in the league in offensive efficiency, and in the Western Conference Finals, they beat the team that finished first. The area I’m watching with OkC is how well they defend in the halfcourt.

San Antonio shot 45 percent or better three times in the six-game series, the benchmark I generally use to see how well a defense is playing. If Miami get hit 45 or better consistently, the Thunder are going to have problems, particularly when you factor in that made shots take them out of transition opportunities. The positive for OkC here is that only one of those 45+ games from San Antonio took place in the final four matchups of the series when the Thunder suddenly had everything click. And none took place on their home floor, where they get to open and close the Finals.

The LeBron-Durant showdown is getting the hype and while these are both immensely talented small forwards playing very well right now, there are some differences. Durant is a better pure shooter—a reason he can be more confident taking shots in the end game. LeBron’s a better rebounder, and a little bit better passer, a reason people shouldn’t knock him so much when he gives up a shot at the end.

Russell Westbrook and Dwayne Wade represent another battle. The Thunder guard is playing better right now and is younger, as Wade fights what are obviously nagging injuries. But the flip side is that Wade, as he demonstrated down the stretch in Game 7 has a proven champion’s ability in these moments, while Westbrook still has to show he can make it through an entire playoff run without allowing a bad shooting night to affect the rest of his game. If Miami wins this series, Wade needs to outplay Westbrook.

Each team’s third best player brings us to the stylistic differences between the two. For Oklahoma City its James Harden, the shooting guard who officially comes off the bench, but plays starters’ minutes. Harden is the three-point shooter that the entire Miami team thinks they are—he hits 45 percent behind the arc. Whereas Miami has Chris Bosh, who is obviously healthy again, and just as obviously can’t let his 3-for-4 from three-point range in the Celtics finale become fools’ gold. Bosh is the only consistent answer Miami has in the post and he has to play well for the Heat to execute in the half-court.

If it’s just about the Big Three, I would give a slight edge to Miami, not so much for anything to do with LeBron or Durant, then for the fact I’d prefer an inside-oriented team rather than a perimeter one. But of course we play five-on-five and Oklahoma City is much better at filling in its role spots than Miami. Serge Ibaka is a defensive force at power forward and able to kick in some help offensively, as a surprise 26-point night against the Spurs proved. Perkins hits the glass hard and does dirty work inside, and also has a championship ring as a starter with the 2008 Celtics. They both combine to give the Thunder a substantial edge on the interior, an edge that will get even bigger if Bosh decides the Finals are a time to hone his three-point shot.  Whereas with Miami, they’re waiting for Challmes to get untracked in the backcourt. He’s got to have more games like Game 6 where his three-point shot can consistently open up the lane. He’s got to hit better than 70 percent of his free throws, something Wade and LeBron also need to improve on.

Therefore, if Miami wins we need to see them play good halfcourt defense, assume their solid defensive numbers against the East can translate into play against the West. They need to run the halfcourt offense and not play street ball, where they start launching three-pointers, and instead get LeBron and Wade driving to the bucket and Bosh hitting some jumpers either on post-up or near the elbow.

For Oklahoma City to win, we need the kind of defensive effort they brought to the last four games of the San Antonio series, we need Ibaka and Perkins to close those possessions with the rebound and we need Westbrook to realize that even if he doesn’t shoot well, he can still distribute the ball.

Both of those are realistic scenarios. Oklahoma City opens as a decent favorite at (-160), meaning you have to bet $160 to get a profit of $100 if you take the Thunder. You can bet Miami at (+140), meaning a simple $100 bet returns $140 in profit. We’ve got a situation where a betting line underdog playing without homecourt advantage is the team with all the pressure on them, which brings us to the final intangible that I think is going to decisive. Is Oklahoma City going to be just happy to be here, while Miami is determined to shut the critics up? In the end, that’s the only reason I would have to pick against the Thunder. They’re the one team that can match Miami in star power, they have better role players and they  have the homecourt edge. But no one’s going to call them a failure if they lose. Their motivation will have to come from within.

I don’t make final predictions based on these kinds of intangibles because I have no way of knowing the mindset of each team or even how that mindset will affect their play. I know what I see on paper and when I’m watching the games. I like the Thunder to win the first two games of this series at home. Then for Miami to take two of the next three (remember in the Finals, it goes 2-3-2 for homecourt), with OkC coming home to close out a championship in Game 6.