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Is This Finally The Year For Gonzaga Basketball?

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Gonzaga basketball splashed onto the national scene in 1999 when they made a surprise run to a regional final before losing to ultimate NCAA champion UConn. Since that point, the Zags have been in the NCAA Tournament every year, sometimes with high expectations. But they’ve never even reached the regional finals again, much less the Final Four. Mark Few’s team has a chance this year, thanks to some good size on the frontcourt.

GonzagaThe Zags have three players on the frontline who go 6’10” or higher and it starts with forward Kyle Wiltjer. One of the best players in the country, Wiltjer is averaging 16 points/5 rebounds per game, and at “small” forward, he’s got a significant size advantage on pretty much anyone he matches up with.
Przemek Karnowski and Domanta Sabonis do the dirty work down low, combining for 13 rebounds a night, and they each score in double digits. They come from Poland and Lithuania respectively, two of the Catholic nations freed when the Iron Curtain came down.
It would be appropriate, though hardly the most important historical development,  if this Jesuit school finally makes the Final Four thanks to the work of John Paul II in breaking the old Soviet Union and opening the door for players like Karnowski and Sabonis to come to the United States.
Kevin Pangos is a senior leader at guard, who seems to have been around forever. Pangos can hit from behind the arc and keep defenses loosened up. Byron Wesley is another double-digit scorer in the backcourt and also a senior. As if this weren’t enough experience, Few has senior Gary Bell as his third guard, and Bell can both shoot and distribute.
Thus, Gonzaga has all the elements. They have the size to match up with anybody. They have the shooters to keep defenses from sagging back. They have scoring balance where anyone can hurt you. Yet within that balance, they still have the clear go-to option you need in big NCAA Tournament games, with Wiltjer.

All of this looks good, but the days of 1999 innocence in the eyes of the national media are long gone. Gonzaga now invites skepticism, at least as a #1 seed, which is where their 24-1 record has them projected by ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi.
The skepticism is understandable—there have only been four additional Sweet 16 appearances in the ensuing sixteen years. Any lingering benefit of the doubt the Zags were getting was lost in 2013 when Kelly Olynyk led them to a #1 seed and they lost in the second round.
Nor does the schedule offer a lot of opportunities for Gonzaga to prove themselves before people have to fill out their NCAA Tournament bracket sheets. It’s not for a lack of trying—Few’s kids have beaten solid NCAA contenders SMU, Georgia and St. John’s, all by at least twelve points. They went to overtime at Arizona before losing. And they scheduled UCLA and Memphis and won decisively, even if neither of those programs have been up to snuff this year.
The problem is that the most significant of those games—the SMU, Georgia and St. John wins, along with the Arizona loss—took place between November 17 and December 6. It’s not Gonzaga’s fault that the West Coast Conference only offers St. Mary’s and BYU as viable competition. But this isn’t about assessing blame—it’s about asking whether there’s a reason to believe.
I like Gonzaga, I think they’ve got good talent and as long as they aren’t in a regional with Wisconsin, my favorite team, I’ll pull for the Zags. I won’t be shocked if they make it. But would I pick Gonzaga to get past other projected 2-seeds like a Kansas or Arizona? Let’s just put it this way—I realize this is a good Catholic school, but when the apostle Paul wrote that “Faith is the substance of things hoped for, the evidence of things not seen”, he wasn’t talking about one’s NCAA picks. And faith without evidence is what’s required to pick Gonzaga to reach the Final Four.
 

Gonzaga Basketball Hopes For A Different Ending

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Gonzaga basketball has taken on an “America’s Team” sort of status since making their first national splash in the 1999 NCAA Tournament. The Zags have never quite fulfilled expectations though. No Final Four run has happened in the Pacific Northwest, and March disappointments have become the norm. That was never the case more than in 2013, when Gonzaga got the #1 seed in the West, but lost in the second round to Wichita State. It would be the Shockers, not the Zags that captured everyone’s attention with a run to the Final Four.

It was a tough ending to the career of center Kelly Olynyk, a subsequent first-round draft pick by the Boston Celtics and it was even more bitter given that we’ll never know if Gonzaga-Wichita was really a de facto regional final. The cold reality is that Gonzaga has had to live with the “disappointment” label that comes with being a 1-seed that fails to even make the Sweet 16. Let’s check in on how this year’s Zags are doing.


The loss of Olynyk has made Gonzaga more perimeter-oriented. Kevin Pangos leads the team in both scoring and assists, and is a deadly shooter from behind the arc. Gary Bell isn’t far behind on any of those counts himself. David Stockton, the son of former Gonzaga and Utah Jazz legend John Stockton plays a supporting role, as does 6’5” Kyle Dranginis, the one player not outsized by taller two-guards.

Senior forward Sam Dower continues to give the lineup an inside presence, with a 14 points/7 rebounds per game average. Another forward, Drew Barnham hits 48 percent of his three-point shots and can play a key role in pulling bigger players away from the basket. The intriguing player is 7’1” sophomore Przemek Karnowski. The Polish import is averaging 10 points/7 rebounds per game and if he can continue to grow into the role vacated by Olynyk, the Zags can be a different team by March.


Gonzaga will have to be at least a little bit different by March if they want to make a good NCAA Tournament run. While the record is 18-3, the losses to Dayton, Kansas State and Portland aren’t impressive, nor is the fact that Arkansas is the best win. The pollsters aren’t buying in this time around either, as the Zags are in the “others receiving votes” category.

Perhaps that’s for the best though. If Karnowski continues to develop, Gonzaga can peak later rather than earlier. Pangos is the kind of player whose vulnerabilities—too small, not a great defensive player—look bad on a highly seeded team, but whose ability to light it up from trey range make him a potent X-factor when his team is a dark horse.

Gonzaga’s got some improving to do, but if you were burned by them last year as a big favorite, don’t let that dissuade you this time around.

Midmajor College Basketball Report: Gonzaga, Creighton & Wichita State

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The midmajor college basketball teams were quiet last March. After a 2011 year that saw Virginia Commonwealth make the Final Four and Butler reach the national championship game for the second straight year, 2012 belonged to the big boys, with power conference teams controlling the bracket by the regional final round and only Ohio and Xavier making the Sweet 16.

If this year is going to be different, we can start the conversation with the three midmajors in the national rankings—that would be Gonzaga, Creighton and Wichita State and it’s this trio who all get a closer look today.

Gonzaga: The Zags lost to #10 Illinois, but the Illini are undefeated thus far, and Gonzaga has strung together some wins over power conference teams in West Virginia, Clemson, Oklahoma and Washington State—none by themselves are incredibly dazzling, but taken collectively it’s a run that at least tells us that Mark Few’s program is on a path back to the NCAA Tournament.

Gonzaga’s success the last couple years has come from controlling the paint, and even with Robert Sacre gone, that should hold true again this year. Elias Harris back at the power forward spot and averaging 17 points/8 rebounds a night, while 7’0” junior Kelly Olynyk has stepped into Sacre’s role and put up a 14/7 average. The perimeter is in good hands with sophomores Kevin Pangos and Gary Bell Jr. They underwent trial by fire last year, getting starters’ minutes as freshmen and are now experienced beyond their years.

Last season’s tournament saw Gonzaga knock off West Virginia before losing to eventual Final Four participant Ohio State on the first weekend. The weaknesses this year’s Zags team have is depth—there are really no quality contributors beyond the four players mentioned, as well as outside shooting. While both Pangos and Bell are good playmakers and can score, there’s no one on this team who can really loosen up a defense by hitting the trey. Finally, both Pangos and Bell are undersized, at 6’2” and 6’1” respectively, and it’s easy to see a national power with bigger guards able to create matchup problems.

Overall, I think this is a good team, but one in the recent Gonzaga tradition—good enough to get to the NCAA, perhaps win a game, but I don’t see them matchup well against true national contenders.

Creighton: Doug McDermott is the small forward and the 6’8” junior might be the best player in the country, averaging 23/7 per game and hitting better than 50 percent of his shots both from the floor and behind the arc. He makes Creighton a threat against anybody.

Even better is the fact McDermott has plenty of help. Gregory Enrichque goes 6’9” and hits the boards. The backcourt is deep and well-balanced. Austin Chatman and Gary Gibbs are both excellent distributors and each can score when they have to. Chatman hits 56 percent from three-point range, and Gibbs goes 6’5”, giving the Bluejays the outside shooting and matchup edges that Gonzaga lacks.

Creighton beat Alabama in last year’s NCAA Tournament and only lost to North Carolina, who reached a regional final. There’s no reason to think the Bluejays can’t be a Top 16 team this year. The lack of anyone taller than 6’9” on the frontline and general depth issues in the post are what keep them from going higher.

Wichita State: The Shockers were the one team in this trio who was a disappointment in last year’s NCAA Tournament, losing to Virginia Commonwealth in their first game. Wichita knocked off VCU by a bucket earlier this season, but they still have some backcourt issues to work out.

There’s no one at the guard position averaging in double figures, though both Demetric Williams and Evan Wessel can shoot the trey, so whether their scoring rises as the season goes on and defenses start to pack it in, will be something to monitor. Right now the Shockers rely on two high-quality forwards in Cleanthony Early and Carl Hall, who combine to produce 27 points and 12 rebounds a night.

Wichita is a well-coached and has a nice basketball tradition, but it’s tough for me to see them doing serious damage on a national scale. If we were to assess the midmajor college basketball landscape, I’d identify Creighton is the real threat, with Gonzaga and Wichita State needing improvement.