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MLB Playoffs: Comebacks Mark Wednesday’s Action

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Comebacks were the story of the day in the MLB playoffs yesterday. The Oakland A’s were three outs from going home before they rallied to beat Detroit. The New York Yankees trailed in the ninth inning, before making what will surely be one of the most celebrated pinch-hit decisions in baseball history and then winning a 12-inning game over Baltimore. And the San Francisco Giants won their second straight elimination game on the road and forced a decisive fifth game in Cincinnati.

We’ll run down all four games from yesterday, including St. Louis’ win over Washington, and look ahead to another quartet today…

Oakland 4 Detroit 3: The worst-case scenario for Detroit finally materialized. They played a good game for eight innings, getting a solid five-plus from Max Scherzer, got a home run from Prince Fielder and had chipped their way to a 3-1 lead in the ninth. They were things you could pick some nits over—a scoring opportunity in the fourth went by the boards when Jhonny Peralta hit into a double play and a Fielder error set up Oakland’s lone run to that point, but the Tigers were—for the third straight game—getting good starting pitching from guy not named Verlander—and just enough offense.

But the Detroit bullpen has been problematic all year and for a high-save closer, Jose Valverde flirts with danger way too often. On Wednesday night he quickly gave up a single to Josh Reddick  and consecutive doubles to Josh Donaldson and Seth Smith, tying the game before an out was recorded. Then when Valverde got the brink of escaping, the Coco Crisp beats him with a walk-off single.

Crisp is hitting .222 for the series, but he seems in the middle of everything, from key hits to start games and now a season-saving hit to end one. Now the miracle A’s are one win away—sure, it’s against Verlander, but do they really believe they can lose?

NY Yanks 3 Baltimore 2 (12): There was one out in the ninth and Joe Girardi was apparently less than inspired by Alex Rodriguez’ .083 series batting average as the $30 Million Man strode to the plate. Girardi rolled the dice and pinch-hit for A-Rod, sending Raul Ibanez to the plate. Strategically the move was a no-brainer. A-Rod was slumping, his power had been down all year, Ibanez had the lefty-righty matchup against Baltimore closer Jim Johnson and Ibanez was more than capable of reaching the short rightfield porch to tie the game.

Still, the odds in any single situation favor the pitcher in baseball if only because of the numbers. Was Girardi going to lose A-Rod and subject both to a sea of questions for no gain? The sea of questions are going to be in A-Rod’s future, but no one else will care, because Ibanez not only delivered the unlikely home run to tie the game, he homered again in the 12th to win it.

Neither team produced any kind of consistent offensive threats—the Orioles got their runs on the long ball from Ryan Flaherty and Manny Machado, while the Yankees other run came on a two-out triple from Derek Jeter early on.

The Captain again made his mark on a key game with this hit, along with catching Baltimore’s Nate McLouth off the base after the latter stole second in the first inning. It was part of a tough night for McLouth who had what might have been the game-winning hit in 10th, but his bullet line drive was snared by Jeter, who doubled Robert Andino off of second.

My intense distaste for the Yankees, combined with four recent years living in Baltimore have given me a strong passion in this series even if I’m not an Oriole fan per se. This game was a tough one to swallow, but there’s no denying Ibanez’ heroics fall into that unique baseball category we call “Iconic October Moments.”

San Francisco 8 Cincinnati 3: The loss of Johnny Cueto came to roost yesterday for the Cincinnati Reds. Cueto’s back spasms have forced him off the postseason roster, not to return unless his team makes the World Series and just days after winning the first two games of this series out west, Cincinnati suddenly looks unlikely to survive today’s finale at home.

Mike Leake got the start for the injured Cueto and had nothing, as Angel Pagan demonstrated with a long home run to start the game. Gregor Blanco homered in the fourth, and the Cincy bullpen couldn’t hold down the fort when the game was still a competitive 5-3 in the seventh. Pablo Sandoval delivered the last of his three hits, a monster shot to center off Jose Arredondo to break the game open and send the normally polite folks from Cincy into a round of boos.

Barry Zito struggled for San Francisco, having giving up two runs by the third and Bruce Bochy showed no hesitation in pulling him. Not only was Bochy facing elimination, but he had Tim Lincecum available in relief and the former Cy Young Award winner came up with a quality 4.1 IP/1 ER line that enabled the Giants to gradually take control of the game before eventually breaking it open.

The poor city of Cincinnati once watched San Francisco rally late and take a Super Bowl from them back in 1988, when Joe Montana led a last-minute drive. Now they’re watching it unfold in baseball, as the good right arm of Matt Cain is the opponent tomorrow.

St. Louis 8 Washington 0: Throughout the MLB Network broadcast of this game, Bob Costas and Jim Kaat noted that the decision to shut down Stephen Strasburg would be a big deal if Washington couldn’t win this series. Because as discussed here at TheSportsNotebook, it’s not the top of the rotation where Washington would be hurt—they still had Gio Gonzalez and Jordan Zimmerman, even if the latter did not pitch well. But now when the series got late, they were going to Edwin Jackson and Ross Detwiler, while the Cardinals had Chris Carpenter in the bag.

The game went as might be expected. Jackson looked like a veteran pitcher that’s serviceable in the regular season, but overmatched by a good lineup in the postseason as St. Louis lit up their old teammate quickly, grabbing a 4-0 lead that was keyed by a three-run shot by rookie shortstop Pete Kozma. As a team St. Louis had fourteen hits, five of them for extra bases.

Carpenter had some problems early, and was in and out of trouble, but Washington never got to him, as the postseason master did it again, working 5.2 IP of shutout ball and turning it over to the bullpen. Now the St. Louis rotation goes back to the top, with Kyle Lohse getting the ball and the Nationals forced to rely on talented, but inconsistent Ross Detwiler.

THE THURSDAY QUARTET

We could know the League Championship Series participants by the end of tonight, and we’ll for sure know at least two of them, as another day of all-day baseball awaits…

*A TBS tripleheader starts at 1 PM EST with the winner-take-all Game 5 in Cincinnati. While San Francisco has Cain ready, the Reds have Mat Latos ready to start on full rest and Dusty Baker will have the option of using Bronson Arroyo on three day’s rest for some middle relief duty if Latos has trouble, or if the game goes extra innings. Conversely, San Francisco realistically burnt up Lincecum yesterday. While San Francisco has the starting pitching edge, there are some bullpen factors that can break Cincy’s way today.

Up next is St. Louis-Washington where it’s Lohse-Detwiler. The Cardinals have scored 20 runs in the last two games and I can’t think of a reason they shouldn’t win today. If Washington does survive, they can go to Gio Gonzalez for tomorrow’s finale in a rematch of his Game 1 duel with Adam Wainwright.

Then it’s Baltimore-New York. The Orioles have shown an admirable ability to bounce back from adversity all year, including the loss of their best on-base percentage hitter in Nick Markakis. I don’t think emotional fallout will be an issue here.

What the Birds have to be plainly concerned about is that New York has been able to hit their closer, beating Johnson for both of their games. And they need to get into the Yankee bullpen quicker—Hiroki Kuroda worked eight-plus last night and a  Yankee deficiency—lack of depth in relief, is not being exploited.

At 9:30 PM ET, Turner Broadcasting Network takes the baton and we head out west for the Oakland-Detroit finale, with A.J. Griffin facing Justin Verlander.

One thing to note—the Yankees and Cardinals are baseball’s two most decorated franchises, both recent appearances, but they haven’t gone head-to-head since 1964. It looked like they were set to play in 2004 when New York was three outs away from the pennant and had Mariano Rivera on the mound, but then Boston rallied and won that game, plus three more in the most epic comeback of playoff history, and it was they who would face the Cardinals (this is another edition of my repeated efforts, as a Red Sox fan, to insert them into the postseason discussion this year even when the relevance is almost non-existent).

Anyway, the point of all this is that both teams seem to have their paths opening up. New York not only goes from facing elimination to having a game in hand, plus Sabathia in reserve, but they also know that even if Detroit wins tonight, Verlander is burned up until Game 3 of the ALCS.

On the National League side, St. Louis first benefits from the most bizarre interpretation of the infield fly rule in baseball history, then faces a team that voluntarily shut down its ace and now will either face one team whose ace is injured (Cincinnati) or another whose ace won’t be available until Game 3 of the NLCS (SF).

Both the Yankees and Cardinals have to pick up another win over the next two nights before they can think about LCS matchups, but the pathway to a historic World Series matchup is there.

MLB Playoffs: Bad Night For The Bay On Saturday

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It was a tough Saturday night if you were a baseball fan in the Bay Area, as both Oakland and San Francisco fell behind in their respective Division Series games against Detroit and Cincinnati. Let’s look back on Saturday and ahead to what will be a full-throttled four-game run on Sunday in the MLB playoffs…

Detroit 3 Oakland 1: Justin Verlander needed to step up and show he could deliver dominating postseason performances to go with his regular season excellence. The Tiger ace did just that. It took him one batter to get settled in—Coco Crisp led off the game with a home run for Oakland, but the A’s managed just three hits for the rest of the night. The Detroit bullpen, an area of concern, was fine, as Joaquin Benoit and Jose Valverde closed out the final two innings without incident.

Oakland’s pitching, with starter Jarrod Parker had its own moments. Even with the Tigers quickly tied the game in their own half of the first, it could have  been worse. Detroit immediately put runners on first and third and brought Miguel Cabrera to the plate. The Triple Crown winner promptly hit into a double play. It scored the run, but an early big inning was off the board, in a sequence essentially identical to what happened to Texas and Josh Hamilton in their wild-card loss to Baltimore on Friday night. Cabrera and Prince Fielder went 0-for-7 on the night, with just a Cabrera walk.

The performance of Verlander and the collaring of Cabrera and Fielder give us a pretty good sign that this series is likely to be a grinding affair, and last night it was Alex Avila who gave Verlander the offense he needed. The Detroit catcher had two hits, including a home run that made it 3-1 in the fifth.

Cincinnati 5 San Francisco 2: It was a strange night for Cincinnati who lost ace Johnny Cueto after just one batter to back spasms. Cueto is scheduled to start Game 3 back home on Tuesday, but his departure forced manager Dusty Baker into some creative shuffling with his staff. He brought in the original Game 3 starter Mat Latos, who gave four quality innings of work, while the Reds carved out a 3-1 lead.

The game got ugly on both sides in the ninth. Cincy loaded the bases with two outs and then got their insurance runs on a wild pitch and passed ball. Aroldis Chapman proceeded to let the Giants back into it, looking like he didn’t have any command of the strike zone and the tying run getting the plate before the closer sealed the deal.

Ultimately the person who looked the worst last night in this game was yours truly. My pick of San Francisco to sweep the series was gone. I further said that the only way Cincinnati was going to win a game would be last night, but that was conditioned on Cueto pitching. Wrong again.

Then I was with a  friend who was a Reds fan that challenged me for further reasons on my pick and I said that Brandon Phillips and Jay Bruce were overrated as offensive players and products of their hitter-friendly home park. Playing on the road, Phillips hit a two-run jack to start the scoring, and had three hits. Bruce hit a long home run to right field. That’s a Grand Slam Parlay of being wrong all around for yours truly.

The Sunday Schedule

*If I’m an Oakland fan, I’m telling myself that we knew Verlander would be tough to beat on his homefield, and it’s now game-on for this series. The A’s now get three shots the middle of the Detroit rotation. It starts today at noon ET, when Doug Fister takes the baton from Verlander. Oakland sends out rookie Tommy Milone. In a strange coincidence, both cities can be all-in on baseball today, as the Lions and Raiders both have bye weeks in the NFL.

*The early game will be on MLB Network and then TBS takes over with a tripleheader starting at 3 PM ET. The first two are the series getting underway. You can check out TheSportsNotebook previews of St. Louis-Washington & NY Yanks-Baltimore, which begin with the Cards and Orioles at home.

When the previews were written yesterday Baltimore was still unsettled as to their Game 1 starter. Buck Showalter has opted for Jason Hammel, the best on the staff when healthy, but he hasn’t pitched in a couple weeks with a knee injury.

*The night ends back out west with Cincinnati-San Francisco and the Giants facing the first must-win spot of this round. Unlike Oakland, who could hope to rally at home if they fall behind 0-2, the Giants know they’re already up against it when they visit Cincinnati. Madison Bumgarner and Bronson Arroyo will square off.

 

MLB Division Series Preview: San Francisco-Cincinnati

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Cincinnati and San Francisco had their respective divisions wrapped up fairly early and while the Reds had a shot at the National League’s top seed, this matchup in the MLB Division Series has been at least written in pencil for a while now. It starts tonight in San Francisco, as the second part of a playoff doubleheader that starts with Oakland-Detroit. The Reds-Giants  continue tomorrow and then come to Cincinnati for the final three games on Tuesday thru Thursday.

TheSportsNotebook previews the series by focusing on each team’s ability to get on base, hit for power, along with their starting pitching and bullpen. Then we’ll add in a historical footnote to give these games some context, examine how the bookmakers of Las Vegas see things and conclude with a prediction.

ABILITY TO GET ON BASE: This is a significant problem for the Reds, who ranked just 10th in the National League in on-base percentage. It’s a low rank for a team that won its division by such a substantial margin and plays in a hitters’ park, but if you look at the talent individually, there’s reason to hope things can different in the postseason.

Joey Votto is healthy and his OBP is a dazzling .477, in part because teams will do anything to avoid pitching to the first baseman. Ryan Ludwick has enjoyed a comeback year in left field at .351. Ryan Hanigan is a pesky .366, the kind of catcher who can quietly make a big difference to a lineup.

But other key offensive players—namely Jay Bruce, Brandon Phillips and Scott Rolen—are subpar when it comes to getting themselves aboard consistently. Shortstop Zack Cozart has had some hot streaks, but the rookie has had terrible dry spells and the final .291 OPB he posted tells you there were more of the latter. Dusty Baker needs to find a way to get Todd Frazer into the lineup. He’s respectable at getting aboard. Playing him means displacing Ludwick or Rolen, as Frazier can play left field and third base (he can also play first, although he’s obviously not displacing Votto). Rolen has struggled, but Baker might be taken in by his postseason experience.

San Francisco has the reputation for being all pitching, but they were third in the NL at getting on base, and while some of that is due to the production of Melky Cabrera, now suspended and disgraced for PED use, the Giants are an underrated lineup. Buster Posey has turned in an MVP-caliber season, driven by a .410 OPB, while Brandon Belt and Pablo Sandoval are solid at the corner infield spots. Angel Pagan has had a respectable year in center, and Marco Scutaro has swung the bat very well since coming over in a trade from Colorado.

POWER: The Reds rank 6th in slugging, but given the hitter-friendly dimensions of their home park, this is even a little low. In fairness, they were without Votto for several weeks after the All-Star break, and while the Reds continued to win, it did hurt their power numbers. Votto, Bruce and Ludwick all have to produce, at least with extra base hits and RBIs if their team is going to win. This is another area where Frazier could help—is it coming across that I think Baker should keep Rolen on the bench and play Frazier instead? Good. And Phillips has good power for a middle infielder, slugging .454, while there are no obvious liabilities.

San Fran is 8th in slugging, but with their home park being pitcher-friendly, it’s fair to assume they’ll at least be even with Cincinnati, if not better. Posey has driven the ball very well, while Sandoval is another good power threat. Belt and Pagan are at least tolerable when it comes to their ability to hit the gaps. But this is the area where Hunter Pence has to step up. The rightfielder has been a non-factor since being acquired from Philadelphia at the trade deadline, but we know he can contribute here, as well as with getting on base. But in no area is a Pence step-up needed more than in the area of power.

STARTING PITCHING: Both teams are strong here, and this is pretty even-up each step along the way. The aces, Matt Cain for San Francisco and Johnny Cueto for Cincinnati, are lined up to pitch Games 1 & 5. While Cueto has had the better season this year, Cain still had a solid 2012 campaign and his overall career tells us he can match up with the #1’s anywhere in baseball.

Game 2 is Bronson Arroyo-Madison Bumgarner, with the latter having better stuff, but the former having more durability. Then it’s Tim Lincecum-Mat Latos in Game 3, as the Giants’ two-time Cy Young winner can make a big impact on this series if he continues his second half resurgence. Then it’s Homer Bailey, the Cincy starter who threw a September no-hitter in Game 4 against an undecided starter for the Giants. It could be Barry Zito or Ryan Vogelsong, or maybe even Cain on short rest if San Fran is in a must-win spot.

RELIEF PITCHING: Both teams are good here and no one’s going to feel confident about coming back after five innings, but Cincinnati is a little deeper and better in the ninth inning, thanks to having Aroldis Chapman and San Francisco having been without Brian Wilson all year. The Giants have two high-quality late-inning pitchers in Santiago Casilla and Sergio Romo, who combined for 38 saves. But closing in the regular season is different from closing in October and we’ll have to see how they respond.

More important, the loss of Wilson has put Frisco an arm down all year and that’s an edge Cincinnati can exploit. Dusty Baker is about two pitchers deeper than Bruce Bochy in the pen, and that gives an edge in a tie game and more options for a quick hook on a starter early.

HISTORICAL FOOTNOTE: This is the first time the Reds and Giants have met in the playoffs, and even though they were both in the old NL West together from 1969-93, they never really went at each other in a big pennant race. The closest we can come is 1971, when San Francisco briefly interrupted the Big Red Machine with a division title and again in 1987, when they beat out Pete Rose in the latter’s run of four straight second-place finishes while managing Cincinnati. But neither race was particularly dramatic.

Where these cities cross paths is in football. The 49ers beat the Bengals in the Super Bowl two different times, in 1981, when both had dramatic turnarounds, and in 1988 when Joe Montana built on his legend with a late touchdown pass to John Taylor. Winning a Division Series round in the MLB playoffs won’t make up for that, but Cincinnati has to feel like they owe Frisco a little something.

THE VIEW FROM VEGAS: Cincinnati is a slight favorite to win the series at (-125),where it requires a $125 bet to win $100. San Francisco is posted at (+105), so you can get a 5 percent return for taking the underdog. What is interesting is that the Giants are considered the better play to win the World Series, at (+385), while you can get Cincy for (+495) to win the whole thing. So the bettors who like the Giants in this series like them a lot, while those who like the Reds, don’t see it going much past the coming week.

THE SPORTSNOTEBOOK PREDICTION: I’m very skeptical of Cincinnati’s offense to get anything going consistently, given their problems with getting on base and my doubts that their power will translate well away from their home park. Furthermore, I think Lincecum’s second-half resurgence is real and that Pence can finally give San Francisco a boost. I’m taking San Francisco to sweep this in three straight and even if Cueto wins tonight, a game I expect to be a pitcher’s duel, the Giants will win the ensuing three.