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Ford Ecoboost 400

NASCAR Sprint Cup Series: Johnson Looks To Close Out A Title On Sunday

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The NASCAR Sprint Cup Series is at the end of the line as the circuit comes to the Homestead-Miami Speedway for Sunday’s Ford Ecoboost 400 (3 PM ET, ESPN). It’s the final race of the season and it’s going to take a seismic chain of events to keep Jimmie Johnson from winning his sixth championship.

Johnson has opened his lead over Matt Kenseth to a commanding 28 points, as Kenseth has faded over the last couple weeks. Kevin Harvick still has a mathematical chance at 34 points out, but everything is predicated on a bad run by Johnson on Sunday.


With Johnson going for title #6, my first instinct is to compare him to Michael Jordan, who won six rings with the Chicago Bulls. Given that, maybe it’s ironic that MJ’s number 23 is also the magic number for Johnson on Sunday. If he finished 23rd or higher it doesn’t matter what Kenseth does, the championship race is over.

What then are the odds of Johnson having such a poor finish? I went back through all his results since the beginning of the 2008 season, a period that covers 215 races. Johnson finished lower than 23rd forty times in that timeframe. That represents an 18.6% chance that the door opens for Kenseth.

It’s not odds that leave you optimistic if you’re a Kenseth backer (as I am). But it’s not unthinkable either. Johnson’s poor finishes include four straight races this season from August 18-September 7, and it also includes his last two trips to Miami.


Kenseth got the weekend off to a good start when he won the pole position. It’s certainly not something that has a strong correlation to winning, but this is also a race that will be run under a different dynamic than any other in the season. Kenseth himself acknowledged that he pushed hard for the pole so he’d be in position to capitalize if Johnson had any early problems.

The betting odds for Sunday reflect that changed dynamic. Johnson, who normally is at or close to the favorite’s role–usually in the 4-1 to 6-1 range–has dropped all the way to 15-1. Clearly, the smart money is thinking that JJ will drive cautiously, more focused on avoiding a wreck rather than rolling the dice to win. In that same vein, Kenseth is a 7-2 favorite.

NASCAR Sprint Cup Series: One More In Miami

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The NASCAR Sprint Cup Series comes to close on Sunday afternoon in Miami with the running of the Ford-Ecoboost 400 at 2 PM ET on ESPN. We had a stunning turn of events last week, where Brad Keselowski not only made up a seven-point deficit against Jimmie Johnson for the lead, but blew past JJ and built up a 20-point cushion himself after a crash in Phoenix wiped out the leader. Now the only question left is whether turnabout will be fair play in Miami.

It’s going to take something incredibly dramatic for Johnson to catch Keselowski, and he’s the only driver with a chance. Even if JJ wins the race, Keselowski would need to finish just 15th to clinch the championship. And if Johnson finishes second or lower, Keselowski’s margin for error gets proportionally bigger, because it would mean Johnson didn’t get the bonus points that come with winning the race. Given that Keselowski has finished in the Top 10 in 23 of 35 races, there’s a lot that has to go right for JJ. We might further add that while Johnson has five wins—tied for the most, with Keselowski and Tony Stewart—when you say he’s won 5 of 35 races that cant’ engender optimism for a race that’s all but become must-win.

What it all boils down to is that we’re likely looking at an anticlimactic finish to what’s been an interesting year, starting with the crazy beginning at Daytona back in February and the fire on the track. Then there was Greg Biffle’s early lead, Carl Edwards’ fall from grace, Tony Stewart’s inability to run consistently and Jeff Gordon’s last-minute push to make the playoffs.

But according to TheSportsNotebook’s, NASCAR consultant, my brother Bill, no story will have more long-term consequences that Matt Kenseth’s decision to leave the Roush Fenway Racing team. We’ll see what this means for both Kenseth and the Fenway Racing Group. But the latter, as you might have guessed by its name, is the same ownership group that owns the Boston Red Sox. Apparently baseball isn’t the only sport where they’re having a hard time keeping star talent happy right now.

It’s been a great ride all season as we’ve followed the NASCAR drivers and learned about the tracks of America. TheSportsNotebook thanks Bill for his season-long insights and takes a chance and offers early congratulations to Keselowski, as he stands on the brink of his first Chase Cup.