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The Oregon Ducks BCS Chances: Are They Getting A Raw Deal?

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It’s seen as a foregone conclusion that an SEC team will get least one spot in the BCS National Championship Game in Miami on January 7. It’s seen as a further foregone conclusion that if USC upsets Notre Dame on Saturday night in Los Angeles, the SEC controls its destiny to get two slots, with Florida getting first crack if they can beat Florida State on the road. The team that’s getting left out in all this is the Oregon Ducks. Sitting at #5 in the BCS standings, the Ducks seem dependent on a complete crackup (see Monday’s BCS bowl projections for examples) to get any shot at a national title.

Is this right? In 2011, Alabama was given a second chance after an overtime loss at home. Is there a reason Oregon doesn’t deserve the same chance? In this article we’ll examine the Oregon Ducks BCS chances by comparing their body of work to Alabama, Georgia, and Florida. We’ll ask not only what will likely happen, but what should happen, with the overriding question being whether Chip Kelly’s team is getting a raw deal.

The first reality we have to focus on is the quality of the SEC, which drives the favorable rankings given the Tide, Dawgs & Gators, currently ranked 2-3-4 in the BCS. If you focus simply on this year, the SEC is not a very deep league. The bottom of the conference is awful, and the lower middle class softer than normal. The six power teams (add South Carolina, LSU & Texas A&M to the leading trio) are the best Gang of Six in the country. But a conference isn’t a Gang of Six. The result is that while SEC contenders have quality showcase wins, they lack depth in their resumes.

Furthermore, strength of schedule varies within a conference and Alabama is a prime example. Teams only play three of the seven teams in the opposite division. The SEC West-residing Tide were able to avoid Eastern foes Georgia, Florida and South Carolina. They avoided everyone of consequence in the other division! Even if you think the SEC is as good as in years past, ‘Bama’s been able to avoid it.

We’ll go through each the specifics on each team’s resume, but one fundamental divide separates Oregon from everyone else—the SEC teams have flashier-looking wins. Oregon has a higher number of good, solid wins. Ultimately, there won’t be a silver bullet answer to this question, because it will be about what voters value most. But at least at we can shed a little more light on the topic. Here’s each team’s body of work summarized…

OREGON: The Ducks have had four gimme games on their schedule—Washington State, Colorado, and Cal within the league, Tennessee Tech outside of it. Oregon has a solid run against good, bowl-bound teams, with their wins over Arizona, Washington, Arizona State and USC. The latter two wins were on the road. All were decisive. We can add to that non-conference games against Arkansas State and Fresno State, each of whom are tied for first in the Sun Belt and the Mountain West. For the record, any voters who don’t know anything about these teams shouldn’t be voting. Not every mid-major team is the same.

We can add to this a presumed win over Oregon State, which would be the best victory yet. The Beavers are #15 in the current rankings, have beaten UCLA within the league, and Wisconsin and BYU outside of it. Oregon will have to beat Oregon State on the road. In fact, the game is tough enough that we’re only presuming a win because for the sake of this article we’re doing so with all four teams under review.

ALABAMA: There are five cupcakes, including a presumed win on Saturday against Auburn. This also includes wins at Arkansas and at Tennessee, both of whom were terrible this season. Then add in Florida Atlantic and Western Carolina.  When you move up the ladder, there’s still issues. We don’t yet know if Ole Miss or Missouri will get bowl-eligible—each would have to win as an underdog this weekend—and that would be a further knock on the Tide schedule. And the non-conference opponents didn’t do Alabama any favors—Michigan proved to be less than people expected in the Big Ten, and the Big Ten itself proved to be a joke. At the mid-major level, Western Kentucky wasn’t the contender they were expected to be.

So Alabama’s got anywhere from 2-4 notable wins, two of which depend on teams scraping their way to 6-6 and two more that aren’t as good as they looked at first glance. What the Tide does have is a victory at LSU, and a presumed SEC Championship Game win over Georgia in Atlanta. Both wins would be better than Oregon’s best victory.

GEORGIA: Half of the Bulldog schedule is against teams bad enough to be dismissed from consideration—Tennessee, Kentucky, Auburn, Georgia Southern, Buffalo, Florida Atlantic. Then they have the same Ole Miss/Missouri problem that Alabama does. We could be looking at a schedule where two-thirds of the teams don’t make bowl games and only Vanderbilt qualifies as a solid win against a bowl team.

At the top level, Georgia’s win over Florida and presumed win over Alabama in the SEC title game would both be in neutral sites. Add to that the Vanderbilt game was at home, and we have a schedule whose toughest road win was Missouri—even if they make a bowl game, and even if you give Georgia a little extra credit since this was Mizzou’s first SEC home game with its attendant emotion, how impressed are you by this slate?

FLORIDA: It’s too bad the Gators aren’t in position to win the conference championship, because this is an elite schedule at the top. Assuming a win at Florida State on Saturday and pair that with a victory at Texas A&M and you have two road wins. Then there’s the home wins over Florida and LSU, with the road trip to Vanderbilt mixed in—let’s note that against a  schedule like this, those road trips to places like Vandy have a lot more trap potential than normal.

There are two above-average mid-major teams on the non-conference slate, Bowling Green and UL-Lafayette, although Florida did struggle with both of them. The Gators also beat Missouri, whose bowl fate is undecided. Only the games against Tennessee, Kentucky and Jacksonville State should be dismissed.

So where does Oregon fit against these three teams? I’ll start with what I think should be two easy decisions—Oregon’s body of work is better than Georgia’s. We can further add that Oregon’s loss came in overtime, while Georgia was blown out by South Carolina, 35-7. While the Dawgs were on the road, they’re the one team in this group of four that was genuinely humiliated. On the flip side, Florida’s schedule is tougher than Oregon’s and the Gators are rightfully ahead of Oregon on the pecking order.

Alabama is the closer call. If it were me, I’d vote Oregon, because as college football gets increasing parity with each passing year, it’s much harder to make your way through that slog of games against teams good enough to trip you up, but not good enough to catch voters’ attention. I can respect a vote for Alabama on the grounds that their two best wins (at LSU, Georgia) would be better than anything Oregon could offer, but I’d still prefer the broader, more consistent schedule that Chip Kelly’s team had to face.

One caveat—and a rather big one—to all this, is that I’d prefer never to vote a team that fails to win its conference into the national championship game, and on that basis, both Oregon and Florida would be gone from consideration. But in practice, this does happen, and it’s also very possible Oregon could still end up playing for the Pac-12 title (they just need to win and hope UCLA beats Stanford).

When we get to reality, the biggest reality is this—Alabama’s lead in the BCS for the #2 spot is huge and there is no way they can lose it without getting beat. Even if the Tide win the ugliest game imaginable against Georgia, while Oregon blows out Oregon State, then gets to the Pac-12 Championship Game and smokes UCLA, it would take huge tidal wave for Oregon to displace Alabama on style points alone.

Georgia is within striking distance for Oregon, but that’s right now—meaning that if Bulldogs beat the Tide, won’t they logically inherit all of Alabama’s political support? I would imagine so. If Oregon runs the two-game gauntlet I described above and does it in blowout fashion, maybe that could change, but right now you have to assume Georgia’s control of their own destiny is pretty solid.

Oregon is very close to Florida, and this is where the Pac-12 race could matter. It’s tough to see Oregon making any headway against a Gator team that just won at Florida State. But on December 1, Florida will be off and if the Ducks get some help, a blowout win over UCLA might push them over the top.

So in answer to the question of whether Oregon is getting a raw deal, I’d be inclined to say this—at least a little bit. And the bigger raw deal is that the question isn’t even being asked.

BCS Bowl Projections: Florida Joins Alabama In Losing Ground

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Alabama was the big loser on Saturday in their 29-24 loss to Texas A&M, falling from the #1 spot in the BCS standings down to #4 and putting themselves in need of substantial help to get back into the national championship picture. But there were other losers to. Let’s run through teams and conferences that are up against it, as we begin another round of BCS bowl projections.

*Florida’s narrow escape against UL-Lafayette—the Gators needed a blocked punt return on the final play of regulation to win 27-20—may have kept them alive for a major bowl game, but it put a crimp in their chances.

Coming into Saturday, Florida was in position to get into the top four nationally, which would have made them an automatic qualifier for a BCS at-large. They’re still sitting on sixth, but the Gators are behind both Alabama and Georgia—one of whom is guaranteed to win in the SEC Championship Game. Florida also lost considerable marquee appeal—the reality is they haven’t played a good game since they blew out South Carolina.

The end result is that the bowls are likely to have a choice as far as which SEC runner-up they want to pick. Florida will certainly be in that discussion. But they are now less attractive than Texas A&M, which has the marquee scalp of the season and the latest trendy quarterback in Johnny Manziel. I know we’re looking at a scenario where the Gators would be 11-1, the Aggies 10-2 and Florida beaten A&M head-to-head in College Station. But if you’re the Fiesta Bowl, who looks like a more marquee choice to you right now?

And if the SEC champ plays its way back into the title game and the Sugar gets to make a pick, doesn’t either A&M or LSU make more sense given geographic proximity? Florida needs help, and more importantly, they need to start playing better football before their finale against Florida State.

*The SEC in general is again being hurt by the ridiculous limitation of the number of at-large teams that can come from a single conference (A league can only send one additional team after its champion). I was as harsh as anyone on the idea that the league needed get both spots in the BCS National Championship Game last year. I’m all for the notion that all major conference champions should get a chance on the big stage, and I’m for making it easier to get midmajor conference champs into the BCS.

But when it comes to runner-ups, do we really need a rule that ensures the Big Ten actually has a chance at an at-large spot? It’s frightening and horrific thought, and before you slash your wrists, it’s not likely. But Michigan is #21 and if they win out—which would include a road win at Ohio State—they could move up to #14 and become eligible.  The SEC has the following teams in consideration for an at-large—the Alabama/Georgia loser, Texas A&M, Florida, South Carolina and LSU, all in the Top 10 of the BCS. With four at-large spots available, give one to Notre Dame, maybe one to Oklahoma or Clemson and let the SEC have at least two—in fact, give them three if South Carolina beats Clemson in a couple weeks.

*Which brings me to another loser and that’s Louisiana Tech. The WAC leader is the best hope for a midmajor crasher of the BCS, but they barely survived Texas State, 62-55. The Bulldogs held at 20th in the rankings, but they still need to move up four spots to qualify. And even at that they would need to pass a BCS conference champ in the rankings (La Tech is only an absolute automatic if they get to the top 12, which won’t happen). And when Nebraska survived a stiff challenge to Penn State and moved up to #14 in the process it removed the best chance for Louisiana Tech to pass a conference favorite. There’s still hope—Tech is ranked ahead of Wisconsin, who might pull an upset in the Big Ten title game. Tech is ranked ahead of everyone in the ACC’s Coastal Division, whose champ could upset Florida State in the ACC championship battle. But Tech’s chances of getting to the BCS without an upset realistically ended on Saturday.

*The Pac-12 knows now the only they can get an at-large bid is if they blow their national title hopes. When Oregon State lost to Stanford, it means that if Oregon wins out, all league runner-ups will have three losses. Oregon State still has two defeats, as does UCLA who leads the Pac-12 South. But the only way the Pac-12 can get two bids is if Oregon loses to one of them. A three-loss Pac-12 team likely isn’t even eligible, and even if they are, it wouldn’t compare to the prospect of bringing in undefeated Notre Dame as a replacement choice for Oregon.

*Louisville wasn’t going to play for the national title even if they were undefeated, but critics of the system would surely have loved to seen an unbeaten Cardinal team frozen out. It won’t happen now. Louisville’s ground game was non-existent in a 45-26 loss at Syracuse and they fell into a three-way tie with Cincinnati and Rutgers for the Big East lead. Louisville’s already beaten the Bearcats, so this league likely still comes down to Louisville-Rutgers on the final Thursday night, November 29.

Before we go into the final BCS bowl projections, a closing word on Alabama. Don’t write off the Tide just yet. Oregon has a gauntlet of three games to run, with Stanford, Oregon State and the Pac-12 title game (UCLA-USC winner). Kansas State has to play Texas on December 1. The game will be in Manhattan, but the Longhorns have talent, they can score points and with an 8-2 record, they could be in position to play their way into a BCS game themselves if they get help and Oklahoma loses. And Notre Dame has the season finale against USC. The Trojans look less imposing with each passing week, but the Irish don’t blow out Pitt or Boston College, so we should still expect a war in the Coliseum. Is it all that unthinkable that two of the three unbeatens lose and the SEC champ ends up back in?

The bigger question that has to concern Nick Saban is how good his team really is. I’ve been talking here at TheSportsNotebook how Alabama really hasn’t played anyone. But while I never thought they were head-and-shoulders above the competition, I also can’t say I thought the pass defense would be this bad. Both LSU and Texas A&M have exposed the Tide secondary and Georgia’s Aaron Murray is more than capable of doing the same.

I’m still giving ‘Bama the benefit of the doubt and picking them to win the SEC because I think Saban will have his team motivated for a prove-it-to-the-nation kind of performance, even if they can’t win the national title. But Dawgs-Tide looks a lot better right now than it did a couple weeks ago.

BCS NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME: Oregon-Kansas State
Rose: Nebraska-Notre Dame
Fiesta: Oklahoma-Texas A&M
Sugar: Alabama-Clemson
Orange: Florida State-Rutgers

Selection Note: I am presuming Oregon will end up #1, as BCS experts say winning those last three games will push them past Kansas State. This would give the Rose the first selection and the opportunity to get Notre Dame. The Fiesta would then pick to replace Kansas State, and then the selection order for this season also puts that bowl first in line, so under this scenario, the Fiesta makes two straight picks.

South Carolina-Florida Highlights College Football Week 8

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The run of big games continues for South Carolina with their biggest battle yet, as they travel to play Florida on Saturday afternoon. The Gamecocks are #7 in the BCS standings, while the Gators are #2, but more important, the winner of this game controls its fate in the SEC East the rest of the way.

South Carolina may have a loss, while Florida is still unbeaten, but the stakes for Saturday are virtually the same—win, and you’re alive for a national championship. Lose, and you’re angling for an at-large BCS bid or a Capital One Bowl slot.

There will be no major contrast in styles from Gainesville. Both teams like to run the ball, South Carolina with Marcus Lattimore and Florida with Mike Gillislee. Both teams play stout defense, especially against the run, so we can expect a very physical game in the line of scrimmage. Both try and manage the game with their quarterbacks, Connor Shaw for the Gamecocks and Jeff Driskell for the Gators. Neither offense has had a lot of success throwing to the wide receivers.

Within this common framework there are subtle differences that will end up deciding the game. Driskell is more mobile with his feet, while Shaw is more efficient in the short passing game. That distinction is a horse apiece and who has the edge will depend on factors behind the quarterback’s control—e.g., if Florida misses some tackles in the secondary, Shaw’s efficiency will have greater impact, but if the teams struggle to protect the passer, Driskell’s ability to bail himself out could be the swing factor.

Where South Carolina has an edge is the explosive quality they bring with Lattimore. He’s currently listed as questionable with a hip injury, but for the time being I’m presuming he’s going to play.

Meaning no disrespect to the performance Gillislee has given Florida, the South Carolina running back is a unique physical specimen capable of game-changing plays. And not just when he takes the handoff—Lattimore is effective catching the ball out of the backfield, giving Steve Spurrier a variety of ways to get him the ball.

Where Florida has the edge is venue—I don’ t think they’re as good as South Carolina, but playing in the Swamp is no small advantage. But at the end of the day, if you’re only edge is the homefield, I’m taking your opponent. I like South Carolina to win this game, and if I were at a betting window I like the fact I’d get 3.5 points even more.

TheSportsNotebook previewed the overall national landscape  yesterday, with a special focus on key games in the Big Ten’s Legends Division. There are two other significant games in college football Week 8 that we’ll hone in on here…

Kansas State-West Virginia: If the big SEC battle features two similar teams, the Big 12 showdown in Morgantown is about two teams who come at you in completely different ways. West Virginia wants a rapid pace, with Geno Smith serving as the equivalent of a point guard on the fast break, with receivers Tavon Austin and Stedman Bailey serving as the football version of wingmen.

The Wildcats can come at a defense in a more straightforward way, running the ball with John Hubert, and then their own versatile quarterback Collin Klein can make plays with his arm and his feet. He’s nowhere near as explosive as Smith, but Klein brings toughness and efficiency to the game.

Kansas State is undefeated and ranked 4th in the BCS, but you have to doubt that they could survive a loss and still play for a national championship. Unlike conference rival Oklahoma, the Wildcats don’t have a brand-name to sell, nor do they have a non-conference opponent like Notre Dame (who visits OU next Saturday). With the Big 12 being the only major conference without a December 1 championship game, their champ won’t get much benefit of the doubt in a close vote. I think Kansas State has to go 12-0 if they want to be in Miami on January 7.

While Kansas State thinks about Miami in January, West Virginia fans have to think about December in New York. Smith’s incredible games against Baylor and Texas vaulted him to clear front-runner status for the Heisman Trophy. The quarterback did not play well last week in Texas Tech, and while the lack of clear challengers haven’t denied Smith his leading man status, you have to assume his cushion is gone. The West Virginia quarterback needs to play a big game when the voters are watching and this one is it.

So how big is Kansas State-West Virginia? Other than being decisive moments for one team’s national title hopes and one player’s Heisman Trophy prospects, and very significant in a competitive conference race, it’s no big deal at all. Kansas State is getting three, and I’ll take them to win outright. I like teams that play real football over those that play flag football.

UL Monroe-Western Kentucky: Yes, I realize by saying I consider this game one of the best three on the board for Saturday, I have thrust myself to a #1 ranking in the You Have Absolutely Got To Get A Life race, and unlike Geno Smith, I’ve got plenty of cushion to give. But the Sun Belt Conference has played good football this year, and the winner of this game will be the clear front-runner the rest of the way.

It’s also a genuine contrast-in-styles battle. Monroe can spread the field out with Kolton Browning at quarterback, while Western Kentucky is more effective if the pace of the game is slowed. Monroe is a little bit more balanced, thanks to the running of Jyruss Edwards, but the Warhawks lost depth at the position with an injury to Centarius Donald.

What the Hilltoppers bring to the table is running back Antonio Andrews, who already has 655 yards through six games and also catches passes out of the backfield. Because of his position, he’s at a disadvantage in the race for conference MVP with Browning, but UL-Monroe does not have a great defense, and there’s no reason Andrews can’t have a big game.

Western Kentucky may not be the explosive offensive team, but they are getting respect in Las Vegas, slotted as a 3.5 point favorite. As impressed as I’ve been with Browning and Monroe, I picked Western to win this conference at the start of the season, and they’ve given me no reason to abandon them on their homefield.