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Deshaun Thomas

Ohio State Basketball Is On The Clock

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Ohio State basketball has been lurking all season long in the Big Ten picture. Even though the Buckeyes were ranked in the top five nationally to start the season, they were behind more heralded teams in Indiana and Michigan. And even though they’re right in the conference race coming into this week, it’s still the Hoosiers and Wolverines getting the attention. Ohio State can change all that in the coming week. It starts tonight with a visit to play Michigan (9 PM ET, ESPN) and then concludes on Sunday with a home date against Indiana (1 PM ET, CBS). With Ohio State now on the clock, it’s time to take a closer look at their prospects of competing for a Big Ten crown and possibly more in March.

If you’ve seen any of the Buckeyes’ games so far this year, you’ve undoubtedly heard about forward Deshaun Thomas and that he essentially carries this team. That’s a correct assessment. Thomas does it all. He scores 20 ppg and can go inside or float to the three-point line where he hits 40 percent. Thomas is the frontrunner for Big Ten Player of the Year. The issue is that there’s only one other scorer—junior guard Lenzelle Smith, who’s also scoring in double figures.

Ohio State can survive some scoring imbalance—Thomas is good enough to cover for a lot of ills, and junior point guard Aaron Craft is capable of helping out Smith with the scoring if need be. Craft averages nine points a game, but his offensive role is more in distribution and he’s a lockdown defender on the perimeter. I think the bigger concern head coach Thad Matta faces is the lack of rebounding help. Because Thomas moves to the perimeter so frequently, he only averages six rebounds a game. If Ohio State is going to fulfill its potential then, either Evan Ravenel has to improve his rebounding, or sophomore forward Sam Thompson has to score more, and thereby enable Thomas to spend more time in the post.

Thomas’ consistency is frankly amazing. Whether its Ohio State’s good Big Ten wins—home victories over Michigan and Wisconsin, or their losses—road defeats at Illinois and Michigan State—the Player of the Year frontrunner knocks down his 20-plus and is usually at least reasonably efficient in doing so. Contrary to what you might think, the key differentiating factors aren’t offensive balance— of which, the Buckeyes don’t have any regardless.  Rather, it’s their defense, and to a lesser extent, rebounding.

Ohio State held both Michigan and Wisconsin to sub-40 percent shooting from the floor, while Illinois and Michigan State were up in the mid-to-high 40s. If we trace the season back into November and look at losses to Duke and Kansas, you see the Blue Devils hitting 47 percent and the Jayhawks sizzling at 51 percent.  And in both of those losses, the Buckeyes got very poor shooting from the perimeter, with Craft and Smith tossing up bricks.

The rebounding factor was key in a win over Michigan, but it wasn’t the inside players doing it. Smith grabbed 10 rebounds in that January 13 victory and on the flip side, the Michigan State loss was, in large part, the result of a rebound deficit, because the Spartan guards were better going to the glass. The positive for Matta is that in spite of some of the individual flaws his players have with regards to rebounding, they aren’t getting pounded on the glass, and that allows games to swing more on defensive play, which his guards can execute.

I’ve got a tough time seeing how Ohio State can win the Big Ten this year, given the quality of the conference competition and the lack of inside play. But Matta is a coach, and Thomas, is a player, who can figure out ways to cover for shortcomings, and if someone like Smith can step up with some big games in key spots, Ohio State’s got a shot. Those big games are now at hand and by late Sunday afternoon we shouldn’t have to wonder where Ohio State stands anymore.

MICHIGAN STATE HANGS WITH THE LEADERS

Michigan State is another team that’s tied with Michigan and Ohio State for second place, and just a game back of Indiana in the conference race. Like Ohio State, they are projected as a #3 seed in the latest projections of ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi that came out this morning. Tom Izzo is getting it down with a backcourt that has Keith Appling doing an excellent job both scoring and running the show, and Branden Dawson crashing the glass from the wing. Junior center Adriean Payne is the proto-type tough rebounder that Izzo has consistently developed in East Lansing.

The Spartans already have the aforementioned win over Ohio State and they’ve got a big road win at Wisconsin. The only conference losses are credible defeats at Minnesota and at Indiana. Sparty gets a return trip from the Gophers on Wednesday night, then they host Michigan on February 12 and host Indiana on February 19. Don’t be surprised to see Izzo back atop the conference standings in a couple weeks.

[Editor’s note: Gary Harris expects to be able to play for the Spartans, however Travis Trice is questionable at this time for the MSU/Minnesota game on Wednesday.  Lack of depth could be a concern for Michigan State in this game if one, or both, of these players aren’t able to play.]

Big Ten Basketball Race Comes To Crisler Arena Tonight

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Big Ten basketball comes under the ESPN spotlight on Tuesdays and tonight it’s Michigan-Michigan State in Ann Arbor. MSU is tied for first in the conference with Illinois, each with a 4-1 record, while Michigan and Ohio State are each 4-2. The league champion looks all but certain to come out of this quartet—I mean no disrespect to Purdue at 3-2, but the Boilers are rebuilding, while Wisconsin and Indiana each have three league losses. So let’s at the Big Ten’s top four teams and break them down…

Michigan State (15-3, 4-1): It was supposed to a rebuilding year for Tom Izzo’s program too, but the Spartan head coach keeps finding a cadre of players who hit the boards hard and keep the team in games. Draymond Green is the stud in the post, averaging 16 points and 10 rebounds a game, but what’s really impressive is the slew of depth Izzo brings off the bench. Adrien Payne and Derrick Nix don’t stand out, but they each grab 4-5 rebounds a game, as does Branden Dawson. That’s called bringing a complete team effort to rebounding the ball and it’s what Izzo has consistently produced through his Hall of Fame-caliber run in East Lansing. Think Izzo’s happy he turned down the “opportunity” to go to the Cleveland Cavaliers in the summer of 2010?

Keith Appling leads a backcourt that isn’t as deep, but can at least provide some offense. Appling is averaging 13 ppg and shoots the ball well from the floor. The same goes for Brandon Wood. What neither does really well is hit from behind the arc, so MSU will be vulnerable in games where an opponent gets heated up.

Illinois (15-3, 4-1): It was a week ago tonight that Illini guard Brandon Paul stunned Ohio State with a 43-point showing and led the way to a win over the Buckeyes that really re-shaped the conference race. It marked Illinois as a contender and pulled preseason favorite Ohio State clearly back to the pack. Bruce Weber still has some concerns to deal with—the defense does not always play at a championship level. Purdue shot 56 percent against Illinois, in the one conference loss, and the Illini also allowed Nebraska to hit 50 percent. It goes without saying you don’t want to be in spots where Paul has to hang 40-plus for the team to beat quality opponents.

Paul has a good running mate in the backcourt with D.J. Richardson, who’s not only a double-digit scorer, but is a solid three-point shooter, making him a perfect foil for 7’1” sophomore center Meyers Leonard who’s averaging 13/8. That’s a good inside-outside combo to put together around Paul, and if third guard Sam Maniscalco can get beyond his nagging ankle injury, Weber will have a deep backcourt, good three-point shooter, solid post option and go-to star. That’s a championship formula, as long as they D it up.

Ohio State (14-4, 4-2): They were the #1 team in the country going into last year’s NCAA Tournament and with sophomore forward Jared Sullinger coming back, this year was supposed to be more of the same. It still might, but the Buckeyes are looking very beatable in the Big Ten. The Notebook broke them down more extensively last week in the lineup, looking at the key foursome of Sullinger, DeShaun Thomas, William Buford and Aaron Craft. In looking at the losses to Indiana and Illinois, we can look at the backcourt. They gave up the aforementioned 43 to Paul, and against IU there were 17 turnovers. What the Buckeyes have going for them is a demonstrated ability to blow people out when they’re clicking, with an average victory margin of 27.5 points in their four Big Ten wins. If they can find a way to win close games too, those preseason expectations are still well within reach.

Michigan (14-4, 4-2): The talent doesn’t overwhelm you in Ann Arbor, at least beyond 6’6” sophomore guard Tim Hardaway Jr, who’s averaging 16 ppg. John Beilein is still looking for consistent production down low. Sophomores Evan Smotrycz and Jordan Morgan are respectable rebounders, but neither has really emerged as a top-flight offensive option at this stage of their careers. In the backcourt, senior Zack Novak is a decent shooter, but won’t wake up memories of Glen Rice anytime soon. The pleasant surprise has been the play of freshman point guard Trey Burke, who’s running the show and doing a good enough job with his shot to make defenses come out and play him.

The Wolverines are the one shaky team among this foursome, with narrow wins over Minnesota and Northwestern and a decisive loss to Iowa. I suspect they’re going to fall back into the group with Purdue, Wisconsin and Indiana that will compete for an NCAA Tournament bid and be a live spoiler, but not a true championship contender. We are about to find out right now. Starting tonight, Michigan’s coming Big Ten schedule is Michigan State, at Purdue, at Ohio State, Indiana and at Michigan State. Plus a non-conference trip to Arkansas comes up this weekend. That schedule stretch will be completed on Super Bowl Sunday and we’ll know beyond a doubt how good Michigan is. The test starts tonight in front of the home crowd at Crisler.

Inside Ohio State Hoops

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Ohio State gets the ESPN stage tonight at Illinois (9 PM ET), as we start the run of Tuesdays being Big Ten-SEC night for a college hoops doubleheader. The Buckeyes are 15-2 and ranked #5 in the country. Coming off a season in which they won the Big Ten and earned a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament before losing in the Sweet 16 to Kentucky, Ohio State has great expectations for this year’s team, especially when forward Jared Sullinger decided to return for his sophomore season. The record and ranking suggest they’re living up to it, although they are one of five Big Ten teams trailing league leader Michigan State by a half-game. Let’s break down the Ohio State lineup and see what the future might hold…

Jared Sullinger (6’9” Sophomore): He’s the man the hopes in Columbus are built around and is averaging 17 points and 10 rebounds a game. Sullinger is a pure post player. He’s not a hybrid that you’ll see step out and take three-point shots. Given that, I would like to see a little more dominance on the glass against good teams. In the three toughest opponents he’s faced—Florida, Duke and Indiana, Sullinger has yet to have a 10-plus rebound game. That’s a high bar to set, and in fairness he’s not been  AWOL in any of those games. The one game he was out was Kansas, and the Buckeyes lost that one. I only set the 10-rebound benchmark because Ohio State’s expectations are so high and Sullinger has to be the man that puts them on his back.

DeShaun Thomas (6’7” Sophomore): Thomas’ emergence this season has been huge in getting Sullinger some help down low. Thomas averages 15 points a game, and while he’s not a great rebounder, this is the forward who can step out and drain it from behind the arc. Like Sullinger, Thomas shoots a good percentage from the floor and his outside touch makes him a big X-factor against good teams.

Lenzell Smith (6’4” Sophomore): Smith is the weak link in this starting lineup, averaging five points a game and he’s a 47 percent foul shooter. His big moment might be in March when Ohio State’s trying to hold a slim lead and an opponent forces the ball to Smith so they can foul him. Then those free throws decide how a 19-year old kid will be remembered in Columbus. I’m getting ahead of myself in the hypotheticals here, but right now Smith is a non-factor in this lineup.

William Buford (6’6” Senior): The veteran is the big scorer on the wings. He shoots a respectable 44 percent from the floor and 36 percent from behind the arc. You want the ball in his hands at the end of games as a vet who can hit his free throws. Buford has also played big in the biggest games—21 points against Florida, 20 against Duke and 21 at Kansas. At least until New Year’s Eve in Indiana when the Hoosiers held him to eight. The fact Ohio State lost that game tells you something about the importance of Buford’s scoring. He’s  the second-most important player on the team behind Sullinger.

Aaron Craft (6’2” Sophomore): Craft runs the show and averages a solid five assists a game. The surest way to cause problems for the Buckeyes is to force Craft into turnovers and that’s what Indiana was able to do. Craft is a pretty good shooter from the floor, so you can’t back off him and play the pass. But at the free throw line he’s only 68 percent and this is the guy who’s going to have to break pressure in close games down the stretch.

This lineup overall is nicely balanced, with Sullinger being a pure post man, something that’s hard to find in college hoops, with Buford handling the backcourt scoring, Craft distributing and Thomas working as a solid support player. The problems this team has is depth and experience. You may have noted that four of the starters are sophomores, and while this matters a lot less than it once did, thanks to all the early entries for the NBA, it still has to be something that concerns head coach Thad Matta. Depth is also a critical factor. There’s no one beyond the starting five really accumulating notable minutes and even with the starting five, Smith is a dead spot. Ohio State’s Core Four of Sullinger, Thomas, Buford and Craft is going to have to carry them.

After tonight’s game at Illinois, Ohio State gets a rematch on Sunday with Indiana (4:30 PM ET, CBS). It looks like the best way to beat the Buckeyes is to create some flow problems in the backcourt and get Craft to turn the ball over. Illinois has a good guard combination in D.J. Richardson and Brandon Paul, although Richardson is nursing an ankle injury. He’ll play tonight, but who knows what the effectiveness level will be. Illinois is also missing third guard Sam Manicalco, so for this night Bruce Weber has a bigger depth problem than Matta. Then it’s the rematch with Indiana, a must-win game. Ohio State lost the first game because they turned it over 17 times. While IU is tough down low with Cody Zeller at center, the Buckeyes beat them on the glass, an area they’ve dominating in the Big Ten. With homecourt advantage and perhaps less sloppy play, Ohio State can get two wins this week.

Wins over Illinois and Indiana are followed by an easy week with games against Nebraska and Penn state. If Ohio State is 7-1 in conference play by then, the Big Ten schedule can start for real on January 29 when they play Michigan and usher in a set of four tough gamest that include a battle with Michigan State.

So can Ohio State fulfill its promise? I have deep doubts, due to the lack of depth. I would still pick them to win the Big Ten, but in a much more balanced race than was originally anticipated and I see them a step behind a team like North Carolina or even Baylor, who could be the ones standing in the way of a national title.