Davey Johnson Nationals

April 17 2012

The Cream Of The Crop For The Washington Nationals

Dan Flaherty Uncategorized Davey Johnson Nationals, Gio Gonzalez Nationals, Jayson Werth Nationals, Jordan Zimmerman Nationals, Michael Morse Nationals, Ryan Zimmerman Nationals, Stephen Strasburg Nationals, Washington Nationals lineup, Washington Nationals pitching, Wilson Ramos Nationals

2012 was supposed to be the year for the Washington Nationals, where they at least posted their first winning season since moving to D.C. from Montreal in 2004 and made a run at the playoffs. To use political parlance in this election year, let’s say that the early returns are looking good for the Nats, as they’re off to an 8-3 start and lead the National League East at this early date. Washington’s goals for the season are modest—85 wins would fulfill the goal of a winning year with room to spare, and might be enough to steal one of the two wild-card berths. At the very least it keeps them in contention. Therefore, if the Nats just get solid years from their top-level players, they’ll have enough to do that. With that in mind, TheSportsNotebook takes a look at the stars inside the D.C. Beltway.

One of Washington’s biggest stars is in the dugout. Having Davey Johnson as manager is another reason I feel confident in orientating this article around the upper crust, rather than focus on depth. As important is depth is, it’s often something a manager can help create, through finding the right niche for players to fill. No manager can create stars, or make stars play like stars (how’s that for redundant use of a word), so the ultimate verdict of the Nats’ season comes down to the top three starters—Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez and Jordan Zimmerman, along with four key parts in the everyday lineup—third baseman Ryan Zimmerman, rightfielder Jayson Werth, first base/left field Michael Morse and catcher Wilson Ramos. Let’s run through this group…

Stephen Strasburg: With him being only 23 years old and missing most of 2011 after elbow surgery it seems surprising, at least to me, that he’s already got twenty career starts. His ERA is a sparkling 2.35, and most importantly he’s off to a good start in 2012. This is the year he had to answer the bell is the team’s Opening Day starter, and his three outings, including last night over Houston, have produced a 2-0 record, a 1.42 ERA and 19 strikeouts in 19 innings. Yeah, I’d say he’s worthy of all the hype that surrounded his selection with the first pick in the 2010 amateur draft.

Gio Gonzalez: I still can’t believe the Nats got this 26-year-old stud out of Oakland for what amounted to nothing more than an autographed picture of President Obama and Speaker Boehner at the State of the Union address. Over the past two seasons in Oakland, Gonzalez won 31 games and his ERAs were in the 3.10 to 3.20 range both times. He went over 200 innings both years. While pitching in Oakland’s spacious park was a big help, so is not having to face a DH anymore in the National League. Gonzalez’s first start as a Nat was less than stellar, as he got roughed up in Wrigley Field, but he came back with a strong outing over Cincinnati, and takes the ball tonight against Houston.

Jordan Zimmerman: He was the unsung hero of last year’s staff, getting his first chance at regular major league work at age 24. He threw 161 IP and posted a 3.18 ERA. There’s always the concern of it being a fluke, especially given that he didn’t have a Strasburg-like resume coming in, but Zimmerman’s first two starts this year have been dominant, averaging seven innings an outing with a buck-42 ERA.

Ryan Zimmerman: Can the third baseman stay healthy? His home run totals have gone from 33 to 25 to 12 over the last three years. Now last season he was injured so the raw numbers are going to go down, but he still got nearly 400 at-bats, so even pro-rated, his power has been dropping. Again, I’m giving him the benefit of the doubt and assuming he wasn’t fully healthy when he did play. But whatever the reason, Johnson needs Zimmerman to have a big year, which we’ll define as slugging over .500 and having an OBP over .360, while getting 500 at-bats. Zimmerman met all those benchmarks in 2010-11.

Jayson Werth: I’m fully prepared to write off his terrible 2011 season as the result of the pressure that comes with signing a contract for over $100 million. This is an excuse I’ll give to new free agents across the board, but I have to vent about how ridiculous it is—if you give a guy the keys to the vault, aren’t pressures to produce a given? But reality tells us that players do need an adjustment period, so I think Werth’s going to return to the player he was in Philly where he hit the benchmarks I outlined for Zimmerman above. And Werth’s early returns are as good as the team’s (surely no coincidence), as he’s hitting .341, drawing walks and slugging .432—not great, but tolerable for a small sample size that hasn’t given the player time to heat up.

Michael Morse—The first piece of bad news comes here, as a bad back will have Morse on the disabled list for the next six weeks. He languished in obscurity in Seattle before the Nats gave him a chance in 2010, and in part-time duty he had an OBP/Slugging line of .352/.519 and popped 15 home runs. Upgraded to full-time last year, Morse posted a .360/.440 line and went deep 31 times. He can play both first base and left field. The big question on his return will be whether the back is fully healed and will allow him to drive the ball for power.

Wilson Ramos—I flat-out love this kid. The 24-year-old catcher broke in last year and had a .334/.445 line. He’s off to a slow start in 2012, but in this lineup he only needs to be good fifth or sixth-place hitter and there’s plenty of time to grow into that.

If the Nationals get big years from these players, it will have them in the mid-80s for wins, which fulfills their preseason goals. Then if you get solid work from players like second baseman Danny Espinosa and veteran pickups like Edwin Jackson in the rotation and Brad Lidge in the bullpen, you can think a little bigger. That will be a topic for another day. For now, let’s look to May 6 as the conclusion of the early evaluation period for the Nationals. Between now and then, they’ll finish up this series with Houston, have Miami come to town, go west to face the Dodgers and Padres, come back home to play Arizona and then that first weekend in May sees the Phillies come to town. The 6^th is the series finale and will be on Sunday Night baseball from D.C. If Johnson’s team keeps playing steady baseball, it’s got the potential to be an exciting early season night on the East Coast.

March 23 2012

MLB March Report: Washington Nationals

Dan Flaherty Uncategorized Davey Johnson Nationals, Washington Nationals pitching, Washington Nationals power hitters, Washington Nationals predictions, Washington Nationals previews, Washington Nationals spring

The nation’s capital is where TheSportsNotebook stops today in its March run of major league baseball. The Washington Nationals have never had a winning season moving from Montreal in 2004. They have never made the playoffs in D.C. (even in Montreal they only made it in 1981). Expectations are high among Nationals’ fans to at least end the first streak and to give a real run at ending the second. TheSportsNotebook evaluates the personnel of a team that went 80-81 a year ago (c’mon MLB, let them play a makeup a game and try and get to .500!) to see if incremental improvement is in the cards. We’ll use our usual measuring sticks of the ability to get on base, hit for power, starting pitching and relief pitching.

ABILITY TO GET ON BASE: I don’t like what I see here, as the Nationals have few players—if any for that matter, that can be really effective in setting the table. The power hitters, whom we’ll look at momentarily are good here, but you clearly want them to be in RBI situations or to hang a crooked number if they good deep. If we determine that the run producers have to be Michael Morse, Jayson Werth and Ryan Zimmerman who does that leave us with? Catcher Wilson Ramos is respectable at getting on base, and has decent pop. After that, Danny Espinosa, Ian Desmond, and whomever wins the centerfield job, Roger Bernardina or Rick Ankiel, are liabilities.

POWER: The offensive outlook for Davey Johnson looks good here. Morse is 30 years old and got his first chance at regular playing time over the past two seasons. In a “where has this guy been hiding” scenario, he’s consistently gone deep, slugged over .500 and puts up solid OBPs in the .360 range. Zimmerman has seen his power decline a bit the last couple years, but he hasn’t been completely healthy. He looks to be fine this spring and is a 25-30 HR man. First baseman Adam LaRoche hit exactly 25 home runs a year from 2008-10 before a bad season last year, but there’s no reason he can’t bounce back. Espinosa has atypical power for a second baseman, popping 21 out of the park. Ramos is a contributor in this area. And the big X-factor is Jayson Werth. After becoming the franchise’s $100 million man last offseason he struggled through an awful year. Was it just the pressure of it being the first year under his big contract, or is Werth ill-suited to be the main gun in an offense after being able to hide behind names like Ryan Howard and Chase Utley in Philadelphia? For this year anyway, I think Werth deserves the benefit of the doubt and I’m betting on a return to career norms. Up and down the lineup, this team can take you deep.

STARTING PITCHING: All of the media air in the room is going to be sucked up by Stephen Strasburg, the 23-year-old phenom who is finally healthy and ready to pitch on Opening Day. In 17 career starts Strasburg’s ERA is 2.54, so we can understand where the hype is coming from. Now he has to stay healthy and show he can handle lineups as they get their second and third looks at him later in the season. Washington acquired Gio Gonzalez from Oakland, a great addition o the staff. Over the last two years Gonzalez has gone to the post 65 times with an ERA close to 3. While he leaves the comfort of Oakland’s pitcher-friendly ballpark, he also leaves the aggravation of the designated hitter. Jordan Zimmerman is another good young arm, who made 26 starts last year and posted a 3.18 ERA. John Lannan has quietly become very consistent. Over the last four years he’s had three seasons—including last year—of 30-plus starts and a sub-4 ERA. And in another great acquisition, the Nats added Edwin Jackson. Is it just me, or should Jackson be a lot older than 28 years old? He’s had ERAs throughout his career from the mid-3s to mid-4s. Most of that has been in the American League, but he was a big trade deadline addition for St. Louis last year in their improbable World Series run. Along with Werth, he gives this still-unproven team a veteran that’s gone the distance. The starting pitching is good enough that promising Ross Detwiler, who had a 3.00 ERA with ten starts can’t find a place to pitch.

RELIEF PITCHING: This part of the team could go either way. The setup situation looks very good. Tyler Clippard has quietly pitched at least 60 innings (a good number for a short reliever) for three consecutive seasons, with ERAs from a low of 1.83 to a high of 3.07. Sean Burnett has been similarly consistent, albeit without the high ceiling. Young Henry Rodriguez broke in at age 24 last year and had a respectable 3.56 ERA—not great in the National League, but certainly enough to be a solid arm when a starter has to leave after five or six innings. The closer situation is what will swing this. Drew Storen was fantastic in this role last year, closing 42 of 48 save chances with a 2.75 ERA. But he hasn’t pitched this spring thanks to inflammation of the elbow. An MRI shows no major damage…but he still hasn’t pitched this spring. Veteran Brad Lidge is on hand to either help in setup or step in at closer. The 35-year-old has been effective the last two seasons in Philadelphia when healthy, but the latter is a big qualifier. If Johnson has a healthy closer he’s got a great bullpen. If he doesn’t the skipper has the arms and the savvy to piece together the end of games, but it will be a lot more nerve-wracking and any hope of late-game dominance is out the window.

LAS VEGAS OVER/UNDER WIN TOTAL: 84—I like this pitching staff and Johnson’s record of success with the Mets, Reds and Orioles—three organizations that have not exactly been synonymous with excellence—means I’ll take the Over, but I do with a little nervousness. This is a team not used to dealing with expectations and they’re a definite a media darling this spring. They’ve got the practical concern about getting runners on base consistently, and teams like that can hit some bad summer slumps as power shortages come and go. The NL East won’t give any easy games. Since my own rules require me to make a pick, I’m taking the Over, but this isn’t one where I’d put my money where my mouth is.