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Dallas Mavericks playoff chances

NBA Coverage: Breaking Down The Dallas Disappointment

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When it comes to disappointments, the Dallas Mavericks have gotten off the hook when it comes to media pressure this season. All of the oxygen in the room has been sucked up by the Los Angeles Lakers. Then you can add in that Dallas has been further submerged by the success of the other two teams in the Lone Star State. San Antonio just keeps churning out wins, while Houston is the only NBA team to have already exceeded its preseason Las Vegas win projection.

Trade deadline talk took up more airtime, though the 3 PM ET deadline passed today without major incident. Finally let’s add in the fact that Dirk Nowitzki missed games in the early part of the season, so the Mavericks were tacitly off a lot of radars to begin with. Nonetheless, Dirk’s been back since Christmas, and the Mavs are still on the outside looking in the Western Conference playoff picture, with a 24-29 record. Therefore, TheSportsNotebook’s NBA coverage today hones on what the problem is in Big D and whether there’s still time to turn it around and at least squeak out the #8 seed.

When you look at Dallas’ complete body of work the first thing that has to jump out is how bad the rebounding is. The Mavericks rank 27th in the league in rebound rate. The defense has also declined, ranking 20th in efficiency. This isn’t a franchise with a defensive reputation, but they were 8th a year ago, and 7th in their championship year of 2011. In fact the last time Dallas was in the bottom of half of the NBA on defense was 2009 when they were 17th. So this is a very shaky defensive team that doesn’t close out possessions when they do force a miss.

There are some reasonable excuses that can be put forth. The season-long data obviously includes the games Nowitzki misses. Another big man, 7-foot center Chris Kaman has been out with a concussion since January 30. He’s started to do non-contact drills in practice the last couple days and the Mavs really need him back. The front line is rounded out with Shawn Marion and Elton Brand, ages 34 and 33 respectively. Combined with Dirk, this makes for a frontcourt that’s long in the tooth.

Dallas invested in the backcourt during the offseason, bringing in Darren Collison and O.J. Mayo. It’s turned out to be a pretty good tandem. Mayo is averaging 18 points a game and does it with efficient shooting both from the floor and from three-point range. Collison shoots 48 percent from the floor himself and both players are decent distributors. There’s veteran depth in the backcourt with 38-year-old Derek Fisher who knows something about winning, even if he’s not productive on the stat sheet. And there’s 36-year-old Vince Carter who knows something about being productive on the stat sheet even if he’s not winning.

Even allowing for the competitiveness of the Western Conference, the personnel is here to at least make the playoffs. Dallas has played modestly better since Nowitzki’s return on December 23. The overall before and after records don’t show it, at 12-15 without and 12-14 since the return. But that includes losing the first four games Dirk was back, when he was presumably still playing his way into shape. Dallas stabilized in January, at 7-8 and has gotten on a nice little run in February, winning five of seven this month.

Thus, the question is whether the improved play of February is a sign of an impending stretch drive. Here’s a run through each game of the 5-2 stretch with a special focus on the question of rebounding…

Feb 1: at Phoenix (109-99)–Brand and Marion each have double-digit rebounds, keying an overall 51-46 edge on the glass. Dirk misses this game.

Feb 4: at Oklahoma City (91-112)–I’ll cut the Mavs slack here since there’s no denying they lack the talent to compete with the West’s upper crust. Dirk was back and ineffective and Dallas lost rebounding, and the Thunder were also hot from three-point range.

Feb 6: vs. Portland (105-99)–A good night on the glass, with a 46-42 advantage, again keyed by Marion and aided by Nowitzki. Mayo knocks down 28 points to be the offensive difference-maker.

Feb 9: vs. Golden State (116-91)–The best defensive performance of this stretch, holding the Warriors to 38 percent shooting. It makes up for a tough night rebounding, with Collison and Mayo playing a dominant game in the backcourt.

Feb 11: vs Atlanta (101-105)–A tough home loss is caused by Josh Smith and Al Horford owning the boards for the Hawks. Dirk scores 24, but Smith and Horford can eat up a weak rebounding team and that’s what happens here.

Feb 13: vs Sacramento (123-100)—It’s 51-44 for Dallas on rebounds and that advantage is thanks to a complete team-wide effort. It’s the best game in this sequence, although it’s also easily the worst opponent.

Feb 20: vs. Orlando (111-96)–Close to a wash on the glass, at 44-43 Dallas. But when you’re 27th in the league in a category and you play dead-even, that counts as a win. And it’s translated into a W on the court.

Dallas has held its own on the glass—if you go strictly by rebounding, that’s four wins and three losses, with the final win being close enough to call a push. It’s a demonstration of the fact that if the Mavs can continue to at least break even, they can keep winning games. The next question would be how much credibility do you give the competition?

It’s not a bad schedule stretch by any means, with three games against playoff teams and Portland at least being respectable. But it does have to be concerning that the three playoff teams—Oklahoma City, Golden State and Atlanta also are the three teams that beat the Mavs on the boards and two of them won the game.

If Dallas had some cushion that could be overcome by just taking care of the games against inferior teams. But they’re 4 ½ games behind Houston for the last playoff spot. It’s only three games in the loss column, but don’t forget the Lakers are a factor in this race as well. Portland might also be if they can turn around their recent slump. In the Western Conference, you have to assume it will take 42 or 43 wins to get in, and that means the Mavs have to win 18 or 19 times in their final 29 games.

Somewhere along the line that means beating quality teams and that starts Sunday. After a Friday night trip to New Orleans, the Mavs host the Lakers in a 1 PM ET tip on ABC. That’s followed by a home date with Milwaukee, followed by games with Memphis, Brooklyn and Houston. So it’s a Sunday preliminary bout, followed by four straight against teams currently in the playoffs. There’s no room for error and that means Marion, Brand and Nowitzki have to get tough on the glass.

 

NBA Western Conference: Four Teams On The Playoff Fringe

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The NBA Western Conference has produced the best low-seeded playoff teams in recent years, with quality competition showing up in the 7-8 spots. Today, TheSportsNotebook is going to take a look at four contenders for those spots in Dallas, Utah, Minnesota and Houston.

If you look at the standings you could also include Denver, but I think the Nuggets are going to move further up. You could also make a case for Portland, though I think the Blazers are going to move further down. You could further make a case for the Lakers, but we covered them already in the run-up-to Christmas Day team look-ins that have been going on here over the past several weeks. And ultimately it’s just hard to jam more than four teams into a column. So without further adieu, let’s take a brief look at the Mavs, Jazz, Rockets and Timberwolves.

Dallas (12-13): The 2011 champs are in the midst of a tough schedule stretch, with a Tuesday night win over Philadelphia ending a three-game losing skid on the road. It doesn’t get easier with a game against Miami on Thursday (9:30 PM ET, TNT), then road trips to Memphis, San Antonio and Oklahoma City. But the worst of the schedule will be over by December 27, and by then its possible Dirk Nowitzki will be back on the floor.

In Dirk’s absence, Dallas has relied on a deep backcourt that’s led by O.J. Mayo. The free-agent acquisition from Memphis has taken advantage of his opportunity to be the main man, and is averaging 20 ppg, while hitting 48 percent from the floor and 51 percent from three-point range. Darren Collision, brought in from Indiana, is a quality passer. There’s veteran leadership with Derek Fisher and veteran…well, veteran presence anyway in Vince Carter.

Where Dallas is issues is underneath, with Shawn Marion, Elton Brandon and Chris Kaman all on the high side of 30 and the Mavs rank 29th in the league in rebounding. Nowitzki will help that, but he’s still more of a perimeter big man. For Dallas to get into the playoffs is either going to require Dirk to put them on his back for significant stretches this season for a trade for some fresh legs underneath.

Utah (14-12): Utah’s got the inside strength that Dallas lacks, in Al Jefferson and Paul Millsap. The duo carried them into the final playoff spot a year ago, and they’ combine for 32 points/18 rebounds a night. Derrick Favors provides quality rebounding help off the bench.

The Jazz have further upgraded the backcourt by bringing in veterans Mo Williams and Randy Foye, who have provided a significant upgrade over last year’s point guard Devin Harris, as much as that pains me to say given Harris’ pedigree at the University of Wisconsin, this writer’s favorite college team. Williams is running the offense well and Foye is knocking 42 percent from behind the arc. Then you have the continued growth of Gordon Hayward, who averages 13 ppg and as a 6’8” two-guard, he’s not an easy player to match up with defensively.

Utah got a nice win in Brooklyn on Tuesday and now the road trip moves on to Indiana, Miami and Orlando. If they just pick up one more win, that’s a nice survival display on the road and I like their chances to be back in the playoffs. And if they played a non-Miami favorite from the East, I think the Jazz would be a threat to win a first-round series. In the West, life is a little less fair and they need to climb to at least #6 to have a shot at advancing.

Houston (12-12): Kevin McHale’s team is on a nice little run right now, beating the Celtics at home last week and then going into Madison Square Garden and beating the Knicks on what had to be a sweet homecoming for Jeremy Lin, who scored 22 points. Lin was the first of the two waves the Rockets made in free agency/trades, with the next being more of a tidal wave when they swung the deal to get James Harden from Oklahoma City.

Harden is averaging 25 ppg, and he’s still only 23-years-old. Lin is just a year older, so this is a young backcourt where the guards complement each other well , already drive the fastest pace in the NBA, and have plenty of time and space to grow. We can add in 26-year-old center Omar Asik, who’s averaging 10 points/11 rebounds and 23-year-old power forward Marcus Morris, who’s only averaging 8 ppg, but is showing a nice touch on the jumper, including from trey range. Chandler Parsons is the main three-point shooter—aside from Harden and is having a nice year at 15 ppg. But for the long haul, Houston would probably be better suited to have Parsons in a role situation, rather than starting at small forward.

Houston’s future is bright and fans can get a look at their present on Christmas night when they visit Chicago (8 PM ET, ESPN), an ideal spot to relax and enjoy a little hoops after a big holiday meal.

Minnesota (12-11): There’s discontent coming from the Twin Cities, where Kevin Love seems unhappy. It’s hard to defend Love, who just signed a lucrative long-term deal, and it’s also hard to blame him, as he seems destined to follow in Kevin Garnett’s shoes as a top player whose career gets buried on bad teams. But Love also creates some of his problems—while his numbers, at 19/14 per game, are impeccable, it’s inexcusable for a player who only hits one of every five three-point shots, to be chucking five a game. That’s what my rec league basketball team does on Wednesday nights, and with the same level of success.

What Love does well is rebound, and so does Andrei Kirilenko, making the Timberwolves the best in the NBA at crashing the glass. If you can do that consistently, you can contend for a playoff spot over the long dog days of January and February. What Minnesota needs is for the backcourt to get and stay healthy. Ricky Rubio is back after the knee surgery that derailed what looked to be a playoff run a year ago. Brandon Roy is trying to get his career back and going and he’s started practicing again after November knee surgery of his own.

If Rubio and Roy are healthy, and Love quits jacking up threes, Minnesota can make the playoffs. Even if just Rubio stays healthy, the T-Wolves can stay competitive and be fun to watch.