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Missouri Valley Basketball: Creighton Shows Its Cracks

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Creighton was the mid-major team of great expectations when the season began. They had one of the best players in the country in forward Doug McDermott and were coming off a year that saw them get to the second round of the NCAA Tournament**. The Bluejays still might get there—they are 17-3 overall—but a couple recent losses have raised some red flags, while conference rival Wichita State is on the move in what promises to be a good season-long joust in Missouri Valley basketball.

McDermott has been everything that was advertised, averaging 24 points/7 rebounds a game. The junior forward is supported in the backcourt by senior Grant Gibbs, a 10 ppg scorer, who also averages six assists per game. Senior forward Gregory Echenique averages 10/7 per night. Combined, this trio should give Creighton enough inside-out balance to compete at a high level.  Sophomore guard Austin Chatman has done an effective job knowing his role and distributing the ball well.

But on the floor, Creighton’s best wins don’t electrify you—they beat Wisconsin back in November when the Badgers were floundering around. Wins over Cal & Arizona State are nice, but hardly dazzle. The same goes for beating a disappointing St. Joe’s team. And the Bluejays lost to a team of similar caliber, Boise State, because Creighton didn’t play defense and didn’t rebound.

Still, at this time last week, only the Boise State loss marred the Creighton resume. Even a close loss at Wichita State last Saturday wasn’t alarming. But Creighton followed that up by losing at Drake. The pattern in all these games are that McDermott and Gibbs are the only ones who provide any scoring, the rebounding is usually subpar and the defense mediocre.

Now I’m not suggesting that Creighton needs to imitate the 1984 Georgetown Hoyas on the defensive end, but the Bluejays do need to lock down better than what they’ve been doing. They certainly need to hit the boards better. This, and the lack of a third asset in these games point to Echenique as the player who needs to step up. Get him on the glass and chip in 12-15 points in these games and they turn into wins. What’s more, that’s a reasonable expectation for a program that has to rely on dominance from its best players, and not just McDermott.

Creighton’s got a couple games to work things out. They play a bad Southern Illinois team on Sunday night, then have another should-be win against Missouri State. It’s the two games after, against competitive teams in Bradley and Indiana State that will tell us if the Bluejays are really getting back on track. Right now, Creighton is still ranked #17, and still projected as a #4 seed by ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi, but the rankings and projections were done before the Drake loss this week. The Bluejays need to plant their feet and reverse gear quickly, or a promising season can slip away.

WICHITA MOVES UP

Wichita State is moving ahead where Creighton falters. The Shockers are 18-2, and the head-to-head win over the Bluejays has given them a one-game lead in the Missouri Valley basketball race. Wichita is doing it with two quality forwards in Carl Hall and Cleanthony Early, who combine for 29 points/13 rebounds per night. The question is going to be the backcourt—there’s experience with Demetric Williams and Malcolm Armstead and good ball distribution, so the guards do the job in creating a basic flow of play. But Wichita has no one who can hit the three-point shot. We’ll see if that trips them up in a game against the Missouri Valley middle and costs them the conference lead.

In the meantime though, this is a traditionally competitive program that’s beaten good teams in Virginia Commonwealth and Southern Miss, both likely to be NCAA-bound. The Shockers are a big part of what’s going to be an exciting five weeks in the Missouri Valley, as they and Creighton careen to another head-to-head matchup in the regular season finale on March 2.

Midmajor College Basketball Report: Gonzaga, Creighton & Wichita State

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The midmajor college basketball teams were quiet last March. After a 2011 year that saw Virginia Commonwealth make the Final Four and Butler reach the national championship game for the second straight year, 2012 belonged to the big boys, with power conference teams controlling the bracket by the regional final round and only Ohio and Xavier making the Sweet 16.

If this year is going to be different, we can start the conversation with the three midmajors in the national rankings—that would be Gonzaga, Creighton and Wichita State and it’s this trio who all get a closer look today.

Gonzaga: The Zags lost to #10 Illinois, but the Illini are undefeated thus far, and Gonzaga has strung together some wins over power conference teams in West Virginia, Clemson, Oklahoma and Washington State—none by themselves are incredibly dazzling, but taken collectively it’s a run that at least tells us that Mark Few’s program is on a path back to the NCAA Tournament.

Gonzaga’s success the last couple years has come from controlling the paint, and even with Robert Sacre gone, that should hold true again this year. Elias Harris back at the power forward spot and averaging 17 points/8 rebounds a night, while 7’0” junior Kelly Olynyk has stepped into Sacre’s role and put up a 14/7 average. The perimeter is in good hands with sophomores Kevin Pangos and Gary Bell Jr. They underwent trial by fire last year, getting starters’ minutes as freshmen and are now experienced beyond their years.

Last season’s tournament saw Gonzaga knock off West Virginia before losing to eventual Final Four participant Ohio State on the first weekend. The weaknesses this year’s Zags team have is depth—there are really no quality contributors beyond the four players mentioned, as well as outside shooting. While both Pangos and Bell are good playmakers and can score, there’s no one on this team who can really loosen up a defense by hitting the trey. Finally, both Pangos and Bell are undersized, at 6’2” and 6’1” respectively, and it’s easy to see a national power with bigger guards able to create matchup problems.

Overall, I think this is a good team, but one in the recent Gonzaga tradition—good enough to get to the NCAA, perhaps win a game, but I don’t see them matchup well against true national contenders.

Creighton: Doug McDermott is the small forward and the 6’8” junior might be the best player in the country, averaging 23/7 per game and hitting better than 50 percent of his shots both from the floor and behind the arc. He makes Creighton a threat against anybody.

Even better is the fact McDermott has plenty of help. Gregory Enrichque goes 6’9” and hits the boards. The backcourt is deep and well-balanced. Austin Chatman and Gary Gibbs are both excellent distributors and each can score when they have to. Chatman hits 56 percent from three-point range, and Gibbs goes 6’5”, giving the Bluejays the outside shooting and matchup edges that Gonzaga lacks.

Creighton beat Alabama in last year’s NCAA Tournament and only lost to North Carolina, who reached a regional final. There’s no reason to think the Bluejays can’t be a Top 16 team this year. The lack of anyone taller than 6’9” on the frontline and general depth issues in the post are what keep them from going higher.

Wichita State: The Shockers were the one team in this trio who was a disappointment in last year’s NCAA Tournament, losing to Virginia Commonwealth in their first game. Wichita knocked off VCU by a bucket earlier this season, but they still have some backcourt issues to work out.

There’s no one at the guard position averaging in double figures, though both Demetric Williams and Evan Wessel can shoot the trey, so whether their scoring rises as the season goes on and defenses start to pack it in, will be something to monitor. Right now the Shockers rely on two high-quality forwards in Cleanthony Early and Carl Hall, who combine to produce 27 points and 12 rebounds a night.

Wichita is a well-coached and has a nice basketball tradition, but it’s tough for me to see them doing serious damage on a national scale. If we were to assess the midmajor college basketball landscape, I’d identify Creighton is the real threat, with Gonzaga and Wichita State needing improvement.

Wichita State & Creighton Lead Up Missouri Valley Bracket Busters

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Bracket Busters week continues at TheSportsNotebook today as we take a closer look at Missouri Valley contenders Wichita State and Creighton Yesterday’s feature was on Conference USA, with a special emphasis on Southern Miss and Memphis, and two weeks ago we looked at the West Coast Conference’s Big Three of Gonzaga, BYU and St. Mary’s. Now let’s delve into flyover country with the midmajor powers in Kansas and Nebraska…

Wichita State (22-4, 13-2, projected #6 seed): The Shockers have a good basketball tradition and recently made the Sweet 16 in the wild year of 2006 before they lost to George Mason. If you really want to turn back the clock, Wichita made a regional final in 1981 when they lost to LSU. This team is in the mold of those two and has a very realistic chance to get out of the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament and can have a darkhorse shot at the Final Four.

There’s nothing Wichita doesn’t do well. With 7’0” Garrett Stutz anchoring the low post at 14 points/8 rebounds a game, the Shockers won’t be outmuscled down low. Joe Ragland runs the offense adroitly at the point. Ragland distributes the ball well. He scores both inside and outside the three-point line. And if he needs a rest, Demetric Williams is a capable backup. Toure’ Murry is a solid 12 ppg man at the two-guard, although head coach Gregg Marshall might want to ban Murry (his name really isn’t “Murray”, that’s not a misspelling) from shooting treys. No such ban would be needed for Ben Smith, who isn’t as prolific as Murry overall, but can hit from downtown. Power forward Carl Hall and backup guard David Kyles know their roles and contribute. You name strength, and Wichita has it.

Before we all get set to pencil in Wichita as the surprise team to be in New Orleans for the Final Four, the downside is simply this—they haven’t beaten a lot of good teams. UNLV is the best win on the non-conference schedule, and while that’s a nice scalp, the next-best win is over Tulsa, who might be a live darkhorse in the Conference USA tournament, but is not someone good enough to be in NCAA at-large consideration. Furthermore, Wichita lost to Alabama, a team on the bubble, and Temple. Again, not bad losses if you’re thinking about a midmajor team just to make the NCAA field as an at-large. But for all the quality pieces Wichita has, they are going to be mystery against non-Missouri Valley competition when March arrives. My nightmare scenario has them playing Vanderbilt or Baylor, putting three teams that can rip your heart out all together.

Creighton (22-5, 12-4, projected #6 seed): The NCAA seed projection comes from Joe Lunardi, the bracketologist at ESPN.com and I’m surprise he’s got the Bluejays this high. On the surface the resume is very similar to Wichita. But Creighton is slumping badly. Prior to a win last night over Southern Illinois, Creighton had dumped three straight, including a 21-point loss to the Shockers that temporarily settled first place in the conference on Saturday. Creighton has no impressive wins in non-league play—Iowa, Nebraska and Northwestern are the best they can do.

What the Bluejays do have is the best player in the conference in dynamic forward Doug McDermott. The 6’7” sophomore is averaging 23/9 a night, and shoots a net-shredding 50 percent from three-point range. He gets solid help underneath from Gregory Echenique, at 10/8, and the backcourt is very efficient. Antoine Young and Gary Gibbs combine for 11 assists a game, meaning either one can bring the ball up and run the offense with equal effectiveness. Young is the slightly better scorer, while the 6’4” Gibbs can steal a few more rebounds off the wing. If winning in NCAA play is about getting one great player to carry you for a weekend, McDermott is a good bet to do so. When it comes to making a dark horse run all the way through a regional, I would be less optimistic about Creighton than Wichita, based on the depth question. But if McDermott’s locked in when the tournament starts, Creighton will be dangerous.

But to return to Creighton’s resume issues, I’m going to take the rare step of questioning how high Lunardi has them seeded. If the committee takes recent form into account, Creighton is going to lose points on that. They’d still be in the field, but it would reduce the cushion considerably. They have a very tough game against Long Beach State on Saturday night. Let’s say they lose that one, and end the regular season at 24-6.

Then we have to assume a loss in the conference tournament, since otherwise Creighton would be in automatically and this whole discussion irrelevant.  If the loss came to Wichita in the finals, we’re talking 26-7 and the best win being an earlier game with Wichita and Northwestern, both of which came prior to the New Year. And if the presumed tournament loss came sooner than the final? Serious trouble. I think Creighton needs to either beat Long Beach State on Saturday or win the conference tournament.