college football landscape

College football and the NBA don’t have a lot in common when it comes to structure and atmospherics. One is driven by a focused intensity in front of screaming crowds for 14 weeks in the fall, with one loss being a significant hit to anyone’s goals. The other is marked by a marathon regular season, mostly laid-back crowds and a postseason that feels like another marathon. But these two sports, different in so many ways, have one important similarity—they’re both remarkably rigid at the top.

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It’s rare for any NBA season to have more than three teams that can legitimately hope to win the championship and even that many is often generous. For example, last year let’s say the Houston Rockets and Cleveland Cavaliers had legitimate hopes of winning it all. But did anyone really doubt that it was going to be the Golden State Warriors winning it all? Everyone else was playing for smaller goals—a team like the Boston Celtics might get to the NBA Finals, but they weren’t going to win it.

Does that landscape sound like college football? I count no more than five teams that can legitimately hope to win the national championship this year, and this season doesn’t feel much different than any in the recent past. Georgia, Clemson, Ohio State and Oklahoma have the talent level and pedigree to at least give themselves hope. But does anyone really doubt that it’s going to be Alabama again? Everyone else is playing for smaller goals. A team like Penn State is a good example of one who can hope to make the College Football Playoff, but they aren’t going to win it.

Fortunately, TheSportsNotebook finds the pursuit of those smaller goals to be a compelling story, particularly the pursuit of the bids to the six marquee bowl games, “The New Year’s Six” that includes the two Playoff semi-finals.

The NBA-like rigidity at the top means that I’m not going to move Alabama, Georgia, Clemson and Ohio State out of the top four until they lose a game (even then, I still think they’ll recover and make it, but a loss will make it interesting). I’m not moving Oklahoma off the fifth line, even if they have a shaky performance like the one on Saturday night where they nearly lost to Army at home—and frankly should have.

But there’s real excitement in watching teams position themselves for a shot at the other seven bids in the New Year’s Six. Six of those spots will go to the highest-ranked teams, meaning they are almost certainly going to be from power conferences. The 12th bid will go to the highest-ranked team from the “Little Five” conferences, led by the American and Mountain West. Here’s how I’ve got the major bowl landscape lined up after the events of Week 4…

THE FOUR: Alabama, Georgia, Clemson, Ohio State
FIRST ALTERNATE: Oklahoma

RESUME TEAMS: LSU, Stanford: I’m not confident that either one will be there at the end, but each have multiple good wins under their belt. At this stage in the game, that’s enough to not overthink it and just include them in the projections.

THREE STEADY CONTENDERS: Washington, Auburn, Penn State—These three teams seem sure to be locked in anywhere from 5th to 11th in the final regular season rankings. The Lions, with Ohio State still ahead of them, are the one team in this group that can control their Playoff fate, even if that seems a tad unrealistic.

A FLUID SITUATION: West Virginia: The Mountaineers have nice wins over Tennessee and Kansas State and a Heisman-contending quarterback in Will Grier. WVA has looked good so far and is in the 11th spot in my current projections. But this spot is close enough that any number of teams, most notably Notre Dame, can move in with an impressive showing.

THE 12th: Central Florida: I’ve been fluctuating on this projection and have decided to stick with UCF for now, simply because they’re ranked higher. But this is a race we’ll eventually dig deeper into. South Florida and Cincinnati are legit challengers to Central Florida in the American Conference. Boise State and San Diego State have losses to power conference teams but will be heard from out of the Mountain West. Buffalo and North Texas are out to 4-0 starts and can still dream the dream.

PROJECTED BOWL MATCHUPS
Cotton (CFB Playoff): Alabama-Ohio State
Orange (CFB Playoff): Georgia-Clemson
Rose: Penn State-Washington
Sugar: Oklahoma-LSU
Fiesta: Auburn-Stanford
Peach: West Virginia-Central Florida

The college football season kicks off tonight when Northwestern plays Purdue (8 PM ET, ESPN) to start a five-day college football extravaganza that runs all the way through Labor Day Night. To set the tone for the season, here’s a basic outlook on the season looks. This is based on a combination of the AP Top 25 and the Las Vegas betting odds on each team’s chances to make the College Football Playoff, thereby framing how the landscape shapes up.

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PLAYOFF CONSENSUS
Alabama
Clemson
Georgia
Comment: All three teams are in the top four for both the writers and oddsmakers and none of them come as a surprise. Any preseason prediction that doesn’t have Alabama in its Playoff has to be dismissed as a pundit just going for shock value. Clemson and Georgia are more interesting cases. The Tigers have an elite defense, but there are question marks at quarterback and their recruiting classes run behind what comes in at ‘Bama. In the case of Georgia, the best players are still on their way up through the program.

FIGHTING FOR THE FOURTH
Wisconsin
Ohio State
Washington
Comment: All three teams rank in the top 5 for either the writers or oddsmakers, thus separating them from the rest of the field. This spot has to be considered Ohio State’s to lose. Only the summer saga over Urban Meyer’s job status keeps the Buckeyes from the top tier.

NEW YEAR’S SIX FAVORITES
Oklahoma
Penn State
Michigan State
Auburn
Miami
Comment: The top 11 teams will make the six major bowls, to be joined by one qualifier from the ranks of the mid-majors. These five teams are in the top 11 for both the media and the markets. Oklahoma has certainly earned the status as Big 12 favorite until proven otherwise, even with the loss of Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Baker Mayfield. Penn State has the raw talent to get their third straight major bowl bid, while having enough inexperience to not quite get to a higher level. The Spartans, Tigers and Hurricanes are all interesting cases—true Bubble teams, if I can use a college basketball expression.

MAJOR BOWL CONTENDERS
Notre Dame
Stanford
Michigan
USC
Comment: The consensus has all four of these teams in the top 16 nationally. It’s frankly not hard to imagine any of them making the leap all the way to the Playoff. Michigan, Notre Dame and USC recruit the necessary talent to be among the elite, while Stanford is one of the best-coached teams in the nation under David Shaw.

THE 12^th TEAM
Central Florida
Boise State
Comment: Dipping into the ranks of the so-called “Little Five” conferences (American, Mountain West, Conference USA, MAC & Sun Belt) two teams stand above the rest. Central Florida, even with the loss of head coach Scott Frost to Nebraska, is a favorite to win this bid for the second straight year. Boise State isn’t far behind.

MID-MAJOR DARK HORSES
Florida Atlantic
South Florida
Comment: Could Lane Kiffin at FAU or Charlie Strong at USF get some national vindication with a run at a major bowl. The oddsmakers tell us not to rule it out.

DIFFERENCES OF OPINION
Michigan
Texas
Comment: The most notable differences of opinion come with those two teams, who are considerably more valued by oddsmakers than they are by the media. Las Vegas gives Michigan the sixth- best chance in the country of making the Playoff, while they’re ranked #14 in the AP poll. Texas’ Playoff odds are 13th-best in the country, while they barely got on the AP radar at #25.