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NBA 2nd Round Preview: San Antonio-LA Clippers

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The San Antonio Spurs have been waiting and resting for their second-round series since dispensing with Utah in a four-game sweep. The Los Angeles Clippers finally joined the Spurs in the bracket this past Sunday when they won Game 7 in Memphis. The Spurs-Clippers will be the last of the second-round series to get underway tonight down in the shadows of the Riverwalk and the Alamo, and TheSportsNotebook previews the series…

Depth has been San Antonio’s calling card all year long and that remains the case in the playoffs. While Tim Duncan and Tony Parker are getting more court time than they did in the regular season, the fact remains that if you just look at the Spurs’ roster you will be underwhelmed, you’ll compare it to Clippers’ lineup that has Chris Paul and Blake Griffin and see an upset in the making. It could happen, but this neglects the obvious disparities that exist in the way these teams play together.

The disparity in togetherness is more about praising San Antonio than knocking Los Angeles. The Spurs are getting quality minutes from players like Stephen Jackson, Daniel Green, Boris Diaw and Kawhi Leonard. They have a center in Tiago Splitter, whose minutes have been cut in the playoffs as Duncan’s need for rest isn’t the same, but Splitter can rebound and block shots. Because the team is so deep, none of the players gets enough minutes to compile eye-popping stats, but San Antonio always has fresh legs to play defense, hit the boards and get quality shots. And a team that shot at least 48 percent in each of the first three games against Utah is clearly getting quality shots.

What Utah did do well in the first round, and what Los Angeles has to take note of, is rebound the ball. The Jazz won the battle of the boards three times in four games and San Antonio’s one win was by a single rebound. Utah’s smallest margin was six. Duncan’s numbers were down here in the road games, but the bigger issue is that Splitter or Boris Diaw down low needs to grab a few more off the bench. The flip side of this is that, while I generally don’t think a team should plan on shooting 50 percent or so from the floor in any game, much less than the playoffs, San Antonio turned in their good offensive performances in spite of Manu Ginobli, a very good pure outside shooter, not playing well the first three games. If you get an experienced team working the ball and their best shooter back into rhythm, another high-percentage series is very possible.

The bigger reason a high percentage shooting series is possible for the favorite is that Los Angeles spent six games playing defense that was substandard for the playoffs. Memphis consistently shot in the mid-40s. While that’s not lights-out, it suggests a defense that’s okay—good enough to win a first-round series, but not do any damage against the big boys. Furthermore, if San Antonio was beaten on the glass by Utah, Los Angeles was positively pummeled by Memphis, losing rebounding from Games 2 thru 6 by margins ranging from decisive to outrageous. Los Angeles turned the ball over too frequently, with four of seven games 16 or higher, which can feed a Spurs strength, that of taking care of the ball.

LA’s Game 7 win on Sunday was ugly, but for a road team in the playoffs it was finally the game where they did a lot of what needs to be done. They got quality bench minutes, they narrowly outrebounded Memphis and they held their opponent to 33 percent shooting. They need to take that one game and spread it out for an entire series against San Antonio.

San Antonio has a lot going for them—they have homecourt, they have rest, they have players with championship experience and that takes a lot to overcome in the playoffs. What the Clippers do have—something that most 5-seeds don’t (think Atlanta) is real star power. Chris Paul and Blake Griffin, when hitting on all cylinders and can win you a big game. Which brings us to the biggest variable of all and that’s Griffin. Yes, he can win you a game when’s focused, both rebounding and scoring. So how many double-digit rebound games did he have in a seven-game series against Memphis? One. Compare that to Duncan who had two in a four-game set, one of which he came out early when the game was in hand. This single comparison tells you why San Antonio will win this series.

The Clippers deserve a lot of respect for winning a seventh game on the road. Chris Paul is an excellent point guard and his presence ensures that someone will keep offensive flow going at key moments. That, combined with the games that Griffin comes to play, means the underdog will steal at least one win and perhaps two. They are good enough, and as they showed Sunday, mentally tough enough to win on the road. But they’re also inconsistent enough to lose at home. That’s why I’m saying it’s the Spurs in six.

NBA 1st Round Preview: Memphis-LA Clippers

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Memphis and the LA Clippers will meet in the first round of the NBA’s Western Conference playoffs, slotted in the 4-5 bracket, with the Grizzlies holding homecourt advantage. TheSportsNotebook previews what looks like the best matchup of the opening round…

The Clippers looked like they were going to hold homecourt for this matchup and maybe even sneak past the crosstown Lakers for the Pacific Division title and get up to #3. The Clips had won 13 of 15, but the bottom fell out on three challenging road games in the final week. They lost at Phoenix, lost at Atlanta and completed the trifecta with a loss at New York on Wednesday night. Memphis, after an up-and-down year, was ready to move into the vacuum, winning 11 of their final 13 to move into the #4 place and earn the right to open this series at home.

Both of these teams are young and talented, but neither plays at a rapid pace. Both play lower-possession games, somewhat surprising when you consider Chris Paul and Mike Conley have the keys to the car for each team—but perhaps less so when you look at the inside talent, from Blake Griffin to Pau Gasol, that make the halfcourt game advantageous each way. Both teams are in the league’s upper third in rebounding, but where the similarities end is in what side of the ball each excels on. Memphis is a bottom tier team in offensive efficiency, but upper third on the defensive side. Los Angeles is in the league’s elite for offensive execution, but below average on defense.

The Clippers, as advertised by the mainstream media, are built around Chris Paul and Blake Griffin, who each average 20-plus points per game. Paul leads the way in assists, while Griffin hits the boards. This team’s playoff success is going to be determined by factors like whether Randy Foye and Nick Young can take the burden of backcourt scoring off Paul. Or whether DeAndre Jordan will rebound and block shots on the interior, enabling Los Angeles to neutralize Memphis’ bigs. And small forward Caron Butler has to be seen as a prime candidate for a breakout series—at least if the Clippers are going to win.

Memphis gets its points down low, with Gasol averaging 15, Zach Randolph getting 12 at power forward and most of all by talented small forward Rudy Gay who hits for 19 ppg. But the biggest X-factor Memphis has down low is Marressee Speights, who can give key minutes off the bench at either power forward or center, effectively making the Grizzlies immune to foul trouble. The backcourt is solid in its individual components, with Conley a good floor leader and O.J. Mayo or Tony Allen respective at the two-guard, but this team really lacks a three-point shooter to open up the lane.

I’m skeptical of offensive-oriented teams to win at this time of year, so I like the Grizzlies, but there are some strong factors pushing the Clippers way—most notably the star system of the NBA playoffs. The same league that hotwired the 76ers into the 2001 NBA Finals and the Lakers into the 2002 Finals over small-market teams with some officiating that went beyond shaky, can’t be considered above handing a few extra calls to the team from America’s largest second-city, having the game’s best point guard and the big man in the KIA commercials. Especially when the opponent is less than marquee. I wouldn’t consider the NBA above it, but I haven’t become conspiratorial enough to assume it, so I’m going with defense and the strong interior of Memphis over a team who’s shaky defense and inconsistent supporting cast played them out of a division title and homecourt.

The Los Angeles Clippers Try And Own The Town

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The Los Angeles Clippers are hot on the heels of the crosstown Lakers for first place in the NBA’s Pacific Division, trailing only by a half-game and tied in the loss column. On the flip side, though the Clips are currently #4 in the West, they are just two games up on the Memphis Grizzlies for that spot, which means homecourt advantage in the first round of the playoffs that start next Saturday. Los Angeles is playing well right now—extremely well in fact, having taken 13 of their last 15, so today they get the up-close look from TheSportsNotebook as we continue to prepare for the NBA playoffs.

Chris Paul and Blake Griffin are the names that come to mind when you think of the Clippers, but this is a deep and well-balanced team that can beat you a lot of different ways. Randy Foye is Paul’s running mate in the backcourt and a decent scorer. The depth at the guard positions is impressive, with Mo Williams able to give Paul some quality relief and Nick Young chipping in 15 ppg behind Foye. All four guards are good enough to shoot the trey (i.e., above 35 percent) and Williams hits the 40 percent threshold from behind the arc. Paul distributes the ball as well as any point guard in the NBA, with nine assists per game and also scores 19 a night.

Up front, Griffin is a 20 ppg scorer and hits the glass to the tune of 11 boards per night. DeAndre Jordan is an underrated factor at center, providing quality rebounding help himself and blocking a couple shots per game. Veteran Caron Butler mans the small forward spot and is a double-digit scorer himself. This all adds up to a group that is fifth in the NBA in offensive efficiency and the rebounding prowess of Griffin and Jordan lead the way for a team sixth in that crucial category.

What Los Angeles does not do well—at least by playoff standards—is play good team defense. They only rank 16th in defensive efficiency, meaning their barely playoff-worthy if games were decided strictly on the defensive end. Nonetheless, they have overcome that to play good basketball at a key point in the season and all but secure a playoff berth and possible homecourt in a tough Western Conference. So let’s take a look at the most recent part of that 13-2 stretch, which is the ten games played in April, of which Los Angeles won eight…

April 2: at Dallas (94-75): This marked the sixth win in a row for the franchise’s longest winning streak since 1992. It reminds you that whatever flaws this team has, keep them in perspective. The remnant of non-bandwagon jumpers in the city that stuck with the Clippers have waited a long time to have writers like me pick nits about their weaknesses and measure them by championship standards. And this particular game was a showcase in excellence. The defense was sound. They shot 47 percent. Paul got his ten assists, Griffin his sixteen boards and Foye knocked down 28. All on the road against the defending champs.

April 4: vs LA Lakers (108-113): An annoying loss to the rivals on a neutral floor, since both teams play at The Staples Center. Griffin and Jordan combine for 27 rebounds, but the team defense is lacking. The Lakers shoot 51 percent and get 30-plus from both Kobe and Andrew Bynum.

April 5: at Sacramento (93-85): Sloppy game with 18 turnovers each way, but Foye’s 20 bails out the Clips in a letdown spot.

April 7: vs. Sacramento (109-94): Another game with 36 combined turnovers, close to evenly split. Paul dishes 15 assists, and Foye and Griffin lead the offense in a good inside-outside combo.

April 9: at Memphis (85-94): Ominous bellwether for the first-round playoff matchup that would occur if the season ended today. Los Angeles was beaten badly on the boards, played lousy defense and Griffin was a non-factor.

April 11: at Oklahoma City (100-98): Great bellwether for the second-round playoff matchup if the first round went chalk based on the pairings of today. The Clips play defense and hold Durant to 22, while not letting his supporting cast get untracked.  The fast pace accounts for the high score, but the Thunder only shot 40 percent from the floor. Paul showed he can take a game over offensively, eschewing the assists for a 31-point night.

April 12: at Minnesota (95-82): Los Angeles knocks down 12 three-pointers, but I don’t like the fact that a Love-less Timberwolves team is basically even on the glass. But it’s a third road game in four nights, 24 hours after winning in OkC, so let’s cut Griffin and Jordan a break here.

April 14: vs. Golden State (112-104): There is again a lack of rebounding dominance and the excuses have to be tossed. The Clippers win because they’re shooting 54 percent and Golden State is in the middle of a tank job, but if you’re a rebounding team and your opponent is a lousy squad with no motivation and sitting its best inside player (forward David Lee), you have to dominate.

April 16: vs. Oklahoma City (92-77): The Thunder bring out the best in the Clippers, as a tremendous defensive effort holds OkC to 38 percent from the floor. The backup guards, Williams and Young, combine for 30 and Russell Westbrook is held to nine points.

April 18: at Denver (104-98): Both teams shot the ball very well, but Los Angeles lit it up behind the arc, hitting 14-of-24. Williams buried four, for his second straight 19-point game, and Butler bagged four more.

The Clippers have all the markings of a team that plays to the level of their competition, as you note the great defensive outings in three games against Dallas and Oklahoma City, with the lackluster efforts given against Minnesota and Golden State. That’s not something I like to see from a team in any sport, but in the long gauntlet that is the NBA playoffs, it’s even less acceptable. You have to be in shape mentally to play hard every single night and the importance of defense is going to shoot up exponentially in these coming months. I’m not saying I wouldn’t pick Los Angeles to win a first-round series and I’m not saying they aren’t making some really nice progress as a franchise. But they need something extra in the way of consistent defensive effort to reach championship-level.