Menu

Chicago Bears predictions

NFL Analysis: Chicago Undergoes A Makeover

, , , , ,

The Chicago Bears underwent a coaching makeover in the offseason. Lovie Smith is gone after several seasons that provided steadiness, but too many occasions where the Bears came up just short of the playoffs. One of those seasons was 2012, where a 7-1 start turned into a 10-6 finish and being nosed out by the Minnesota Vikings for the final wild-card spot.

Marc Trestman is the new head coach and after years of a defensive orientation under Smith, the new-look Bears may be more about offense. The retirement of middle linebacker Brian Urlacher stands to further the trend.

The team’s talent distribution also suggests that Chicago is going to have to be more offense-oriented. The Bears have a good group of skill position players. Matt Forte and Michael Bush are a nice 1-2 punch at running back. Brandon Marshall and second-year receiver Alshon Jeffrey make a good duo on the flanks and the Bears brought in tight end Martellus Bennett from the Giants.


Trestman is going to have figure out two things, both directly related. He has to get quarterback Jay Cutler to spread the ball around a little bit better, and he’s got to find a way to keep his quarterback protected.

Cutler targeted Marshall heavily in 2012, good for 118 catchers, but didn’t get other receivers involved. But when you’re 25th in the league in allowing sacks, it’s tough to scan the field and use your secondary options. To that end, the Bears drafted Oregon guard Kyle Long in the first round, but expecting that change alone to anything more than turn bad into mediocre is hoping for too much.

Even with Urlacher’s retirement, the Bears still have an older defense. Julius Peppers is 33-years-old at defensive end. The front line of the depth chart at linebacker has two starters on the wrong side of 30. It’s possible rookie Jon Bostic could end up winning Urlacher’s old job, but that would be more an indictment of the veterans on hand than any kind of positive statement about this season.

Even so, when you can dominate on the corners, your defense has a chance to compete. Chicago has aggressive ballhawks in Charles Tillman and Tim Jennings. Both can lock down in coverage, get interceptions and Tillman’s strip-tackling skills produced ten fumbles last year. Even if that doesn’t repeat itself, Chicago can still force turnovers.

Furthermore, Peppers is still a double-digit sack man . His age requires that we be alert to signs of decline, but he’s still pressuring quarterbacks and has a lot of help on the front four. Corey Wotton on the opposite end and Henry Melton in the middle can each break down pockets if opposing protection schemes get too focused on Peppers.

Chicago’s Over/Under win number in Las Vegas is posted 8.5. My biggest problem with this team is that I have zero confidence in Trestman. I thought Smith was a pretty good coach who always produced disciplined teams that at least competed. If he were on the sideline, TheSportsNotebook’s NFL analysis would chalk the Bears in for at least 9-7 and an Over. But he’s not.

I can see a disaster scenario unfolding for the Bears. If the aging process shows on defense, the pressure is going to be on the new coaching staff’s offensive expertise to win games and there’s little reason to think the offensive line can provide the protection necessary. I can see Chicago going as low as 5-11 if it blows up, and no higher than 9-7 if it works. That adds up to an Under pick for me.

NFC North Overview
Green Bay Packers Preview
Minnesota Vikings Preview
Detroit Lions Preview

NFL Team Previews: Chicago Bears

, , , , ,

The Chicago Bears were rolling last season, at 7-3 and looked on their way to the playoffs when Jay Cutler went down for the year. The team didn’t win again until the final week of the season when they were eliminated. The Bears have gone out and fixed the backup quarterback spot and made other notable additions in free agency. Will it translate into a playoff year in a tough division? TheSportsNotebook previews Chicago’s chances…

OFFENSE: Cutler’s durability has been a question mark, and in some quarters his toughness has been called into question. Considering how frequently the guy’s been knocked down in his career, particularly since coming to the Bears for the 2009 season, I think that’s a little unfair. But it underscores the problem this offensive line has with keeping their QB standing upright and why the development of tackles J’Marcus Webb and Gabe Carimi is so vital. Both are 24-years-old, and Carimi missed most of last year with an injury. If they can come through, Chicago fans can breathe a lot easier. But it has to be these two that show the improvement, because the interior of the line is neither young nor talented.

Cutler will have a better complement of weapons to work with. The team went out and got Brandon Marshall, the temperamental receiver who was a productive playmate Cutler when they were both in Denver. They drafted Alshon Jeffrey, a receiver out of South Carolina I like a great deal. These acquisitions enable Devin Hester to slide into his natural role in the offense, which is a #3 man and punt returner. And when it comes to running the ball, the Bears got Michael Bush, one of the best backs on the market last February, to pair up with Matt Forte, who had a lengthy contract dispute and should be motivated to make himself some money on next year’s free agent market.  Finally, Jason Campbell was brought in to be the #2 quarterback. If (when?) Cutler goes down, the season won’t be shot this time around.

DEFENSE: The front seven has been the pride and joy of the Windy City in the Lovie Smith era and Julius Peppers is still going strong at defensive end, recording 18 sacks last year, even as he hits 32-years-old. The team needs Israel Idonjie to be much more productive than he was a year ago, when he only had five sacks. Idonjie, along with tackle Henry Melton, have the talent to make offensive lines pay if their protection schemes orient too heavily to Peppers.

Brian Urlacher’s knee will decide the fate of the linebacking corps and perhaps whether the entire defense can be championship-caliber. Urlacher’s knee has him questionable for the September 9 season opener. Joined with Lance Briggs, he gives the Bears a powerful duo at linebacker. Without him, Chicago is still pretty good in the front seven, but if this team is to hit its potential the defensive line and linebackers have to be great. And they won’t be without a healthy Urlacher.

The front seven has to be great, because the secondary is a problem. While Charles Tillman is a productive corner, the rest of the unit is spotty. The most Bears fans can hope for is that free safety Chris Conte, 23-years-old, makes big improvement this year. Because to have a weakness in centerfield when you play Aaron Rodgers and Matthew Stafford four times a year is begging for trouble.

LAS VEGAS OVER/UNDER WIN PROJECTION: 9.5—Is it inconsistent to say that I like Lovie and like this Bear team, but am still going Under? Let me explain. Since the Super Bowl year of 2006, the Bears have only exceeded nine wins one time, that in 2010. The strength of the division, where I think Chicago trails both Detroit and Green Bay, will make a really big year tough. So while I might pick them for 10-6 next week when I do my final picks, I can’t go any higher than that. And that’s enough wiggle room on the over side. I can see them going 8-8, which allows slightly more room to maneuver with the Under. Furthermore, if Urlacher misses substantial time—hardly an unrealistic thought—then a tough season is in store.