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NBA 1st Round Preview: Boston-Atlanta

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The Boston Celtics started the season slow, but closed on an up note and won their fifth straight Atlantic Division title. The Celts were 17-17 at the end of February before getting into rhythm, winning 21 of their last 31 going into Thursday’s meaningless finale against Milwaukee and securing homecourt advantage for the first round of the NBA playoffs. The Atlanta Hawks, on the other hand, were 16-6 at the end of January, but wasn’t able to elevate themselves into the top four with a 23-17 finish to the schedule. The Celtics and Hawks meet in the 4-5 bracket spot in the Eastern Conference. Are they two ships passing in the night or will the start of the postseason disrupt the trends of the last couple months? The SportsNotebook previews the Boston-Atlanta series…

These teams are very similar. Both play at a deliberate pace and neither are particularly efficient on the offensive end, nor does either one rebound the ball. Before you wonder how exactly they got into decent bracket position, we’ll point out that each team plays lockdown defense.

Boston’s aging Big Three of Ray Allen, Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett looked their age (average 35) for much of the season, but the last two months have looked like they’re ready to throw a stirring challenge in the face of Father Time. Pierce averaged 20 ppg despite showing up from the lockout out of shape. Garnett’s 16 points/8 rebounds line obscures that he’s played his best basketball down the stretch. Allen has been nursing a sore ankle, but still chips in 14 a night and knocks down 45 percent of his shots from behind the three-point line. Directing the vets is 26-year-old Rajon Rondo, averaging a league-best 11 assists per game and one of the positive byproducts to come from Allen’s ankle injury is the emergence of Avery Bradley. Just 21 years old, Bradley hits 50 percent from the floor—though he’s not a three-point threat—and gives head coach Doc Rivers a spark coming off the bench. Power forward is a weak spot where Brandon Bass averages 12 ppg, but his rebounding is mediocre and at 6’8” can be a matchup problem for the Celtics against bigger teams.

Atlanta’s success is built around the outside-inside combo of Joe Johnson and Josh Smith. Johnson, who goes 6’7” at the two-guard spot kicks in 19 points a night and does it with efficient shooting, 45 percent from the floor. Smith is a 19/9 man underneath and has shotblocking ability to boot. The point guard position is in respectable hands with Jeff Teague, while Marvin Williams is serviceable at small forward, averaging 10/5 a night. It’s down low that’s an injury-riddled mess. The Hawks’ main center is Al Horford, who went out with a chest injury after just 11 games. He was replaced by Zaza Pachulia who is battling a foot injury and wasn’t all that productive when he’s healthy. Horford announced he’s going to make a go of it and try and play in both tonight’s tuneup regular season finale against Dallas and then in the series with the Celtics. The only other player of note is guard Kirk Hinrich who does nothing noteworthy.

The lack of depth is apparent in reviewing both of these teams and will clearly be a big hindrance to the ability of either to knock off #1 seed Chicago should that be the matchup in the second round. For this series it’s a wash. The play of Horford is the big X-factor. If he can contribute, even if it’s just rebounding, he can take an area that’s currently a weakness for both sides and put it in Atlanta’s column. Combine that with Johnson and Smith and Atlanta could win this series.

More realistically, the Atlanta offense is going to be too one-dimensional to be consistent against the Boston defense. Smith will have to get his points on put-backs of offensive rebounds and Johnson will have to shoulder a huge load. On the other opposite side of the floor, Rondo gives the Celts a creativity that Teague can’t match and Allen, Pierce and Garnett can all hit jumpers, while Bradley is easily the best bench player in this series. Finally, we have to take into account something that only the NBA brings to our attention and that’s what star players are going to get the benefit of the doubt in close games. From the perspective of marquee value for a franchise and individual star power that’s clearly Boston.

Atlanta will have to win this series decisively if they’re going to do it, and I don’t think they’ll even do it straight up. As a Celtics fan I might seeing the world through green-colored glasses right now (especially since the Bruins’ elimination has me terrified of spending the spring alone with the Red Sox bullpen), but I believe even an objective observer would concede that it’s realistic to expect the Celtics to defend their home floor without exception and sneak a win out in Atlanta in the middle sequence, which means this ends in five. (4/28, Editor’s Note: I am in error on homecourt advantage. While the NBA puts Boston at the #4 spot on the bracket, Atlanta has the better record, so even though they are listed at #5, they get homecourt. For the series prediction, I think it means the Celts still split on the road to open, win out at home in the middle, but Atlanta takes Game 5 down south. The C’s wrap it up in Game 6).

Atlantic Division Race To The Finish: Celtics & Sixers

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The Boston Celtics and Philadelphia 76ers have twelve games apiece left in the regular season and their battle for the Atlantic Division title remains the most compelling in the Eastern Conference. The winner gets the #4 seed and homecourt advantage for a first-round series. The loser is presently seeded #7 and facing certain elimination against Miami if the playoffs began today. The Celtics, with a record of 30-24 lead the race by one game. TheSportsNotebook takes a closer look at each team and the rest of the schedule…

These teams really couldn’t be more different in terms of personnel. If you look at the minutes played, Boston is as advertised—a team almost exclusively dependent on contributions from their aging stars, who all have a  lot of pressure to not just play well, but play for long stretches. On the other hand, Philadelphia’s rotation goes eight deep. The flip side of this is that the Celtics have several players very comfortable with the ball in their hands at the key moments in a game, while the Sixers really need someone to step up as a clear go-to option in the crunch.

Lou Williams is the top scorer for Philadelphia at 15 ppg. Boston has two players, Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett who exceed that, and Ray Allen is next on the list at 14 ppg. In a league that’s star-driven in big games, Boston has a huge edge. But the 76ers have the aforementioned eight-man rotation, which just includes players who log at least 20 minutes per game. And these are productive minutes. Doug Collins’ bench includes backcourt players like Evan Turner, who gives 10 ppg and Jodie Meeks who can provide some offensive spark. And while Garnett is the top rebounder among the two teams, Philly has the next best two, in Elton Brandon and Spencer Hawes. In a league with a compressed schedule that values fresh legs at this point in the season, Philadelphia has a huge edge. So what way do you play it?

As dissimilar as the rivals are in personnel, their bottom line remains essentially the same. Each team plays terrific team defense—in fact in terms of defensive efficiency (points allowed adjusted for tempo), the Sixers and Celtics are 1-2 in the NBA. Neither is very good at rebounding the missed shots they force, with the Celtics being particularly awful. And neither team will win any trophies for its offensive efficiency, though Philadelphia ranks a little higher.

The 76ers rank higher in both offense and rebounding, but let’s not forget that a lot of that was compiled when they were playing genuinely excellent basketball through around the end of January. Andre Igoudala is having a solid year at 12 points/6 rebounds/6 assists, but he was playing even better then. Jrue Holiday is a solid point guard, capable of leading a championship team, but he’s at his best when he can focus on distribution rather than scoring.  Igoudala is going to have to lift his game if the Sixers want to avoid finishing an embarrassing regular season collapse and then avoid repeating their playoff futility against Miami from last year.

Collapsing is what Philadelphia is doing right now. While the struggles have been going on for a couple months, the team has lost three straight, which include defeats at the hands of Washington and Toronto, each by over twenty points! The Celtics have taken advantage. While they’ve lost their last two, both were tight games against conference leaders Chicago and San Antonio (yes, the Spurs have moved past Oklahoma City in the West). Prior to that Boston won five straight against a mix of two patsies (Washington & Charlotte), two decent teams (Utah & Minnesota) and one big game (Miami).

This weekend is going to be tough. It starts tonight when Boston matches up with Indiana, as the Pacers have caught fire and moved past Orlando into the 3-spot. Speaking of Orlando, the circus that is the Magic plays host to Philly tonight at 7 PM ET on ESPN. Then tomorrow, Boston-Philly go head-to-head at 6 PM ET on NBA-TV, their final regular season game of the year. My guess is that they’ll be tied for first when that game tips off.

Going into next week, Philadelphia gets a temporary schedule advantage. While the Sixers play two games against the Nets and one against the Raptors, the Celtics mess around with Miami and Atlanta, before getting  a game at Toronto themselves. The following week it balances out, with the Sixers having to deal with Orlando and Indiana, while Boston matches up with New Jersey and Charlotte. This all plays out over the next ten day, so we’ll see if either team can create some space in the standings. If not, it’ll be a big nine-day ride to the finish line on April 26.

Analyzing The Boston Celtics’ Slide In The NBA Eastern Conference

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On the morning of February 8, Boston Celtics fans—present writer included—were feeling our oats. The C’s had just won the first four games of a five-game homestand, were up to 14-10 and at minimum were in position to be a second-round team in the NBA’s Eastern Conference. And we could be forgiven if some thoughts of springing an upset on Miami or Chicago might have briefly skipped through our minds. It’s been all downhill since then, as Boston has lost seven of eight. TheSportsNotebook takes a look at the losing streak to see if it’s just a bad stretch or if it’s time to break up the band.

When you review the numbers on the Celtics, the most important ones are these: 36, 35, 34. Those are the ages of Ray Allen, Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce, respectively. And since Garnett came to the NBA straight out of high school there’s four extra years of wear and tear that the college kid doesn’t have on his body. Therefore, for Celtics’ general manager Danny Ainge, the question of whether the slide is reversible is more than about this season and he can’t sit by and passive observer as the question is answered. He’s got to figure it out now, while a contender might still give up something of value for one of his three veterans.

Defense has been the cornerstone of the Celtics’ strong play the last four years, and that hasn’t changed. They are still a top five team defensively, whether it’s raw points or adjusted for tempo. The problem is that they’re no longer rebounding the missed shots they force. The team ranks 26th in rebounding, and an offense that’s in the bottom third of the league can’t make up for it. Depth is a huge issue, particularly up front. Garnett still averages a respectable 14 ppg, but he’s at his best when stepping out to hit the 15-foot jump shot rather than just posting up. Jermaine O’Neal has been a disaster at center, and while forward Brandon Bass has been a nice pickup, he’s more of a sixth man at forward than a true inside player.

Bottom line? This team has not recovered from Ainge’s foolhardy decision to trade center Kendrick Perkins to Oklahoma City last February. “Perk” was a true physical presence inside, a tough defender and rebounder and to top it off, he was loved by the fans. Lest you think I’m second-guessing, all of Celtics Nation cried out in protestwhen he was traded. Ainge got Jeff Green and Marquis Daniels back in return. Green has suffered a heart condition which makes him unable to play, at least this year. Daniels is just flat-out unproductive.

So while the backcourt remains solid—Allen, Pierce and Rajon Rondo combine for 47 ppg, Allen is still lights out from three, Pierce is still a go-to guy in the clutch and Rondo is a better perimeter shooter at 48 percent than he’s given credit for—it’s not enough to overcome the scoring, rebounding and depth issues up front. Let’s take a run through the current 1-7 slide to illustrate that.

It was a home game against the hated Lakers on a TNT Thursday game that started it all. While Los Angeles only hit one trey, they dominated the glass 55-45, with Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum beating the Garnett/O’Neal duo in rebounding 31-18. LA won by a point. Two nights later in Toronto, the C’s no-showed it, to the disgust of head coach Doc Rivers, as this time they were outrebounded by the tandem of Amir Johnson and Aaron Gray. The bleeding was stopped on a Sunday ABC game on February 12 when the Bulls came to the Garden without Derrick Rose, and Rondo stepped up with a brilliant 32 points/10 rebounds/15 assists game to hold off Chicago 95-91.

One of the things TheSportsNotebook identified as key in the February 8 commentary was for the Celtics to simply take care of the winnable games during a tough schedule stretch. We’ve already seen them lose to Toronto. The day after Valentine’s Day they dumped a 10-point loss to Detroit at home because Ben Wallace and Greg Monroe owned the glass. Boston was competitive in Chicago on another TNT Thursday game, going even-up for three quarters, but—stop if you’ve heard this theme before—a 52-37 rebounding edge for the Bulls enabled them to pull away. Carlos Boozer and Joakim Noah couldn’t be kept off the glass and Chicago also nailed ten treys in an 89-80 win.

Still, if Boston was taking care of what should have been the easy games, the ones in Chicago could be overlooked. Instead they went to Detroit and lost again, this time by 15 points. It was the backcourt this time, as the Celts turned it over 22 times, with Rondo and Pierce being primary culprits. Turnovers were a factor again in a loss at Dallas—not that they committed a ridiculous amount, but they didn’t force any and the Mavs’ 16-8 edge in this category was the biggest reason for their win. The absence of Rondo with a suspension and Garnett with a nagging injury didn’t help matters. And just before the All-Star break, Boston mailed one in from Oklahoma City losing 119-104, a game not nearly as respectable as the score makes it sound.

Garnett’s been on-again, off-again in his playing time during this stretch, missing both Detroit games along with the Dallas game. But this is where the depth issue comes into play. No one expects the Celtics to win Dallas without a core player, but a team capable of being top four in the East should be able to beat Detroit with Rondo, Pierce and Allen. If they have any depth on the frontline, that is. Boston doesn’t. And even when Garnett is available, while his rebounding is competitive, there’s no one to help.

If Ainge thinks Boston can still get the 6-spot in the Eastern Conference playoffs, he should stand pat. If the Celtics do that, they have a chance to win a first-round series, and as much as Boston fans want more, the opportunity to be among the last four in your conference is a good enough prize that you don’t throw in the towel. If a contender wants to really overpay for one of the vets that’s one thing—Ray Allen could be the difference for Chicago in a series against Miami for example. Garnett would be huge in a place like Dallas. If they offer a competitive player with a first-round pick, go for it. But don’t sell them off cheap if you think there’s a chance to win.

March 7 is circled as the evaluation date for TheSportsNotebook. Between now and then, the Celtics play at Cleveland and then host Milwaukee, the two teams in their rearview mirror for the last playoff spot. Then they go to New Jersey and this coming Sunday it’s an ABC game at home with surging New York. On March 6, Kevin McHale makes a homecoming when he brings in the surprising Houston Rockets. Then on the 7th a road trip to Philadelphia starts a more difficult stretch. If you don’t think you can get in the top six and win a playoff series by that point, then make a deal. Otherwise, go for it. By coincidence, I also put 3/7 in as a key date for the 76ers, making next week crunch time for the Atlantic Division.

The Changing Of The Guard In The NBA Atlantic Division

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A lot of people, including myself, have been surprised that the Boston Celtics have opted to keep their Big Three of Ray Allen, Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce together these last two seasons. After the Celts lost a seven-game series to the Lakers in the 2010 NBA Finals, I figured GM Danny Ainge would start the rebuilding process. Instead, Ainge has brought all three back not just once, but twice, opting only for minor tweaks around the edges.

So far this season, it’s not looking too good and all indications are that a changing of the guard is at hand in the Atlantic Division. It hasn’t been the expected team of the New York Knicks though. With the acquisition of Carmelo Anthony last February, this was supposed to be the time for New York to stand up. Instead it’s Philadelphia who’s off and running in the division. Today the Notebook breaks down the Sixers, Knicks and Celtics to see what might lie ahead. Please note that the rank beside each team below is their position in the Eastern Conference, not just the division and the top eight teams make the playoffs.

Philadelphia (10-3, T2nd): The 76ers do everything well on both sides of the floor, but they thing they do best of all is play defense, something that surely has Dr. J turning over in his grave (granted, he’s not dead, but you get the point). Philadelphia is the best in the league at defensive efficiency, which measures performance on a per-possession basis, not just overall points, thus adjusting for tempo. Doug Collins makes great use of his roster with eight players getting quality minutes. Philly gets scoring on the perimeter from two-guard Lou Williams, the best threat from three-point range. Evan Turner, a 6’7” off-guard creates matchup problems for opposing defenses and while he isn’t a threat from downtown, he’s still a solid scorer. Running the show is Jrue Holiday, the 21-year old point guard out of UCLA. Holiday is playing well, but I think we have to be red-flag a point guard this young, at least in terms of the 76ers ability to compete with Chicago or Miami.

The balanced depth continues up front, with Andre Igudola, probably the team’s best player, averaging 14 points/6 rebounds, although no one really rises above the rest on this team. Elton Brand gives a veteran presence down low, while young Spence Hawes and Thaddeus Young each score  in double-digits and rebound. The combination of the young point guard and lack of clear go-to player are the liabilities the Sixers face in big games, but their ability to put together solid sustained stretches of basketball can’t be doubted. They are going to be very tough to catch in this division, and will surely have homecourt advantage for the first round.

New York (6-7, 8th): Because the Knicks run the floor at a fast pace, they can look like a good offensive team, but the efficiency numbers suggest otherwise. When it comes to getting a basket when they really need it, New York is a below-average team. The positive side to that is the defense isn’t quite as mediocre as raw point totals make it look. What New York doesn’t have is quality depth, with only five players even averaging 24 minutes a game. Even if we give them Toney Douglas, who’s over 20 minutes, that’s still a thin rotation to survive a long season with.

Unsurprisingly, Carmelo Anthony is the go-to player on offense, with 26 ppg, but he’s not a big-time rebounder, nor does he distribute very well. It’s fair to wonder if he really makes those around him better and the team’s record only adds fuel to the fire. Amare Stoudamire and Tyson Chandler comprise a tough duo down low, both scoring and rebounding, and Chandler is a solid defensive force. The Knicks’ real problems are in the backcourt, where Iman Shumpert can chip in some offense, but doesn’t do well in playmaking. Landry Fields and Toney Douglas are both shooting the ball poorly. The Knicks’ season is entirely in the hands of the frontline, and while that can keep them on the playoff borderline and make them a good draw, it’s not going to make them a threat to win the Atlantic or get in the top four for homecourt advantage in the first playoff series. Which, in the NBA, likely means another early exit.

Boston (4-8, 9th): We can tell you how old the Celtics are—and the fact they have four regular players over 30 years old, while the Knicks and Sixers have one combined (Brand). But you’re a sports junkie and you already know that. What are the practical effects of the aging process? The first is that Boston’s trademark defense is in decline. This is another team where it takes the efficiency adjustment to tell the story. In points allowed, the C’s are a little above average. But throw in the tempo factor and they become below average. Even Boston’s best teams in this era weren’t offensive machines, so this is a major problem. The offense also becomes worse when you adjust stats for tempo.

Rajon Rondo is the best player on the team, and has become a good shooter. He’s not going to drain the three-ball, but at 50 percent from the floor you can no longer just pack everything back and give him an open 12-foot look. Allen is still having a solid offensive year and his 57% shooting from behind the arc remains astonishing. Pierce and Garnett are still pretty good players, while Brandon Bass can chip in some help off the bench. But there’s no real star up front right now, and with the overall lack of team defense, it’s tough to see the Celtics turning this thing around. I know the mantra in Boston is to just save the legs for the playoffs. But the NBA playoffs are not the NCAA Tournament. Even if you get in, that’s still a long two-month run to go if you want to win big. Boston’s not winning big and even making the playoffs has to be seen as a 50/50 call right now. As a Celts fan, I’m trying to take the positive outlook—this means the games being played now are meaningful, so I can pay attention to the C’s now and then move the focus to the Bruins come springtime and the NHL playoffs.