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The Close Of The Kentucky Derby Prep Season

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It’s the final weekend of the Kentucky Derby Prep races, as two weeks from Saturday is The Run For The Roses itself. The Jerome Stakes at New York’s Aqueduct (5 PM ET) and the Lexington Stakes at Keeneland in Kentucky (5:10 PM ET) aren’t the biggest races, at $200,000 apiece, but they bring us to the conclusion of the prep part of the Triple Crown season. TheSportsNotebook breaks down both races…

Jerome Stakes: This one’s a seven-horse field and the two clear favorites are Stirred Up (2-1) and The Lumber Guy (5-2). Stirred Up is trained by West Coast legend Bob Baffert and ridden by Martin Garcia, who teamed up with Baffert to win the 2010 Preakness Stakes aboard Lookin’ At Lucky. With Stirred Up, they came in third at the Sunland Stakes, a Derby Prep in March. Three previous races at Santa Anita produced a first, second and third. Now Baffert is sending Stirred Up east. The Lumber Guy has run at New York, finishing fifth in the Wood Memorial here in February after winning a stakes race here last fall. In both cases, there’s nothing wrong with the favorites, but neither looks overwhelming.

The top two challengers are Brigand (4-1) and Right To Vote (5-1). The former is also a Baffert horse and raised hopes with a second-place finish at a Juvenile Championship race last summer at Hollywood, but has done nothing significant since. Right To Vote finished third at a stakes race at New York’s Belmont Park and run first or second in his other races since. Saturday is a breakout opportunity for him. If you want an even bigger longshot, try Dan and Sheila. This horse, trained by Todd Pletcher, has been a disappointment in two previous Derby Prep races. Regular jockey John Velazquez will be passing on the mount and giving it over to Rosie Napravnik. The price is 12-1 and Dan and Sheila is the equivalent of that underachieving #11 seed in the NCAA Tournament that has the talent to go on a big run at a moment’s notice.

Lexington Stakes: The action from Keeneland will be more competitive, with thirteen horse s in the field. The three favorites would be Castaway (3-1), Summer Front (9-2) and News Pending (5-1). Baffert’s fingerprints are all over Saturday’s card, as he trains Castaway, a horse who won the Southwest Stakes at Arkansas already this prep season, but flamed out at the Sunland. Oddsmakers clearly believe that Southwest was the “real” Castaway in giving him the favorite’s role. Summer Front is running for the first time in 2012, after closing ’11 with stakes wins in New York and Florida. News Pending is traveling north, having run seventh in the Florida Derby, but a strong second in that Fountain of Youth stakes. It’s worth pointing out that the caliber of this field is more on a par with the Fountain of Youth than with the prestigious Florida Derby, perhaps the top race of the prep season.

Any of these three horses make credible choices, but for those who like to bet and go for a price, there’s three horses priced at 6-1 who all have the makings of one who can make a run at it. Golden Ticket ran second in the Tampa Derby and had finished first or second in his three races prior. Not to mention having a name taken straight from Willy Wonka & The Chocolate Factory. This fact alone makes me feel almost duty-bound to bet him.

Holiday Promise is a Pletcher-trained product and ran second at the Spiral Stakes here in Kentucky, and of the five races leading up, won two, finished second two more times along with a fourth. And Morgan’s Guerilla was the runner-up in the 17-horse Illinois Derby a couple weeks ago and has been first or second in his off-Broadway races.

When you put Golden Ticket, Holiday Promise and Morgan’s Guerilla into a package, the winner probably comes out of there. It’d be worth betting two of the horses and the odds give you enough room to make a profit so long as one of them wins.

Road To The Triple Crown: Sunday Showdown At Sunland

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The $800,000 purse at Sunday’s Sunland Derby is the biggest thus far on The Road To The Triple Crown, so it’s no surprise that top-caliber racing will come to the outpost of El Paso, TX for a showdown stakes race at 7:45 PM ET.

There are eight horses ready to go, and the card is highlighted by Castaway, who won the Southwest Stakes at Arkansas’ Oaklawn Park a little over a month ago, and with another win could elevate himself up with runners like Hansen and Secret Circle, who deserve to be on the list of early Derby favorites. Castaway’s team of jockey Rafael Bejanaro and trainer Bob Baffert is as good as you’ll find west of the Mississippi River. The only thing not to like about this horse is the 2-1 odds you’re stuck with at the betting window. You can jump the price up to 3-1 and get another horse with a key Prep win under his belt. Daddy Nose Best, ridden by Julian Leparoux and handled by national championship-winning trainer Steve Asmussen won the El Camino Real at San Francisco’s Golden Gate track in February.

Whatever you cut it, Castaway and Daddy Nose Best are the class of the field and who knows how much the odds will be bet down by post time. The three other possible challengers to the Big Two are…

*Isn’t He Clever won a big stakes race at this very track, and finished fourth in Santa Anita’s important Robert B. Lewis Stakes. While his win didn’t feature the kind of horses that will be on display Sunday, clearly Isn’t He Clever deserves respect and at 4-1 the morning line has given it to him.

*Ender Knievel has my favorite jockey/trainer combo of John Velazquez and Todd Pletcher (favorite from a prognostication standpoint, not a rooting one). Ender Knievel is on an arc of steady improvement, going from fifth to second to first in his last three races. Sunday will be his first run against stakes competition and at 6-1 he might be worthy a flyer.

*Stirred Up is another Baffert horse, this one ridden by Martin Garcia, who won the 2010 Preakness Stakes for Baffert aboard Lookin’ At Lucky. Stirred Up has ran three times at Santa Anita, and finished in the money all three times. Like Ender Knievel, this race has been set as his first appearance on the big stage.

If I were betting this race, I’d probably steer away from the favorites and split a bet evenly between Ender Knievel and Stirred Up with the hope that one of them would have their coming out party. But as a fan, I’d just like to watch a big showdown to the finish between Castaways and Daddy Nose Best.

Saturday also offers Derby Prep action, with the Rushaway Stakes at Turfway Park in Kentucky. Maybe it’s appropriate I’m writing this column with the Kentucky-Indiana Sweet 16 game on in the background so I can get in a BlueGrass kind of mood. It’ll take something to alter the mood, because given the $500,000 prize at stake, I find this eight-horse field to be disappointing.

The field splits evenly between four who have a legitimate chance, and four for whom there’s no rational reason to predict a win for in advance. But then again there is one rational reason and it’s this—none of the four  favorites have a resume worth getting excited about. Flashy Dresser at 5-2 is the morning line fave based on a non-stakes win at Gulfstream on March 4. With a resume that thin, he must really be impressing someone in workouts. Gung ho and Gold Megillah each clock in at 3-1. Each has good jockeys in Javier Castellano and Velazquez respectively. Gung Ho hasn’t run since October and most of his work has been at minor tracks. Medillagh has run seven races and only has one win. In his two stakes races he’s come in seventh and eighth. Then at 7-2 is Dynamical, who finished third in the John Battaglia, a big Derby Prep race here earlier this month.

This is the best four the Rushaway has to offer. None of the longshots looks live, although I guess if I had to, I’d take out a ticket on Sky Alert (15-1) and jockey Rosie Napravnik, just because I’m fascinated by the whole quest of her being the first female jock to try and win a Triple Crown race. But realistically I think the best bet is Dynamical, if only because he’s got a good showing in a big race to his credit.

All Derby Prep races are on HR-TV and TVG and both are available in the sports channel listing on your TV package. The Rushaway’s at a bad time—right after the tip of Florida-Louisville in tomorrow’s NCAA regional finals, one more reason to avoid it. But the Sunland will make some good Sunday evening entertainment, as a quick checkdown from the Miami-Oklahoma City NBA game. Take a couple minutes and see if a Derby favorite can emerge.