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Brad keselowski Cup chances

NASCAR Sprint Cup Series: One More In Miami

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The NASCAR Sprint Cup Series comes to close on Sunday afternoon in Miami with the running of the Ford-Ecoboost 400 at 2 PM ET on ESPN. We had a stunning turn of events last week, where Brad Keselowski not only made up a seven-point deficit against Jimmie Johnson for the lead, but blew past JJ and built up a 20-point cushion himself after a crash in Phoenix wiped out the leader. Now the only question left is whether turnabout will be fair play in Miami.

It’s going to take something incredibly dramatic for Johnson to catch Keselowski, and he’s the only driver with a chance. Even if JJ wins the race, Keselowski would need to finish just 15th to clinch the championship. And if Johnson finishes second or lower, Keselowski’s margin for error gets proportionally bigger, because it would mean Johnson didn’t get the bonus points that come with winning the race. Given that Keselowski has finished in the Top 10 in 23 of 35 races, there’s a lot that has to go right for JJ. We might further add that while Johnson has five wins—tied for the most, with Keselowski and Tony Stewart—when you say he’s won 5 of 35 races that cant’ engender optimism for a race that’s all but become must-win.

What it all boils down to is that we’re likely looking at an anticlimactic finish to what’s been an interesting year, starting with the crazy beginning at Daytona back in February and the fire on the track. Then there was Greg Biffle’s early lead, Carl Edwards’ fall from grace, Tony Stewart’s inability to run consistently and Jeff Gordon’s last-minute push to make the playoffs.

But according to TheSportsNotebook’s, NASCAR consultant, my brother Bill, no story will have more long-term consequences that Matt Kenseth’s decision to leave the Roush Fenway Racing team. We’ll see what this means for both Kenseth and the Fenway Racing Group. But the latter, as you might have guessed by its name, is the same ownership group that owns the Boston Red Sox. Apparently baseball isn’t the only sport where they’re having a hard time keeping star talent happy right now.

It’s been a great ride all season as we’ve followed the NASCAR drivers and learned about the tracks of America. TheSportsNotebook thanks Bill for his season-long insights and takes a chance and offers early congratulations to Keselowski, as he stands on the brink of his first Chase Cup.

NASCAR Chase For The Cup: Charlotte Crunch-Time

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Before last week’s race at Talladega, we talked about how difficult it was going to be for drivers beyond leaders Brad Keselowski and Jimmie Johnson to get back into the mix in the NASCAR Chase For The Cup. The events of last Sunday proved the point—Matt Kenseth, trailing in 12th place, won the race, got a 25-car pileup  that further hindered other drivers and still only moved from 72 points out to 62 back.

With only six races left, it’s impossible to see how Kenseth could make up enough ground, and the relatively minimal gain he made also underscores that comfortable position Keselowski has moved into. The leader extended his cushion over Johnson from five to fourteen points, and with the difficulty that exists in making up huge chunks of points, JJ likely needs two weeks of decisively beating Keselowski to turn the tide.

That’s the backdrop on Saturday night as the NASCAR Chase For The Cup arrives in Charlotte for the Bank Of America 500 (7 PM ET, ABC). TheSportsNotebook’s NASCAR consultant, my brother Bill, accurately saw the chaos that went down in Talladega last week, but he doesn’t have similar foreboding predictions for Charlotte.

“It’s a cookie-cutter track,” he said, using the term to describe track structures as generic as the artificial turf baseball stadiums of the 1970s that gave rise to the phrase. Bill opined that the Charlotte track would lend itself to speed and require a good car to pass, meaning those drivers who establish early position are going to be in good shape the rest of the day.

Kasey Kahne won here over Memorial Day weekend, and at fourth place in the standings, he’s one of a group of drivers hoping for a miracle finish. Others in similar position—anywhere from 20 to 50 points off the pace—include Denny Hamlin, Clint Bowyer, Jeff Gordon, Tony Stewart, Martin Truex and Kevin Harvick. Further down the list is Dale Earnhardt Junior, whose slim hopes were officially ended by word this week that he’ll be sidelined for a couple weeks with a concussion.