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College Basketball Weekend Preview

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It was last Saturday, in front of an ESPN audience, that Michigan State went to Columbus, held Ohio State to 26 percent shooting from the floor, and came up with a road win that turned the Big Ten race into a dead heat coming down the stretch. The Spartans and Buckeyes both answered tests during the week, beating Wisconsin and Minnesota respectively. Now they both face stern tests again on Saturday, each on the road.

ESPN’s Gameday will make the trek to Ann Arbor, where Ohio State visits Michigan (9 PM ET). The Wolverines are the one team left who can still get into the title picture, trailing the co-leaders by a game (Wisconsin fell by the wayside with their loss in East Lansing last night). Is homecourt, combined with the scoring Tim Hardaway Jr. and Trey Burke in the backcourt enough to beat an Ohio State team that can play the inside-out game with Jared Sullinger and William Buford? In fairness, that soundbite, doesn’t adequately factor in a depth advantage for Michigan. My problem is that here in the latter part of February I don’t know what to make of Ohio State. They go into Madison and get a nice road win, but then can’t seal the deal on their home floor. Call it a gut feeling, but I think the Wolverines, with the home crowd behind them, are able to ride out some big stretches from Sullinger and win this one at the wire.

On Sunday, it’s Michigan State-Purdue, and I would presume will be on CBS, given the 1 PM ET tip-time, but for some reason the network remains non-committal about its Big Ten game—as though Wisconsin-Penn State or Indiana-Iowa are better fare. As a Badger fan whose good friends with a Nittany Lion fan I appreciate the thought, but let’s get real—the Spartans-Boilers should be the showcase game. I like Michigan State’s chances a little better on the road. Robbie Hummel is capable of carrying Purdue, who is in a must-win spot in the race for the NCAA Tournament, but Tom Izzo has produced a team that rebounds the ball well and just seems very mentally tough, as last week’s road win shows. I like Michigan State to do it again and take sole possession of first place with two weeks to go.

Here at TheSportsNotebook we’ve been talking Bracket-Busters all week, in looking at the mid-major conferences. If you missed it, be sure and read this week’s overviews of Conference USA, the Missouri Valley and an eclectic mix of Harvard, Long Beach State and the Colonial’s Big Three (I don’t really know if that mix is “eclectic” but it makes me sound hip. Or stupid). And there’s previous material on Gonzaga, BYU & St. Mary’s, plus a piece on Murray State, which are a little more dated, but still relevant if you’re looking for a crash course on the midmajors. The two biggest games of Saturday’s feature will be St. Mary’s-Murray State (6 PM ET, ESPN) and Long Beach State-Creighton (10 PM ET, ESPN2). Of those four teams, St. Mary’s is the only I’d feel confident about getting an at-large bid to the NCAA if they lose the conference tournament. Murray and Long Beach would still have reasonable shots, but I think Creighton either must win this game or must win the automatic. And don’t overlook Yale-Harvard, where the Yalies can pull into a tie with the Crimson in a race where the regular season championship settles the NCAA bid.

Elsewhere around the country…            

BIG EAST: When you have a 16-team league, you’re going to have a lot of big NCAA bubble games this time of year. None are bigger than Seton Hall-Cincinnati, where I think the Bearcats could come close to sealing the deal if they win at home, and the Pirates really need a signature win. UConn needs to win a home date with Marquette on noon ET on ESPN, while the Golden Eagles still nurse an outside shot at catching Syracuse for first place.

PAC-12: Arizona-Washington is a monster battle here. The Huskies won a previous meeting by two points and are tied for first with Cal, with the Wildcats only one game back. Playing up in Seattle, I like Lorenzo Romar’s team to defend their home floor, but if you’re looking at a hot team who will be affordably seeded *in the NCAA bracket, Arizona’s one to watch.

MOUNTAIN WEST: Another big one in the West is UNLV-New Mexico. After an entire season of being comfortably ensconced in a UNLV-San Diego State paradigm in this conference race, the Lobos have jumped up and taken sole possession of first. They lead each rival by one game. Saturday’s game tips at 1 PM ET and will share CBS coverage along with a meaningless UCLA-St. John’s game. By “share” I’m sure that means pockets of Las Vegas and Albuquerque will get the good game, while the rest of us get stuck with the big market teams that are going nowhere.

ACC: Duke’s rally to beat N.C. State last night kept this a three-way tie, along with North Carolina and Florida State, and also denied the Wolfpack a chance for a badly needed win to secure an NCAA bid. Now N.C. State comes home and it’s Florida State that’s on the docket. North Carolina’s got a winnable home game with a respectable, if not NCAA-caliber Clemson team, while Duke visits lowly Boston College on Sunday night. In another bubble game,  Miami absolutely must take care of Wake Forest.

BIG 12: It’s a Missouri-Kansas race to the finish, with a head-to-head war in Lawrence still ahead. Mizzou takes to the road against Texas A&M. I can’t rule out a trap spot here, but the Tigers have been generally pretty good about avoiding such, save one defeat to Oklahoma State, and there’s nothing special that they’re coming off that would leave them susceptible to being trapped. Kansas has an easy win at home against Texas Tech.  On the bubble, Texas visits Oklahoma State, and the Longhorns recent strong play means that a couple more wins and it’s time to take them off the bubble and put them in.

SEC: Mississippi State is ranked 23rd, but if you’re looking for a Top 25 team begging for a come-uppance on Selection Sunday the Bulldogs are it, and they need to take care of business at Auburn. Kentucky has this league title wrapped up and host an Ole Miss team that still has a shot at playing its way into the NCAA field and missed an opportunity last night with a 102-96 overtime loss to Vanderbilt. Arkansas can also still play its way in, but needs to get a marquee home win over Florida.

ATLANTIC 10: The Battle Of Western Ohio Disappointments features Dayton-Xavier. The Flyers aren’t getting an at-large bid, and the Musketeers are in jeopardy. Xavier desperately has to win this game. The conference leaders, Temple and St. Louis, have winnable home dates with Duquesne and Fordham respectively.

Harvard, Long Beach State & Three CAA Bracket-Busters

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It’s been Bracket-Busters Week this week at TheSportsNotebook, as we look at the best of college basketball’s midmajors, and its Jeremy Lin Day today. So why not start with Lin’s alma mater at Harvard to lead up our look at five teams who hope to bust up brackets in March? We’ll also look at Long Beach State, along with three contenders in the Colonial. And if you missed it, be sure to check out previous posts this week on Conference USA and the Missouri Valley, along with earlier commentaries done on the West Coast Conference trio (Gonzaga, BYU, St. Mary’s) and Murray State.

Harvard (21-3, 7-1) leads the Ivy League by a game over Yale and Penn, and with no postseason tournament, the regular season champ takes home the bid. The Crimson stands at 21-3 overall and is projected as a #10 seed by ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi. One thing to note is that an at-large selection is highly unlikely. The Ivy League plays off ties, so for Harvard to miss the automatic would mean losing  at least two more games and with only one really good win on the schedule (Florida State back in November) that’s probably not enough to get in.

The good news is that the schedule works well for Harvard down the stretch, as they have both Yale and Penn at home the next two Saturdays and a sweep locks up the championship. Harvard’s primary strength lies with the forwards, where 6’7” junior Kyle Casey and 6’8” senior Keith Wright each average 11 ppg and are pretty good rebounders. Laurent Rivera is the prime backcourt threat, also scoring 11 ppg, and being an above-average outside shooter. Brandyn Curry, a 6’1” junior is the point guard who oversees it all and his passing skills are solid.

What I don’t like about Harvard as far as NCAA Tournament matchups go is that there’s no real consistent three-point threat, and Curry is a very poor shooter, meaning defenses can back off on him and the better talent he’ll face is more likely to cut off passing lanes than Ivy League competition is. What I do like about Harvard is that, like most good midmajor teams, they’re experienced. If they draw a young team in the first round, I could see picking them. But on balance, I don’t put them in a class with the Cornell team that made the Sweet 16 in 2010.

Long Beach State (19-6, 12-0) doesn’t have the dazzling overall record, but this is a team that went out and tested themselves in the non-conference portion of the schedule. They beat Pitt and Xavier, while losing to Louisville, North Carolina, Kansas, Kansas State and San Diego State. The Xavier win came when the Musketeers had their key players suspended, so that won’t help much if the 49ers have to plead for mercy after losing a conference tournament game. But the rest of that schedule will, as well as the fact that for the most party LBSU played well.

Long Beach State has got a good three-point marksman in Larry Anderson, and Casper Ware is a 17 ppg scorer in the backcourt. There’s no natural big man, but the trio of James Emmis, Eugene Phelps and T.J. Robinson all score in double figures. The 49ers are currently a projected #11 seed and they have a big game against Creighton on the road Saturday night. If Long Beach can get that win, I think they’re in the field regardless of what happens in the conference tournament. A loss leaves things a little shaky, but if they make it, this is a team that’s got the scoring balance, three-point shooting and mental toughness to win two games.

No midmajor conference is more synonymous with Cinderella, thanks to the work of George Mason in 2006 and Virginia Commonwealth last season. Both schools are in a hot three-team race along with Drexel this time around. But there will only be one bid for the CAA and that’s going to the conference tournament champion. The non-conference resumes are bleak, with VCU’s win over South Florida being the best the Colonial has to offer. Lunardi has Drexel, the first-place team of the moment, as a #14 seed, so it’s all about the conference tournament. Here’s a quick look at the three teams…

Drexel (22-5, 14-2): Frantz Massenat, a sophomore guard scores and distributes, and is lights-out from behind the arc. Size is what hurts the Dragons, as they’re only reliable rebounder is Samme Givens at 6’5”.

George Mason (22-6, 14-2): Senior forward Ryan Person carries this team with an 18/9 average each night, while another senior forward Mike Morrison is the top supporting player. Mason can win this league tournament, but sophomore guard Bryan Allen has to expressly forbid from ever attempting a three-point shot, where he hits only 18 percent.

Virginia Commonwealth (22-6, 13-3): Brandon Burgess is the best holdover from last year’s Final Four team, and while he’s good, he’s not a standout. 6’9” sophomore Juvonte Reddic is a potential game-changer in a tournament environment, but the Rams are another team that has to do all their offensive work inside the three-point line. On an intangible level, they are the more tested team, having played Seton Hall and Alabama, along with South Florida.

Beyond name recognition for George Mason and VCU, it’s tough to take any of the teams seriously as a March threat, but the conference tournament in Richmond promises to be a fun one. It goes March 2-5, while the power conferences are still finishing up their regular season. I give VCU the edge based on home-city advantage and being more tested.

 

 

Wichita State & Creighton Lead Up Missouri Valley Bracket Busters

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Bracket Busters week continues at TheSportsNotebook today as we take a closer look at Missouri Valley contenders Wichita State and Creighton Yesterday’s feature was on Conference USA, with a special emphasis on Southern Miss and Memphis, and two weeks ago we looked at the West Coast Conference’s Big Three of Gonzaga, BYU and St. Mary’s. Now let’s delve into flyover country with the midmajor powers in Kansas and Nebraska…

Wichita State (22-4, 13-2, projected #6 seed): The Shockers have a good basketball tradition and recently made the Sweet 16 in the wild year of 2006 before they lost to George Mason. If you really want to turn back the clock, Wichita made a regional final in 1981 when they lost to LSU. This team is in the mold of those two and has a very realistic chance to get out of the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament and can have a darkhorse shot at the Final Four.

There’s nothing Wichita doesn’t do well. With 7’0” Garrett Stutz anchoring the low post at 14 points/8 rebounds a game, the Shockers won’t be outmuscled down low. Joe Ragland runs the offense adroitly at the point. Ragland distributes the ball well. He scores both inside and outside the three-point line. And if he needs a rest, Demetric Williams is a capable backup. Toure’ Murry is a solid 12 ppg man at the two-guard, although head coach Gregg Marshall might want to ban Murry (his name really isn’t “Murray”, that’s not a misspelling) from shooting treys. No such ban would be needed for Ben Smith, who isn’t as prolific as Murry overall, but can hit from downtown. Power forward Carl Hall and backup guard David Kyles know their roles and contribute. You name strength, and Wichita has it.

Before we all get set to pencil in Wichita as the surprise team to be in New Orleans for the Final Four, the downside is simply this—they haven’t beaten a lot of good teams. UNLV is the best win on the non-conference schedule, and while that’s a nice scalp, the next-best win is over Tulsa, who might be a live darkhorse in the Conference USA tournament, but is not someone good enough to be in NCAA at-large consideration. Furthermore, Wichita lost to Alabama, a team on the bubble, and Temple. Again, not bad losses if you’re thinking about a midmajor team just to make the NCAA field as an at-large. But for all the quality pieces Wichita has, they are going to be mystery against non-Missouri Valley competition when March arrives. My nightmare scenario has them playing Vanderbilt or Baylor, putting three teams that can rip your heart out all together.

Creighton (22-5, 12-4, projected #6 seed): The NCAA seed projection comes from Joe Lunardi, the bracketologist at ESPN.com and I’m surprise he’s got the Bluejays this high. On the surface the resume is very similar to Wichita. But Creighton is slumping badly. Prior to a win last night over Southern Illinois, Creighton had dumped three straight, including a 21-point loss to the Shockers that temporarily settled first place in the conference on Saturday. Creighton has no impressive wins in non-league play—Iowa, Nebraska and Northwestern are the best they can do.

What the Bluejays do have is the best player in the conference in dynamic forward Doug McDermott. The 6’7” sophomore is averaging 23/9 a night, and shoots a net-shredding 50 percent from three-point range. He gets solid help underneath from Gregory Echenique, at 10/8, and the backcourt is very efficient. Antoine Young and Gary Gibbs combine for 11 assists a game, meaning either one can bring the ball up and run the offense with equal effectiveness. Young is the slightly better scorer, while the 6’4” Gibbs can steal a few more rebounds off the wing. If winning in NCAA play is about getting one great player to carry you for a weekend, McDermott is a good bet to do so. When it comes to making a dark horse run all the way through a regional, I would be less optimistic about Creighton than Wichita, based on the depth question. But if McDermott’s locked in when the tournament starts, Creighton will be dangerous.

But to return to Creighton’s resume issues, I’m going to take the rare step of questioning how high Lunardi has them seeded. If the committee takes recent form into account, Creighton is going to lose points on that. They’d still be in the field, but it would reduce the cushion considerably. They have a very tough game against Long Beach State on Saturday night. Let’s say they lose that one, and end the regular season at 24-6.

Then we have to assume a loss in the conference tournament, since otherwise Creighton would be in automatically and this whole discussion irrelevant.  If the loss came to Wichita in the finals, we’re talking 26-7 and the best win being an earlier game with Wichita and Northwestern, both of which came prior to the New Year. And if the presumed tournament loss came sooner than the final? Serious trouble. I think Creighton needs to either beat Long Beach State on Saturday or win the conference tournament.

 

Southern Miss & Memphis Lead Up Conference USA Race

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TheSportsNotebook is taking a close look at midmajor conferences this week, with Bracket Busters games going Friday and Saturday. Conference USA isn’t officially a part of this weekend gala, but they are loaded with teams that could…well, bust a bracket, so let’s take a look at the race.

Southern Miss and Memphis are each 8-2 in the conference and each are projected as a #8 seed. Southern Miss would have to be considered the greater among equals though, with a 21-4 overall record and the Tigers suffered a key injury, which will get to momentarily. Just behind the co-leaders are Tulsa and Central Florida.

The Golden Eagles non-conference resume won’t blow you away—Ole Miss is the only win that comes even close to the level of being impressive, and that’s pushing it. What Larry Eustachy’s team has done is stay consistent and create a clear identity for themselves. They give seven players substantial minutes and gun three-pointers without conscience. LaShay Page shoots seven treys a game, Maurice Bolden, a 6’10” senior plays as a swingman and hits 39 percent from behind the arc. Neil Watson, the diminutive 5’11” sophomore not only dishes five assists a game, but hits 40 percent from three-point range.

In spite of not having a true post player Southern Miss has been able to win games through rebounding. They won key games against Central Florida and Memphis by beating the opposition to the glass. The usual pitfalls that come with relying heavily on the three-ball exist—Southern Miss took a tough loss at Memphis because they were cold from the floor, but this is a team that’s well-coached, has a clear identity and presuming they can make it out of the first round, can be a live dog against a top seed in the second round.

The schedule the rest of the way is pretty manageable. Southern Miss’ road games with Houston and UTEP, plus a home date with SMU are against teams with losing records. Then a home date with Rice and a season finale at Marshall are against NIT or CBI-level opposition. It’s reasonable to expect Eustachy’s team to run the table, which likely wraps up an outright C-USA title.

Memphis isn’t as deep as Southern Miss, and the Tigers suffered a key loss on January 24 when freshman swingman Adonis Thomas was lost for the season with a knee injury. Averaging 10 ppg and a legit threat from downtown, Thomas wasn’t a star, but was a key part of a team that now only has four steady contributors. The good news is that one of those four, Will Barton, is the best player in C-USA. The 6’6” sophomore guard is averaging 18 points/8 rebounds/3 assists a game, and the fact he shoots 51 percent from the floor tells you he isn’t doing it by being a ballhog. Joe Jackson and Tarik Block are both sophs who average 10 a night. The lack of depth and the fact this team is very young—all four main contributors, including point guard and three-point marksman Chris Crawford are sophs—mean it’s likely they come in second, but at a projected #8 seed, it looks like they’ve got some cushion for getting into the Dance.

Chasing the leaders are…

Central Florida (18-7, 7-4): Joe Lunardi’s Bracketology over at ESPN.com has the Knights missing the NCAA right now, but in the group of teams that anywhere from 5 to 8 spots from qualifying, so if we’re looking at a political poll we might say that it’s within the margin of error. And if we’re looking at a basketball team in mid-February we might say they have a chance to play their way in without a doubt. Marcus Jordan leads the way for UCF, averaging 15 ppg from his two-guard spot and firing away from three-point range an average of six times a night. He gets solid inside help from Keith Clanton, a 6’9” junior who averages a 15/9, while Isaiah Sykes doesn’t let a relatively small 6’5” frame stop him from grabbing seven boards a night, to go with 12 points. A.J. Romps is solid at the point and Tristan Spurlock can help in the post and occasionally step out and hit the three-ball.

Tulsa (15-10, 8-3): Chasing the conference championship is about pride for the Golden Hurricanes, because they aren’t on the NCAA Tournament’s radar and will have to win the league tourney to get an automatic. But even if the Selection Committee won’t give a regular season due credit, it’s still something for a basketball program to be proud of and Tulsa’s got a shot. They’ve got their own three-point gunner in Scottie Hardson who hits 42 percent while firing up seven a game. Jordan Clarkson is a solid all-around guard, averaging a 16/4/3 line while shooting above average from the floor and three-point range. The X-factors are Kodi Maduka and Steve Tallet, a pair of 6’11” forwards, who don’t dominate, but create huge matchup problems for any of the contenders. If Maduka and Tallet come up with a big conference tournament and Hardson is hot from the outside, Tulsa can win the event and the automatic.

Speaking of X-factors, one to consider is that the league tournament will be held in Memphis, meaning Central Florida might be better off seeded fourth and taking their chances in the semi-finals with a Southern Miss team that’s probably going to have a bid locked up. UCF may need to at least reach the final to have a shot at an at-large and playing a road game against Memphis would be less than ideal.

Regardless of how it shakes out, this promises to be an interesting race the rest of the way, a fun league tourney and its leaders will be the kind that make or break brackets on the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament.

 

St. Mary’s, Gonzaga, BYU Battle In The West Coast Conference

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The West Coast Conference is the leading power among the midmajors this year (for the record, I include the Mountain West and Atlantic 10 among the “majors”), with the addition of BYU giving them three solid contenders to not just make the NCAA Tournament, but make some noise in March. St. Mary’s, Gonzaga and BYU are looking to close the season strong and the push starts tomorrow night when the Zags match up with BYU (11 PM ET, ESPN2). Today, TheSportsNotebook takes a look at the WCC’s Big Three. The NCAA Tournament seed projections come from ESPN.com’s Joe Lunardi and are based on whether the season ended today.

St. Mary’s (21-2, 10-0, projected #5 seed): The Gaels’ have the dazzling record, but the non-conference resume is pretty thin. One of the losses was an inexplicable defeat to Denver early on, and they also lost to Baylor, a rematch of a Sweet 16 game from the 2010 NCAA Tournament. Actually that’s not a “thin” resume, it’s a non-existent one. What St. Mary’s does have is the fact they’re 3-0 against their two WCC rivals, with an impressive road win at BYU last Saturday night completing a season sweep.

St. Mary’s is a finesse team that relies on three-point shooting. Rob Jones and Clint Steindl are the only forwards who get regular playing time and neither goes taller than 6’7”. Jones plays bigger than his height and posts 14 points/11 rebounds a night, while Steindl is more effective when coming outside to hit the trey. The backcourt is led by the outstanding Matthew Dellavedova, who scores, hits from outside and distributes. Stephen Holts is an able running mate who can do all of the above almost as well.

I respect the Gaels—look as an Irish Catholic I’m going to respect any school named the St. Mary’s Gaels. But I don’t look at them and see a team really ready to shake up the college basketball establishment. I question if Jones can keep “playing big” when he goes against better teams—for that matter, when he goes to Gonzaga on February 9. I question whether Dellavedova can get his shots against faster defenses. Above all, I question how far this team might slip in the eyes of the Selection Committee if they lose a few games. On the surface, Gonzaga and a February 18 trip to Murray State would be the only problem areas, but if they somehow dropped a couple more, I could see a free-fall to the NCAA bubble happening.

Gonzaga (17-3, 71, projected #6 seed): Other than the road loss to St. Mary’s, the Zags have only lost to Illinois and Michigan State. Meanwhile they’ve beaten Notre Dame, Arizona, Butler and Xavier, giving them the overall resume St. Mary’s lacks. They also have the post players that their rival lacks. Robert Sacre occupies the middle and the 7-footer averages a 12/7 every night. Elias Harris is at power forward, with a 14/8 line, mixed with a nice shooting touch when he comes out for the three-ball.

What Gonzaga doesn’t have is backcourt experience. Kevin Pangos has gotten the job done at the point and is a respectable shooter, but he’s only a freshman. He’s joined by another freshman Gary Bell. Along with Sacre and Harris these are the Core Four for this team. The fifth spot is shared by 6’9” Sam Dower and 5’11: David Stockton, giving Mark Few flexibility when it comes to what type of lineup he wants to put on the floor. Stockton can hit the trey, but he’s only a sophomore, adding to the backcourt inexperience problem. If this were the NBA, we’d be talking about Gonzaga adding a veteran point guard at the trade deadline—is Sam Cassell still available? Another potential problem with this group of guards is that none are taller than 6’1”, giving up a few inches to Dellanova and Holt against St. Mary’s, and also creating potential matchup problems against BYU, as we’ll see next.

BYU (18-6, 6-3, misses field by 1-4 spots): The Cougars clearly could have used that home win over St. Mary’s last Saturday night and they really need the game against Gonzaga tomorrow night. The only wins of note are Oregon and Virginia Tech, while the losses include Loyola Marymount and Utah State. BYU’s forwards are talented, with Noah Hartsock and Brandon Davies combining to average a 33/13 line each night. The Coogs also have a freshman point guard in Matt Carlino, but they do have more experience on the wings, with 6’6” Brock Zykstra and 6’5” Charles Abouo. Both have good range in shooting the three, and both make a contribution in going to the boards.

With Hartsock, Davies, Zykstra and Abouo, the Cougars can play the wings as well as anyone, but they combine St. Mary’s problem of no true center and Gonzaga’s problem of inexperience at the point. They still have both games with Gonzaga ahead of them, starting tomorrow night and short of winning the conference tournament, those games are their best chances to play their way in.