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Big Ten basketball race

Big Ten Basketball Race: Showdowns Ahead This Week

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We’re about one-third of the way through the conference schedules in the college basketball season and the Big Ten has a big week ahead. Four teams have just one loss in league play and they all go head-to-head this week. It starts tonight with Iowa-Wisconsin (9 PM ET, ESPN) and continues on Thursday night with Maryland-Indiana (9, ESPNU). Let’s take this opportunity for a quick primer on the key players in the Big Ten basketball race.

Let me begin by saying that by no means am I dismissing Michigan State, which has two losses. Nor Michigan, who won last year’s Big Ten title in a runaway. But there will be other opportunities to discuss those teams. For now, we know that two teams will be tied for first by the weekend and those two will be the winners of the games above. Here’s a summation of Wisconsin, Maryland, Indiana and Iowa.
Wisconsin (16-2 overall, 4-1 league, ranked #6): The top-heavy favorite when the season opened, the Badgers have mostly lived up to their press clippings. Their home loss to Duke was a great game against an extremely good opponent. Then UW dumped a game to Rutgers and lost point guard Traevon Jackson to a foot injury until the latter part of February.
Wisconsin still has a physical front line, with national Player Of The Year candidate Frank Kaminsky averaging 17 points/8 rebounds. Nigel Hayes, an immensely talented sophomore is coming into his own with a 12/7 average, and versatile Sam Dekker is at 12/5. Josh Gasser is a lights-out three-point shooter that loosens up defenses for the inside players.
This is clearly the most talented team in the Big Ten, but there are two concerns. First, we don’t know how the offense is going to function without Jackson running the show. Second, Wisconsin really hasn’t beaten anyone. Oklahoma is the most impressive win.
This isn’t incredibly alarming because the Badgers haven’t played the best teams in the Big Ten so saying they haven’t beaten anyone is really just a way of saying they lost to Duke. So the Badgers are still the team to beat, but if they don’t play well against the top contenders, something that starts tonight, keep this in mind.
Maryland (17-2 overall, 5-1 league, ranked #13): Maryland has the most impressive resume of any Big Ten team right now. The Terps have swept Michigan State and beaten a good Iowa State team. One of their losses was on the road at undefeated Virginia.
Maryland has gotten a big spark from freshman Melo Trimble. The 6’2” guard is averaging 16 ppg, and he joins talented senior guard Dez Wells, who knocks down 14 ppg. Jake Layman, a 6’8” junior, bangs around underneath to the tune of 15 points/7 rebounds per game.
The lack of depth inside is a concern, but Michigan State is the most likely team to have exploited that, and the Terps met the challenge not once, but twice. The bigger challenge will be on February 24 when they have their lone meeting with Wisconsin.

Indiana (14-4 overall, 4-1 league, ranked #23): Tom Crean’s Hoosiers love to shoot the three-ball. A guard-heavy lineup spreads the floor and lets it fly from behind the arc. No one shoots from downtown better than James Blackmon Jr, averaging 17 ppg. And point guard Yogi Ferrell is as good a guard as there is in this league, averaging 15 points/4 rebounds/5 assists, as he does it all each time out.
Big_Ten_Conference_logoIU is a small team though, with only 6’7” sophomore Troy Williams (13/6) to play underneath. They’ve looked woefully overmatched by Louisville, and lost an overtime game to Georgetown because they couldn’t match up with the Hoyas inside game. There have been some nice wins—SMU and Pitt—but while the Hoosiers’ aggressive three-point shooting can make them a nightmare for a favorite to play, it also makes them likely to dump a few games when the shots don’t fall.
Iowa (13-5 overall, 4-1 league, ranked #25): Iowa is the reverse of Indiana—the Hawkeyes find their strength underneath with Aaron White and Jarrod Utoff, while struggling in the backcourt. White and Utoff combine to average 29/14 each night, and they’ve been able to beat North Carolina and sweep Ohio State. Losses to Texas, Syracuse and Iowa State aren’t bad. But they’ve also lost to Northern Iowa.
Iowa plays exceptionally hard and they’ve been able to give Wisconsin a hard time in Madison, something not a lot of teams can say. It’s definitely something to keep an eye on tonight, but over the long season the lack of consistent guard play will likely doom any conference championship hopes.
If you could combine Indiana’s guards with Iowa’s frontcourt, you’d have a championship contender. Right now, both teams look more like spoilers. Wisconsin looks a lot more complete than Maryland, but the Terps have demonstrated more on the floor to this point in the season. I’m a partisan Wisconsin fan and am still picking the Badgers to win the Big Ten basketball race, but they face tough challenges ahead.

Indiana Basketball Still Has Question Marks

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Before the Harbaugh brothers kick it off in the Super Bowl, the Harbaugh sister gets a little bit of the national spotlight on Saturday night. Joanie Harbaugh is married to Tom Crean, the head basketball coach at Indiana, and the third-ranked Hoosiers will host #1 Michigan in a battle atop the Big Ten in prime time (9 PM ET, ESPN). My guess is that Joanie will get more camera time than normal on this weekend. Here at TheSportsNotebook we’re going to take a deeper look at Indiana basketball, and see if Crean can continue this extended family’s amazing coaching run.

Indiana is built around the talents of sophomore center Cody Zeller. The 7-footer averages 16 points/8 rebounds per game. If you think you’re going to collapse down on him defensively, think again. There are three-point shooter arrayed about, starting with senior point guard Jordan Hulls who hits a sizzling 48 percent from behind the arc. Christian Watford is a forward who can both rebound, as well as step out and hit from downtown. Victor Oladipo shoots the trey more selectively, but he can still bury it if a defender decides to sag off and stop his great skill in going off the dribble. Then you can mix in freshman guard Yogi Ferrell and junior forward Will Sheehey, and there’s really no way Indiana can’t beat you on the offensive end.

But a program whose greatest moments came under Bob Knight surely understands the importance of defense, and here is where some red flags have to go up. There are four signature games Indiana has played so far—wins over Minnesota and Michigan State, along with losses to Butler and Wisconsin. The common trend is that all four opponents have shot 45 percent or better from the floor. Indiana was able to get the two wins, plus take Butler to overtime because they enjoyed pronounced advantages in getting to the free throw line. When the free-throw scoring edge disappeared against Wisconsin, the Hoosiers lost a not-as-close-as-it-sounds 64-59 decision on their home floor.

Is it really a sign of impending greatness when your formula against good times seems to rely on shooting twice as many free throws? You can argue that this will sustain itself—to go back to the Knight era, Indiana usually enjoyed big edges at the charity stripe under the legendary coach. But the free throw advantage has been evident in home games, and the one case it wasn’t—Wisconsin—was against a team that played a disciplined style, not conducive to drawing fouls against.

Thus, am I being unreasonable in suggesting that Indiana hasn’t done anything to suggest they could win a sequence of games against highly ranked, well-coached teams on a neutral floor—which is kind of the definition of what winning the NCAA Tournament requires? I don’t think I am.

Lest Indiana fans think I’m being too tough, let me bring out a few other points. The first and most obvious is this—they’re 19-2, and I do think it would be unreasonable to expect any better. My concern is more in what I see as some underlying problems. Indiana’s toughest games are also ahead of them. After Saturday night, they go immediately to Illinois and Ohio State. Further down the line, there are road games with Michigan State and Minnesota and a season finale in Ann Arbor. If Indiana wins more of these than they lose, than the questions are answered.

I opened the season with grave doubts about Indiana as the #1 team in the country. I thought they were good and I still think they’re good. They’ve shown a consistency that at least suggests they could make a Final Four run if they get a little break in the bracket along the way. But if you want to say they’re a top-level team that could win 2-3 games in a row against the national elite on a neutral floor, I’m not seeing any evidence of that. Maybe I will in the month of February, but the Hoosiers aren’t there yet.

MICHIGAN PROVES ITSELF

At the start of the season I also had doubts about Michigan as a top-level team. Those doubts are gone now. Michigan’s got a much more impressive resume of wins than does Indiana—beating N.C. State, Pitt and Kansas State in non-conference, getting a big conference road win at Minnesota and the Wolverines’ one loss was a good road game at Ohio State. I’m not saying this means Michigan will win on Saturday night—frankly, I don’t expect them to. But we know UM can play well on the road and I would expect them to be in position to play for the Big Ten title in that season finale at home against Indiana.

My doubts about Michigan were rooted in wondering if freshman forward Glenn Robinson III would be up to speed immediately—I know it happens a lot in college ball these days, but I don’t know that we should assume it. And an even bigger doubt was the lack of proven three-point shooting. Robinson is averaging 12 points/6 rebounds a game, and the veteran guards, Tim Hardaway Jr. and Trey Burke have stepped it up from behind the arc. Hardaway is hitting 41 percent, Burke’s hitting 37 percent and the Wolverines still have the ability to beat you off the dribble. The question marks are now exclamation points.

Big Ten Basketball Race Comes To Crisler Arena Tonight

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Big Ten basketball comes under the ESPN spotlight on Tuesdays and tonight it’s Michigan-Michigan State in Ann Arbor. MSU is tied for first in the conference with Illinois, each with a 4-1 record, while Michigan and Ohio State are each 4-2. The league champion looks all but certain to come out of this quartet—I mean no disrespect to Purdue at 3-2, but the Boilers are rebuilding, while Wisconsin and Indiana each have three league losses. So let’s at the Big Ten’s top four teams and break them down…

Michigan State (15-3, 4-1): It was supposed to a rebuilding year for Tom Izzo’s program too, but the Spartan head coach keeps finding a cadre of players who hit the boards hard and keep the team in games. Draymond Green is the stud in the post, averaging 16 points and 10 rebounds a game, but what’s really impressive is the slew of depth Izzo brings off the bench. Adrien Payne and Derrick Nix don’t stand out, but they each grab 4-5 rebounds a game, as does Branden Dawson. That’s called bringing a complete team effort to rebounding the ball and it’s what Izzo has consistently produced through his Hall of Fame-caliber run in East Lansing. Think Izzo’s happy he turned down the “opportunity” to go to the Cleveland Cavaliers in the summer of 2010?

Keith Appling leads a backcourt that isn’t as deep, but can at least provide some offense. Appling is averaging 13 ppg and shoots the ball well from the floor. The same goes for Brandon Wood. What neither does really well is hit from behind the arc, so MSU will be vulnerable in games where an opponent gets heated up.

Illinois (15-3, 4-1): It was a week ago tonight that Illini guard Brandon Paul stunned Ohio State with a 43-point showing and led the way to a win over the Buckeyes that really re-shaped the conference race. It marked Illinois as a contender and pulled preseason favorite Ohio State clearly back to the pack. Bruce Weber still has some concerns to deal with—the defense does not always play at a championship level. Purdue shot 56 percent against Illinois, in the one conference loss, and the Illini also allowed Nebraska to hit 50 percent. It goes without saying you don’t want to be in spots where Paul has to hang 40-plus for the team to beat quality opponents.

Paul has a good running mate in the backcourt with D.J. Richardson, who’s not only a double-digit scorer, but is a solid three-point shooter, making him a perfect foil for 7’1” sophomore center Meyers Leonard who’s averaging 13/8. That’s a good inside-outside combo to put together around Paul, and if third guard Sam Maniscalco can get beyond his nagging ankle injury, Weber will have a deep backcourt, good three-point shooter, solid post option and go-to star. That’s a championship formula, as long as they D it up.

Ohio State (14-4, 4-2): They were the #1 team in the country going into last year’s NCAA Tournament and with sophomore forward Jared Sullinger coming back, this year was supposed to be more of the same. It still might, but the Buckeyes are looking very beatable in the Big Ten. The Notebook broke them down more extensively last week in the lineup, looking at the key foursome of Sullinger, DeShaun Thomas, William Buford and Aaron Craft. In looking at the losses to Indiana and Illinois, we can look at the backcourt. They gave up the aforementioned 43 to Paul, and against IU there were 17 turnovers. What the Buckeyes have going for them is a demonstrated ability to blow people out when they’re clicking, with an average victory margin of 27.5 points in their four Big Ten wins. If they can find a way to win close games too, those preseason expectations are still well within reach.

Michigan (14-4, 4-2): The talent doesn’t overwhelm you in Ann Arbor, at least beyond 6’6” sophomore guard Tim Hardaway Jr, who’s averaging 16 ppg. John Beilein is still looking for consistent production down low. Sophomores Evan Smotrycz and Jordan Morgan are respectable rebounders, but neither has really emerged as a top-flight offensive option at this stage of their careers. In the backcourt, senior Zack Novak is a decent shooter, but won’t wake up memories of Glen Rice anytime soon. The pleasant surprise has been the play of freshman point guard Trey Burke, who’s running the show and doing a good enough job with his shot to make defenses come out and play him.

The Wolverines are the one shaky team among this foursome, with narrow wins over Minnesota and Northwestern and a decisive loss to Iowa. I suspect they’re going to fall back into the group with Purdue, Wisconsin and Indiana that will compete for an NCAA Tournament bid and be a live spoiler, but not a true championship contender. We are about to find out right now. Starting tonight, Michigan’s coming Big Ten schedule is Michigan State, at Purdue, at Ohio State, Indiana and at Michigan State. Plus a non-conference trip to Arkansas comes up this weekend. That schedule stretch will be completed on Super Bowl Sunday and we’ll know beyond a doubt how good Michigan is. The test starts tonight in front of the home crowd at Crisler.

Inside Ohio State Hoops

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Ohio State gets the ESPN stage tonight at Illinois (9 PM ET), as we start the run of Tuesdays being Big Ten-SEC night for a college hoops doubleheader. The Buckeyes are 15-2 and ranked #5 in the country. Coming off a season in which they won the Big Ten and earned a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament before losing in the Sweet 16 to Kentucky, Ohio State has great expectations for this year’s team, especially when forward Jared Sullinger decided to return for his sophomore season. The record and ranking suggest they’re living up to it, although they are one of five Big Ten teams trailing league leader Michigan State by a half-game. Let’s break down the Ohio State lineup and see what the future might hold…

Jared Sullinger (6’9” Sophomore): He’s the man the hopes in Columbus are built around and is averaging 17 points and 10 rebounds a game. Sullinger is a pure post player. He’s not a hybrid that you’ll see step out and take three-point shots. Given that, I would like to see a little more dominance on the glass against good teams. In the three toughest opponents he’s faced—Florida, Duke and Indiana, Sullinger has yet to have a 10-plus rebound game. That’s a high bar to set, and in fairness he’s not been  AWOL in any of those games. The one game he was out was Kansas, and the Buckeyes lost that one. I only set the 10-rebound benchmark because Ohio State’s expectations are so high and Sullinger has to be the man that puts them on his back.

DeShaun Thomas (6’7” Sophomore): Thomas’ emergence this season has been huge in getting Sullinger some help down low. Thomas averages 15 points a game, and while he’s not a great rebounder, this is the forward who can step out and drain it from behind the arc. Like Sullinger, Thomas shoots a good percentage from the floor and his outside touch makes him a big X-factor against good teams.

Lenzell Smith (6’4” Sophomore): Smith is the weak link in this starting lineup, averaging five points a game and he’s a 47 percent foul shooter. His big moment might be in March when Ohio State’s trying to hold a slim lead and an opponent forces the ball to Smith so they can foul him. Then those free throws decide how a 19-year old kid will be remembered in Columbus. I’m getting ahead of myself in the hypotheticals here, but right now Smith is a non-factor in this lineup.

William Buford (6’6” Senior): The veteran is the big scorer on the wings. He shoots a respectable 44 percent from the floor and 36 percent from behind the arc. You want the ball in his hands at the end of games as a vet who can hit his free throws. Buford has also played big in the biggest games—21 points against Florida, 20 against Duke and 21 at Kansas. At least until New Year’s Eve in Indiana when the Hoosiers held him to eight. The fact Ohio State lost that game tells you something about the importance of Buford’s scoring. He’s  the second-most important player on the team behind Sullinger.

Aaron Craft (6’2” Sophomore): Craft runs the show and averages a solid five assists a game. The surest way to cause problems for the Buckeyes is to force Craft into turnovers and that’s what Indiana was able to do. Craft is a pretty good shooter from the floor, so you can’t back off him and play the pass. But at the free throw line he’s only 68 percent and this is the guy who’s going to have to break pressure in close games down the stretch.

This lineup overall is nicely balanced, with Sullinger being a pure post man, something that’s hard to find in college hoops, with Buford handling the backcourt scoring, Craft distributing and Thomas working as a solid support player. The problems this team has is depth and experience. You may have noted that four of the starters are sophomores, and while this matters a lot less than it once did, thanks to all the early entries for the NBA, it still has to be something that concerns head coach Thad Matta. Depth is also a critical factor. There’s no one beyond the starting five really accumulating notable minutes and even with the starting five, Smith is a dead spot. Ohio State’s Core Four of Sullinger, Thomas, Buford and Craft is going to have to carry them.

After tonight’s game at Illinois, Ohio State gets a rematch on Sunday with Indiana (4:30 PM ET, CBS). It looks like the best way to beat the Buckeyes is to create some flow problems in the backcourt and get Craft to turn the ball over. Illinois has a good guard combination in D.J. Richardson and Brandon Paul, although Richardson is nursing an ankle injury. He’ll play tonight, but who knows what the effectiveness level will be. Illinois is also missing third guard Sam Manicalco, so for this night Bruce Weber has a bigger depth problem than Matta. Then it’s the rematch with Indiana, a must-win game. Ohio State lost the first game because they turned it over 17 times. While IU is tough down low with Cody Zeller at center, the Buckeyes beat them on the glass, an area they’ve dominating in the Big Ten. With homecourt advantage and perhaps less sloppy play, Ohio State can get two wins this week.

Wins over Illinois and Indiana are followed by an easy week with games against Nebraska and Penn state. If Ohio State is 7-1 in conference play by then, the Big Ten schedule can start for real on January 29 when they play Michigan and usher in a set of four tough gamest that include a battle with Michigan State.

So can Ohio State fulfill its promise? I have deep doubts, due to the lack of depth. I would still pick them to win the Big Ten, but in a much more balanced race than was originally anticipated and I see them a step behind a team like North Carolina or even Baylor, who could be the ones standing in the way of a national title.