Menu

Big 12 football race

The BCS Bowl Race: The Big 12 Fights To The Finish

, , , , , , ,

Kansas State has had two weeks to lick its wounds since their national championship hopes came crashing down in a 52-24 loss at Baylor on November 17. Now the Wildcats can refocus on the task of earning their first BCS bowl bid since they last won the Big 12 in 2003. Kansas State plays host to Texas (8 PM ET, ABC) in the second of a two-part act in a big day for this conference.

The Big 12 might be out of the national championship race and it might not have anyone playing for bowl eligibility, but in between there’s still plenty up for grabs. The Fiesta Bowl bid K-State is angling for is the biggest. The conference is also in position to snag a second BCS slot—likely to the Sugar, and they also have to settle who gets the league’s bid to the Cotton Bowl—the top non-BCS prize, where the opportunity to play a prestigious opponent—probably LSU or Texas A&M, possibly Alabama—awaits.

Oklahoma is the one team still in position to oust Kansas State from the Fiesta spot, and as our BCS bowl race projections on Monday noted, the Sooners likely control their own destiny to an at-large spot. But the task ahead of them on Saturday is not easy. They pay a visit to TCU (Noon ET, ESPN) in a game with everything at stake.

If it’s possible for a team that’s lost three of five to be on a roll, TCU is that team. Over the past three games, they’ve beaten West Virginia, played well at Kansas State in a loss and then knocked off Texas on Thanksgiving night, a game that ended any hopes that the Longhorn visit to K-State would be a true championship bout.

TCU’s defense has started to show signs of growing back into the type of unit Gary Patterson had the past two years. And the suspension of quarterback Casey Pachall and replacing him with freshman Trevone Boykin has been a blessing in disguise. Boykin’s playing well, and while Pachall was productive, you can’t help but note that the team overall is playing better since the freshman took over.

OTHER COLLEGE FOOTBALL ACTION
SEC CHAMPIONSHIP FEAST & ACC DESSERT
BATTLE FOR THE ROSE BOWL: PAC-12 FRIDAY & BIG TEN SATURDAY

Oklahoma has had a year that by anyone’s standards but their own would be a phenomenal success. The only losses are to Kansas State and Notre Dame, and they’ve rang up big numbers offensively, including the last two weeks against West Virginia and Oklahoma State, both narrow escapes by counts of 50-49 and 51-48. But they are not going to win in Fort Worth if Landry Jones has to throw 61 times, the number he’s averaged in these two games. They are not going to win in Fort Worth if the defense is a sieve. And they certainly are not going to win in Fort Worth if Damien Williams rushes anywhere the 11 total yards he had against Oklahoma State—something that’s more the fault of the coaches, who let Jones put up 71 passes and only gave Williams seven carries.

If indeed, OU doesn’t win in Fort Worth, then Kansas State will know its Fiesta Bowl spot is locked up, since the two teams lead the field by two games. But an Oklahoma loss heightens the drama for Texas, because it opens up the BCS at-large spot. The Longhorns are ranked 18th, and while they need to rise four spots to become eligible, a win in Manhattan would surely do that. Then it would just be a question of hoping a MAC team doesn’t become an automatic qualifier (more on that below) and hoping the Sugar Bowl bid preferred 9-3 Texas over a 9-3 Oklahoma or a 10-2 Clemson. All of that is reasonable to hope for, and if nothing else Texas would need to hold off a victorious TCU and potentially a victorious Oklahoma State to ensure the Cotton Bowl bid.

So can Texas do it? Yes, they can. They have the talent to win on the road against a very good team like Kansas State. But you never know what you’ll get out of this Longhorn team. Just when they seemed to be coming on, with wins over Texas Tech and Iowa State, and good play by the defense, they go in the tank against TCU. Now starting quarterback David Ash is questionable with injured ribs—at the very least, Ash isn’t going to start and his emergence over Case McCoy at this spot was the biggest bright spot in the UT season.

But Kansas State has problems of its own. Running back John Hubert has all but disappeared from the offense. He hasn’t rushed for 100 yards since early October against Kansas, and he’s been under 50 each of his last three games. How healthy is Collin Klein? I know the reports say all is well, but ever since he was first banged up, the Wildcat offense hasn’t been the same. If the two weeks he’s had to heal have worked, all is indeed well. If not…Kansas State could be plummeting out of the BCS by night’s end.

If the national championship race has no more room for chaos, the Big 12 can fill the bill. I’m taking outright upsets on both counts here, with TCU and Texas winning.

MID-MAJOR CHAMPIONSHIP ACTION

Three mid-major conferences have championship battles going down. The MAC and Conference USA have formal title games scheduled, while the Sun Belt has seen its race boil down to one final head-to-head game in the last week of the regular season. Here’s a brief rundown on all three…

MAC: Kent State-Northern Illinois (Friday, 7 PM ET, ESPN2): Believe it or not, this one has BCS implications, as we hinted at further up. Kent State is #17, while Northern Illinois is #21. If the winner of this game gets to the Top 16 (and you have to assume Kent would), they become an automatic qualifier, if they rank ahead of at least one BCS conference champ. It would take something dramatic for the Big East champ (the Louisville-Rutgers winner on Thursday) to pass them, particularly given that Kent beat Rutgers decisively.

But NIU making it to the Top 16 is not as certain, and it’s the Huskies who are a 6 ½ point favorite, and have a breathtaking quarterback in Jordan Lynch. The junior signal-caller has completed 64 percent of his passes, averaged better than eight yards per attempt, has a 23/4 TD-INT ratio and oh-by-the-way has rushed for over 1,300 yards. Yeah, I’d say he’s pretty good. And his defense has held four MAC opponents in single digits and only given up 30-plus one time, something that’s an achievement in a league that often resembles flag football.

Kent’s pretty good themselves though and I am surprised they are this substantial of an underdog on a neutral site (the game is at Detroit’s Ford Field). The Golden Flashes run the ball very well, and even with Dri Archer questionable with an ankle injury, Trayion Durham can pick up the slack. Spencer Keith isn’t a spectacular quarterback like Lynch, nor can he run, but he is efficient. The team also plays good defense.

When it comes to the point spread, I have no hesitation about grabbing Kent and the points. The outright winner is a tougher call. NIU has an extraordinary quarterback and has been a little bit better defensively. They’re also battle-tested, in their third straight MAC Championship Game (winning last year, losing in 2010), while Kent is making their first appearance. And on top of all that, I personally just like this team. So why not pick them? Well, I did pick Kent at the start of the season, and other than going undefeated through the league and beating Rutgers, what exactly have they done to lose my respect? For that reason I’ll stick with Kent one last time in an upset that could unbelievably put them in the Orange Bowl.

Conference USA: Central Florida-Tulsa (Saturday, Noon ET, ESPN): UCF was assumed to be on probation all year until just last week when they were made eligible and their hearing deferred to next year when they’ll be in the Big East. They have what I think is a better team than Tulsa, thanks to better quarterback play from Blake Bortles. Both teams run the ball well and the Golden Hurricane holds homefield advantage thanks to a 23-21 win over UCF on this field two weeks ago.

But that was when we thought UCF had nothing to play for. I see the Knights as a team that played competitively at Ohio State, competitively against Missouri and churned through C-USA, with only that game at Tulsa being a loss. They take revenge here and pick up a Liberty Bowl bid.

Sun Belt: Middle Tennessee-Arkansas State (3 PM ET): No TV coverage for this one, not even something like an ESPNU. Normally I’d throw a fit, but honestly Arkansas State looks like the vastly better team even though they are tied in the standings. Arkansas State’s only losses were at Oregon, at Nebraska and a competitive game to Western Kentucky.

The Red Wolves have won six straight by an average of better than two touchdowns a pop. And they’ve padded that average against the quality teams on their schedule, winning programs like UL-Lafayette and UL-Monroe. Middle Tennessee has done a nice job, and won four straight, but the Blue Raiders’ games have been close. They’re a 10-point underdog on the road. I’d definitely take Arkansas State to win and would even consider laying the points.

College Football Week 7 Recap: Big 12 Shakeup

, , , , ,

From the championship race to the push for individual honors, the Big 12 got a little bit of a shakeup  on Saturday. Texas is out, Oklahoma is on the rise, Geno Smith’s Heisman stock dipped and other potential contenders stepped forward. The one major conference that puts it all on its regular season—no divisional split and league championship game—leads up our discussion of the events from college football week 7.

The Red River Rivalry turned into an Oklahoma Massacre. The Sooners ran all over a young Texas defense that’s getting worse rather than better as the season progresses. OU rushed for 343 yards with Damien Williams having a big day. They built a 36-2 lead by halftime and coasted in to a 63-21 romp, a result that should have Texas coach Mack Brown embarrassed, and BCS voters giving the one-loss Sooners a second look as they prepare for a stretch drive that includes games against Notre Dame, West Virginia and Oklahoma State.

Although that coming game with West Virginia might not be as a big deal as it seemed. The Mountaineers were not just beaten by Texas Tech, they were mauled, 49-14. Geno Smith didn’t make any mistakes, but he was kept under control by a defense that’s been troubled. Smith was 29/55, a mediocre completion percentage and the 275 yards was nothing special.

Meanwhile, counterpart Seth Doege lit up, throwing for 508 yards and for those of us that have followed him all year long, it’s worth asking whether the Texas Tech quarterback should be considered as a challenger to Smith for Big 12 Player of the Year and ultimately the Heisman.

Oklahoma, West Virginia and Texas Tech might be taking turns at lighting up the scoreboard and be in contention for the conference title with one loss apiece. But Kansas State just grinds out wins by playing sound football and remained undefeated with a 27-21 win over Iowa State. The Cyclones were shut down on the ground, K-State got its usual two-threat work from Colin Klein and John Hubert ran for 79 yards. The Wildcats have become the “all they do is win” team of 2012.

Here’s a look at the rest of the country, on a conference-by-conference basis…

Big Ten: Wisconsin finally looked liked the Badger team we got used to over the past few years. They pounded Purdue on the ground, with Monte Ball rushing for 247 yards and James White going for 124, as UW got a 38-14 road win that will make it very tough for them not to win the Leaders Division.

It remains to be seen if Ohio State and Penn State can have bragging rights—the Nittany Lions had a bye week on Saturday while the Buckeyes played a defenseless game against Indiana and won 52-49—but no Wisconsin’s got firm control among the four teams eligible for the conference championship game.

SEC: LSU got a win they had to have over South Carolina. Alabama hammered Missouri, a circumstance made easier by the Tigers playing without starting quarterback James Franklin. But is Mississippi State ready to make the SEC West a three-horse race?

The Bulldogs stayed undefeated in a 41-34 win over Tennessee, a game in which Mississippi State outplayed the Vols to a degree not seen in the final score. The defense kept Tennessee quarterback Tyler Bray under firm control and without a special teams touchdown, the Vols wouldn’t be in the game. Mississippi State is now in the discussion in the SEC West.

South Carolina’s loss to LSU means nothing in the SEC East race and probably won’t even matter in the national title picture, given the big games the Gamecocks have ahead of them. The concern Steve Spurrier would have is that the poor run defense his team played is exploited next week against Florida, the biggest game of the college football season to date.

The belief at TheSportsNotebook is that because the rush defense problem was an anomaly that it’s likely attributed to the team being sandwiched between Georgia and Florida and little low on emotion. I’m sure the ‘Ol Ball Coach will sleep better now.

ACC: Duke gave its fans a tease when they jumped on Virginia Tech for a 20-0 first quarter lead in Blacksburg. But the Hokies gave the Blue Devils a lesson about winning big games and how it needs to start with the running the ball. Duke only got 22 rush yards and eventually committed four turnovers. Virginia Tech pounded the ball on the ground, with J.C. Coleman going off for 183 yards. Tech turned it around for a 41-20 win that kept them in the heart of the Coastal Division race.

North Carolina continues to look like the Coastal’s best team, even as they are ineligible due to probation (maybe they need to play the winner of Penn State-Ohio State in some type of Probation Bowl). Giovanni Bernard continues to control games on the ground, looking like a legit ACC Player of the Year candidate and leading the way in a 18-14 win over Miami.

Pac-12: Oregon State sent a loud and clear message that the loss of sophomore quarterback Sean Mannion isn’t going to slow them down. The Beavers won a big non-conference game over BYU behind 332 passing yards from Cody Vaz, their defense picked off Riley Nelson three times and Oregon State pulled away in the fourth quarter for a 42-24 win. Oregon State is still unbeaten at 5-0 and angling to emerge as the main challenger to Oregon for North Division supremacy.

The other contender in the North is Stanford and they played one of the day’s signature games at Notre Dame, losing a controversial 20-13 overtime decision when Stephan Taylor was ruled short of the goal line on fourth down over his protests. Stanford, as they showed against the physical Irish, can play with anyone in the trenches, but mediocre work in the passing game continues to hamper them.

Big East: The Rutgers-Syracuse game provided a clear test about what makes championship teams and what makes disappointments. The Orange moved the ball, threw it over the field and piled up yardage..and also committed four turnovers. Rutgers didn’t dazzle anyone, but they ran and took care of the ball, and consequently won 23-15. It was a Tale of Two Teams and the contrast this game provided will undoubtedly provide fodder for a future Charles Dickens novel. If he were alive anyway.

The Best Of The Rest: Boise State’s 20-10 win over Fresno State was more impressive than the score makes it sound. Boise contained a good running back in Robbie Rouse, holding him to three yards a carry and prevented quarterback Derek Carr from getting the ball to his receivers. Boise ran the ball very well behind D.J. Harper and Jay Ajayi, who combined for 213 yards and had leads of 17-0 early and 20-3 in the fourth quarter.

If anyone’s going to catch Boise in the Mountain West then, the task would have to fall to someone like Nevada or Air Force, but both needed to rally for wins against bad teams. Nevada came back and beat UNLV in spite of not defending the Rebel ground game very well. Air Force had to rally late against hapless Wyoming.

When you look at how both Air Force and Nevada struggled, the natural conclusion is that Fresno is the second-best team in the Mountain West and that Boise beat back its toughest challenger with room to spare.