TheSportsNotebook’s college football coverage will have our BCS bowl projections after each week throughout the regular season. I prefer this methodology of tracking the top teams over and above rankings, because the latter tells us nothing about the matchups we’ll actually be watching in December and January.
There are, as you might expect, minimal changes in these projections, from what I had to start the season. The one change comes in the at-large area.
There are four bids to teams that come from outside the realm of the six automatic qualifying conferences. I see Alabama, Oregon and Notre Dame as locks for three of the spots (even if you don’t buy my theory of South Carolina knocking off ‘Bama just pencil SEC #2 in for one of the spots. No conference can get a third team into the BCS).
I saw a close race between Wisconsin, Florida State and Oklahoma for the final spot, and I took Wisconsin for the analytically sound reason that I’m a Badger fan, and with the differences looking slight, I may as well be a homer.
Wisconsin did nothing wrong in Week 1—their 45-0 win over UMass was as impressive as a win over such an opponent can be—but Florida State did a lot right. The way the Seminoles took apart Pitt, I had to move them into that fourth spot. Oklahoma was none too shabby themselves, shutting out Sun Belt favorite UL-Monroe and it’s prolific quarterback Kolton Browning.
BCS AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS SEC: South Carolina Big 12: Texas Pac-12: Stanford Big Ten: Ohio State ACC: Clemson American Athletic (former Big East): Louisville At-Larges: Alabama, Notre Dame, Oregon, Florida State
BCS NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME: South Carolina-Alabama Sugar: Notre Dame-Florida State Orange: Clemson-Oregon Fiesta: Texas-Louisville Rose: Ohio State-Stanford
TheSportsNotebook has been on a boot camp run of college football coverage, having previewed all ten conferences and the major independents. With the season set to start on Thursday night, it’s time to summarize it all and make closing arguments.
Below are the links to the previews for each conference, with TheSportsNotebook’s pick to win each league noted. We’ll then move on to predicting how the BCS landscape will shake out.
Six of the conference champions are automatic qualifiers to the BCS—the SEC, Big 12, Pac-12, Big Ten, ACC and American Athletic, the league formerly known as the Big East.
There are then four-at large spots for the BCS bowl games. The choices for those spots start with Alabama, Notre Dame and Oregon, whom I see as absolute locks. The fourth spot is a little more open, and will come down to a race between Oklahoma, Wisconsin and Florida State.
Note that this is also a berth that could be grabbed by one the latter four non-automatic conferences, if they qualify. But I’m leaning Wisconsin for the final nod. In part because I think they’re going to close the season strong with eight straight wins to finish 10-2. And in part because I’m a Badger fan, fired up to go to Camp Randall for Saturday’s season opener, and if it’s close, I’m picking them.
FINAL BCS BOWL PREDICTIONS
A previous post noted a possibility where Alabama goes 12-0 and loses the SEC Championship Game, yet still finishes in the top two in the BCS rankings. I’m predicting that comes to pass.
There is no logic to having Alabama-South Carolina play for the conference title on December 7 in Atlanta and then rematch on January 6 in Pasadena for the national championship. But the fact something is illogical won’t stop it from happening.
That prediction can either be seen as a cop-out, or going to the other extreme and trying to be too precise. Lest I be vulnerable to such accusations, let me make clear that I consider Stanford the best team on the non-SEC side of the bracket, with Ohio State second and Notre Dame third. I’d give Texas a very outside shot at making it to Pasadena.
The rest of the bowls are slotted with the Big Ten and Pac-12 champs meeting in the Rose, the ACC going to the Orange, the SEC going Sugar and the Big 12 going to the Fiesta. The “draft order” for filling out the matchups is Orange-Sugar-Fiesta, although that is superseded by the right of bowls to take a “replacement team” if they lose their natural conference champ to the BCS title game.
That means the Sugar, who would lose South Carolina, would pick first, and then the draft order kicks in. Here’s how I would project those matchups shaking out…
BCS NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP: South Carolina-Alabama Rose: Ohio State-Stanford Orange: Clemson-Wisconsin Sugar: Notre Dame-Oregon Fiesta: Texas-Louisville
And to win the whole thing? I’ll take Alabama. Under my scenario, beating the Tide—or any good team for that matter—twice in a month is too challenging. This would give Alabama three straight national championships and two of them done the cheap way, including their ridiculous rematch opportunity against LSU after the 2011 season. I should note I’m also picking Alabama because they might just go 14-0 and leave no doubt about it either.
The BCS bowl picture seems to have fallen into place, and not just at the top level, where wins by Notre Dame and Georgia sealed off any of the chaos prospects we talked about in this space last week. Not only the teams, but the matchups themselves look pretty clean and straightforward, as Oklahoma likely played its way into the final at-large spot when they beat Oklahoma State and Clemson fell at home to South Carolina.
To say Oklahoma was forced into a wide-open passing display against their in-state rival would be to grossly understate the case. Landry Jones threw 71 passes in a game the Sooners trailed most of the way, before finally winning in overtime. Jones piled up 500 yards in the air and in the end this is exactly the kind of game he’s suited for. The OU quarterback can win a shootout that comes down to piling up Fantasy numbers. He’s been less adept at making plays in tough, physical games like Kansas State and Notre Dame, the two teams that came into Norman and won this year. Perhaps that’s damning the Sooner signal-caller with faint praise, but Jones is who he is, for better or for worse. He’s a machine with the numbers and he ended up in a game where that was exactly what was required.
Still, Oklahoma was probably on the outside looking in when their game ended and Clemson-South Carolina started up in prime-time. The Tigers had their sights on the final at-large bid and a win to get them to 11-1 would have all but sealed it. But Clemson could not stop South Carolina through the air, as Dylan Thompson threw for 306 yards and the Gamecocks picked up a 27-17 road win.
The South Carolina victory was part of a clean four-game sweep of the SEC over the ACC in their traditional Thanksgiving Saturday intersectional rivalries and the way the games were won should eliminate any doubt about whether the acknowledged gap between these two leagues should just be applied across the board, regardless of matchup.
Florida State was the one ACC team presumed to be able to compete with SEC teams and they lost at home to Florida 37-26 because the Gators simply whipped them up front. Mike Gillislee ran for 140 yards, the team overall ran for 244 and FSU could generate nothing on the ground offensively. Forced to the air, Seminole quarterback E.J. Manuel threw three interceptions. This game goes on top of last year’s FSU home loss to Oklahoma as clear demonstration that being the best in the ACC means nothing against top teams from the true power leagues.
Georgia and Vanderbilt’s wins weren’t surprising, nor even that they came decisively, but even given that, the scope of the Bulldogs and Commodores’ blowouts of Georgia Tech and Wake Forest were eye-catching. The Dawgs did everything right in a 42-10 win that clearly could have been worse. And Vandy coasted past a Wake Forest team 55-21 in spite of the fact the Demon Deacons were playing for bowl eligibility while the Commodores were playing for nothing.
Furthermore, both South Carolina and Florida won their games in spite of committing 12 penalties apiece. Here we have teams playing on the road against reputable ACC competition, shooting themselves in the foot and still winning by double-digit margins. The ACC, along with the Big Ten and Big East just needs to take a break from considering itself into the national title discussion. I’m no fan of the SEC, and I think the league often gets overrated. But that’s in comparison to the Pac-12 & Big 12. These three conferences in effect combine to form a superleague that rules over college football right now.
Florida’s win ended any intrigue over who the second SEC team would be in one of the major bowl slots. The Gators are ranked 4th and that means automatic qualification and I can think of no reason why they should slip next week, given Oregon is #5 and also done for the regular season. This mean Texas A&M is out of luck for a BCS bowl in spite of its win over Alabama, potentially having the Heisman winner in Johnny Manziel and being kind of a trendy team in public opinion right now. As well as a scorching hot one on the field.
Oregon isn’t guaranteed an at-large bid per se, but they’ll surely get one after ending the season by blasting Oregon State and getting to 11-1. Notre Dame also falls into the at-large category and that leaves just one spot left. With the SEC & Pac-12 having their at-large quota filled (the BCS can only take one at-large team per conference) and Notre Dame off the board, that leaves the Big 12 and right now that means Oklahoma.
There’s still some possibility for chaos. Oklahoma plays TCU, a team that just knocked off Texas on Thanksgiving night because their run defense whipped the Longhorns up front. If TCU pulls another upset, we can have another round of debate about whether OU or Clemson gets the final spot. And we can’t rule Oklahoma out of winning the Big 12 outright—if Texas beats Kansas State on Saturday night, the door opens for the Sooners to claim the conference’s Fiesta Bowl bid. And a Kansas State team on a two-game losing streak would not be an attractive alternative. A big issue in this case whether Texas—currently 8-3 and ranked 18th in the BCS would rise the four spots necessary to become eligible. My guess is that the Longhorns would, and in which case be chosen for a big bowl, but if they came up short, the door again re-opens for Clemson who is sitting right on #14, the borderline of eligibility.
So on a week where we look ahead to conference championship games and the conclusion of the Big 12 & Big East regular seasons we have a little bit of clarity on the matchups…at least for the moment. Here’s the current BCS bowl projections. In games like Georgia-Alabama where it’s a “play-in” situation, I’m not taking a stand on who will win—not because I’m a weasel, but because I’ll save that for the game previews TheSportsNotebook will run later this week.
BCS NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP: Notre Dame vs. Alabama/Georgia Fiesta: Kansas State vs. Oregon Sugar: Florida vs. Oklahoma Orange: Florida State vs. Rutgers/Louisville Rose: UCLA-Stanford vs. Wisconsin/Nebraska
If you want to allow for upsets—and hey, that’s the fun of this—there’s still not much room for movement. Just pencil Big 12 #1 into the Fiesta spot opposite Oregon and realistically pencil Big 12 #2 into the Sugar Bowl against Florida, with a slight possibility for Clemson to also grab that spot. Otherwise, the matchups hold firm.
You know about the chaos that reigned on Saturday in college football, as Kansas State & Oregon fell, to the great benefit of Notre Dame, Alabama and Georgia, who now all control their destiny for the national championship. If the chalk holds for two weeks, we’ll see Notre Dame beat USC and take on the winner of the Alabama-Georgia SEC championship game. But what if the chalk doesn’t hold?
There’s still any number of scenarios out there at the top of the national championship race and exponentially more when it comes to the race for bids in BCS games. And the reality is, we’re only a couple games away from another all-SEC battle in the national title game.
Just one week ago, TheSportsNotebook tabbed Florida one of the big losers in the events of a particular Saturday. And what I wrote then was true. At the time. Because of the chaos and because they still have Florida State on the schedule, the Gators are in position to not only get back into a major bowl game, but are in the discussion for the top prize. At #4 in the current standings, they are guaranteed at-large selection. And if Notre Dame loses to Southern Cal? Then a win over the Seminoles sets up Florida to play the Alabama-Georgia winner in Miami come January 7.
The one factor that could stop this scenario would be voter rebellion against another all-SEC title game, in which case Oregon, sitting at #5, could move their way back in. But the possibilities for Florida are just one example of national championship possibilities that are very much in play, but not being discussed, as everyone in the media rushes to get read for the Notre Dame-Alabama/Georgia final showdown (and that’s being generous—most media reports I see are giving Georgia short shrift in their chances against ‘Bama).
Let’s walk through a few more scenarios that could upset the applecart…
*Don’t assume the Alabama-Georgia game is a de facto semi-final. That’s true if the current rankings hold, and Alabama’s game against Auburn doesn’t present any real threat for chaos. But Georgia has to play Georgia Tech this week. The Yellow Jackets are an improving team, having won three in a row, including games against North Carolina and Duke and could yet end up in the ACC Championship Game. Georgia gets GT at home, but it can be a competitive game under any circumstances and especially if the Dawgs are looking ahead to Alabama.
*Notre Dame’s game at USC isn’t slipping under anyone’s radar, but what if the following happens—the Irish lose at USC. The Dawgs lose to Georgia Tech, then turn around and beat Alabama. Now you have a glorious mess and everyone is back into it. Here are a few more things to look at…
*Oregon is sitting on #5 and needs help just to get into the Pac-12 Championship Game. If Stanford wins at home against UCLA they take the North Division, and there would be a Cardinal-Bruin rematch for the Rose Bowl one week later. Would Oregon be better off just knocking off Oregon State (9-2 and 15th in the BCS rankings), staying home and hoping for a crackup? The hard answer is that yes, they probably are. The style points from any Pac-12 title game win probably don’t matter, for better or worse. And even if they didn’t get the Rose Bowl bid, Oregon would be snapped up as a BCS at-large if they fall short of the top game.
*Florida State really hasn’t gotten any respect, sitting at #10. Given the weakness of the ACC, that’s probably fair enough, but what if they beat Florida on Saturday? The teams between the Seminoles and Gators in the national rankings are Oregon, Kansas State, Texas A&M, Stanford and LSU. Should Florida State beat Florida, then win the ACC Championship Game a week a later, why shouldn’t they make the national game under the same scenario I outlined for Florida above? At the very least, the ‘Noles should get in if total chaos opens up both spots.
*Looking around conference races, Rutgers got a big win over Cincinnati and looks set up to play Louisville in a winner-take-all game for the Big East next Thursday night. The winner likely goes to the Orange Bowl. We know Florida State will play for the ACC’s automatic spot in that game. Miami gets the other spot if they beat Duke on Saturday. Should the Blue Devils win the nod goes to Georgia Tech. And in the Big Ten, Nebraska just needs to beat Iowa or hope Michigan loses on the road at undefeated Ohio State and the Cornhuskers can book their trip for the Big Ten title game against Wisconsin.
*The Big 12 is a story unto itself and TheSportsNotebook will explore this conference’s complete bowl implications from the top down later this week. For now, let’s just say that while Kansas State can still keep it simple with a win over Texas, the Wildcats’ loss opens the door for Oklahoma, Texas & Oklahoma State. It’s going to be a great closing weekend in what has been the nation’s best conference this year.
*Now let’s get on with the BCS bowl projections. I’m going to break them into four different sets of matchups this time. In the first, we’ll just assume form holds and it’s Notre Dame vs. Alabama/Georgia. The loser of the SEC title game will likely be passed over for an at-large slot regardless. Then we’ll do a projection that has Notre Dame losing to USC. We’ll do a set that presumes the parlay of Georgia losing to Georgia Tech, then beating Alabama. And then we’ll do the Glorious Chaos projection, where both Notre Dame and the SEC leaders crack up.
For the sake of at least a little simplicity I’m going to assume its Kansas State in the Big 12, Stanford/UCLA out of the Pac-12. I’m also assuming Florida holds serve at homeand beats Florida State (late correction–the game is at Florida State). And the way the matchups likely shake out it seems that Clemson and Oklahoma are vying for the same spot in the Sugar Bowl. Clemson currently has the edge, but has to play South Carolina. If they lose, it opens the door for OU to beat Oklahoma State. And if both lose? Please, we’ve had enough chaos for one article.
THE CHALK BCS NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP: Notre Dame-Alabama/Georgia Sugar: Florida-Clemson/Oklahoma Fiesta: Kansas State-Oregon Orange: Florida State-Rutgers Rose: UCLA/Stanford vs. Wisconsin/Nebraska
NOTRE DAME LOSES BCS NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP: Alabama/Georgia vs. Florida Sugar: Notre Dame-Clemson Fiesta: Kansas State-Oregon
Orange: Florida State-Rutgers
Rose: UCLA/Stanford vs. Wisconsin/Nebraska
GEORGIA LOSES TO GEORGIA TECH, THEN BEATS ALABAMA BCS NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP: Notre Dame-Florida Sugar: Georgia-Clemson/Oklahoma Fiesta: Kansas State-Oregon Orange: Florida State-Rutgers Rose: UCLA/Stanford vs. Wisconsin/Nebraska
GLORIOUS CHAOS BCS NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP: Florida-Oregon (note that neither team would be a conference champ) Sugar: Georgia-Clemson/Oklahoma Fiesta: Kansas State-Notre Dame Orange: Florida State-Rutgers Rose: UCLA/Stanford vs. Wisconsin/Nebraska
Alabama was the big loser on Saturday in their 29-24 loss to Texas A&M, falling from the #1 spot in the BCS standings down to #4 and putting themselves in need of substantial help to get back into the national championship picture. But there were other losers to. Let’s run through teams and conferences that are up against it, as we begin another round of BCS bowl projections.
*Florida’s narrow escape against UL-Lafayette—the Gators needed a blocked punt return on the final play of regulation to win 27-20—may have kept them alive for a major bowl game, but it put a crimp in their chances.
Coming into Saturday, Florida was in position to get into the top four nationally, which would have made them an automatic qualifier for a BCS at-large. They’re still sitting on sixth, but the Gators are behind both Alabama and Georgia—one of whom is guaranteed to win in the SEC Championship Game. Florida also lost considerable marquee appeal—the reality is they haven’t played a good game since they blew out South Carolina.
The end result is that the bowls are likely to have a choice as far as which SEC runner-up they want to pick. Florida will certainly be in that discussion. But they are now less attractive than Texas A&M, which has the marquee scalp of the season and the latest trendy quarterback in Johnny Manziel. I know we’re looking at a scenario where the Gators would be 11-1, the Aggies 10-2 and Florida beaten A&M head-to-head in College Station. But if you’re the Fiesta Bowl, who looks like a more marquee choice to you right now?
And if the SEC champ plays its way back into the title game and the Sugar gets to make a pick, doesn’t either A&M or LSU make more sense given geographic proximity? Florida needs help, and more importantly, they need to start playing better football before their finale against Florida State.
*The SEC in general is again being hurt by the ridiculous limitation of the number of at-large teams that can come from a single conference (A league can only send one additional team after its champion). I was as harsh as anyone on the idea that the league needed get both spots in the BCS National Championship Game last year. I’m all for the notion that all major conference champions should get a chance on the big stage, and I’m for making it easier to get midmajor conference champs into the BCS.
But when it comes to runner-ups, do we really need a rule that ensures the Big Ten actually has a chance at an at-large spot? It’s frightening and horrific thought, and before you slash your wrists, it’s not likely. But Michigan is #21 and if they win out—which would include a road win at Ohio State—they could move up to #14 and become eligible. The SEC has the following teams in consideration for an at-large—the Alabama/Georgia loser, Texas A&M, Florida, South Carolina and LSU, all in the Top 10 of the BCS. With four at-large spots available, give one to Notre Dame, maybe one to Oklahoma or Clemson and let the SEC have at least two—in fact, give them three if South Carolina beats Clemson in a couple weeks.
*Which brings me to another loser and that’s Louisiana Tech. The WAC leader is the best hope for a midmajor crasher of the BCS, but they barely survived Texas State, 62-55. The Bulldogs held at 20th in the rankings, but they still need to move up four spots to qualify. And even at that they would need to pass a BCS conference champ in the rankings (La Tech is only an absolute automatic if they get to the top 12, which won’t happen). And when Nebraska survived a stiff challenge to Penn State and moved up to #14 in the process it removed the best chance for Louisiana Tech to pass a conference favorite. There’s still hope—Tech is ranked ahead of Wisconsin, who might pull an upset in the Big Ten title game. Tech is ranked ahead of everyone in the ACC’s Coastal Division, whose champ could upset Florida State in the ACC championship battle. But Tech’s chances of getting to the BCS without an upset realistically ended on Saturday.
*The Pac-12 knows now the only they can get an at-large bid is if they blow their national title hopes. When Oregon State lost to Stanford, it means that if Oregon wins out, all league runner-ups will have three losses. Oregon State still has two defeats, as does UCLA who leads the Pac-12 South. But the only way the Pac-12 can get two bids is if Oregon loses to one of them. A three-loss Pac-12 team likely isn’t even eligible, and even if they are, it wouldn’t compare to the prospect of bringing in undefeated Notre Dame as a replacement choice for Oregon.
*Louisville wasn’t going to play for the national title even if they were undefeated, but critics of the system would surely have loved to seen an unbeaten Cardinal team frozen out. It won’t happen now. Louisville’s ground game was non-existent in a 45-26 loss at Syracuse and they fell into a three-way tie with Cincinnati and Rutgers for the Big East lead. Louisville’s already beaten the Bearcats, so this league likely still comes down to Louisville-Rutgers on the final Thursday night, November 29.
Before we go into the final BCS bowl projections, a closing word on Alabama. Don’t write off the Tide just yet. Oregon has a gauntlet of three games to run, with Stanford, Oregon State and the Pac-12 title game (UCLA-USC winner). Kansas State has to play Texas on December 1. The game will be in Manhattan, but the Longhorns have talent, they can score points and with an 8-2 record, they could be in position to play their way into a BCS game themselves if they get help and Oklahoma loses. And Notre Dame has the season finale against USC. The Trojans look less imposing with each passing week, but the Irish don’t blow out Pitt or Boston College, so we should still expect a war in the Coliseum. Is it all that unthinkable that two of the three unbeatens lose and the SEC champ ends up back in?
The bigger question that has to concern Nick Saban is how good his team really is. I’ve been talking here at TheSportsNotebook how Alabama really hasn’t played anyone. But while I never thought they were head-and-shoulders above the competition, I also can’t say I thought the pass defense would be this bad. Both LSU and Texas A&M have exposed the Tide secondary and Georgia’s Aaron Murray is more than capable of doing the same.
I’m still giving ‘Bama the benefit of the doubt and picking them to win the SEC because I think Saban will have his team motivated for a prove-it-to-the-nation kind of performance, even if they can’t win the national title. But Dawgs-Tide looks a lot better right now than it did a couple weeks ago.
BCS NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME: Oregon-Kansas State Rose: Nebraska-Notre Dame Fiesta: Oklahoma-Texas A&M Sugar: Alabama-Clemson Orange: Florida State-Rutgers
Selection Note: I am presuming Oregon will end up #1, as BCS experts say winning those last three games will push them past Kansas State. This would give the Rose the first selection and the opportunity to get Notre Dame. The Fiesta would then pick to replace Kansas State, and then the selection order for this season also puts that bowl first in line, so under this scenario, the Fiesta makes two straight picks.
We’ve got four weeks of college football under our belts, and conference play is going to increase dramatically starting on Saturday, so right now is as good a time as any to revisit and revise the preseason expectations for each conference and make another—likely futile—shot at projecting out the major bowl matchups and the teams who will play for the national title.
The first thing TheSportsNotebook has to do is fundamentally revise its view of the college football landscape. I started the season approaching this as though they were five major conferences, a middle class representing the Big East, Mountain West and major independents. Then the lower class seemed to fit into two tiers, with Conference USA & the WAC being the upper tier and the MAC and Sun Belt being the lower. But the failure of the Big Ten is the most important of developments that require some tweaks.
Any model of college football predictions might as well take the SEC, Big 12 & Pac-12 and separate them as the elite of the sport. I know teams like Florida State and Notre Dame are in the hunt, but realistically, these three leagues are most likely to produce the championship-game participants. The second level of conferences would then be the Big Ten, ACC & Big East, along with Notre Dame. You can fill in the rest of the major bowl lineup from this group.
The one possible exception to this is Boise State, who beat BYU last Thursday night and is the Mountain West frontrunner. But the league top-to-bottom has not sustained the loss of TCU, and is no longer on a par with the Big East. The MWC is back to being the lead conference among a group of midmajors, but we can no longer put them on an entirely different level from the WAC, MAC & Sun Belt. We might also add the Sun Belt—led by UL-Monroe and Western Kentucky—is playing some pretty good football and can’t be relegated to the dregs of the FBS world.
All of that is the long explanation for saying we’ll break college football into three tiers: The Big 12/SEC/Pac-12 as the frontrunners, the Big Ten/ACC/Big East/Notre Dame as the rest of the BCS, and the quartet of Mountain West/Sun Belt/MAC/WAC being the lower tier. Here’s the rundown on how TheSportsNotebook sees these conference races shaking out over the next two-plus months…
SEC: At the start of the season I wasn’t sold on Alabama & LSU as title contenders again, and saw the SEC East race as a tight South Carolina/Georgia/Tennessee battle. I’m still not sold on LSU, and we can substitute Florida for Tennessee in that East race. But at day’s end I see little reason to change my earlier prediction of a South Carolina-Alabama battle for the SEC championship. And I’m sticking with the Gamecocks to win it.
While I’d rank Alabama higher right now based on performance to date, I still think we have to consider that their wins over Michigan, and certainly Arkansas, have to be held with a little more skepticism than we might have thought in August. I’m not trying to stubborn, but I don’t want to jump on the bandwagon that’s already gift-wrapped the Tide the national title. They will win the SEC West, make a major bowl and have a legitimate shot at something more. Can we just stay restrained a little longer?
Pac-12: To show I’m not stubborn, I’ll admit to being completely wrong about Oregon and Stanford. I thought each program would slip and open the door of the North to a darkhorse, which I pegged as Cal. Wrong across the board. Oregon and Stanford are for real as league title contenders and national championship possibilities, and Oregon State is the best of the challengers. I was on the USC national title bandwagon at the start of the year, and while the loss to Stanford obviously forces re-thinking, I think we should consider the Trojans have played their toughest road game, haven’t gotten Matt Barkley really into gear and are still certainly in control of their destiny in the Pac-12 South and could get a national title shot if everything fell right. Pencil them into the league title game at 11-1 and then it’s about matchups. USC matches up well with Oregon, where it’s a speed game, less so against Stanford where it’s about punching someone in the mouth. With Oregon hosting Stanford, the Ducks deserve the favorite’s role, so I’m sticking with the Trojans to win this conference.
Big 12: Oklahoma was a heavy favorite to win the Big 12, including here, and a stumble is not unexpected, the fact it came at home is disconcerting, certainly to their national title hopes. Kansas State’s win makes it clear that everything is up for grabs—not just the championship, but the second-place spot, which may produce an at-large bid to the BCS. I’ll stay with Oklahoma to win it—albeit not enthusiastically—because I think Kansas State will lose a couple times—and I like what I’m seeing out of Texas right now. Oklahoma State, West Virginia and TCU all need to be in any conversation that includes second place.
Conference Champs: South Carolina, USC, Oklahoma BCS At-Large Bids: Alabama, Stanford, Texas (Note: I am taking Stanford, because bowls have shown a tendency to like division runner-ups who aren’t coming off a conference championship game loss, hence moving the Cardinal ahead of Oregon).
Big Ten: The preseason pick here was Michigan State coming out of a strong Legends Division that included Michigan and Nebraska, along with a decent Northwestern team. Then Wisconsin would come out of a terrible Leaders Division, watered down by the probations in Columbus and Happy Valley, and only Purdue, Illinois and Indiana to beat out. No league games have been played yet, but neither projected division winner inspires confidence. As a Badger fan, I’m frustrated, but would still lean Wisconsin’s way to win this worst division in any organized sports entity.
with the way Michigan State’s offense has struggled, with the problems Michigan has had with teams like Air Force and Notre Dame (throw out Alabama since it has no relevance to how the Wolverines will play against Big Ten fare), and with Nebraska at least not having a moment where they’ve embarrassed themselves, I’ll take the Huskers. They lost close at UCLA and won three cupcake blowouts. It’s not dazzling, but the best the Big Ten has to offer in this watered down year.
ACC: Florida State has command of the Atlantic Division after their win over Clemson and with that being the stronger side of the conference, we should consider the Seminoles the clear favorite to win their first ACC crown since 2005. I liked Georgia Tech at the start of the year, but they’ve lost in overtime to rivals Virginia Tech and Miami. So we may as well project the traditional favorite Hokies to be in Charlotte.
Big East: Rutgers has easily been the most impressive team in this balanced league. They had the running game and the defense and now highly touted sophomore quarterback Gary Nova looks like he’s coming into his own. While Louisville deserves respect, and teams like South Florida, Syracuse and Pitt have shown enough to think they can recover from some September disappointments, we may as well vault the Scarlet Knights to clear front-runner status.
Independents: Notre Dame has a clear path to a major bowl game. They can lose at USC and at Oklahoma and still make it at 10-2, and given their reputation and weakness of the at-large competition, they might make it at 9-3. Let’s stay cool on the national title rhetoric—in theory the Irish have a loss to give because of their schedule. But in practice, if that loss is at USC or at Oklahoma, and ND ends up in a joust with either team, than they still lose out. And either way, this scenario presumes that an Irish team that has only proven it’s probably better than anyone in the Big Ten (a small achievement, at least when considered in national title terms)is going to split those two big road games, and not stumble in an interesting home schedule highlighted by Stanford.
The Best Of The Rest: My preseason prediction for league championships were Marshall (Conference USA), Wyoming (Mountain West), Western Kentucky (Sun Belt), Louisiana Tech (WAC) and Kent State (MAC). I’m running away screaming in terror from the Wyoming pick, easily the worst I made—and that’s saying something. Boise State looks good enough to again hold serve in the Mountain Wet and honestly they’ve got a shot at a BCS at-large at 11-1 if they get a slippage from Notre Dame and the Big Ten runner-up choices look as bad in December as they do now (or the Big 12 runner-ups beat each other up enough to disqualify themselves).
I’d certainly stick with Western Kentucky in the Sun Belt, and I’m really looking forward to their game with UL-Monroe. Did I actually just write that sentence? I desperately need to get a life. I’m going to stay with Kent State in the MAC, although you can’t not be impressed by Ohio right now. That’s another good midmajor game ahead of us.
No one in C-USA has really thrilled me, so why not stick with the preseason call of Marshall and the explosive quarterback Rakeem Cato. The WAC race is looking like a lot of fun, with both Louisiana Tech and Utah State ready to hold their roles as favorites, but San Jose State is a legit spoiler, and if nothing else the comebacks of Dennis Franchione (UT-San Antonio) and Larry Coker (Texas State) will make them a possibility for a race-altering upset.
Okay, so what does all this mean for January. It’s time to do a revised set of major bowl predictions. I’ve already identified the eligible teams, which would be the conference champs of the top six conferences, plus the four at-large teams picked. When it comes to filling in the major bowl slots, the first two picks go to the bowls who lost their league champion to the BCS National Championship Game. Then this year’s selection order goes Fiesta-Sugar-Orange. Here’s how TheSportsNotebook sees the lineup…
BCS NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME: South Carolina-USC
*The preseason pick was Oklahoma-USC, as I think the Gamecocks will have two losses. I also think there will be a push for a South Carolina-Alabama rematch in the national title game with the Tide also having two losses. But I think the fear of backlash from the non-SEC world if that happens again is too great, and as long as the SEC champ is within one game of everyone else, I think the voters would prefer the league get the benefit of the doubt for their champ. So South Carolina gets in, and USC edges out Oklahoma by virtue of the Trojans’ playing a conference championship game, while the Sooners no longer have that chance.
Rose Bowl: Notre Dame-Nebraska (the Irish take USC’s place) Sugar Bowl: Alabama-Texas(‘Bama takes South Carolina’s place) Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma-Stanford Orange Bowl: Florida State-Rutgers
That’s my story and I’m sticking it it..today, anyway.
There are four bids to teams that come from outside the realm of the six automatic qualifying conferences. I see Alabama, Oregon and Notre Dame as locks for three of the spots (even if you don’t buy my theory of South Carolina knocking off ‘Bama just pencil SEC #2 in for one of the spots. No conference can get a third team into the BCS).