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College Football Coverage: Post-Week 3 BCS Bowl Projections

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Here are TheSportsNotebook’s updated BCS bowl projections after Week 3. The only change in the lineup is the removal of Wisconsin as one of the at-larges, after their 32-30 loss to Arizona State. I hate doing it for reasons that go beyond my personal affections for the Badgers.

First off, if you didn’t see the end of the UW-ASU game, Wiscy was robbed. The ball was on the Arizona State 15-yard line, on the right hash. The Badgers had the ball, about 20 seconds left and no timeouts. Quarterback Joel Stave went to the middle of the field,  and took a knee. The purpose was to line up quick, spike the ball and kick the field goal. Stave was somewhat haphazard in his taking of a knee and there was a debate over whether the ball was fumbled, but the officials blew the play dead at 0:15.


Astonishingly, the officials never let Wisconsin snap the ball. An Arizona State defender stood over it, but the delay of game was not called, as it should have been. The officials were unable to spot the football in fifteen seconds!  The clock ran out. The officials did not bother to seriously confer—there was a group conversation, but it was so brief that they couldn’t have discussed anything more than where to get together for a drink after the game. Then they sprinted off the field.

Someone needs to be fired—not suspended, but fired. Arizona State and Wisconsin both fall in the category of teams that might be in BCS at-large contention at the end of the year, and this game could end up settling who gets a major bowl payday. To have this handled in such a haphazard way is insulting to the sport.

Incidentally, anyone wondering if maybe the fix was in, you can quell such thoughts—Wisconsin, as a 5 ½ point underdog had already covered the spread, and not enough gamblers bet the moneyline (where the issue is the straight-up win) to make it worthwhile. Don’t let these officials off by thinking they might be corrupt—that would imply some level of competence, which clearly does not exist.

So right off the bat, my instincts don’t want to demote Wisconsin because I’m still angry—even writing about it on this Monday morning gets my blood boiling.

Read TheSportsNotebook’s college football coverage discussion of the Alabama-Texas A&M game that was the showcase of Week 3

But even beyond that, my BCS at-large scenario for  UW had always presumed a loss in this spot, and again on September 28 at Ohio State. It’s the eight-game win streak against a more manageable schedule that I’m banking on.


Furthermore, no one else in the Big Ten made a credible case to take this spot behind Ohio State—while there’s no rule requiring a Big Ten team to qualify, the odds are strong in the conference’s favor. A league can only produce one at-large team and I’ve already given three of the four spots to the SEC (South Carolina), Pac-12 (Oregon) and ACC (Florida State). No one in the Big 12 impresses me, Notre Dame doesn’t look very good and I don’t see a BCS-buster on the mid-major horizons. That leaves the Big Ten.

Nebraska jumped out to a 21-3 lead on UCLA, but tanked in the second half, as the Bruins scored 38 unanswered points and won 41-21. The Cornhuskers were completely outmuscled, as UCLA’s Jordan James rushed for 105 yards and the team went over 200. If Tom Osborne were dead right now, he’d be turning over in his grave.

Northwestern has played well, at 3-0, but given their lack of marquee status, the Wildcats are going to have to be far and away the consensus #2 option in the Big Ten, and if that happens the conference might just get frozen out of the at-large status.

No one doubts Michigan’s marquee status, but Wolverines barely survived Akron, 28-24, with Devante Gardner throwing three interceptions.

So with Wisconsin’s theoretical path to the BCS still intact—and given how close the game was, you can argue that they’re even more likely to win those final eight games, and perhaps even take a run at Ohio State—why remove them from the current projections?

The answer is twofold—the first is that I like these projections to be TheSportsNotebook’s version of the national rankings. I find the latter fairly useless, valuable only as far as determining the teams in the BCS National Championship Game. Otherwise, they tell us nothing about games we’re likely to see in January due to the selection rules and conference bowl commitments. If you’re a handicapper, I get why you use them, but for a regular fan, the Top 25 is pretty much pointless.

If the projections are like the rankings, there has to be at least some consequence for a loss, unless a team’s case is airtight. I wouldn’t say that about Wisconsin. As bad as Michigan looked on Saturday, they at least have a marquee victory over Notre Dame to point to, and the Wolverines have a brand name that the BCS will find attractive in any close decision.

Maybe the Notre Dame win won’t hold up over the long haul—speaking of looking shaky, the Irish certainly did Saturday night in West Lafayette, needing three fourth quarter touchdowns to escape a Purdue team that had been blown out by Cincinnati. But for now, Michigan still has a little more than the other Big Ten contenders, so they take the final at-large spot in this week’s projections.

THE FIELD OF 10
SEC: Alabama
Pac-12: Stanford
Big 12: Oklahoma
Big Ten: Ohio State
ACC: Clemson
AAC (the old Big East): Louisville
At-Larges (4): South Carolina, Oregon, Florida State, Michigan

MATCHUPS
BCS NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP: Alabama-Stanford
Sugar: South Carolina-Florida State
Orange: Clemson-Michigan
Fiesta: Oklahoma-Louisville
Rose: Ohio State-Oregon

BCS Bowl Projections: Oklahoma Plays Its Way In

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The BCS bowl picture seems to have fallen into place, and not just at the top level, where wins by Notre Dame and Georgia sealed off any of the chaos prospects we talked about in this space last week. Not only the teams, but the matchups themselves look pretty clean and straightforward, as Oklahoma likely played its way into the final at-large spot when they beat Oklahoma State and Clemson fell at home to South Carolina.

To say Oklahoma was forced into a wide-open passing display against their in-state rival would be to grossly understate the case. Landry Jones threw 71 passes in a game the Sooners trailed most of the way, before finally winning in overtime. Jones piled up 500 yards in the air and in the end this is exactly the kind of game he’s suited for. The OU quarterback can win a shootout that comes down to piling up Fantasy numbers. He’s been less adept at making plays in tough, physical games like Kansas State and Notre Dame, the two teams that came into Norman and won this year. Perhaps that’s damning the Sooner signal-caller with faint praise, but Jones is who he is, for better or for worse. He’s a machine with the numbers and he ended up in a game where that was exactly what was required.

Still, Oklahoma was probably on the outside looking in when their game ended and Clemson-South Carolina started up in prime-time. The Tigers had their sights on the final at-large bid and a win to get them to 11-1 would have all but sealed it. But Clemson could not stop South Carolina through the air, as Dylan Thompson threw for 306 yards and the Gamecocks picked up a 27-17 road win.

The South Carolina victory was part of a clean four-game sweep of the SEC over the ACC in their traditional Thanksgiving Saturday intersectional rivalries and the way the games were won should eliminate any doubt  about whether the acknowledged gap between these two leagues should just be applied across the board, regardless of matchup.

Florida State was the one ACC team presumed to be able to compete with SEC teams and they lost at home to Florida 37-26 because the Gators simply whipped them up front. Mike Gillislee ran for 140 yards, the team overall ran for 244 and FSU could generate nothing on the ground offensively. Forced to the air, Seminole quarterback E.J. Manuel threw three interceptions. This game goes on top of last year’s FSU home loss to Oklahoma as clear demonstration that being the best in the ACC means nothing against top teams from the true power leagues.

Georgia and Vanderbilt’s wins weren’t surprising, nor even that they came decisively, but even given that, the scope of the Bulldogs and Commodores’ blowouts of Georgia Tech and Wake Forest were eye-catching. The Dawgs did everything right in a 42-10 win that clearly could have been worse. And Vandy coasted past a Wake Forest team 55-21 in spite of the fact the Demon Deacons were playing for bowl eligibility while the Commodores were playing for nothing.

Furthermore, both South Carolina and Florida won their games in spite of committing 12 penalties apiece. Here we have teams playing on the road against reputable ACC competition, shooting themselves in the foot and still winning by double-digit margins. The ACC, along with the Big Ten and Big East just needs to take a break from considering itself into the national title discussion. I’m no fan of the SEC, and I think the league often gets overrated. But that’s in comparison to the Pac-12 & Big 12. These three conferences in effect combine to form a superleague that rules over college football right now.

Florida’s win ended any intrigue over who the second SEC team would be in one of the major bowl slots. The Gators are ranked 4th and that means automatic qualification and I can think of no reason why they should slip next week, given Oregon is #5 and also done for the regular season. This mean Texas A&M is out of luck for a BCS bowl in spite of its win over Alabama, potentially having the Heisman winner in Johnny Manziel and being kind of a trendy team in public opinion right now. As well as a scorching hot one on the field.

Oregon isn’t guaranteed an at-large bid per se, but they’ll surely get one after ending the season by blasting Oregon State and getting to 11-1. Notre Dame also falls into the at-large category and that leaves just one spot left. With the SEC & Pac-12 having their at-large quota filled (the BCS can only take one at-large team per conference) and Notre Dame off the board, that leaves the Big 12 and right now that means Oklahoma.

There’s still some possibility for chaos. Oklahoma plays TCU, a team that just knocked off Texas on Thanksgiving night because their run defense whipped the Longhorns up front. If TCU pulls another upset, we can have another round of debate about whether OU or Clemson gets the final spot. And we can’t rule Oklahoma out of winning the Big 12 outright—if Texas beats Kansas State on Saturday night, the door opens for the Sooners to claim the conference’s Fiesta Bowl bid. And a Kansas State team on a two-game losing streak would not be an attractive alternative. A big issue in this case whether Texas—currently 8-3 and ranked 18th in the BCS would rise the four spots necessary to become eligible. My guess is that the Longhorns would, and in which case be chosen for a big bowl, but if they came up short, the door again re-opens for Clemson who is sitting right on #14, the borderline of eligibility.

So on a week where we look ahead to conference championship games and the conclusion of the Big 12 & Big East regular seasons we have a little bit of clarity on the matchups…at least for the moment. Here’s the current BCS bowl projections. In games like Georgia-Alabama where it’s a “play-in” situation, I’m not taking a stand on who will win—not because I’m a weasel, but because I’ll save that for the game previews TheSportsNotebook will run later this week.

BCS NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP: Notre Dame vs. Alabama/Georgia
Fiesta: Kansas State vs. Oregon
Sugar: Florida vs. Oklahoma
Orange: Florida State vs. Rutgers/Louisville
Rose: UCLA-Stanford vs. Wisconsin/Nebraska

If you want to allow for upsets—and hey, that’s the fun of this—there’s still not much room for movement. Just pencil Big 12 #1 into the Fiesta spot opposite Oregon and realistically pencil Big 12 #2 into the Sugar Bowl against Florida, with a slight possibility for Clemson to also grab that spot. Otherwise, the matchups hold firm.

BCS Bowl Projections: Does November Chaos Loom?

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The month of October is in the books for college football and the crazy season is about to begin. November has a way of throwing a monkey wrench in everyone’s BCS bowl projections. From the strain of a long season to the challenges college kids have with keeping focus as media spin swirls around them to playing high-quality opposition looking to make a name for itself, November almost never goes as planned. Still, TheSportsNotebook is undeterred in making its BCS bowl projections five weeks from the finish line.

We’ll set the stage with picks for how each conference race will shake out, along with noting which teams I think will automatically qualify for BCS selection based on a high enough national ranking. Finally I note which teams will get picked to fill out the at-large field.

The process of creating the pairings then goes thusly…

The Orange (ACC), Sugar, (SEC), Rose (Pac-12 vs. Big Ten) and Fiesta (Big 12) have spots filled automatically be conference champs. The exception, of course, is if those teams are ranked in the top two and go to the BCS National Championship Game. In that event, the bowls that “lose” teams get the first picks from the remaining field. Then the matchups are filled out with a “draft” order of Fiesta, Sugar, Orange, an order that rotates each year. The Orange is choosing last because it’s the venue that’s hosting the national championship game.

Now that the explanations are done, here’s the predictions, including some projected matchups for notable minor bowl slots.

CONFERENCE CHAMPIONS
SEC: Alabama over Georgia
Pac-12: Oregon over USC
ACC: Florida State over Miami
Big Ten: Nebraska over Wisconsin
Big 12: Kansas State
Big East: Rutgers
Automatic Qualifiers: Notre Dame, Florida
At-Larger Selections: Clemson, Oklahoma

Comments: As long as Notre Dame as in the top eight they make it automatically. If Florida gets to #4 they would also be guaranteed a slot. There’s some nuances to that, but realistically, if the Gators—currently at #7—win out, they likely ascend to the level of automatic qualifier.

The wild-card in this scenario is Boise State. Currently ranked 19th, the Broncos would have to get to the top 12 to be an automatic. That’s not likely, but there’s an escape hatch—if they reach the top 16 and finish ahead of a BCS conference champion, then automatic qualification kicks in. Boise currently ranks one spot ahead of Nebraska. I don’t think that will hold, but its possible Wisconsin could pull an upset in the Big Ten title game and pave Boise’s path. Or a possible Big East crackup could enable the Broncos to get in. Keep a close eye on this situation.

Clemson only has one loss and needs help if they’re going to win the ACC. But if they win out—a slate that includes South Carolina—the Tigers would be hard to deny at 11-1. The same goes for Oklahoma if they get to 10-2 with their only losses being Notre Dame and Kansas State. Should either Clemson or OU stumble, the Pac-12  can slip a second team into the mix.

BCS NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME: Alabama-Notre Dame
Notre Dame is the likeliest of the four unbeaten teams to make it to the finish line, and Alabama will get a heavy benefit of the doubt even if they lose Saturday night at LSU (the Tide could still slip back into the SEC Championship Game). And let’s not kid ourselves—this is the game the networks are dreaming of.

ROSE BOWL: Nebraska-Oregon
I’m not confident of Oregon’s ability to run the table, as they would likely have to beat USC twice and a road trip to Oregon State won’t be a picnic. Nebraska has the inside track in the Big Ten’s Legends Division and would be a solid favorite in the conference title game.

FIESTA BOWL: Kansas State-Clemson
Kansas State’s schedule the rest of the way is tougher than is being let on in the media. Saturday’s home date with Oklahoma State won’t be a picnic, as the Cowboys are improving and have the kind of running game that other K-State opponents don’t have. And a road trip to TCU Is the classic kind of upset spot we see every November. I love the Wildcats and Collin Klein, but I just seem them at 11-1.

SUGAR BOWL: Florida-Oklahoma
At 11-1, the Gators would be logical choice for the Sugar to pick in replacing Alabama. The Sugar always keeps its SEC tie even when they aren’t obligated to, but it would be interesting to see if they stuck to that if Notre Dame is available at 11-1 or even 12-0. New Orleans is also a good venue for the Big 12 runner-up and this game would be a rematch of the 2008 national title game.

ORANGE BOWL: Florida State-Rutgers
Unless Boise State gets in the discussion, you can book the Orange Bowl is being the champs of the ACC and Big East.

OTHER BOWL MATCHUPS

The Big Ten-SEC New Year’s Trifecta
Capital One: LSU-Michigan
Outback: Georgia-Northwestern
Gator: Texas A&M-Michigan State
Comments: Nothing like a January 1 undercard of watching undermatched Big Ten teams play good SEC teams, but that’s what television has decided the country wants. The Capital One and Outback take the teams available right after the BCS is done, in that order. The Gator Bowl only has the sixth-best SEC team, while getting the fourth choice in the Big Ten. My guess is that Michigan State leapfrogged Wisconsin in the pecking order with their overtime win in East Lansing.

Other Conference Runner-Ups
Cotton: Mississippi State-Oklahoma State
Chick-Fil-A: South Carolina-N.C. State
Alamo: USC-Texas
Comments: The Cotton Bowl is the Big 12’s runner-up game, with the Chick-Fil-A and Alamo filling that role with the ACC & Pac-12. The Alamo has great possibilities, since they pick third in the Big 12 the possibility of a rematch of the 2005 national title game—the Vince Young-Reggie Bush battle in one of the greatest college games ever played—is a tantalizing option if the Trojans don’t make the BCS.