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MLB Coverage: Reviewing The Over/Under Win Props

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The 2013 MLB regular season is in the books, and on this final Sunday night of the season, as we await the Texas-Tampa tiebreaker game on Monday, followed by the two wild-card games on Tuesday and Wednesday, let’s clean up one last loose end from the season and it’s to review each team’s win props.

Regular readers of TheSportsNotebook know that a staple of our preseason MLB coverage, along with the NFL and the NBA, is to measure each team against it’s Over/Under win prop and make a pick. Let’s look at who the big winners and losers were in the win prop sweepstakes.


I’ve broken the teams down on an arc based on how much they beat, or missed their number by. The Big Winners/Big Losers each were teams that Las Vegas missed by double digits on. Then a separate category of teams that were in the 5-9 win range, where it wasn’t a blowout, but the team was pretty clearly on a certain side of the aisle. Finally there are the teams that were tight enough to be within five either way, and two teams landed right on the number. Here’s how it shook out…

BIG WINNERS: Pittsburgh (+16.5), Boston (+14), Cleveland (+13.5), Oakland (+12.5), St. Louis (+11.5)

SOLID WINNERS: Atlanta (+8), Baltimore (+6), Kansas City (+7.5),

CLOSE WINNERS: Tampa Bay (+4.5), Detroit (+0.5), Texas (+4.5), San Diego (+2.5), Colorado (+3.5)

PUSH: NY Mets, LA Dodgers

CLOSE LOSERS: Minnesota (-2.5), Miami (-1.5), NY Yanks (-1), Cincinnati (-1), Arizona (-1)

DECISIVE LOSERS: Houston (-8), ChiCubs (-7.5),  Seattle (-7), Washington (-6.5), Milwaukee (-6.5)

BIG LOSERS: ChiSox (-17.5), Toronto (-15), LA Angels (-13.5), Philadelphia (-11.5), San Francisco (-11.5)

A few thoughts…


*I like the fact that this review exposes teams like the White Sox–the biggest disappointment on the board–as the underachievers they are. Too often, teams like Chicago, because they were not expected to make the playoffs, are let off the hook when they go badly off the rails.

But you’re telling me a fan on the South Side wouldn’t have had more fun watching an 80-win team, as the White Sox were projected? At least you turn on the TV set each night with a 50/50 chance of seeing a win and you can at least root for a winning season in September. Instead, the Southsiders gave their fans nothing and only the win prop review calls them to account, along with the more heralded disappointments they share company with.

*In a somewhat odd twist, Tampa Bay and Texas each had the exact same win prop at the start of the season. I was 86.5, rather than the 91 wins each posted. But it’s strange the teams who have to go to a one-game playoff on Monday for the last playoff spot were perceived as dead even when the season started.

*The repudiation of those in the Boston Red Sox front office who forced out Terry Francona after the 2011 season is complete. Cleveland is in the group of big overachievers and hosts the wild-card game on Wednesday night. And Boston got back into that group only by hiring John Farrell, who as the pitching coach through 2010, was the next best thing to bringing back Tito. Maybe there’s something to this notion of getting rid of the players rather than the manager. And maybe more teams should take note.

And just how bad did Houston have to be to decisively miss a number that was only 59 to begin with? We can strike a similar tone with the Mariners and Cubs.

Finally, congratulations to Clint Hurdle and the Pittsburgh Pirates. They win the honor of being baseball’s biggest overachiever. This is TheSportsNotebook’s second year of tracking this, and last year’s champion were the Baltimore Orioles. On the flip side, last year’s big loser was the Colorado Rockies, succeeded in 2013 by the White Sox.

My own picks were the very definition of mixed bag. I finished 14-14-2. It’s a downer because in 2012, I had winning records in all three sports where this mode of preseason analysis is used, albeit by narrow margins in all three.

On the positive side, I feel good about myself because I went 6-4 on the ten teams that are on the extremes, while going only 3-7 on those decided by five or less. The breaks just didn’t go my way. Of course if I were betting this for real, my bookie would be happy to let me feel good about myself while he collected his 10 percent juice and made a profit on my .500 record.

MLB Coverage: Reviewing American League Win Props

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Now that the calendar says August, and MLB’s July 31 non-waiver trade deadline has passed, we can set the tone for the season’s final eight-plus weeks. While the playoff races in both the American League and National League are the most important way to do that, there’s one other race that shouldn’t be overlooked—it’s the race each team has against itself to meet their Over/Under win total from the preseason.

A staple of TheSportsNotebook’s preseason MLB coverage, as it is in the NFL and NBA, is to make a pick on each team’s win prop. Here’s an update on how the American League looks. I’ve broken each team down into four categories.

If a team’s winning percentage projects out to missing the win prop by 10-plus games they’re in the Landslide category. It would take a serious collapse or surge to change the final result. If the range is from 5.5-9.5 games it’s listed as Solid. If you’ve got it right, you’re looking good, but it wouldn’t take anything historic for that to change. Teams whose current pace shows them within 1-5 games of the final number are Within The Margin Of Error, to borrow a phrase from political polling. And if a team is either even, or within a half-game, the betting markets are simply Dead On.


Here’s how everyone sorts out in the AL, complete with full disclosure on how TheSportsNotebook’s picks are faring…

LANDSLIDES
Over: Boston, Baltimore, Cleveland
Under: Toronto, ChiSox, LAA
Comment: At the start of the year a friend and I looked at the betting odds for teams to win the AL East and saw both the Red Sox & Orioles at 8-1, and figured the wisest wagering strategy would be to simply take both of them. That’s looking pretty good right now.

Whether Baltimore makes the playoffs or not, the fact that their 89-win pace is beating the market by ten games shows how much doubt Buck Showalter and his troops have played through after the miracle turnaround in the 2012 season.

And guess who the biggest disappointment is? It’s not the Blue Jays or Angels. Nope, the White Sox are missing the number in the wrong direction by a bigger number than anyone in all of baseball. It’s for this reason that I really like this measuring stick. I believe we let teams like Chicago off the hook too easily—the fact they weren’t expected to be playoff contenders (their preseason number was 80.5) isn’t a reason to go completely in the tank, at 61.5.

If you’re a White Sox fan, tell me you wouldn’t feel differently about this season if you could turn on the TV set each night knowing you had a 50/50 chance at winning, and could at least dream of the playoffs.

For the record, Boston’s 14-game cushion on the number is the largest in the American League, though not all of baseball. Although I suppose anyone who remembers 1978, knows the Red Sox can blow a 14-game lead after the All-Star break.

TheSportsNotebook is 4-2 on these teams, misfiring on Tito’s Tribe and Chicago.

SOLID
Over: Tampa Bay, Oakland
Under: None
Comment: Tampa & Oakland are within a half-game of moving into the landslide category. It would be shocking if either goes under, with the Rays only needing to win 87 games, and the A’s shooting for 85. TheSportsNotebook had the Over in both cases, moving me to 6-2 on teams who look good.

MARGIN OF ERROR
Over: Kansas City, Texas
Under: NY Yanks, Houston, Seattle
Comment: Even though Houston’s number was only 59, their current win pace of 54 games has them missing by more than any other team in this group. Kansas City’s 4 ½ ahead of the 78.5 win pace Vegas gave them credit for, and everyone else is within three. For the record, the Yankees need to win 87 games to go Over.

TheSportsNotebook’s showing here is 3-2, and two of the teams I’ve got right are the Astros and Royals, where the margin is strongest. Hopefully at least three of these five battleground states pull through on Election Day.

DEAD ON: Minnesota & Detroit
Comment: The Tigers’ recent hot streak pushed them to a 93-win pace. That would give them the Over on their 92.5 number, although my projections round up. The same goes for Minnesota, who needs to reach 69 wins.

Even though I picked Detroit to win the World Series, I went Under. This seeming contradiction can be explained by the difference in betting strategies. When you pick the league as a whole, you take some chances—in this case that the Tiger bullpen would come through.


When you pick Over/Unders you stay cognizant of how far a team might slip—in this case, I felt if things didn’t work out for Detroit they could slide to the mid-high 80s, a pace they were on most of the year. Whereas when a number is 92.5, there’s not a lot of room to go higher.

The American League side of this has worked out well, with my projected record at 9-4-2, and the bulk of the wins coming on teams whose positions look more secure. Lest this come off as bragging, my National League picks were much more mediocre, at 6-6-3. In that light, please click here to read the National League win prop landscape. 

Reviewing MLB Win Totals Projections

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When TheSportsNotebook did the preseason previews for each major league baseball team, we included the number Las Vegas posted as the Over/Under for win totals. With nine days left in the regular season, let’s check in on who were the winners and losers when it came to meeting the expectations of the betting markets. TheSportsNotebook does this method, not because we’re evaluating everyone’s bets, but because measuring a team by how they did against reasonably informed expectations gives a fair gauge on how we should perceive a team’s season.

With that in mind, I’ve broken the teams into five categories. The easy winners and big losers (teams that are, or likely to end up over or under their number by at least 15 games) are set at one extreme, and then a broad middle class of teams ahead of the curve or behind the curve. As you’ll see in a lot of cases, I’ve played election-night reporter and called the result when it seems pretty obvious. But there is a fifth category of three teams whose final fate is still very much up in the air. Here’s the breakdown…

THE BIG WINNERS
Baltimore (69.5)—The Orioles have already won 88 games and are well-poised
Oakland (72)—Oakland’s on 86 wins and set to beat the number by at least 15, and possibly 20.

AHEAD OF THE GAME
Washington (84)—At 93 wins already, the Nationals could end up one rung higher, though I like to see teams beat their number by at least 15 for the top tier.
Chicago White Sox (74.5)—Chicago’s hold on the AL Central might be slipping, but at 82 wins, they’ve been home free on the Over for some time.
Atlanta (86.5)—Atlanta’s already there, with 88 wins.
Pittsburgh (73.5)—Pittsburgh’s fans are disappointed right now, but the bettors are happy, with 75 wins already in their back pocket.
Cincinnati (88)—The Reds had relatively high expectations this year and with 92 wins, they’ve met them.
San Francisco (87)—Ditto the Giants, with 89 wins already on the books.
Texas (92)—Another terrific job for Ron Washington, as 91-win Texas looks set to go Over and clinch the AL West almost simultaneously.
Seattle (72)—A nice season for the Mariners when measured against expectations. They’re on 71 wins and should clear the number.
San Diego (73.5)—One more win. The next Padre win means you can take the Over ticket and get paid.
NY Mets (72)—The Mets are like Seattle—the kind of team who gets their due credit when we use this framework for evaluation. At 70 wins, they faded from the playoff race, but measuring them against the win totals reminds us of how low the expectations were to begin with.
St. Louis (84)—Only two more wins get the 83-win Cardinals over the hump.
LA Dodgers (79)—Los Angeles is right there with St. Louis in more ways than the wild-card race—they need two wins to push, three to get their people to the window.

BEHIND THE CURVE
Minnesota (72)—At 64-90, I suppose the Twins could close on an eight-game win streak and get a push, but we’re calling this one for the Under.
LA Angels (92)—Another team that can close with a rush—the Halos have one loss to give—and in this case, they really need just such a push to make the playoffs.
Toronto (81)—You could make a case that the 67-win Blue Jays belong a rung lower, but if they play winning baseball the rest of the way, the Jays would at least cut their deficit into single digits.
Detroit (93)—The Tigers have 81 wins and are officially out of the running for the Over, after being sluggish most of the year.
Kansas City (80.5)—At 70-83, the Royals are climbing their way out of the bottom rung, but have still been out of the running to meet expectations for most of the summer.
Cleveland (79)—Even with sub-.500 expectations, the Indians are still a big disappointment, having only 64 wins to date
Philadelphia (92.5)—For much of the year, the Phils were one of the worst in meeting their win total, and at 77-76, they’re still out of it, but at least the final number’s on a pace to respectability.
Chi Cubs (74)—The Cubbies have 59 wins and are well off the pace, but a break-even showing the rest of the way could at least cut their margin under nine.
Houston (64)—You know expectations were bad when you sit on 50-104 and still aren’t even close to the biggest disappointment.
Arizona (86)—The best the Diamondbacks can do is push, and that takes a nine-game win streak to close the season.

THE BIG LOSERS
Boston (90.5)—The Red Sox are on 69 wins. If nothing else, they never gave their bettors false hope. .
Miami (84)—Miami’s only got 66 wins and they’ve been in the tank lately to top it off.
Colorado (81)—With a 59-94 record, the Rockies are currently the league’s biggest disappointment.

UP IN THE AIR
NY Yanks (93.5)—New York is 89-64 coming into Tuesday night, so they’re not home free. You would think they can win five of nine can cash in, but that’s not a guarantee.
Tampa Bay (88)—The Rays are 83-70, and need to go 5-4 to get a push. At least their facing must-win for the playoffs, so Tampa will be motivated to hit the number.
Milwaukee (85)—Milwaukee has to go 6-3 in the last nine to break even and win seven to cash in—pretty much about the same as their playoff hopes.

During the final week of the season, as TheSportsNotebook tracks the playoff race each day, we’ll also track how the Yankees, Rays and Brewers are doing in their pursuit of the number, although in all three cases, what they need for the playoffs is pretty close to what they need to clear the Over.

And in the interests of full disclosure, I made my own picks in the preseason previews on 28 teams, leaving out the Yankees & Red Sox because I loathe the former,  love the latter and refuse to taint it with cold-blooded betting analysis. Of the teams that are in, I’m 14-12, and have the Under with Tampa Bay and Over with Milwaukee. Although in the interests of double full disclosure, the one I liked the most was the Twins and the Over and that one’s on the verge of being history.