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American League Overview

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With the first set of interleague games coming up in the baseball schedule this weekend and teams having at least 35 games under their belt, we’re a little more than 20 percent of the way through the schedule, so now is as good a time as any to have an early season evaluation session. TheSportsNotebook takes a concise look at what each team has done and what we might expect going forward.

This post focuses on the American League. Click here for the National League overview, and please also check the individual reports that were run yesterday, with an All-Star ballot put together for both the AL & NL.

AL EAST

Baltimore (23-14): The Orioles haven’t had a bullpen that was really effective since B.J. Ryan up and left for Toronto as a ridiculously overpaid free agent following the 2005 season. Ryan blew out his elbow, but the Orioles never recovered either. Until this season. With Jim Johnson having a fantastic season as a closer—and he has been a reliably consistent setup man for five years now and Buck Showalter fitting other pieces into place, you can no longer feel good if you’re down a run in Baltimore after six.

Offensively, Matt Wieters and Adam Jones are living up to their potential as the young breakout stars, while Wei-Yin Chen has been a boon to the pitching staff, including last night when he beat C.C. Sabathia in Camden Yards.  Now the question is do the O’s keep it going? Well, they’re playing at a 101-win pace and I don’t think anyone expects that to keep going, nor do people expect them to win the AL East. But be a contender? If Nick Markakis can pick up his offense, along with J.J. Hardy and Mark Reynolds, that can help cushion when inevitable slumps come from the two young stars and Brian Matusz can continue his recover in the starting rotation, then yes, the Orioles can hang around.

 

Tampa Bay (23-14): With the injury to Mariano Rivera, the implosion of the Red Sox and the presumed fade of Baltimore, it’s the Rays who are the favorite to win this division and that’s appropriate. Like the Orioles, Tampa has put together a bullpen they has vastly outperformed expectations, with Fernando Rodney making the most of his opportunity at the back end.

The Rays are dealing with injuries right now, with Evan Longoria out for another 2-3 weeks and Desmond Jennings also on the DL. Offensively, they do a good job drawing walks, but need more guys who can hit—Carlos Pena’s .391 slugging percentage is  the most obvious evidence of this problem. But at the end of the day, this rotation comes along to James Shields, David Price and Jeremy Hellickson—all having good years that are sustainable and if Matt Moore gets settled in as a rookie, the Rays will wear the rest of the AL East down.

NY Yankees (20-16): Not only is Rivera out for the year, but now replacement David Robertson has hit the disabled list. It was supposed to be bullpen depth combined with offense that bailed out a Yankee rotation that had serious problems behind Sabathia. But that depth is gone—even if Rafael Soriano stabilizes the ninth inning. The pitching problems have gotten worse, with the season-ending injury to Michael Pineda, the continued struggles of Phil Hughes and the demotion of Freddy Garcia. Even the offense, while hardly a problem at #3 in the American League scoring runs isn’t up to its usual standards. Mark Teixeira’s notorious April slumps have now extended into mid-May and Robinson Cano has yet to heat up. Derek Jeter’s been as valuable to the Yanks this season as ever, and the reason they’re still on a pace to win 90 games and would make the wild-card game if the season ended today.  Still, it’s difficult to see this team, as presently constructed exceeding the 90-win level.

Toronto (19-18): It’s no surprise to see the Jays a little over .500, but if they don’t make the playoffs this year it’s a real missed opportunity, given the problems in New York and Boston, and given that Toronto is getting good starting pitching, with Brandon Morrow and Henderson Alvarez being excellent, and Ricky Romero doing his usual solid job. But they have got to get some guys hitting. Hot young prospects like Brett Lawrie and J.P. Arencibia have to realize how much the team needs them to reach their potential. The same goes for Colby Rasmus, who’s been a disaster since coming over St. Louis (Note to self: If I ever again disagree with a future Hall of Fame manager like Tony LaRussa on a player, it’s a good bet that I’m the one who’s going to be proven wrong). Edwin Encarcion is the only one who’s hitting and Jose Bautista is getting the Bonds treatment and being pitched around. And Bautista’s not doing anything with the pitches he does get, batting only a buck-98. The moment is there for Toronto to step up into the playoffs and even compete for the AL East title, but these hitters have got to perform.

Boston (17-19): A recent mini-surge against the AL Central and Seattle has enabled Boston to keep themselves afloat, but the starting pitching is a big problem. Clay Bucholz has been an absolute disaster with an 8.31 ERA and the reality is that Bucholz may not make it back, at least this season. Remember, the kid broke a bone in his back last year. Even if it’s healed, how did that affect his mechanics or his comfort level at turning it loose? I’m not saying he’s done, but he might need more than spring training to get himself really comfortable again. The bullpen’s struggles are much better documented, although that’s gradually starting to stabilize—it’s hardly a team strength, but the complete chaos that ensued from the seventh inning on during April looks to be a thing of the past as Bobby Valentine settles on roles.

Felix Doubront and Daniel Bard have pitched reasonably well at the back end, but without Bucholz, with Josh Beckett being inconsistent and Jon Lester looking more like a middle-of-the-rotation guy, the Red Sox have not had the 1-2-3 punch at the top that was supposed to be the focal point of the season and I don’t take it for granted that any of that will come around at a level higher than it is right now. But know this—if it does, the Sox are still scoring runs like they did in the heyday, with only Texas being more proficient in the American League. And that’s with young players like Will Middlebrooks and Danny Nava stepping in for the wounded Jacoby Ellsbury and Kevin Youkilis.

AL CENTRAL

Cleveland (20-16): Manny Acta’s pitching staff has to do a better job, and quickly, because even in a soft division, being 10th in the American League in ERA won’t cut it. Justin Masterson and Ubaldo Jiminez have ERAs over 5. The bullpen that gave such good depth a year ago has been shaky this time. And what’s worse for the Tribe is how much can you really count on summer improvements? Sure, Masterson will pitch better, but Jiminez has had three good months in the course of his career—the first part of 2010 when he dominated in Colorado. And even given Masterson the benefit of the doubt, we have to also factor in that Derek Lowe’s 2.05 ERA will inevitably rise. So where does the overall team improvement come from? The Indians were projected by Las Vegas as a 79-win team at the start of the season. They might lead the pack right now, but I don’t see a reason to think that long-term assessment is all that off. Especially when you have bats like third baseman Jack Hannahan’s also destined to cool off.

Detroit (18-18): I think the worst is past the Tigers for now. Doug Fister, their #2 starter is back from the disabled list and looked very good in his first two starts. Rookie Drew Smyly has been great, and even if he comes down to earth, something else that will come down is Max Scherzer’s ERA of 6.26. Then there’s some guy named Verlander who keeps getting the ball every fifth day. The bullpen’s still a concern, but no more than last year when they eventually pulled away from Cleveland. And on offense, after an early part of the schedule where Miguel Cabrera, Prince Fielder and Austin Jackson were the only ones that hit, we’ve started to see some gradual warming up for Jhonny Peralta and Alex Avila. I smell a big run by the Tigers here between now and the All-Star break to open this division up.

ChiSox (17-20): If they can get some offensive help for Paul Konerko and Adam Dunn, the White Sox can push over .500 and stay in contention. Dunn may strike out a lot, but his power and ability to draw walks has returned. Alejandra de Aza has stepped up with a good year the plate, and the .363 on-base percentage needs to continue, while other players in the lineup start getting batting averages over .200. If that happens, Jake Peavy’s pitching well again, in spite of Monday’s disaster against Detroit. And I would expect John Danks to come around. Why? Because I just gave up on Danks in my Fantasy League and cut him, meaning he’s about to get picked up by some other owner and rip off five straight wins. But seriously, he and Gavin Floyd could both get it going. Then Philip Humber just has to return to being the pitcher he was prior to his perfect game, which was a steady underrated arm who could stabilize a rotation. Since that historic day in Seattle in April, he’s just not pitched well. But if you’re looking for a team that could really give Detroit a run, the White Sox are a better bet than the Indians. I don’t necessarily believe in the SouthSiders, but the starting pitching potential at least gives them an upside.

Kansas City (15-20): This is another team not to go to sleep on. They overcame a horrific 0-10 homestand in early April, have steadied the ship and have Alex Gordon, Mike Moustakas and Billy Butler all swinging good bats. Even with the loss of Joakim Soria, manager Ned Yost has put together a bullpen that can finish games. As usual, the issue is starting pitching. Danny Duffy had gotten off to a nice start and then hit the disabled list with an elbow problem. At least he’ll be back in a couple weeks. Luke Hochevar continues to disappoint, as does Jonathan Sanchez, who hit the DL himself. Within the everyday lineup, the Royals need first baseman Eric Hosmer to acclimate himself to big-league pitching as well as Moustakas on the other side of the infield has.

Minnesota (10-26): My early-season prediction that the Twins beating the Las Vegas number of 73.5 wins was the surest bet of March is looking like the single most foolish prediction I’ve made this year…and this in a year where I picked Long Beach State to reach the Final Four. Josh Willingham has been a quality pickup from Oakland, hitting for both power and average. Joe Mauer at least his ability to get on base back, if not his own power stroke. Denard Span’s had a pretty good year thus far. But Justin Morneau’s hurt, no one else is doing anything at all and other than recent call-up Scott Diamond, the pitching has been a complete disaster. Minnesota’s last in the AL in runs scored, last in ERA and they’ve made that formula work to a pace that will them at 45 wins by year’s end. It’s unfortunate for Ron Gardenhire, who’s done a good job here for a long time, but I’ll be surprised if he’s in the dugout for Opening Day next year (and as a Red Sox fan, positively furious if the Sox don’t call him).

 

AL WEST

Texas (23-14): There is absolutely nothing this team doesn’t do extremely well. You’ve heard about Josh Hamilton and he deserves to be the MVP if the season ended today. But let’s also single out for praise Elvis Andrus, the shortstop who wields a sharp glove and has a .398 on-base percentage to set the table for Hamilton. Or for Adrian Beltre, who’s slugging over .500. Or Mike Napoli’s who’s carving up pitchers for both average and power. Or for the bullpen, where Alexi Ogando is the best of a group that’s deep and has a revitalized Joe Nathan closing. And for the starting pitching, where Yu Darvish has met the burden of the hype and with a 2.84 ERA in a hitter’s park, looks like the ace this staff needs.

Oakland (19-18): The A’s playing a bit over .500 is a nice early story, but I find it hard to see where it lasts. While the pitching is #2 in the AL in ERA, Brandon McCarthy is the only one who really looks the part. Bartolo Colon is hitting that spot in the year where he should pull a hamstring and he’s been mediocre as it is. Tyson Ross is pitching poorly and the bullpen hasn’t settled on roles yet. Offensively, Josh Reddick has been the complete package in right field, and the A’s might reasonably expect more from Yoenis Cespedes in center and Seth Smith in left, but not enough to substantially move their #13 spot in the AL. Their preseason Vegas win projection was 71.5, and the current pace is for 83 wins. I can see Oakland’s pitching being good enough to beat that preseason Over/Under, but not to put this team over .500.

LA Angels (16-21): I don’t know if you knew this, but Albert Pujols only has one home run this year after a long drought into May. I also don’t know if you knew this, but the odds say he gets on a good hot streak some time soon. See the brilliant analysis we come up with here at TheSportsNotebook, in the mold of Stephen A. Smith?  The Angels have started to slowly better baseball this month and in addition to Pujols, Dan Haren has struggled in the rotation with a 4.41 ERA. If you just get these two stars to return to previous levels, then LAA can get hot. And in spite of their struggles, if they can answer Texas’ hot start with 6-7 laser-hot weeks of their own, the AL West is back to being a coin flip and the Angels would shoot past other contenders for the wild-card spots. That’s what I expect to happen.

Seattle (16-22):  King Felix and Jason Vargas have given the Mariners solid starting pitching at the top of the rotation and Hernandez can win another Cy Young Award this year. Third baseman Kyle Seagar is slugging .475, showing some nice pop and liberating M’s fans from watching Chone Figgins take the field anymore. Second baseman Dustin Ackley has started to hit after a slow start. Brandon League is a solid closer. But after that? Inconsistency in the starting pitching, instability in the bullpen and nothing on offense. The current pace is for 68 wins. I suppose I could see the number rising into the low 70s, but the Mariners are not about to surprise anyone.

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MAY MULLIGANS: In my preseason picks, I had the Yankees, Tigers and Angels winning the divisions, with the Rangers-Jays for the wild-card game. I’m not throwing in the towel on the Angels just yet. We’ll revisit it at the All-Star break. The only area I’m taking a May Mulligan on is the AL East, where a combination of Rivera’s injury and Tampa’s own bullpen answering my concerns means I’m vaulting the Rays into the division winner slot, and dropping the Yanks to third, where they join the rival Red Sox in missing the playoffs. LAA’s still the pick to win the pennant and ultimately the World Series—don’t laugh, they’re closer to first place right now than the Cardinals were to the wild-card at the end of last August.

MLB March Report: Minnesota Twins

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The Minnesota Twins had been on a roll as baseball’s most overachieving franchise. The team that was slated for contraction in 2002 as part of the last really serious players-owners dispute in MLB, has seven winning seasons in the nine years Ron Gardenhire has managed the club, and six of those have ended with an AL Central division title. And that snapshot doesn’t even include Tom Kelly’s even more successful tenure, with World Series wins in 1987 and 1991. But it came crashing down hard last year, as the club was hit by injuries to key players, and those that were on the field seemed to completely lose the grasp of sound fundamental play, a hallmark of the Twins in the recent era. They finished 63-99. So was that an aberration, or a sign that the old era is ending? TheSportsNotebook takes a look at the 2012 Twins, on the basis of their ability to get on base, hit for power, starting pitching and relief pitching.

ABILITY TO GET ON BASE: In terms of a pure on-base igniter for the lineup, Gardenhire has problems. What would help the most is if centerfielder Denard Span would return to the form of 2009 when he had an OBP of .392. But he’s lost 65-70 points on that number each of the last two years, and most alarmingly, struggled with concussion problems. Third baseman Danny Valencia played extremely well in 2010, both getting on base and even mixing in a little power to the alleys. That was in 300 at-bats. With full-time duty last year, Valencia did not play well. Leftfielder Ben Revere didn’t produce last year, but he’s only 23 years and is a valued prospect. His development this season will be crucial. If nothing else, Minnesota picked up veteran shortstop Jamey Carroll from the Dodgers. He may be 38 years old and been forced out by the emergence of young Dee Gordon in LA, but his on-base percentages are consistently over .350. Carroll is reliable. Span, Valencia and Revere are the keys to focus on here.

POWER: Now we come to the big boys, with Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau. When healthy, they’re the modern-day M&M boys. Mauer struggled with leg problems last year and couldn’t get his strength up to par, but the reports from spring training are good. When he’s healthy he hits a decent number of home runs, drives the ball in the gaps and is a huge contributor to the on-base issue discussed above. When healthy, and given the offensive problems most teams have at catcher, Mauer is usually my default choice for MVP if he’s healthy. Morneau, like Mauer, has an MVP award on his shelf and is one of the game’s top power hitters. His health, related to concussion problems is the bigger concern in the Twin Cities. He’s ready to go for Opening Day, but he’s been battling these symptoms for a long time—his absence down the stretch of 2010 cost the team any shot they might have had at advancing in the playoffs, and he struggled in part-time duty a year ago. For support for the two big guns, the Twins may have let Michael Cuddyer walk via free agency, but Josh Willingham is a pretty good replacement. He had respectable power and could get on base fairly consistently for six years in Florida and Washington before a bad year in Oakland sunk him  in ’11. Come to think of it, Willingham is kind of a microcosm of his new team in that regard—hoping 2011 was just a bad dream.

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STARTING PITCHING: Carl Pavano is listed as the #1 starter, and ever since he completed his four-year stint of robbing the Yankees blind while rarely pitching for them, he’s gotten his career back on track. You know I loathe all things Pinstriped, but Pavano’s insistence on hanging out on the DL in New York while collecting $40 million was a form of highway robbery that most mob capos would have been too embarrassed to pull. But over three years , he’s now become reliable for taking his turn, chewing up 200 innings a year and being respectable in the ERA department. He’s definitely an asset to the club, although ideally you do not want him as your ace. But until Francisco Liriano stays healthy and consistent—he’s only done both once since 2006 and it’s no coincidence that was 2010 when the team won 94 games and played its best baseball of the Gardenhire era. Scott Baker had his best ERA a year ago at 3.14. Nick Blackburn and Jason Marquis are back-end innings-eaters and as long as you don’t need more than that from either, they suit a staff’s purposes just fine. Overall, this is a group that’s well-suited to stay consistent over the long haul. But the lack of a true ace was the biggest hindrance to why the best teams under Gardenhire couldn’t reach the World Series, and now with Detroit on the rise in the AL Central, it may be a hindrance to just getting back to the postseason.

RELIEF PITCHING: Matt Capps is in the closer’s role, and while he really struggled a year ago, blowing nine of his 24 save opportunities, the previous two years he closed out 69 of 80 chances. The pen in front of the closer has long been a key Minnesota strength. It can be this year, but Gardenhire will have to work on piecing together a combination. Glen Perkins’ posted a 2.48 ERA last year after being in 5s the previous two seasons. Brian Duensing is an effective reliever who looked like he might be an effective starter before last season showed that wasn’t going to work. If nothing else, he’s back in a role this year where we know he can be effective. Beyond this, Anthony Swarzak and Alex Burnett, both in their mid-20s need to develop.

LAS VEGAS OVER/UNDER WIN TOTAL—72: I understand where Vegas is coming from in setting the number here. To me it looks really low, but it does presume a nine-game improvement off last season, which is reflective of a belief in the betting markets that at least a certain portion of the 2011 disaster was just a bad aberration. But I still can’t over the reverse side, which says that a team which was winning anywhere from 85-94 games for a lot longer than they were winning 63, deserves a little more respect. Even if Morneau doesn’t come back healthy—and I think that’s the biggest variable—the Twins can beat this number just by getting back to playing good, sharp baseball and I think Gardenhire will demand that. If Morneau is back, Minnesota will pressure Detroit in the AL Central. Either way, I’m taking the Over with strong confidence.