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NFL Analysis: Will Matt Ryan Get Any Help In Atlanta?

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The story of the Atlanta Falcons in the 2012 season is Exhibit A as to why constantly evaluating quarterbacks by their W-L record, at the expense of the team concept, is just stupidity. The Falcons are not a team that should have gotten to within a couple plays of the Super Bowl. But through the excellence of quarterback Matt Ryan, they nearly made it.

It’s not that Ryan didn’t have help. The passing game has playmakers, with Julio Jones and Roddy White both producing well over 1,000 yards apiece. Tony Gonzalez caught 93 passes from his tight end spot, and the 37-year-old was persuaded to postpone his retirement plans to come back for a shot at the brass ring. The Falcon front office has done a good job of giving Ryan targets to play catch with, but they haven’t done much for him beyond that.


Atlanta’s running game was awful, as Michael Turner finally went past his expiration date in the backfield. The team brought in Stephen Jackson, who rushed for over a 1,000 yards with the St. Louis Rams to try and improve. I’m sure there will be at least a little bit of improvement, but generally, offensive lineman that are as accustomed to backpedaling as often as Atlanta’s front five does in pass protection have a harder time firing out on run blocks.

The Falcon defense was bad, but most any measurement. They were mediocre in allowing completion percentage by opposing quarterbacks. This can be tolerated if the defense is good at closing off yards after the catch, but Atlanta ranks even lower in yards-per-pass. There’s no pass rush, as defensive end John Abraham hit his own past-due date at the same time Turner did. Nor is Atlanta any better at defending the run.

Like the offense, the organization did go out and look for veteran help to try and change the dynamic. They brought in Osi Umenyiora from the Giants. But Umenyiora had a rather pedestrian six sacks last year and he’s 31-years-old. I have no problem with the Falcons giving him a shot, and it’s better than the options they had, but we need to be realistic about what the expectations are.

When you look at the Atlanta Falcons in context it’s impossible to conclude anything but that Matt Ryan is the reason they’re even in the playoff picture, rather than the reason they aren’t advancing to the Super Bowl.

I suppose one can always fall back on the Skip Bayless routine of “the job of the quarterback is to win games” and refuse to broach any alternative explanation. That works for one whose brain can’t handle more than one concept at a time, but I’m not buying it. The question now is whether the Falcons have improved enough to take that next step.

Las Vegas is not optimistic, at least both on the team’s Over/Under win prop. Atlanta is posted at 9.5, not bad, but not Super Bowl-caliber. I think this number looks good, reflecting the flaws of the team overall, while acknowledging Ryan’s ability to make them look better than they really are.

I hate to do this, because I hate for this site’s NFL analysis to ever defer to the Cult of the Quarterback in any circumstance, but I’m picking Atlanta to go Over, based on Ryan. I can’t see this team coming any worse than 9-7, so that’s a pretty tight fit on the Under side. They have the look of a 10-6 team, maybe 11-5 if things break right, thanks to Ryan. And we have to respect the fact they won 13 games a year ago, so it seems to me that the Over is the percentage move. 

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NFL Team Previews: Atlanta Falcons

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Since Atlanta Falcons’ head coach Mike Smith came to town in 2008, the city has been given a football winner. The Falcons have won 43 games over the last four regular seasons, they’ve been to the playoffs three times and won the NFC South once. But one thing is missing and that’s a postseason victory. Can Atlanta make 2012 the year they continue the success of the Smith era and then build on it with January success? TheSportsNotebook breaks down the Atlanta Falcons…

OFFENSE: This team’s skill position talent is fit for a Fantasy League, with Matt Ryan settled in on the second tier of quarterbacks, right below the elite of Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees and Tom Brady. Ryan has premier targets in Roddy White and Julio Jones, who can catch the ball on possession-type routes and also stretch the field. 36-year-old tight end Tony Gonzalez still has gas in the tank, and produced 875 receiving yards last year. Michael Turner is now 30-years-old at running back, but he’s still as good as anyone at running between the tackles and making the first man miss. Then add in the fact that all this talent plays in a nice climate-controlled dome and you have the formula for a lot of points.

It’s getting the blocking to enable these playmakers to work their magic that’s going to be Smith’s challenge. The Atlanta offensive line is spotty, soft at the left tackle spot and a problem at one of the guards. The players they have that are good—veteran center Todd McClure, left guard Justin Blalock and right tackle Tyson Clabo aren’t outstanding. So you have a line with no obvious strengths and some clear weaknesses.

DEFENSE: The defense has two obvious strengths and in a passing-oriented league, it doesn’t get much better than having a potentially great front four and two outstanding corners. Atlanta needs Ray Edwards to step it up at defensive end after a disappointing ’11 season where he registered just 3.5 sacks, but Edwards is only 27-years-old and should be able to bounce back. You can pair him up with John Abraham, another fine pass rusher at the opposite end. Then Justin Babineaux can bring pressure from the interior. Even the one soft spot, tackle Corey Peters, is only 24 and can make strides forward this season. On the corners, you’ve got Brent Grimes and new acquisition Asante Samuel, each able to cover man on man.

When you have these kinds of playmakers at the key spots, it becomes much easier to fill in the other spots. Sean Witherspoon does a nice job getting pressure from his weakside linebacker post, and there’s basic competence at safety from William Moore and Thomas DeCoud. The spot it would be nice to see improvement at would be middle linebacker, where Akeem Dent is 24-years-old and still developing his ability to read, react and cover at an NFL level.

LAS VEGAS OVER/UNDER WIN PROJECTION: 9—I’m got some trepidations over the Falcons this year. Last year’s playoff flameout, a 24-2 loss in New York, was a big disappointment and you wonder if there comes a point where the postseason disappointments become a psychological burden in the regular season. But if you look at the talent on hand, Atlanta’s got the horses and that same disappointment can also be a motivator. I’m going Over.